Fear and Loathing in 72’ – The Election Game (GM Vacancy) (user search)
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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
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  Fear and Loathing in 72’ – The Election Game (GM Vacancy) (search mode)
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Author Topic: Fear and Loathing in 72’ – The Election Game (GM Vacancy)  (Read 91188 times)
Lumine
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« on: July 26, 2015, 04:34:46 PM »
« edited: July 03, 2016, 07:52:41 PM by Vice President Lumine »

Fear and Loathing in 72'


Gallup: President Nixon's Approval Rating:

Approve: 49%
Disapprove: 39%
Undecided: 12%

Gallup: 1972 Presidential Election:


Richard Nixon: 41%
Generic Democrat: 40%
George Wallace: 12%
John Schmitz: 1%
Undecided: 6%

President Nixon enters 1972 on a positive approval rating, yet one that could easily go down as the China overtures seem mixed, the Vietnam negotiations take a turn for the worse and the economy remains unstable. Indeed, many challengers have appeared for the President both in primaries and the general election, and the potential candidacies of George Wallace and John Schmitz appear as more damaging for Nixon than the Democrats. On the bright side for the GOP, they do hold a lead in the Electoral College. But will Nixon lead his party in November? And who will the Democrats choose to take on the incumbent?
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Lumine
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« Reply #1 on: July 26, 2015, 04:39:58 PM »
« Edited: July 26, 2015, 04:41:32 PM by Senator and Deputy SoEA Lumine »

Turn One: Announcement Season:
January 2nd to January 8th, 1972

1.- General View: As January 1972 begins, it's time for the candidates to announce their candidacies and start their tour of the nation. There little less than three weeks until the low profile Arizona and Iowa Caucuses, and the main early events, the New Hampshire and Florida Primaries, await at the beginning of March. Have fun!

2.- Note on Delegates: For gameplay purposes, both parties will be using a proportional system for delegates, with a 15% threshold. The only exception to this rule is the decisive California Primary, which as in OTL will be Winner Takes All.

3.- Primary Ballot Deadlines: Candidates have until the end of the next turn (January 15th) to file in for the Florida and New Hampshire Primaries. Take notice of the deadlines and plan carefully!

4.- Extra: Primary Polling and random events start next turn. This turn is planned to end in 48 hours, with a 24 hour extension if necessary.
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Lumine
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« Reply #2 on: July 27, 2015, 07:33:17 PM »

Schmitz for President '72
Campaign Staff

Campaign Manager: Zell Miller(D-GA)
Defense Strategist: Former General John Singlaub(R-VA)
Crime and Race Relation Strategist: Former KKK Leader Maximillian Laub(AIP-MS)
Founding Principles Strategist: Cleon Skousen(R-UT)
Economic Strategist: Milton Freidman(L-CA)
Chief Lawyer: Mark Jones(D-IL)
Chief Financial Officer: Patrick Mount-Batten(AIP-ND)

Director of Grassroots Groups
Veterans Grassroots Outreach Officers: Sgt. Jacob Finely USM(AIP-NC) Lt. Col Richard Townshend USAF(D-MT) Chief Esnign John Troph USN(R-MA) Gen. John Patterson USA (IND-VA)
Jewish Voters Grassroots Outreach Officers:Rabbi Shmuel Soitzer(D-NY)

More to Come Soon!!!
Did you run these claims over with Lumine? Because Zell Miller, Milton Friedman and some of these army endorsements directly fly in the face of the game and the law itself.
I'll change those Freidman and The Soliders are all veterans beacuse that's what there title says "Veterans Grassroots Outreach Officers" Veterans don't mean active duty if you didn't know that. And the rest are already secured and speaking of Zell Miller he was the Chief of Staff to the Governor of Georgia at that time I don't think that really is such a high position.
But the Governor of Georgia is a candidate in this game. Zell Miller would obviously back Carter.
Oops I meant Maddox the governor before him. Then miller was unemployed.

For obvious reasons Friedman, Maddox or Miller and the army endorsers are not granted.
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Lumine
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« Reply #3 on: July 27, 2015, 07:43:39 PM »

Sorry, I thought you meant to say Gov. Maddox. And as shown by General Singlaub military personnel is not allowed to campaign for a candidate, hence why I'm not allowing it. I would prefer it if further doubts on this were put on the rules thread, this should be gameplay alone.
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Lumine
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« Reply #4 on: July 28, 2015, 03:51:14 PM »

Right, virtually everyone has posted except Ashbrook (who is on a trip apparently, so I don't count that against him) and Wallace (who is not mandated to post schedules, but I do need his announcement speech now or in one of the next turns).

Turn Two begins in three hours, unless an extension is asked.
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Lumine
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« Reply #5 on: July 28, 2015, 07:07:26 PM »

Turn Two: Raising Hell on January, Part I:
January 9th to January 15th, 1972


1.- Primary Ballot Deadlines: Candidates have until the end of the turn (January 15th) to file in for the Florida and New Hampshire Primaries. Take notice of the deadlines and plan carefully!

2.- Massachuetts Rad/Lib Caucus: A chance for Democratic Anti-War candidates to make their case, the Rad/Lib caucus is open for candidates to speak during Jan. 15th to win its endorsement. Winning the Rad/Lib Caucus brings a major polling boost in Massachusetts, Vermont and New Hampshire, along with volunteers that can be deployed for a caucus one time and for the Massachusetts Primary.

In the News!

Race Riots in Baton Rouge, LA:
Black Liberation Army attack leaves four dead, seventeen injured

Bloodless Coup in Ghana:
Prime Minister Busie deposed by the National Redemption Council

Primary Polling

Gallup: Republican Primary:

Richard Nixon: 72%
Barry Goldwater Jr: 9%
Howard Morgens: 5%
John Ashbrook: 4%
Undecided: 10%

President Nixon starts in a high position in the polls, and in his announcement he struck at the right notes with a general election public not fully convinced that the President deserves four more years in the White House. But in condemning conservative reaction (save for the Schmitz case) Nixon has opened us his flank, and both Morgens and Goldwater have struck at the President's foreign and economic policy. Whether that means a truly serious challenge, we shall see. In the meantime, hawks wonder: Is there anyone willing to escalate the war?

Gallup: Democratic Primary:

Ed Muskie: 28%
John Lindsay: 17%
Sam Yorty: 9%
George McGovern: 8%
Eugene McCarthy: 7%
Mike Gravel: 6%
Jimmy Carter: 3%
Shirley Chisholm: 3%
Undecided: 19%

With key favourites Hubert Humphrey and Ted Kennedy not running (at least for now), the Democratic field was left wide open for candidates with high name recognition, and with a heavy media presence Muskie and Lindsay shot at the top of the polls. Muskie seems to be the choice of establishment democrats, while Lindsay has successfully rallied many liberal and centrist elements. Left dissapointed by Wallace's refusal to run in the primary, many conservatives have joined the ranks of the Yorty campaign, and if the Mayor can sustain a rise in support he could very well become a serious contender.

On the other side of the contenders, the three main anti-war candidates launched their campaigns to some good reception, showing a good deal of potential. The problem is that they share the same voting base, so by contesting the same primaries and caucuses they might very well damage each other. Ending the list we have Congresswoman Shirley Chisholm, who has quickly earned a decent level of support amongst women and minority voters, and Governor Jimmy Carter, who saw a rise in the polls by virtue of being the only actual Southerner in the race.

Random and Player Consecuence Events:

Schmitz denounced by GOP Leaders, Expulsion or Primary Likely:

Despite receiving strong support from John Birch Society members and other prominent far-right figures, Congressman John Schmitz’s bombastic rhetoric has won him the condemnation of many prominent Republicans (including conservatives) over his feud with President Nixon and his extremist views of race. Many have called for Schmitz to be primaries, and there is talk at the Republican National Committee to have him expelled from the party. The few bright spots for Congressman Schmitz from his proposal on English as the national language, which won at least some acceptance on non-hostile conservatives.

Manchester Union Leader blasts Gravel over Washington Papers!

Although he received a rapturous welcome from anti-war voters in his first New Hampshire visits, Senator Mike Gravel has suffered a setback among more moderate voters following a series of harsh attacks by the conservative Manchester Union Leader. Some of the editorials have barely stopped short of charging Gravel with treason over his publishing of the papers on the Congressional Record in 1971, one quoting that “A Gravel victory in New Hampshire could only mean the doom of the Democratic Party at the hands of an unstable and unreliable radical.”

Goldwater finds cold welcome in Iowa:

While Congressman Barry Goldwater Jr. had a strong start in his unlikely challenge to President Nixon, his seemingly pro-peace stance on Vietnam has brought the condemnation of local Iowa GOP officers, who were expecting a conservative challenger to Nixon to take the hawkish stance to end the war. The situation grew worse during a visit to Des Moines, where several groups of voters booed Goldwater Jr. after his stump speeches.
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Lumine
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« Reply #6 on: July 28, 2015, 07:08:02 PM »

Man, that took time to write.

Right, virtually everyone has posted except Ashbrook (who is on a trip apparently, so I don't count that against him) and Wallace (who is not mandated to post schedules, but I do need his announcement speech now or in one of the next turns).

Turn Two begins in three hours, unless an extension is asked.

I am traveling ,so my announcement will be in turn 2 or 3.

Noted, no worries!
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Lumine
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« Reply #7 on: July 28, 2015, 07:19:20 PM »

Candidate Data

Notoriety = N, Organization = O, Finance = F

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Lumine
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« Reply #8 on: July 28, 2015, 07:22:09 PM »

May we get polls for Iowa, Arizona, and New Hampshire on both sides?

Sure. But of course, 1972 Polling was very unreliable, so don't trust the results as truly accurate, they will give more of a general idea.
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Lumine
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« Reply #9 on: July 28, 2015, 07:52:26 PM »

Early States, Tentative Polling:

Gallup: Republican Arizona Caucus:

Richard Nixon: 62%
Barry Goldwater Jr: 21%
Howard Morgens: 3%
John Ashbrook: 2%
Undecided: 12%

Gallup: Republican Iowa Caucus:

Richard Nixon: 66%
Barry Goldwater Jr: 11%
John Ashbrook: 7%
Howard Morgens: 5%
Undecided: 11%

Gallup: New Hampshire Republican Primary:

Richard Nixon: 63%
Howard Morgens: 8%
Barry Goldwater Jr: 7%
John Ashbrook: 5%
Undecided: 17%

Gallup: Democratic Arizona Caucus:

Ed Muskie: 32%
John Lindsay: 23%
George McGovern: 17%
Sam Yorty: 6%
Mike Gravel: 5%
Jimmy Carter: 4%
Eugene McCarthy: 1%
Shirley Chisholm: 1%
Undecided: 11%

Gallup: Democratic Iowa Caucus:

Uncommitted: 27%
Ed Muskie: 26%
George McGovern: 13%
John Lindsay: 9%
Eugene McCarthy: 7%
Jimmy Carter: 4%
Shirley Chisholm: 3%
Sam Yorty: 2%
Mike Gravel: 1%
Undecided: 8%

Gallup: Democratic New Hampshire Primary:

Ed Muskie: 39%
George McGovern: 16%
Sam Yorty: 8%
Eugene McCarthy: 8%
Mike Gravel: 7%
John Lindsay: 5%
Jimmy Carter: 3%
Shirley Chisholm: 1%
Undecided: 13%
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Lumine
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« Reply #10 on: July 29, 2015, 08:31:17 PM »

Right, a few notes.

First, endorsements are limited to three or four per turn and I tend to make research to secure they are somehwat (emphasis there) realistic, so I would ask for players to send limited requests so I can answer faster.

Second, I will not be doing weekly general election polling, as the situation is probably not going to change too dramatically and it takes significant time. GE polling will be monthly, General Primary polling weekly, and state polls will change depending on the week.
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Lumine
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« Reply #11 on: July 30, 2015, 01:06:47 PM »

We still lack six or seven schedules, so this turn ends tomorrow in the afternoon.

Truly astounding work so far, gentlemen!
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Lumine
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« Reply #12 on: July 30, 2015, 09:18:01 PM »

Potus is indeed right. The ad can stand of course, but it will have to be modified to remove that detail.
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Lumine
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« Reply #13 on: July 31, 2015, 02:26:18 PM »

Can we get an extension till midnight?

Of course! I have done the random events, some news and calculated some of the character score, so I'll wait until midnight forum time.
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Lumine
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« Reply #14 on: July 31, 2015, 11:18:40 PM »
« Edited: July 31, 2015, 11:30:38 PM by Lumine »

Right, I believe that's all except for Wallace (who said he will announce soon) and Senator Mathias, who is not mandated to start right away. I'll start the next turn in some minutes, so once I start doing so please refrain from posting before all info is in.

If I counted right, the Florida and New Hampshire Primaries will be contested by all Democratic candidates, and in the GOP field Nixon, Morgens and Goldwater Jr will be contesting as well. Do let me know if there are any mistakes on that.
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Lumine
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« Reply #15 on: August 01, 2015, 01:08:47 AM »
« Edited: August 01, 2015, 10:06:35 AM by Lumine »

Turn Three: Raising Hell on January, Part II:
January 16th to January 22nd, 1972


In the News!

European Common Market to be expanded!
Denmark, Norway, Ireland and the UK to join in 1973, PM Heath "thrilled"

Terrorist Plot in Chicago:
College Students caught trying to poison water supplyl

Soviet Fishing vessels caught on Alaska:
US Coast Guard seized two vessels that had penetrated US territorial waters

Rad/Lib Caucus Results:

George McGovern: 33%
Eugene McCarthy: 21%
Mike Gravel: 20%
Shirley Chisholm: 12%
Jimmy Carter: 8%
Ed Muskie: 4%
John Lindsay: 2%
Sam Yorty: 0%

With a record six candidates on-stage (Mayors Lindsay and Yorty declining to attend), the 1972 Rad/Lib caucus proved to be a massive event with record participation, leading to some interesting results. The trio of McGovern, McCarthy and Gravel proved to be the winners of the night, McGovern enchanting the audience with his delivery and his pledge for immediate withdrawal and an end to the draft, while McCarthy and Gravel scored their own points as well.

Little known Gov. Carter and Rep. Chisholm scored significant upsets with their performances, Carter winning a more than respectable fifth on a more realistic anti-war stance and Chisholm electrifying the room with her own pledges (yet undercut by the lack of a concrete plan on Vietnam).

The clear loser of the night was Senator Edmund Muskie, who showed on stage with the most moderate stance of all, leading the anti-war volunteers to recall his earlier support of the war. Muskie would end up leaving the stage booed and pelted with objects, scoring a very dissapointing 4%. The list would be closed with Mayor Lindsay with 2%, and Mayor Yorty, who barely got any votes due to his hostility towards the peace movement.

Primary Polling

Gallup: Republican Primary:

Richard Nixon: 70 (-2)%
Barry Goldwater Jr: 11% (+2)
Howard Morgens: 7% (+2)
Undecided: 12% (+2)

With Rep. Ashbrook gone from the race and despite talk of a potential challenge to Nixon from Senator Charles Mathias (R-MD), the GOP race is down to three candidates. President Nixon took minor damage from attacks on Vietnam as he pursued a Rose Garden strategy, while Rep. Goldwater and Mr. Morgens did their best to fight back the Presidential machine. Goldwater was succesful in rallying conservative support to Nixon and increase his stance, while Morgens almost achieved a significant breakthrough by organizing an impressive effort in NH and increasing his name recognition via ads. His attempt, however, was halted by a brutal ad from the President's Campaign which ridiculed Morgens's record compared to Nixon's.

Gallup: Democratic Primary:

Ed Muskie: 27 (-1)%
John Lindsay: 17%
Sam Yorty: 11% (+3)
George McGovern: 10% (+2)
Mike Gravel: 8% (+2)
Eugene McCarthy: 7%
Jimmy Carter: 4% (+1)
Shirley Chisholm: 4% (+1)
Undecided: 12% (-7)

There was one clear winner from the past week, and that was none other than Sam Yorty. Using the Baton Rouge riots as his springboard Yorty tapped into a political goldmine with what some in the media have call "the politics of anger". Yorty's tough stance on the law and order and other issues has won the approval of many frustrated blue collar workers, dramatically raising Yorty's profile to make him a serious contender from the conservative wing of the party.

On the moderate/liberal side of the party, Senator Muskie and Mayor Lindsay continue to lead the field, each seeing little change in national polls but significant changes in the early states. Muskie continues to be the choice of the establishment as his machine continues at a great level, only being held back by his "humilliation" at the hands of anti-war voters at the Rad/Lib caucus. Lindsay, on the other part, found great success in Florida with his appeal to elderly voters via healthcare issues, leading many to think the Sunshine State to be the definitive platform for the Mayor.

From the anti-war wing, Senator McGovern raised his profile the most due to his convincing caucus victory, the support brought by two key endorsers and his appeals to non-violence. Senator McCarthy, while seeing no change in national polls, has begun to make effective use of grassroot support to make up for his organizational weaknesses, seeing a rise on Iowa polling. Finally, Senator Gravel took a large gamble by making a massive push towards mounting an organization and increasing his profile. While this catapulted into fifth place as a more than serious contender, the effort has left his finances very exhausted two weeks before the first caucuses and a month and half until the first primaries.

Finally, both Governor Carter and Rep. Chisholm saw polling increases as well. Governor Carter made a smart appeal to the civil rights cause after Baton Rouge and won some visibility on the support of prominent moderates and liberals, while Chisholm made huge gains amongst Democratic women by rallying feminist forces into her campaign.

Random and Player Consecuence Events:

(Don't ask me why, but this time none of the Democrats got a bad or a good random story)

Morgens ridiculed by Nixon Ad:

"Crunch", was the latest ad shown by the Nixon Campaign, portraying the President as a statesman while blasting Morgens for being just a "potato chip salesman", an ad that was very effective at countering the aggressive push that Mr. Morgens had been doing to gain notoriety. While Mr. Morgens wasn't that affected in Florida, it is believed the ad has badly damaged him in Arizona, and might also prove difficult to overcome in New Hampshire.

Goldwater Jr. sails into Arizona!

After a cold reception into Iowa, Rep. Goldwater seems to have found a perfect launch pad for his bid in the state of Arizona, where he has collected the key endorsements of his father and prominent figures like Senator Fannin and Governor Williams. An aggressive Goldwater push into the state cut deeply into Nixon's support there, making the Congressman a more than credible threat in the upcoming caucus.”
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Lumine
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« Reply #16 on: August 01, 2015, 01:14:51 AM »

Primary Candidate Data

Notoriety = N, Organization = O, Finance = F

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Lumine
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« Reply #17 on: August 01, 2015, 01:33:33 AM »

Early States, Tentative Polling:

Gallup: Republican Arizona Caucus:

Richard Nixon: 55%(-7)
Barry Goldwater Jr: 29% (+8)
Howard Morgens: 2% (-1)
Undecided: 18% (+6)

Gallup: Republican Iowa Caucus:

Richard Nixon: 66%
Barry Goldwater Jr: 13% (+1)
Howard Morgens: 6%
Undecided: 16% (+5)

Gallup: New Hampshire Republican Primary:

Richard Nixon: 60% (-3)
Howard Morgens: 16% (+8)
Barry Goldwater Jr: 9% (+2)
Undecided: 15% (-2)

Gallup: Florida Republican Primary:

Richard Nixon: 74%
Howard Morgens: 10%
Barry Goldwater Jr: 5%
Undecided: 9%

Gallup: Democratic Arizona Caucus:

Ed Muskie: 29% (-3)
John Lindsay: 25% (+2)
George McGovern: 17% (-1)
Sam Yorty: 10% (+4)
Mike Gravel: 9% (+4)
Jimmy Carter: 3% (-1)
Eugene McCarthy: 1%
Shirley Chisholm: 1%
Undecided: 5%

Gallup: Democratic Iowa Caucus:

Ed Muskie: 29% (+3)
Uncommitted: 24% (-3)
George McGovern: 14% (+1)
Eugene McCarthy: 10% (+3)
John Lindsay: 8% (-1)
Jimmy Carter: 5% (+1)
Shirley Chisholm: 3%
Sam Yorty: 2%
Mike Gravel: 1%
Undecided: 4 (-4)%

Gallup: Democratic New Hampshire Primary:

Ed Muskie: 38% (-1)
George McGovern: 20% (+3)
Sam Yorty: 11% (+3)
Mike Gravel: 9% (+2)
Eugene McCarthy: 6% (-1)
John Lindsay: 5%
Jimmy Carter: 2% (-1)
Shirley Chisholm: 2% (+1)
Undecided: 9% (-4)

Gallup: Democratic Florida Primary:

Ed Muskie: 27%
John Lindsay: 21%
Jimmy Carter: 8%
Sam Yorty: 7%
Eugene McCarthy: 6%
Shirley Chisholm: 4%
George McGovern: 3%
Mike Gravel: 2%
Undecided: 28%
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Lumine
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« Reply #18 on: August 01, 2015, 01:36:35 AM »

Christ, that took three hours to prepare... I even lost the original file and had to write everything again... anyway, enjoy the turn.
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Lumine
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« Reply #19 on: August 02, 2015, 04:03:49 PM »

Oh, the gloves are coming off... perfect! Please remember this turn ends tomorrow night, unless someone asks for an extension.
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Lumine
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« Reply #20 on: August 02, 2015, 11:26:09 PM »

Oh, the gloves are coming off... perfect! Please remember this turn ends tomorrow night, unless someone asks for an extension.

Wouldn't it be ending tonight?

I've decided to extend it myself, first because I don't have the time to update right away and second because many players have yet to send their schedules.
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Lumine
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« Reply #21 on: August 03, 2015, 09:03:23 PM »


Sure, I can offer a maximum of 24 hours. How much time do you need?
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Lumine
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« Reply #22 on: August 03, 2015, 09:08:24 PM »


PM, I assume? Granted.
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Lumine
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« Reply #23 on: August 04, 2015, 01:49:14 PM »

Right, I'll start posting the next turn as Potus has posted his schedule.
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Lumine
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« Reply #24 on: August 04, 2015, 02:51:16 PM »

Turn Four: Showdown at Iowa and Arizona:
January 23rd to January 29th, 1972


In the News!

Nixon’s latest Vietnam War Peace Proposal shot down:
Despite Kissinger’s efforts, still no end in sight for the war

Former Arizona Senator Carl Hayden dead at 94:
”Silent Senator” passed away four days before the Arizona Caucus

1.- Iowa and Arizona Caucuses: Held on the 24th and the 29th of January, these contests are the first of the primary season, results to be released at the end of the turn. While nowhere near as famous as New Hampshire, these will provide an interesting show of strength and might affect the expectations of the candidates. The Iowa Caucus brings 46 Democratic Delegates and 37 Republican ones, Arizona brings 25 Democrats and 28 Republicans (to qualify for delegates you need at least 15% of the vote, and remember that the Uncommitted Plank is running in the Democratic Iowa Caucus). I’d advise you not to get disenhearted if you don’t win these first battles, they not by any means as decisive as Iowa is today.

2.- Debates and the Next Turn: Next turn will feature the first debate of the game, one for democrats and one for republicans, which candidates may attend if they wish. On that one, I want this game to have a strong sense of momentum, and since February features no primaries Turn Five should cover all four weeks, with extra time to allow you to post schedules. Just letting you know so you can prepare for it!

Primary Polling

Gallup: Republican Primary:

Richard Nixon: 70%
Barry Goldwater Jr: 12% (+1)
Howard Morgens: 7%
Undecided: 11% (-1)

Not a lot of movement here, as Morgens, Goldwater and Nixon begin to prepare for their respective showdown: Nixon keeps his polling stable as he focused his efforts into personal campaign, Morgens throws everything he can into the high publicity New Hampshire Primary and Goldwater begins to put in place an operation that might try to mimic the efforts of his father back in 64’. While Iowa is expected to be a resounding triumph for the Nixon team, the media has picked on a large number of Republican officeholders defecting to Goldwater in Arizona, where his grassroots effort seems poised to score a very high result, which is as valuable as an actual win.

Either way, from here and until New Hampshire casts its votes Nixon will have to prove that he is far from a damaged incumbent, just as Goldwater and Morgens face the very uphill task of proving that they are credible challengers and pretenders to the crown.

Gallup: Democratic Primary:

Ed Muskie: 28% (+1)
John Lindsay: 18% (+1)
Sam Yorty: 13% (+2)
George McGovern: 10%
Mike Gravel: 9% (+1)
Eugene McCarthy: 7%
Jimmy Carter: 4%
Shirley Chisholm: 3% (-1)
Undecided: 8% (-4)

The gloves finally came off in the Democratic Primary, as the various candidates sought to force as many contrasts as possible. Efforts were concentrated on Yorty as he pounded on the rest of the field as “pinkos”, leading to a very public with Senator Muskie as both aired accusations or either being the second coming of Joe McCarthy or Nixon Lite. Ironically, this worked for both in some levels as the threat of Yorty gravitated moderates towards Muskie despite a perceived hypocrisy on his behalf (as many on the left see him indeed as Nixon Lite), and while Yorty severely damaged his chances with more mainstream democrats he continues to pick up the crucial blue collar vote that might decide entire primaries. All candidates continue to work on their ground game, some with better results than others (to give an example, Carter’s attacks on Mayor Lindsay might have not affected his national polling rise at all, but they did hurt him in the eyes of Florida voters).

Pre caucus analysis from the news media talking heads suggests that Muskie is most certainly expected to win Iowa while he battles Lindsay for a nailbiter in Arizona. While Chisholm and Carter are not predicted to make much of an impact in the first two states and thus face no significant expectations, a real battle seems to be emerging amongst McGovern, Gravel and McCarthy to seize the narrative as the most viable anti-war candidate, all of them hoping on different methods to get them through the finish line (although Gravel seems to have staked the most given his dire financial situation and the enormous size of his early operation). And, of course, Mayor Yorty might be able to give a surprise or two, even if he’s not expected to be a significant factor until New Hampshire.

Random and Player Consecuence Events:

Yorty denounced by prominent Democrats:

Despite a steady rise in the polls thanks to his law and order message Mayor Sam Yorty has come under heavy fire by the officers and many financial backers of the Democratic Party, not only because of his now famous “pinko” remarks about most the presidential field, but because many believe Yorty to be a threat now that he is starting to be taken seriously, key officers like Former Vice-President Humphrey not only attacking him, but mobilizing some support against him as well. This is bound to disrupt Yorty’s organizational efforts somewhat.
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