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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs? (Moderator: Dereich)
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TNF
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« Reply #3925 on: December 28, 2013, 11:02:09 AM »

2004



President George W. Bush of Texas and Vice President Richard B. "Dick" Cheney of Wyoming (Republican Party): 48.73% (249 electoral votes)
Senator John F. Kerry of Massachusetts and Senator John R. Edwards of North Carolina (Democratic Party): 50.26% (289 electoral votes)

2008



President John F. Kerry of Massachusetts and Vice President John R. Edwards of North Carolina (Democratic Party): 45.86% (221 electoral votes)
Senator John S. McCain III of Arizona and Senator Joseph I. "Joe" Lieberman of Connecticut (Republican Party): 52.60% (317 electoral votes)

2012



President John S. McCain III of Arizona and Vice President Joseph I. "Joe" Lieberman of Connecticut (Republican Party): 51.15% (331 electoral votes)
Senator Barack H. Obama of Illinois and Senator Joseph R. "Joe" Biden of Delaware (Democratic Party): 47.01% (207 electoral votes)
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NHI
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #3926 on: December 28, 2013, 03:47:34 PM »

Vice Pres. Al Gore/Sen. Joe Lieberman: 292 (48.4%)
Gov. George Bush/Sec. Dick Cheney: 246 (47.9%)

Pres. Al Gore/Vice Pres. Joe Lieberman: 280 (50.7%)
Sen. John McCain/Sen. Bill Frist: 258 (48.3%)

Gov. Jeb Bush/Sen. Olympia Snowe: 311 (52.9%)
Sec. John Kerry/Sen. Ron Wyden: 227 (45.7%)

Pres. Jeb Bush/Vice Pres. Olympia Snowe: 289 (50.0%)
Sen. Hillary Clinton/Sen. Mark Warner: 249 (48.7%)

Sen. Barack Obama/Sen. Amy Klobuchar: 350 (52.8%)
Vice Pres. Olympia Snowe/Sec. Jon Huntsman: 188 (41.3%)
Sen. Rand Paul/Gov. Gary Johnson: 0 (4.1%)
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badgate
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #3927 on: December 29, 2013, 05:17:22 AM »
« Edited: December 31, 2013, 03:48:08 AM by badgate »



1968

Vice President Hubert H. Humphrey / Texas Governor John Connally - 402
Frmr. Vice President Richard Nixon / Maryland Governor Spiro Agnew - 77
Albama Governor George Wallace / South Carolina Senator Strom Thurmond - 59




1972


President Hubert H. Humphrey / Vice President John Connally - 270
California Governor Ronald Reagan / Michigan Governor George Romney - 268




1976


Vice President John Connally / Georgia Governor James Carter - 221
Minority Leader Gerald Ford / New York Governor Nelson Rockefeller - 317




1980


New York Senator Robert Kennedy / Georgia Governor James E. Carter - 279
President Gerald Ford / Vice President Nelson Rockefeller - 259




1984


President Robert Kennedy / Vice President James E. Carter - 484
Virginia Televangelist Pat Robertson / Kansas Senator Bob Dole - 54




1988


Vice President James E. Carter / Massachusetts Governor Mike Dukakis - 275
Connecticut Governor George H. W. Bush / Indiana Senator Dan Quayle - 263





1992


President James E. Carter / Vice President Mike Dukakis - 157
New York Congressman Jack Kemp / Virginia Attorney General Jim Gilmore - 79
Independent Ross Perot / James Stockdale - 302




1996


Arkansas Governor Bill Clinton / Tennessee Senator Al Gore, Jr. - 271
Arizona Senator John McCain / Florida Governor Jeb Bush - 161
President Ross Perot / Vice President James Stockdale - 106




2000


President Bill Clinton / Vice President Al Gore, Jr. - 342
Maine Senator Olympia Snowe / Utah Governor Mike Leavitt - 196





2004


Vice President Al Gore, Jr. / New Hampshire Governor Jeanne Shaheen - 264
Texas Governor George W. Bush / Frmr. CIA Director Dick Cheney - 274





2008


Majority Leader Barack Obama / Vermont Governor Howard Dean - 353
President George W. Bush / Vice President Dick Cheney - 185





2012


President Barack Obama / Vice President Howard Dean - 418
Alaska Governor Sarah Palin / Frmr. Senator Rick Santorum - 120




2016


Vice President Howard Dean / Wisconsin Senator Tammy Baldwin - 245
New Jersey Governor Christopher Christie / New Hampshire Senator Kelly Ayotte - 293
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DKrol
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« Reply #3928 on: December 29, 2013, 12:08:30 PM »

1976


Vice President John Connally / Georgia Governor James Carter - 221
Ohio Senator Gerald Ford / New York Governor Nelson Rockefeller - 317


Why is Ford suddenly from Ohio?
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badgate
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #3929 on: December 29, 2013, 09:13:44 PM »

1976


Vice President John Connally / Georgia Governor James Carter - 221
Ohio Senator Gerald Ford / New York Governor Nelson Rockefeller - 317


Why is Ford suddenly from Ohio?

Lmao. For years I have been under the impression he was an Ohio Senator before being made VP.
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DKrol
dkrolga
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« Reply #3930 on: December 29, 2013, 09:23:34 PM »

1976


Vice President John Connally / Georgia Governor James Carter - 221
Ohio Senator Gerald Ford / New York Governor Nelson Rockefeller - 317


Why is Ford suddenly from Ohio?

Lmao. For years I have been under the impression he was an Ohio Senator before being made VP.

Nope, Michigan Congressman
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badgate
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #3931 on: December 30, 2013, 05:59:35 PM »
« Edited: December 30, 2013, 06:02:40 PM by badgate »

^Thanks, that's one of my favorites for the series too. Also the Democratic 1984 landslide


A little bit of description I wanted to add to 1992 but couldn't bc of character limit:
Strong numbers for Perot make many Republicans hesitant to jump in. Kemp's original choice, the young Senator John McCain, declines (McCain declined privately, but it became public around the time of the RNC). Kemp persuades Virginia Attorney General Jim Gilmore to be on the ticket.
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badgate
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #3932 on: December 31, 2013, 12:07:17 AM »
« Edited: December 31, 2013, 12:12:00 AM by badgate »

Millenials Rise Up


2016


Vice President Joseph Biden / Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar - 245
New Jersey Governor Christopher Christie / New Hampshire Senator Kelly Ayotte - 293




2020


New York Governor Andrew Cuomo / Texas Governor Julian Castro - 284
President Chris Christie / Vice President Kelly Ayotte - 254




2024


President Andrew Cuomo / Vice President Julian Castro - ~342
Majority Leader Paul Ryan / Florida Governor Marco Rubio - ~196




2028


Vice President Julian Castro / Frmr. Georgia Governor Jason Carter - ~241
Utah Senator Mia Love / Pennsylvania Governor Patrick Toomey - ~297




2032


Frmr. Georgia Governor Jason Carter / Colorado Senator Michael Bennett - 172
President Mia Love / Vice President Patrick Toomey - 366




2036


Texas Senator Joaquin Castro / Kentucky Governor Adam Edelen - 362
Michigan Senator Terri Land / South Carolina Senator Tim Scott - 176




2036


President Joaquin Castro / Vice President Adam Edelin - 475
Oklahoma Senator Todd Lamb / Illinois Congressman Aaron Schock - 63
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Brewer
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« Reply #3933 on: December 31, 2013, 12:34:15 AM »

Aww. Aaron Schock is still a Congressman in 2036? Tongue
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badgate
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« Reply #3934 on: December 31, 2013, 12:36:42 AM »

Aww. Aaron Schock is still a Congressman in 2036? Tongue


Poor guy.
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NHI
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« Reply #3935 on: December 31, 2013, 09:00:37 AM »
« Edited: December 31, 2013, 12:00:43 PM by NHI »


Vice Pres. Joe Biden/Gov. Brian Schweitzer: 281 (49.61%)
Sen. Marco Rubio/Sec. Condoleezza Rice: 257 (48.75%)

Close States:

OH: 49.83% 49.04% (D)
VA: 49.70% 48.55% (D)
CO: 49.72% 48.94% (D)
NV: 49.91% 48.89% (D)
NH: 49.37% 49.10% (R)
IA: 49.65% 49.24% (D)
PA: 50.89% 47.91% (D)
FL: 50.71% 48.32% (R)
MT: 49.95% 48.17% (R)

Gov. Susana Martinez/Gov. Jon Huntsman: 277 (49.69%)
Vice Pres. Brian Schweitzer/Sen. Kirsten Gilibrand: 261 (48.71%)

Close States:

NH: 49.54% 49.32% (D)
CO: 49.50% 49.01% (R)
NV: 49.51% 49.17% (D)
VA: 49.62% 49.11% (R)
OH: 50.01% 49.00% (R)
MT: 50.50% 48.79% (D)
NM: 50.89% 48.59% (R)
FL:  51.00% 47.14% (R)

Pres. Susana Martinez/Vice Pres. Jon Huntsman: 279 (50.07%)
Sen. Kirsten Gilibrand/Sen. Tim Kaine: 259 (48.54%)

Close States:

VA: 49.51% 49.30% (D)
NV: 49.71% 49.04% (R)
CO: 50.45% 48.77% (R)
IA:  50.01% 48.00% (R)
NH: 50.17% 48.09% (R)

Gov. George P. Bush/Gov. Kelly Ayotte: 271 (49.21%)
Sen. Julian Castro/Sen. Martin Heinrich: 267 (49.14%)

Close States:

VA: 49.51% 49.27% (D)
MN: 49.65% 49.45% (R)
WI: 49.60% 49.21% (R)
NV: 49.56% 49.00% (D)
AZ: 50.00% 49.00% (D)
TX: 50.06% 48.69% (R)
NH: 50.65% 48.09% (R)
CO: 50.69% 48.05% (R)
OH: 50.79% 47.91% (R)
FL: 50.81% 47.88% (R)
NM: 51.07% 47.22% (D)

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I Will Not Be Wrong
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« Reply #3936 on: January 03, 2014, 03:16:44 PM »


R 277-261
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I Will Not Be Wrong
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« Reply #3937 on: January 03, 2014, 03:28:47 PM »


R 275-263
What would cause this?
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I Will Not Be Wrong
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« Reply #3938 on: January 03, 2014, 03:43:58 PM »


R 274-264
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #3939 on: January 05, 2014, 09:11:57 PM »


Demographic change catches up with the Deep South.  The Republican candidate moderates on social issues and immigration.  As a result, the Evangelical base stays home while swing voters go heavily R.
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badgate
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« Reply #3940 on: January 06, 2014, 03:48:28 AM »
« Edited: January 06, 2014, 05:02:02 AM by badgate »

1952


Illinois Governor Adlai Stevenson / Alabama Senator John Sparkman - 267
New Yorker Dwight Eisenhower / California Senator Richard Nixon - 264




1956


President Adlai Stevenson / Vice President John Sparkman - 101
California Senator Richard Nixon / Massachusetts Governor Henry Cabot Lodge, Jr. - 430




1960


New York Senator Robert F. Kennedy / Texas Senator Lyndon B. Johnson - 272
President Richard Nixon / Vice President Spiro Agnew - 265





1964


President Robert F. Kennedy / Senator Hubert H. Humphrey - 404
Arizona Senator Barry Goldwater / New York Congressman William E. Miller - 134




1968
The Southern Democrats seize control of the convention in a dramatic move, nominating John Connally and George Wallace. Humphrey runs as an independent with the express goal of splitting the vote so that Congress could elect him.


Texas Governor John Connally / Alabama Governor George Wallace - 187
New York Governor Nelson Rockefeller / California Governor Ronald Reagan - 246
Vice President Hubert H. Humphrey / Maine Governor Edmund Muskie - 105




1968 (House Vote)


Vice President Hubert H. Humphrey - 27
New York Governor Nelson Rockefeller - 20
Alabama Governor George Wallace - 3
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I Will Not Be Wrong
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« Reply #3941 on: January 06, 2014, 06:42:27 PM »

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I Will Not Be Wrong
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« Reply #3942 on: January 06, 2014, 06:48:26 PM »

A near mirror image of the 1960 election.
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I Will Not Be Wrong
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« Reply #3943 on: January 06, 2014, 06:54:32 PM »

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I Will Not Be Wrong
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« Reply #3944 on: January 06, 2014, 08:14:26 PM »
« Edited: January 06, 2014, 08:20:29 PM by outofbox6 »

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I Will Not Be Wrong
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« Reply #3945 on: January 06, 2014, 08:20:41 PM »

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I Will Not Be Wrong
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« Reply #3946 on: January 06, 2014, 08:24:23 PM »

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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #3947 on: January 07, 2014, 06:55:15 PM »

2008 without the financial crisis:



Obama 291 (50%)/McCain 247 (48%)

Toughest calls were OH, VA and whether Obama gets 60% in CA.
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NHI
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #3948 on: January 07, 2014, 08:21:42 PM »

John McCain/George W. Bush: 351 (51.1%)
Bill Bradley/John Kerry: 187 (45.9%)
Other: 0 (3.0%)

John McCain/George W. Bush: 409 (56.0%)
Howard Dean/Wesley Clark: 129 (42.7%)
Other: 0 (1.3%)

Vice Pres. George W. Bush/ Gov. Mitt Romney: 290 (49.87%)
Sen. Hillary Clinton/ Sen. John Kerry: 248 (48.55%)
Other: 0 (1.85%)

Gov. Brian Schweitzer/Sen. Amy Klobuchar: 278 (50.0%)
Pres. George W. Bush/ Vice Pres. Mitt Romney: 260 (48.5%)
Other: 0 (1.5%)

Pres. Brian Schweitzer/ Vice Pres. Amy Klobuchar: 335 (52.6%)
Gov. Mike Huckabee/Mayor Rudy Giuliani: 203 (45.8%)
Other: 0 (1.6%)

Vice Pres. Amy Klobuchar/Sen. Mark Warner: 284 (50.2%)
Sen. John Thune/ Gov.Charlie Crist: 254 (48.4%)
Other: 0 (1.4%)

Kelly Ayotte/Jon Huntsman 279 (50.0%)
Amy Klobuchar/Mark Warner: 259 (48.7%)
Other: 0 (1.3%)

Pres. Kelly Ayotte/Vice Pres. Jon Huntsman 320 (51.7%)
Gov. Gavin Newsom/Sen. Joseph Kennedy: 218 (46.9%)
Other: 0 (1.4%)
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MATTROSE94
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« Reply #3949 on: January 08, 2014, 03:19:06 PM »

Here's a weird 2016 map where Ted Cruz and Bernie Sanders both mount third-party bids when Chris Christie wins the Republican nomination and when Hillary Clinton wins the Democratic nomination.

Governor Chris Christie (R-NJ)/Senator Marco Rubio(R-FL): 270 Electoral Votes
Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (D-NY)/Senator Mark Warner (D-VA): 169 Electoral Votes
Senator Ted Cruz (TeaParty-TX)/Former Governor Mike Huckabee (Tea Party-AR):89 Electoral Votes
Seantor Bernie Sanders (Progressive-VT)/Mayor Rocky Anderson (Progressive-UT): 3 Electoral Votes
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