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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs? (Moderator: Dereich)
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Author Topic: Post random maps here  (Read 986703 times)
Skill and Chance
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« Reply #50 on: September 08, 2015, 08:15:15 PM »
« edited: September 08, 2015, 08:56:05 PM by Skill and Chance »

1912



Roosevelt/Johnson 286 EV 34.3%
Wilson/Marshall     218 EV 33.2%
Taft/Butler             27 EV 26.9%
Debs/Seidel          0 EV 4.1%

American involvement in WWI begins in the summer of 1915 in response to the sinking of the Lusitania.

1916



Roosevelt/Johnson 346 EV 43.8%
James M. Cox/Joseph Robinson 124 EV 28.2%
Pierre DuPont/Calvin Coolidge   62 EV  27.1%

President Roosevelt dies in his sleep in Paris on December 9th, 1918, the night after negotiations concluded with an armistice to end WWI on favorable terms.  He strenuously fought to add provisions for strict outside supervision of the new German democracy in place of harsh reparations clauses advocated by other allied nations.  The treaty is subsequently ratified by one vote in the senate at President Johnson's insistence during the fall of 1919.
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Skill and Chance
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Posts: 12,650
« Reply #51 on: September 08, 2015, 09:03:19 PM »
« Edited: September 08, 2015, 09:22:14 PM by Skill and Chance »

1920



Hiram Johnson/Charles Evans Hughes 466 EV 51.8%
Charles Bryan/George B. Martin            55 EV 21.9%
George Norris/LeBaron Colt                  10 EV 24.3%

1924



Charles Bryan/Clifford Walker 233 EV 37.9%*
Hiram Johnson/Charles Evans Hughes 164 EV 30.5%
Calvin Coolidge/Charles McNary 134 EV 31.2%

*The House and Senate, where Democrats have the plurality, elect Bryan and Walker.
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Skill and Chance
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Posts: 12,650
« Reply #52 on: September 09, 2015, 05:57:31 PM »
« Edited: September 21, 2015, 07:51:03 PM by Skill and Chance »

1928



Charles Bryan/Clifford Walker 421 EV 52.1%
Alvan Fuller/Walter Evans Edge 56 EV 23.8%
Robert LaFollette/William Pine   54 EV 23.3%

1932



Franklin Roosevelt/Upton Sinclair  222 EV  37.8%
Charles Curtis/Herbert Hoover  196 EV  38.1%
Clifford Walker/Claude Swanson 113 EV  22.9%

After a coalition agreement is formed, the House elects Roosevelt and the senate elects Hoover for a Roosevelt/Hoover Progressive-Republican administration.

1936



Franklin Roosevelt/Herbert Hoover (Coalition) 503 EV 67.1%

Theodore Bilbo/Walter F. George  28 EV  29.2%
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Skill and Chance
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Posts: 12,650
« Reply #53 on: September 11, 2015, 04:11:40 PM »
« Edited: October 26, 2015, 10:21:29 PM by Skill and Chance »

2050: Control of state legislatures under 4 party system that developed since the 28th Amendment abolished the electoral college in 2032:



Republican Party (socially conservative, lean protectionist, economically center right, base = white Evangelicals and Mormons)
Democratic Party (socially liberal, lean free trade, economically center left, base = non-Southern suburbs)
Nuestra Union (pro-immigration, free trade, Catholic social teachings, base = Hispanics and expanding toward white Catholics, prefers to coalition with Democrats)
American Party (pro-labor, protectionist, agnostic on most social issues, base = unionized labor and commodity industries, prefers to coalition with Republicans)

30% shading = coalition control
50% shading = majority
60% shading = supermajority

Coalitions:

CO/IL/GA/NJ: Democrats with Nuestra Union
TX: Republicans with Nuestra Union
NE/KS/MO/OH/PA/WV: Republicans with American Party
ME: Democrats with American Party
WI/MI: American Party with Democrats
AK: American Party with Republicans
FL: Nuestra Union with Democrats
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Skill and Chance
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Posts: 12,650
« Reply #54 on: September 17, 2015, 10:51:09 PM »
« Edited: September 17, 2015, 10:53:24 PM by Skill and Chance »

2050: Control of state legislatures under 4 party system that developed since the 28th Amendment abolished the electoral college in 2032:



Republican Party (socially conservative, lean protectionist, economically center right, base = white Evangelicals and Mormons)
Democratic Party (socially liberal, lean free trade, economically center left, base = non-Southern suburbs)
Nuestra Union (pro-immigration, free trade, Catholic social teachings, base = Hispanics and expanding toward white Catholics, prefers to coalition with Democrats)
American Party (pro-labor, protectionist, agnostic on most social issues, base = unionized labor and commodity industries, prefers to coalition with Republicans)

30% shading = coalition control
50% shading = bicameral majority
60% shading = supermajority

Coalitions:

CO/IL/GA/NJ: Democrats with Nuestra Union
TX: Republicans with Nuestra Union
NE/KS/MO/OH/PA/WV: Republicans with American Party
ME: Democrats with American Party
WI/MI: American Party with Democrats
AK: American Party with Republicans
FL: Nuestra Union with Democrats

Why does the American party side with the republicans, is it economically right-wing, yet supports labour?

The American Party sides with the Republicans more often because they are protectionist, quite suspicious of immigration and because they have absorbed the oil and gas lobby, making them agnostic to hostile on environmental laws depending on how they impact producers.  Republicans are more comfortable making concessions to private sector unions by this time and are seen as defenders of the Farm Bill.  The American Party is basically Donald Trump with a Minnesota Nice personality and a dash of Sanders on inequality. 
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Skill and Chance
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Posts: 12,650
« Reply #55 on: April 01, 2017, 07:30:19 PM »



blue = States George Wallace got over 10% of the vote
red = States George Wallace got less than 10% of the vote.

Unsurprisingly, George Wallace played very poorly on the coast and in the Northeast, but interestingly he also played very poorly in the conventionally Republican West, with some interesting performances in Idaho (they have a dark past with race) and Nevada (which I can kind of see, somehow being a little more Southern in nature than some of the other Western colonies). Closest states hovering around 10% are West Virginia, which barely breaks to join the Anti-Wallace coalition, and Michigan, which is just a hair above 10%.



blue = states Ross Perot got more than 20% of the vote
red = states Ross Perot got less than 20% of the vote

I notice there are a few inverses between Perot and Wallace. Perot performed spectacularly in the traditionally Republican west with one exception. Perot performed very poorly in the South, and interestingly also performed poorly in the rust belt with one big league exception in Ohio. The rust belt underperformance is interesting to me considering his campaign was TRADE TRADE TRADE, though maybe that wasn't an issue that resonated as hard with rust belters then. I think it has to do with the combination of TRADE TRADE TRADE with his hardline balanced budget message. I suppose WASPs like those kind of independents, so despite doing poorly overall in the Northeast (esp. New York and New Jersey), he did remarkably well in New England, particularly Maine where he got 2nd.

Perot being such a Western phenomenon and Trump such an Eastern one is a very interesting contradiction given how similar they are.  Maybe the conditions on the ground in the Midwest simply hadn't deteriorated enough by 1992/96? 
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