Sanders vs. Trump

[TarHeelDem]

Discuss with maps.

[dudeabides]

Many mainstream Republicans, centrists, and moderate Democrats would stay home - leaving the liberal base and the tea party to determine the election results:

Bernie Sanders (D) 58% 360 EV
Donald Trump (R) 41% 178 EV

What would really be interesting is a three way race between an independent candidate, Sanders, and Trump. I think it would look like this:


Jon Huntsman (I) 47% 273 EV
Bernie Sanders (D) 38% 222 EV
Donald Trump (R) 14% 43 EV

[Fuzzy Bear]

I can't begin to predict this.

Given the animosity most establishment Republicans have against Trump, I cannot imagine them uniting behind him at the Republican convention, should Trump actually gain a majority of delegates.  In that instance, I believe that Sanders would probably end up with a majority IF the GOP establishment anoints a "regular" to run as an Independent Republican in response to the Trump "hostile takeover" of the party.

Because a 3rd Party Republican would probably hand the election to Sanders, I suspect that the GOP would go the Dixiecrat/Harry Byrd route.  I would predict that a number of states would slate unpledged Republican electors, or electors pledged to another Republcan (Jeb Bush?).  That's what a lot of people forget:  Thurmond and Wright were the DEMOCRATIC candidates in SC, AL, MS, and LA, the states they actually carried; in the rest of the South, they ran as the States' Rights Democratic Party and finished behind the regular Democratic slate of Truman and Barkley.  Thurmond even lost Georgia because the Truman forces were able, due to local political considerations, to prevail over the Thurmond forces and name the Georgia electors for Truman.

Such a strategy would likely result in a majority of Republican electors of some stripe.  At that point, it would depend as to which state Republican Parties would defy the will of the Republican National Convention.  There would be a revolution in politics if a huge chunk of the GOP state parties bolted the Trump ticked and named unpledged electors, but I cannot think of how they could be prevented from doing so if they got it in their head to do so.

[Skye]

I can't see Sanders winning in a big landslide, but I doubt Trump would gather that much support. It would be like Obama-McCain.

[Fuzzy Bear]

I can't see Sanders winning in a big landslide, but I doubt Trump would gather that much support. It would be like Obama-McCain.

Obama and McCain were, at the least, in the mainstream of their parties.  Sanders and Trump are both outside of theirs.  That is why I say that there will undoubtedly be a 3rd party factor if Trump is the nominee. 

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

I can't begin to predict this.

Given the animosity most establishment Republicans have against Trump, I cannot imagine them uniting behind him at the Republican convention, should Trump actually gain a majority of delegates.  In that instance, I believe that Sanders would probably end up with a majority IF the GOP establishment anoints a "regular" to run as an Independent Republican in response to the Trump "hostile takeover" of the party.

Because a 3rd Party Republican would probably hand the election to Sanders, I suspect that the GOP would go the Dixiecrat/Harry Byrd route.  I would predict that a number of states would slate unpledged Republican electors, or electors pledged to another Republcan (Jeb Bush?).  That's what a lot of people forget:  Thurmond and Wright were the DEMOCRATIC candidates in SC, AL, MS, and LA, the states they actually carried; in the rest of the South, they ran as the States' Rights Democratic Party and finished behind the regular Democratic slate of Truman and Barkley.  Thurmond even lost Georgia because the Truman forces were able, due to local political considerations, to prevail over the Thurmond forces and name the Georgia electors for Truman.

Such a strategy would likely result in a majority of Republican electors of some stripe.  At that point, it would depend as to which state Republican Parties would defy the will of the Republican National Convention.  There would be a revolution in politics if a huge chunk of the GOP state parties bolted the Trump ticked and named unpledged electors, but I cannot think of how they could be prevented from doing so if they got it in their head to do so.

This is an excellent point. Without large scale nationwide state polls, it would be hard to tell where Trump might have his name on the Republican ticket and where he wouldn't. Basically, it would be a giant clusterf[inks].

There are some states that have laws against unfaithful electors, but I don't know that anyone has been punished under them and if they would hold up in court.

[dudeabides]

I can't begin to predict this.

Given the animosity most establishment Republicans have against Trump, I cannot imagine them uniting behind him at the Republican convention, should Trump actually gain a majority of delegates.  In that instance, I believe that Sanders would probably end up with a majority IF the GOP establishment anoints a "regular" to run as an Independent Republican in response to the Trump "hostile takeover" of the party.

Because a 3rd Party Republican would probably hand the election to Sanders, I suspect that the GOP would go the Dixiecrat/Harry Byrd route.  I would predict that a number of states would slate unpledged Republican electors, or electors pledged to another Republcan (Jeb Bush?).  That's what a lot of people forget:  Thurmond and Wright were the DEMOCRATIC candidates in SC, AL, MS, and LA, the states they actually carried; in the rest of the South, they ran as the States' Rights Democratic Party and finished behind the regular Democratic slate of Truman and Barkley.  Thurmond even lost Georgia because the Truman forces were able, due to local political considerations, to prevail over the Thurmond forces and name the Georgia electors for Truman.

Such a strategy would likely result in a majority of Republican electors of some stripe.  At that point, it would depend as to which state Republican Parties would defy the will of the Republican National Convention.  There would be a revolution in politics if a huge chunk of the GOP state parties bolted the Trump ticked and named unpledged electors, but I cannot think of how they could be prevented from doing so if they got it in their head to do so.

The problem for Trump supporters is that it isn't just the establishment that dislikes the guy. Only the crazies like him.

[The Other Castro]

I can't begin to predict this.

Given the animosity most establishment Republicans have against Trump, I cannot imagine them uniting behind him at the Republican convention, should Trump actually gain a majority of delegates.  In that instance, I believe that Sanders would probably end up with a majority IF the GOP establishment anoints a "regular" to run as an Independent Republican in response to the Trump "hostile takeover" of the party.

Because a 3rd Party Republican would probably hand the election to Sanders, I suspect that the GOP would go the Dixiecrat/Harry Byrd route.  I would predict that a number of states would slate unpledged Republican electors, or electors pledged to another Republcan (Jeb Bush?).  That's what a lot of people forget:  Thurmond and Wright were the DEMOCRATIC candidates in SC, AL, MS, and LA, the states they actually carried; in the rest of the South, they ran as the States' Rights Democratic Party and finished behind the regular Democratic slate of Truman and Barkley.  Thurmond even lost Georgia because the Truman forces were able, due to local political considerations, to prevail over the Thurmond forces and name the Georgia electors for Truman.

Such a strategy would likely result in a majority of Republican electors of some stripe.  At that point, it would depend as to which state Republican Parties would defy the will of the Republican National Convention.  There would be a revolution in politics if a huge chunk of the GOP state parties bolted the Trump ticked and named unpledged electors, but I cannot think of how they could be prevented from doing so if they got it in their head to do so.

The problem for Trump supporters is that it isn't just the establishment that dislikes the guy. Only the crazies like him.

That doesn't seem to be a problem if you're trying to win votes in a Republican primary.