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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs? (Moderators: Kalwejt, Apocrypha)
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #4350 on: September 07, 2014, 05:11:54 pm »
« edited: September 07, 2014, 05:13:32 pm by Skill and Chance »

Election of 2060



Maria Rodriguez (FL-GOV)/Jake Gillibrand (NY-SEN) 291 EV 50.2%

Evelyn Smith (TN-GOV)/Edgar Watson (IL-GOV)  247 EV 48.0%
Why do you think Vermont votes REP?

I think it will eventually fall into sync with other rural, ethnically homogenous areas.  Most Northern states are actually poor fits for the long run Dem coalition, save for the most urban.
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NHI
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« Reply #4351 on: September 07, 2014, 08:16:53 pm »

√ (R) George Romney/Ronald Reagan: 279 (40.7%)
(D) Hubert Humphrey/Edmund Muskie: 206 (40.5%)
George Wallace/Curtis LeMay: 53 (17.8%)

√ (R) George Romney/Ronald Reagan: 466 (58.4%)
(D) Edmund Muskie/George McGovern: 72 (41.0%)

√ (R) Ronald Reagan/Edward Brooke: 381 (54.3%)
(D) Frank Church/Jimmy Carter: 157 (44.5%)

√ (D) Lloyd Bentsen/John Glenn: 295 (50.5%)
(R) Ronald Reagan/Edward Brooke: 243 (48.6%)

√ (D) Lloyd Bentsen/John Glenn: 538 (61.9%)
(R) Phil Crane/Larry Pressler: 0 (37.7%)

√ (R) Edward Brooke/Bob Dole: 272 (49.74%)
(D) Michael Dukakis/Bill Clinton: 266 (49.59%)

√ (D) Bill Clinton/Al Gore: 339 (52.7%)
(R) Edward Brooke/Bob Dole: 199 (45.9%)

√ (D) Bill Clinton/Al Gore: 392 (56.1%)
(R) Bob Dole/Jack Kemp: 146 (42.8%)

√ (R) John McCain/Judd Gregg: 276 (49.3%)
(D) Al Gore/Joe Lieberman: 262 (49.2%)

√ (R) John McCain/Judd Gregg: 481 (58.0%)
(D) Howard Dean/John Edwards: 57 (40.9%)

√ (R) Judd Gregg/Charlie Crist: 283 (51.7%)
(D) Evan Bayh/Christine Gregoire: 255 (47.1%)

√ (D) Hillary Clinton/Gavin Newsom: 277 (50.1%)
(R) Judd Gregg/Charlie Crist: 261 (48.5%)
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Dixie Reborn
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« Reply #4352 on: September 07, 2014, 10:13:22 pm »

2012: Dixie Begins


√ Barack Obama (D-IL) / Joe Biden (D-DE) {Democrat} EV=374
Mitt Romney (R-MA) / Paul Ryan (R-WI) {Republican} EV=93
Jeff Sessions (DX-AL) / Louis Gohmert (DX-TX) {Dixiecrat} EV=71
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Dixie Reborn
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« Reply #4353 on: September 07, 2014, 10:35:44 pm »

2015: Obama uses executive action to unilaterally seek a third term.

2016: The Dixie Rises


2016-2018: 2nd U.S. Civil War
2018: Dixiecratic Military Dictatorship established
2019: Wisconsin given permission to secede

2020: The Dark Dixie

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Tom
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« Reply #4354 on: September 08, 2014, 11:47:16 am »

2012: Dixie Begins


√ Barack Obama (D-IL) / Joe Biden (D-DE) {Democrat} EV=374
Mitt Romney (R-MA) / Paul Ryan (R-WI) {Republican} EV=93
Jeff Sessions (DX-AL) / Louis Gohmert (DX-TX) {Dixiecrat} EV=71

Does Obama win MS, GA and SC due to the GOP and Dixiecrat tickets splitting the white vote?

Also, I think Sessions would win those states before he won NC.
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MATTROSE94
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« Reply #4355 on: September 08, 2014, 01:41:07 pm »

2012: Dixie Begins


√ Barack Obama (D-IL) / Joe Biden (D-DE) {Democrat} EV=374
Mitt Romney (R-MA) / Paul Ryan (R-WI) {Republican} EV=93
Jeff Sessions (DX-AL) / Louis Gohmert (DX-TX) {Dixiecrat} EV=71

Does Obama win MS, GA and SC due to the GOP and Dixiecrat tickets splitting the white vote?

Also, I think Sessions would win those states before he won NC.
That's what I think as well. I feel that Obama would end up carrying North Carolina and Jeff Sessions would have an edge in South Carolina. In addition, a split white vote might have been enough to flip Missouri, Kentucky and Texas to Obama's way, albeit barely.
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NHI
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« Reply #4356 on: September 08, 2014, 06:09:08 pm »

√ Jon Huntsman/Marco Rubio: 285 (50.3%)
Barack Obama/Joe Biden: 253 (48.3%)
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Maxwell
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« Reply #4357 on: September 08, 2014, 07:26:29 pm »

The End of Two Term Presidents

2000 - President Weld wins convincing re-election

Despite a Democrat congress, Weld was able to work with Democrats and have a successful agenda. Combined with Democrats putting up a very weak nominee in Speaker Dick Gephardt, he was able to win even with a strong challenge to his right from Columnist Pat Buchanan, both in the primary and, to a lesser extent, in the general.




President William Weld (R-MA)/Vice President Dan Quayle (R-IN) - 51.9%, 391 EV's
Speaker Dick Gephardt (D-MO)/Senator Paul Wellstone (D-MN) - 41.5%, 147 EV's
Commentator Pat Buchanan (C-DC)/Congressman Virgil Goode (C-VA) - 5.2%, 0 EV's
Others - 1.4%, 0 EV's

2004 - Nunn knocks out Quayle

Vice President Quayle, defeating the President's secret choice of the more moderate Senator Lamar Alexander, ran a desperate campaign against Former Senator Sam Nunn, who was favored due to his experience. He picked Mayor Rudy Giuliani for VP, a pick that was originally praised, then eviscerated due to the Bernie Kirk scandal and Giuliani's inexperience. Nunn/Kerry won easily.




Fmr. Senator Sam Nunn (D-AR)/Senator John Kerry (D-MA) - 52.5%, 357 EV's
Vice President Dan Quayle (R-IN)/Fmr. Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R-NY) - 45.4%, 181 EV's
Others - 2.1%, 0 EV's

2008 - McCain gives Vice President Kerry a wallop

Nunn, citing age, decided not to run again, and the economic crisis doomed Vice President John Kerry's election attempt, easily losing to Senator John McCain, who received endorsements from several prominent Democrats.



Senator John McCain (R-AZ)/Governor Mark Sanford (R-SC) - 53.1%, 359 EV's

Vice President John Kerry (D-MA)/Senator Barack Obama (D-IL) - 45.3%, 171 EV's
Others - 1.6%, 0 Ev's


2012 - Dean edges McCain in close race

McCain's presidency was generally considered a disaster. Vice President Mark Sanford resigned shortly into his term after a sex scandal involving the Appalachian trail, with McCain originally appointing friend and South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham to the spot. He proved to be vulnerable, especially from the left on war policy, giving Former DNC Chairman Howard Dean a surprising opening. Showing party unity, he picked Conservative Senator Joe Manchin to be his Vice President. McCain with the un-showboaty Former Governor Mitt Romney, which left the base unexcited, and Dean won a narrow election.




Former DNC Chairman Howard Dean (D-VT)/Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV)
- 48.4%, 277 EV's
President John McCain (R-AZ)/Fmr. Governor Mitt Romney (R-MA) - 48.1%, 261 EV's
Others - 3.5%, 0 EV's

2016 - A clear end of the trend

Dean was considered a relatively average President, not as loony eyed as many expected, but not one who accomplished too much. The unpopular Deancare made him seem vulnerable early on, but the Republican primary turned into a bloodbath, with the party eventually nominating a ticket of Doctor Ben Carson and Senator Ted Cruz, two ultraconservatives. This resulted in a protest ticket, with Former Senators Lincoln Chafee and Sheila Frahm joining the race with the endorsement of Former President Weld. This resulted in a landslide win for President Dean, whose popularity continued to grow as the election came to a close.



President Howard Dean (D-VT)/Vice President Joe Manchin (D-WV) - 57.3%, 491 EV's
Dr. Ben Carson (R-MD)/Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) - 30.2%, 47 EV's
Fmr. Senator Lincoln Chaffee (I-RI)/Fmr. Senator Sheila Frahm (I-KS) - 11.3%, 0 EV's
Others - 1.2%, 0 Ev's

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Pessimistic Antineutrino
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« Reply #4358 on: September 08, 2014, 08:51:48 pm »


Former Sec. of State Hillary Clinton (D-NY)/Senator Mark Warner (D-VA) - 40.1%, 297 EV's
Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX)/Governor Scott Walker (R-WI) - 37.6%, 237 EV's
Senator Angus King (I-ME)/Senator Greg Orman (I-KS) - 21.2%, 4 EV's
Others - 1.1%, 0 EV's
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NHI
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« Reply #4359 on: September 08, 2014, 09:14:27 pm »

2016: GOP Falls Apart, Democrats Hold Together
√ (D) Joe Manchin/Claire McCaskill: 435 (54.8%)
(R) Ted Cruz/Scott Walker: 103 (43.5%)

Hillary Clinton opts out of the race for President, opening up the race on the Democratic side. A fractured field allows Joe Manchin to come from behind in Iowa and New Hampshire and thus win the nomination,. On the Republican side, an equally divided field comes down to Jeb Bush and Ted Cruz, with Cruz narrowly eking out a at the end of the primary. Despite a fragile economy, Cruz ran to the right, and was crushed by the Manchin/McCaskill ticket.

The Party of Brian

√ (R) Brian Sandoval/Pat Toomey: 276 (49.0%)
(D) Jason Carter/Amy Klobuchar: 264 (48.1%)
Other: 0 (2.9%)

Both President Manchin and Vice President McCaskill opt out of running in 2020, calling on a new age of leadership, once more opening up the field. Georgia Governor Jason Carter, Grandson of former President Jimmy Carter, secured the nomination. On the GOP side, Republicans eager to win back control of the White House turn to Nevada Senator Brian Sandoval and Pennsylvania Senator Pat Toomey to lead the party back to victory. In a close contest the state of Pennsylvania puts Sandoval over the top, electing him the 46th President of the United States.

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Dixie Reborn
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« Reply #4360 on: September 08, 2014, 09:52:30 pm »

2016 Republican Presidential Primaries



Jeb Bush - Red
Rand Paul - Blue
Jeff Sessions - Green
Ben Carson - Yellow
Rob Portman - Orange
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MadmanMotley
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« Reply #4361 on: September 11, 2014, 12:26:05 am »

Four More Years
1992:

Pres. George H.W. Bush (R-TX)/VP. Dan Quayle (R-IN) 275EV
Gov. William Clinton (D-AR)/Sen. Al Gore (D-TN) 259EV
Mr. H Ross Perot (I-TX)/Fmr. Vice-Admiral James Stockdale (I-CA) 4EV

1996:

Mr. Pat Buchanan (R-DC)/Sen. Richard Santorum (R-PA) 242EV
Gov. Jerry Brown (D-CA)/Sen. Bob Kerrey (D-NE) 296EV

2000:

Fmr. VP. Dan Quayle (R-IN)/Fmr. Sec. Elizabeth Dole (R-NC) 314EV
Pres. Jerry Brown (D-CA)/VP. Bob Kerrey (D-NE) 224EV

2004:

Pres. Dan Quayle (R-IN)/VP. Elizabeth Dole (R-NC) 269EV
Fmr. Sen. Al Gore (D-TN)/Sen. Bill Nelson (D-FL) 269EV*
*Elected by Democratic House and Senate

2008:

Fmr. Pres. Dan Quayle (R-IN)/Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK)* 391EV
Pres. Al Gore (D-TN)/VP. Bill Nelson (D-FL) 147EV
*Elizabeth Dole declined renomination, citing age
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NHI
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« Reply #4362 on: September 11, 2014, 08:16:48 pm »

[center][/center]
Howard Dean/Wesley Clark: 270 (49.11%)
George W. Bush/Dick Cheney: 268 (49.51%)

John McCain/Jon Huntsman: 366 (53.1%)
Howard Dean/Wesley Clark: 172 (45.3%)
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NHI
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« Reply #4363 on: September 12, 2014, 03:07:52 pm »

Maybe a future timeline...we'll see.
2 Non-Consecutive Terms


√ Ronald Reagan/George H.W. Bush: 497 (51.7%)
Ted Kennedy/Robert Byrd: 41 (40.0%)
John Anderson/Pat Lucey: 0 (7.3%)

√ George H.W. Bush/Robert Dole: 408 (53.9%)
Gary Hart/Geraldine Ferraro: 130 (44.9%)

√ Bill Clinton/Mario Cuomo: 288 (50.3%)
(R) Robert Dole/Dan Quayle: 250 (48.4%)

√ Colin Powell/Jack Kemp: 340 (45.0%)
Mario Cuomo/Al Gore: 198 (43.8%)
Ross Perot/James Stockdale: 0 (10.5%)

√ Jack Kemp/John McCain: 270 (49.1%)
Bob Kerrey/Dianne Feinstein: 268 (49.0%)

√ Bill Clinton/Howard Dean: 309 (51.0%)
John McCain/George W. Bush: 229 (48.0%)

√ George W. Bush/Elizabeth Dole: 290 (50.2%)
Howard Dean/John Kerry: 248 (48.6%)


√ Hillary Clinton/Barack Obama: 311 (50.9%)
Elizabeth Dole/Rudy Giuliani: 227 (47.7%)

√ Mitt Romney/Rob Portman: 285 (50.1%)
Barack Obama/Evan Bayh: 253 (48.4%)

22nd Amendment: Prohibits no man from serving as President for more than two [non-consecutive] terms.

33. Harry Truman: 1945-1953
34. Dwight Eisenhower: 1953-1957
35. Richard Nixon: 1957-1961

36. John F. Kennedy: 1961-1963*
37. Lyndon Johnson: 1963-1969

38. Richard Nixon: 1969-1973
39. Spiro Agnew: 1973-1974**
40. Nelson Rockefeller: 1974-1977

40. Jimmy Carter: 1977-1981
41. Ronald Reagan: 1981-1985
42. George H.W. Bush: 1985-1989

43. Bill Clinton: 1989-1993
44. Colin Powell: 1993-1997
45. Jack Kemp: 1997-2001

46. Bill Clinton: 2001-2005
47. George W. Bush: 2005-2009
48. Hillary Clinton: 2009-2013
49. Mitt Romney: 2013-2017

*: Died in Office
**: Resigned over tax evasion
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NHI
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« Reply #4364 on: September 13, 2014, 01:04:13 pm »

√ Hillary Clinton: 12,311,467 (57.4%)
Martin O' Malley: 4,531,433 (21.1%)
Bernie Sanders: 4,132,003 (19.3%)
Other: 456,333 (2.2%)

√ Rand Paul: 8,301,332 (34.9%)
Chris Christie: 7,652,111 (32.2%)
Ted Cruz: 5,894,331 (24.8%)
Marco Rubio: 1,451,943 (6.1%)
Other: 499,888 (2.0%)

√ (R) Rand Paul/Susana Martinez: 283 (48.9%)
(D) Hillary Clinton/Mark Warner: 248 (46.7%)
(I) Bernie Sanders/Angus King: 7 (4.0%)
Other: 0 (0.4%)
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NHI
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« Reply #4365 on: September 13, 2014, 05:37:57 pm »


√ (D) Hillary Clinton/Jay Nixon: 270 (38.0%)
(I) Jon Huntsman/Joe Manchin: 177 (33.6%)
(R) Ted Cruz/Mike Lee: 91 (27.7%)
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NHI
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« Reply #4366 on: September 14, 2014, 05:53:09 pm »

√ Bill Clinton/Al Gore: 422 (50.0%)
Dan Quayle/Bob Dole: 116 (30.9%)
Ross Perot/James Stockdale: 0 (18.1%)
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beaver2.0
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« Reply #4367 on: September 16, 2014, 08:00:50 pm »


McKinley- 248
Bryan- 153
John M. Palmer- 46
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NHI
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« Reply #4368 on: September 16, 2014, 08:30:44 pm »

√ Theodore Roosevelt: 368 (52.1%)
Woodrow Wilson: 163 (46.9%)

√ Theodore Roosevelt: 346 (51.7%)
Oscar Underwood: 185 (47.1%)

√ Leonard Wood: 404 (61.4%)
James Cox: 127 (36.9%)

√ Leonard Wood: 315 (51.0%)
Samuel Ralston: 216 (48.3%)

√ Calvin Coolidge: 422 (60.6%)
Alfred E. Smith: 109 (38.4%)

√ Franklin Roosevelt: 508 (61.0%)
Calvin Coolidge: 23 (37.7%)

√ Franklin Roosevelt: 523 (61.5%)
Alfred Landon: 8 (37.2%)

√ Franklin Roosevelt: 413 (57.3%)
Herbert Hoover: 118 (42.4%)

√ Franklin Roosevelt: 432 (53.4%)
Thomas Dewey: 99 (45.9%)

√ Franklin Roosevelt: 381 (52.3%)
Thomas Dewey: 150 (46.8%)

√ Robert Taft: 306 (50.8%)
Adlai Stevenson: 225 (48.1%)

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MATTROSE94
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« Reply #4369 on: September 19, 2014, 09:39:32 am »
« Edited: July 10, 2015, 07:54:19 pm by MATTROSE94 »

1976:

Senator Henry "Scoop" Jackson (D-WA)/Former Governor Jimmy Carter (D-GA): 361 Electoral Votes 53%
Former Governor Ronald Reagan (R-CA)/Senator Richard Schweiker (R-PA): 177 Electoral Votes 45%
Others (Libertarian, American Independent, Communist, Socialist Workers, Etc.): 0 Electoral Votes 2%
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MATTROSE94
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« Reply #4370 on: September 19, 2014, 09:51:19 am »
« Edited: July 10, 2015, 07:54:58 pm by MATTROSE94 »

1984 (George Wallace somehow gets the Democratic nomination):

President Ronald Reagan (R-CA)/Vice-President George H.W. Bush (R-TX): 467 Electoral Votes 59.5%
Governor George Wallace (D-AL)/Senator Ernest Hollings (D-SC): 71 Electoral Votes 39.1%
Others (Libertarian, Communist, Socialist Workers, New Alliance, Etc.): 1.4%
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NHI
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« Reply #4371 on: September 21, 2014, 08:26:27 am »

(I) Jon Huntsman/Joe Manchin: 300 (39.7%)
(D) Martin O'Malley/Elizabeth Warren: 132 (32.6%)
(R) Ted Cruz/Tim Scott: 106 (26.7%)
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #4372 on: September 22, 2014, 02:57:47 pm »
« Edited: September 22, 2014, 05:13:29 pm by Skill and Chance »

Continuation of the Lincoln survives in 1865 scenario.

Nominated by acclamation, Sara Roosevelt runs for an unprecedented 3rd consecutive term.  During her first 8 years in office, she worked with congress to enact a broad spectrum of social insurance programs for the country, including the Child Labor Act of 1917, the Social Security and Farm Security Acts of 1918, the Electrification Act of 1919 and the Health Care Acts of 1921.  The 20th Amendment, ratified in 1918, explicitly authorizes federal social insurance programs.

1924



Sara Ann Roosevelt/Burton K. Wheeler   56.8%
William Cameron Sproul/Edward Edwards   42.7%   
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #4373 on: September 22, 2014, 06:09:09 pm »
« Edited: September 23, 2014, 11:59:55 pm by Skill and Chance »

1928



Burton K. Wheeler/John Nance Garner 55.0%
Andrew Mellon/C. Blascom Slemp 43.8%

The 21st Amendment is ratified in 1930, limiting the president to a total of 3 terms, consecutive or non-consecutive.

1932



Burton K. Wheeler/John Nance Garner 58.9%
Charles L. McNary/Calvin Coolidge 40.6%

The stock market crash begins in January, 1934.

1936



Herbert Hoover/Thomas Gore 60.1%
John L. Lewis/Frank Murphy 38.5%

1940



Herbert Hoover/Thomas Gore 61.4%
Henry Wallace/Frances Perkins 38.1%

The US enters WWII in May of 1941.



Herbert Hoover/Margaret Chase Smith 62.8%
Alben W. Barkley/Adlai Stevenson 36.8%

Allied victory in WWII gives Hoover the largest landslide in the history of the Republican/Populist party system.  He becomes the only president ever to win all his terms with more than 60% of the vote.

1948



Margaret Chase Smith/Douglas MacArthur 51.2%
Henry Wallace/Robert H. Jackson 48.1%

1952



Margaret Chase Smith/William F. Knowland 53.1%
Irving Ives/Dennis Chavez 46.4%

1956



Frank Clement/Mike Monroney  50.3%
Margaret Chase Smith/William F. Knowland 48.5%

36 year-old Frank Clement defeats an incumbent president for the first time since 1900.

1960



Everett Dirksen/John M. Butler 49.4%
Frank Clement/Mike Monroney 49.2%
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NHI
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« Reply #4374 on: September 23, 2014, 09:01:23 pm »

√ Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine: 270 (49.3%)
Mitt Romney/Brian Sandoval: 268 (49.5%)

√ Brian Sandoval/Kelly Ayotte: 285 (50.7%)
Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine: 253 (47.9%)
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