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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
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Maxwell
mah519
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,459
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

« Reply #75 on: November 16, 2016, 11:27:58 PM »

1992 Louisiana Purchase - The End of GOP Domination

President Kit Bond (1981-1989) served two very successful terms, but his successor, Senator William Armstrong, proved to have a much more difficult time navigating the role of the office of President. In 1992, he finally met his match in a young Governor from Arkansas - Bill Clinton. Clinton managed to win over the deeply conservative Louisiana Purchase area and swing the white house - with the help of Congressman Wes Watkins, who abandoned the Democratic Party to form a new populist independent bid.



Governor William J. Clinton (D-AR)/Senator Robert Kerrey (D-NE) - 41.1%, 54 EV's
President William Armstrong (R-CO)/Vice President James Abdnor (R-SD) - 37.3%, 28 EV's
Congressman Wes Watkins (I-OK)/Millionaire Adam Walsh* (I-MO) - 20.9%, 0 EV's
Others - 0.7%, 0 EV's
Logged
Maxwell
mah519
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,459
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

« Reply #76 on: November 17, 2016, 12:35:14 PM »
« Edited: November 17, 2016, 12:52:56 PM by Maxwell »

1996 Louisiana Purchase - Clinton holds on

President Clinton first two years began incredibly rough, with Republicans gaining a super majority in both chambers in 1994. But the economy began to improve and Clinton took a sizable lead over Kansas favorite son Robert Dole. the marign of Clinton's win was surprisingly small considering pre-election polling, and the electoral margin showed a near victory for the aging Dole.



President William J. Clinton (D-AR)/Vice President Robert Kerrey (D-NE) - 46.3%, 43 EV's
Majority Leader Robert Dole (R-KS)/Congressman Richard Baker (R-LA) - 42.8%, 39 EV's
Congressman Wes Watkins (I-OK)/Economist Ed Hank* (I-IA) - 9.4%, 0 Ev's
Others - 1.5%, 0 EV's

2000 Louisiana Purchase - The Party is Over

President Clinton would leave office popular, but with a heavy ethical cloud over his administration. Ashcroft ran with a pledge to bring honor back to the White House, while Kerrey ran with the hope that he could distance himself from Clinton's ethical challenges. This failed spectacularly, and Ashcroft won a sizable victory.



Senator John Ashcroft (R-MO)/Former Secretary of Defense Dick Cheney (R-WY) - 52.6%, 65 EV's
Vice President Robert Kerrey (D-NE)/Senator Paul Wellstone (D-MN) - 43.2%, 17 EV's
Others - 4.2%, 0 EV's
Logged
Maxwell
mah519
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,459
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

« Reply #77 on: November 18, 2016, 05:35:01 PM »

2018 Senate Race - Success for Democrats in a Post-Trump World



D+1

Competitive Races

Arizona - 51% Krysten Sinema, 43% Laura Ingraham (Flake got primaried, Ingraham proved to be... well, Ingraham).

Delaware - 55% Lisa Blunt Rochester, 42% Adam Brooks* (Rochester primaried Carper successfully, Businessman Adam Brooks gave a tougher than expected challenge but despite polling competitively election day hit like a hammer)

Florida - 53% Bill Nelson, 42% Rick Scott (Scott proved a poorer senate candidate than he did a gubernatorial candidate)

Indiana - 49% Susan Brooks, 48% Joe Donnelly (Senator Fortunate proved to be the lone democrat loss in 2018)

Michigan - 55% Debbie Stabenow, 43% Brian Calley (Republicans assumed Stabenow to be more vulnerable than she actually was, pumping money into Calley they probably shouldn't have)

Missouri - 51% Jason Kander, 46% Ann Wagner (McCaskill retired at the end of her term to run a liberal think tank, and Kander jumped on to replacing her. Kander ran a campaign equally impressive to his 2016 campaign, and Wagner, without Blunt's incumbent advantage, succumbed)

Montana - 50% Jon Tester, 44% Ryan Zinke (Zinke was initially the golden boy of the GOP, but began having ethical problems which caused Tester to pull back ahead in the nick of time)

Nevada - 48% Dina Titus, 44% Dean Heller (A race neck-to-neck from day one - Heller proved a thorn in the side of the administration, but Titus never found footing in the race to break out, only on election day did Titus finally beat Heller thanks to The Reid Machine trademark 2010)

New Jersey - 53% Robert Menendez, 44% Jon Bramnick (yet another race Republicans got over-cocky about, Bramnick was close in the summer months but since then never stood a chance)

North Dakota - 50% Heidi Heitkamp, 46% Jack Dalrymple (the shock of the night - Dalrymple led in every poll, even the ones on election day which showed him only plus 1 or 2, but like Ron Johnson, Heitkamp campaigned hard and campaign local, while Republicans never put money into this race in the first place when initial public opinion polls showed Dalrymple with a double digit lead.)

Ohio - 58% Sherrod Brown, 37% Josh Mandel (ultimate proof re-matches aren't a good idea for either party)

Pennsylvania - 55% Bob Casey Jr., 42% Jim Cawley (this race never got off the ground, really)

Texas - 49% Ted Cruz, 47% Beto O'Rourke (Cruz faced a tough Trumpite primary from Mike McCaul, the exiting Homeland Security Secretary, and O'Rourke almost managed to be the right man at the right time)

Utah - 42% Jason Chaffetz, 34% Doug Owens, 18% Evan McMullin (McMullin stayed in the race after Chaffetz won the competitive Republican primary, due to Chaffetz being... well, Chaffetz. This gave Owens a few leading polls before ultimately crashing on election day to only slightly above the usual Democrat percentage of the vote)

Virginia - 60% Tim Kaine, 34% Carly Fiorina (Included this only for the lolz)

West Virginia - 48% Joe Manchin, 46% Patrick Morrissey (I'm not even sure what happened here)

Wisconsin - 54% Tammy Baldwin, 44% Sean Duffy (Duffy proved to be a pretty big laughingstock, with Baldwin running a hard-hitting campaign against him)
Logged
Maxwell
mah519
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,459
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

« Reply #78 on: November 23, 2016, 12:33:54 AM »

2020 Democrat Primaries



Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA)

Senator Sherrod Brown (D-OH)
Senator Cory Booker (D-NJ)
Senator Amy Klobuchar (D-MN)
Senator Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY)

Other Candidates
U.N. Ambassador Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI)
Governor Andrew Cuomo (D-NY)
New York City Mayor Bill DeBlasio (D-NY)
Former Governor Martin O'Malley (D-MD)
Former Governor Terry McAuliffe (D-VA)
Actor Mark Ruffalo (D-WI)

In the last Iowa Caucuses ever and the last of Iowa being the first in the nation, Amy Klobuchar scored a surprise win over expected contenders Kamala Harris and Sherrod Brown. Iowa would also send the campaigns of Mark Ruffalo, Terry McAuliffe, and Martin O'Malley. Klobuchar, in a sign of the increasing irrelevance of Iowa, managed to slide in future performances, only staying in long enough to win her home state of Minnesota. Harris would score a comeback in New Hampshire, defeating Gillibrand, who would go on to only win Massachussets before signaling the end of her campaign. New Hampshire would also eliminate the other two New York candidates - Cuomo and DeBlasio.

Booker scored the highest concentration of African American support of the field, but his support proved to have a ceiling when faced with fewer candidates, and as the states become less diverse and outside of his appeal, Booker would begin to lose ground quickly. Sherrod Brown suffered from his loss in Iowa, and had a hard time climbing back up the ladder after that even as he scored many impressive and, in the case of Oklahoma, Ohio, West Virginia, and Kentucky, sizable. Harris, thanks to California being her home state and her operation optimizing voters in high voter states, managed to score enough delegates to sweep the convention.
Logged
Maxwell
mah519
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,459
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

« Reply #79 on: November 30, 2016, 04:57:39 PM »

2016 Colonial United States



Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (D-NY)/Senator Tim Kaine (D-VA) - 51.7%, 92 EV's
Businessman Donald J. Trump (R-NY)/Former Senator Scott Brown (R-MA) -  43.6%, 78 EV''s
Others - 4.7%, 0 EVs

New York = New York + Vermont
Massachusetts = Massachusetts + Maine
Maryland = Maryland + D.C.
Virginia = Virginia + West Virginia
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Maxwell
mah519
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,459
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

« Reply #80 on: December 06, 2016, 07:49:12 PM »

United States general election, 2016
All 435 seats in the House of Commons
218 seats needed for a majority


Democrats (Hillary Clinton) 214 seats, 48.0% votes
Republicans (Donald Trump) 213 seats, 46.1% votes
Libertarians (Gary Johnson˚) 6 seats, 3.3% votes
Greens (Jill Stein˚) 1 seat, 1.1% votes
Independents (Various) 1 seat, 0.5% votes

˚ defeated

I suppose Libertarians go the way of Lib Dems and caucus with the Democrats, thus ensuring their complete wipe out in 2020?
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Maxwell
mah519
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,459
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

« Reply #81 on: December 09, 2016, 08:45:42 PM »

2020 Presidential Election - The TRUMPslide
On the outset, the first President Trump term didn't go very well - allegations of cronyism, widespread corruption, and incompetence flung from every corner, and several people close to the administration were hauled off to jail. The economy fell into stagnation and the world place became unruly. Nevertheless, Trump had an audience that clung on to, enough to warrant mid 30% approval ratings. But Democrats were so bitterly divided on the prospect of who to face him, that it was utter chaos. Andrew Cuomo had enough resources to pocked a solid 24-25% of the vote, just below the first place challenger, Elizabeth Warren, and enough support from super delegates to just barely cling to the nomination after a few ballots. Out-raged, liberals booed most of the convention, and Tom Steyer ran on a closer to a socialist platform, with him picking Jayapal to be his VP. Candidates this year faced un precedent unpopularity, with many Americans chiming for the days of 2016 (no, really). Trump, concerned with a potential loss even with the liberal divide, ordered administration officials to flood the economy with development projects, boosting his approvals to mid 40s, enough to squash the challenge to him.



President Donald J. Trump (R-NY)/Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN) - 46.9%, 356 EV's
Governor Andrew Cuomo (D-NY)/Senator Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) - 40.4%, 182 EV's
Businessman Tom Steyer (I-CA)/Congresswoman Pramila Jayapal (I-WA) - 10.5%, 0 EV's
Others - 2.2%, 0 EV's
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Maxwell
mah519
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,459
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

« Reply #82 on: January 02, 2017, 10:21:26 PM »
« Edited: January 03, 2017, 07:18:04 PM by Speaker Maxwell »

FROM CHUMP TO TRUMP - A BERNIE SANDERS TALE

1984 - Bush rides sympathy wave to landslide re-election



President George H.W. Bush (R-TX)/Vice President Howard Baker (R-TN) - 62.3%, 535 EV's
Reverend Jesse Jackson (D-IL)/Mayor Bernie Sanders (I-VT) - 35.4%, 3 EV's

1988 - Cuomo's the new Kennedy



Governor Mario Cuomo (D-NY)/Governor Bill Clinton (D-AR) - 50.9%, 323 EV's
HUD Secretary Jack Kemp (R-NY)/Senator Bob Dole (R-KS) - 46.2%, 215 EV's


1992 - Cuomo wallops Kirkpatrick, despite weakening economy



President Mario Cuomo (D-NY)/Vice President Bill Clinton (D-AR) - 45.3%, 409 EV's
Former UN Ambassador Jeanne Kirkpatrick (R-OK)/Senator Dan Quayle (R-IN) - 36.2%, 129 EV's
Businessman Donald Trump (I-NY)/Investor Wilbur Ross (I-NJ) - 14.2%, 0 EV's

1996 - Clinton edges Bush thanks to a good economy



Vice President Bill Clinton (D-AR)/Senator John Kerry (D-MA) - 46.5%, 291 EV's
Governor George W. Bush (R-TX)/Former Defense Secretary Dick Cheney (R-WY) - 45.4%,  247 EV's
Scattered Others - 8.1%, 0 EV's

2000 - Maverick McCain defeats Embattled Clinton



Senator John McCain (R-AZ)/Governor George Allen (R-VA) - 49.9%, 299 EV's
President Bill Clinton (D-AR)/Vice President John Kerry (D-MA) 47.8%, 239 EV's
Others - 2.9%, 0 EV's

2004 - Inspiring Edwards knocks out McCain in a Brawl



Senator John Edwards (D-NC)/Former Defense Secretary William Cohen (D-ME) - 48.7%, 275 EV's
President John McCain (R-AZ)/Vice President George Allen (R-VA) - 48.9%, 263 EV's
Others - 2.4%, 0 EV's

2008 - The Republican Revolution



Governor Jeb Bush (R-FL)/Senator Orrin Hatch (R-UT) - 55.2%, 387 EV's
President John Edwards (D-NC)/Vice President William Cohen (D-ME) - 42.5%, 151 EV's
Others - 2.3%, 0 EV's

2012 - Bush Remains Popular



President Jeb Bush (R-FL)/Vice President Orrin Hatch (R-UT) - 52.1%, 326 EV's
Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY)/Senator Evan Bayh (D-IN) - 46.0%, 212 EV's
Others - 1.9%, 0 EV's

2016 - Bernie's Back!



Senator Bernie Sanders (D-VT)/Governor Barack Obama (D-IL) - 47.6%, 303 EV's
Former Treasury Secretary W. Mitt Romney (R-MA)/Governor John Kasich (R-OH) - 46.3%, 235 EV's
Others - 6.1%, 0 EV's

2020 - FEEL THE BERN



President Bernie Sanders (D-VT)/Vice President Barack Obama (D-IL) - 54.3%, 374 EV's
Governor Mike Pence (R-IN)/Former Governor Nikki Haley (R-SC) - 44.6%, 164 EV's
Others - 1.1%, 0 EV's
Logged
Maxwell
mah519
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,459
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

« Reply #83 on: January 25, 2017, 11:28:22 PM »

Alternative A New America - 1980

8 years of President Hatfield has made America sour on the Republican Party and Mr. Hatfield himself. Hatfield constantly fueded with both the left and the right, and left the country with a myriad of problems. With the right-wing Conservative party backing off, Senator Paul Laxalt scored a major win over the intraparty moderates who had ruled the party for so long. The Democrats, meanwhile, went back to the well of a now considerably more popular President and nominated the liberal populist Former Governor Henry Howell of Virginia. He is the vanquisher of the Byrd wing of the Virginia Democrats, and noted for his feisty fighting style. The extremes of both parties forced John Anderson to run for a while, before dropping out due to a lack of traction. Polls were pretty close until the debates, when Howell gave his "We have to Slay The Dragon" address, with the Dragon, of course, being ineffective, unresponsive, and corrupt government.



Former Governor Henry Howell (D-VA)/Senator Patrick Lucey (D-WI) - 53%, 460 EV's
Senator Paul Laxalt (R-NV)/Senator John P. Hammerschmidt (R-AR) - 45%, 78 EV's
Logged
Maxwell
mah519
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,459
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

« Reply #84 on: February 03, 2017, 06:56:56 PM »

2020 - Donald Trump flops





President Donald Trump (R-NY) - 51.2%, Majority of Delegates
Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) - 40.8%, Most of the Minority of Delegates
Congressman Justin Amash (R-MI) - 6.2%, Statistically Negligible Delegates
Others - The Rest



Senator Al Franken (D-MN)/Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA) - 54.2%, 412 EV's
President Donald Trump (R-NY)/National Security Adviser Mike Flynn (D-RI) - 42.3%, 120 EV's
Eternal Governor Joseph Smith (UI-UT)/Eternal Lieutenant Governor Evan McMuffin (UI-UT) - 1.1%, 6 EV's

Logged
Maxwell
mah519
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,459
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

« Reply #85 on: February 05, 2017, 06:03:59 PM »

2020 - Donald Trump flops



Senator Al Franken (D-MN)/Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA) - 54.2%, 412 EV's
President Donald Trump (R-NY)/National Security Adviser Mike Flynn (D-RI) - 42.3%, 120 EV's
Eternal Governor Joseph Smith (UI-UT)/Eternal Lieutenant Governor Evan McMuffin (UI-UT) - 1.1%, 6 EV's


2024 - A Splintering of the Parties



President Al Franken (Democrat-MN)/Vice President Kamala Harris (Democrat-CA) - 40.9%, 460ish EV's
Senator Donald Trump Jr. (America First-PA)/Former Energy Secretary Rick Perry (America First-TX) - 25.2%, 50ish EV's
Former Senator Ben Sasse (Independent Republican-NE)/Former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley (Independent Republican-SC) - 15.8%, 20ish EV's
Governor Evan McMullin (Utah Independence-UT)/Activist Mindy Finn (Utah Independence-TX) - 2.1%, 6 EV's
Congresswoman Kshama Sawant (Socialist Green Alliance-WA)/Former Congressman Dennis Kucinich (Socialist Green Alliance-OH) - 8.2%, 0 EV's
Congressman Justin Amash (Libertarian-MI)/Dr. Robert Paul (Libertarian-TX) - 5.2%, 0 EV's
Others - 2.4%, 0 EV's
Logged
Maxwell
mah519
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,459
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

« Reply #86 on: February 21, 2017, 03:27:32 PM »

Potential Timeline - Bernie "America Allende" Sanders

2016



Senator Bernie Sanders (D-VT)/Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) - 46.3%, 347 EV's
Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX)/Governor Scott Walker (R-WI) - 42.3%, 191 EV's
Mayor Michael Bloomberg (I-NY)/Fmr. Governor Jon Huntsman (I-UT) - 8.5%, 0 EV's

2019



General James Mattis (I-WA) - 91.5%, 538 EV's
Others - 8.5%, 0 EV's
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Maxwell
mah519
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,459
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

« Reply #87 on: April 01, 2017, 05:06:14 PM »
« Edited: April 01, 2017, 05:18:14 PM by Maxwell »



blue = States George Wallace got over 10% of the vote
red = States George Wallace got less than 10% of the vote.

Unsurprisingly, George Wallace played very poorly on the coast and in the Northeast, but interestingly he also played very poorly in the conventionally Republican West, with some interesting performances in Idaho (they have a dark past with race) and Nevada (which I can kind of see, somehow being a little more Southern in nature than some of the other Western colonies). Closest states hovering around 10% are West Virginia, which barely breaks to join the Anti-Wallace coalition, and Michigan, which is just a hair above 10%.



blue = states Ross Perot got more than 20% of the vote
red = states Ross Perot got less than 20% of the vote

I notice there are a few inverses between Perot and Wallace. Perot performed spectacularly in the traditionally Republican west with one exception. Perot performed very poorly in the South, and interestingly also performed poorly in the rust belt with one big league exception in Ohio. The rust belt underperformance is interesting to me considering his campaign was TRADE TRADE TRADE, though maybe that wasn't an issue that resonated as hard with rust belters then. I think it has to do with the combination of TRADE TRADE TRADE with his hardline balanced budget message. I suppose WASPs like those kind of independents, so despite doing poorly overall in the Northeast (esp. New York and New Jersey), he did remarkably well in New England, particularly Maine where he got 2nd.
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Maxwell
mah519
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,459
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

« Reply #88 on: April 01, 2017, 08:23:53 PM »

Yeah it's very strange, though I suppose Trump engaged more with working class people as opposed to the people who employed them. Trump aimed at lower educated voters, while Perot's was definitely more about educated voters. That might be the major difference right there.
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Maxwell
mah519
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,459
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

« Reply #89 on: April 04, 2017, 11:28:13 PM »

2016 - Sanders wins thanks to Republican dysfunction



Senator Bernie Sanders (D-VT)/Senator Tim Kaine (D-VA) - 50.1%, 350 EV's
Former Secretary of State W. Mitt Romney (R-MA)/Senator Tim Scott (R-SC) - 45.2%, 188 EV's

2020 - President Sanders smashes Pence



President Bernie Sanders (D-VT)/Vice President Tim Kaine (D-VA) - 52.3%, 398 EV's
Senator Mike Pence (R-IN)/Senator Dean Heller (R-NV) - 43.5%, 140 EV's

2024 - VP Kaine rides Texas to victory



Vice President Tim Kaine (D-VA)/Senator Beto O'Rourke (D-TX) - 49.8%, ~300 EV's
Governor Josh Hawley (R-MO)/Congressman Richard Spencer (R-MT) - 46.2%, ~235 EV's
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