Fear and Loathing in 72’ – The Election Game (GM Vacancy)

[NeverAgain]

McGovern Campaign Schedule, Apr. 5 - 17

Tuesday, Apr 5: ALASKA
Anchorage - Policy Speech on "Aspirations For Us, And Our Children"
Ketchikan - Town Hall
Sitka - Barnstorming

Anchorage, AK

Wednesday, Apr 6: ALASKA
Juneau - Policy Speech on "Southeast Asia: We Must Get Out"
Wasilla - Barnstorming
Seward - Town Hall

Thursday, Apr 7:  ALASKA
Barrow - Town Hall
Kenai - Barnstorming
Fairbanks - Policy Speech on "Every Election Is A Choice, Let's Make The Right One"

Kenai, AK

Friday, Apr 8: HAWAII
Honolulu - Policy Speech on "A Guaranteed Job For All Americans"
Haleiwa - Barnstorming
Kapolei - Town Hall

Honolulu, HI

Saturday, Apr 9:  HAWAII
Kailua - Barnstorming
Mililani - Town Hall
Waipahu - Policy Speech on "Peace and Freedom: The American Dream"

Sunday, Apr 10: HAWAII/ALASKA
Aiea - Barnstorming
Waianae - Town Hall
Honolulu - Final Speech to Campaign Volunteers

Monday, Apr 11: ALASKA/WASHINGTON D.C.
Anchorage - Final Speech to Campaign Volunteers
Washington D.C. - Congressional Duties

Tuesday, Apr 12: D.C./MONTANA
Washington D.C. - Watch Last Nights Results.
Billings - Policy Speech on "The Rights of our Soliders"
Butte - Barnstorming

Wednesday, Apr 13: MONTANA
Missoula - Town Hall
Helena - Policy Speech on "Vietnam: Withdraw On Day One"
Great Falls - Barnstorming

Thursday, Apr 14: MONTANA/IDAHO
Billings - Final Speech to Campaign Volunteers
Twin Falls - Town Hall
Boise - Policy Speech on "Abolish The Draft. NOW."

Billings, MT

Friday, Apr 15: IDAHO
Coeur d'Alene - Town Hall
Pocatello - Policy Speech on "Social Security: Protect Our Seniors"
Nampa - Barnstorming

Pocatello, ID

Saturday, Apr 16:  IDAHO
Idaho Falls - Policy Speech on "Vietnam, 25,000 and Counting"
Meridan - Town Hall
Sand Point - Barnstorming

Sunday, Apr 17: IDAHO/WASHINGTON D.C.
Lewiston - Barnstorming
Boise - Final Speech to Campaign Volunteers
Washington D.C. - Congressional Duties/Watch Caucus Results

Boise, ID

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OOC: Really happy this was my 1,000th post

[Lumine]

Congratulations on the 1000th Post, Never Again!

Results to come shortly, I will be using a simple update instead of a "televised" approach as these are caucuses.

[Lumine]

Caucus Results:

Republican Kansas Caucus:

Richard Nixon: 68.43% (23)
Barry Goldwater Jr: 31.57% (9)

Republican Virginia Caucus:

Richard Nixon: 63.24% (40)
Barry Goldwater Jr: 36.76% (18)

Republican Alaska Caucus:

Richard Nixon: 74.87% (15)
Barry Goldwater Jr: 26.13% (4)

Republican Hawaii Caucus:

Richard Nixon: 83.36% (11)
Barry Goldwater Jr: 16.64% (3)

Republican Idaho Caucus:

Richard Nixon: 62.86% (14)
Barry Goldwater Jr: 37.14% (7)

Republican Montana Caucus:

Richard Nixon: 64.11% (14)
Barry Goldwater Jr: 35.89% (6)

Republican Wyoming Caucus:

Richard Nixon: 67.23% (12)
Barry Goldwater Jr: 32.77% (7)

Republican Utah Caucus:

Richard Nixon: 62.49% (15)
Barry Goldwater Jr: 37.51% (6)

__________________________________________________________________________________

Democratic Kansas Caucus:

Fred Harris: 36.15% (10)
Sam Yorty: 23.65% (8 )
George McGovern: 16.59% (7)
Ed Muskie: 13.06
George Wallace: 10.55%

Democratic Virginia Caucus:

Sam Yorty: 27.21% (19)
Fred Harris: 25.68% (18)
George Wallace: 20.63% (11)
Ed Muskie: 17.09% (10)
George McGovern: 9.39%

Democratic Alaska Caucus:

George McGovern: 44.52% (4)
Ed Muskie: 26.97% (3)
Sam Yorty: 16.24% (2)
Fred Harris: 9.05%
George Wallace: 3.22%

Democratic Hawaii Caucus:

George McGovern: 52.61% (9)
Ed Muskie: 17.12% (3)
Fred Harris: 15.41% (2)
Sam Yorty: 13.09% (2)
George Wallace: 1.77%

Democratic Idaho Caucus:

George McGovern: 27.11% (5)
Sam Yorty: 25.34% (4)
Ed Muskie: 17.67% (3)
Uncommitted: 16.11% (1)
Fred Harris: 9.26%
George Wallace: 4.51%

Democratic Montana Caucus:

George McGovern: 32.21% (4)
Sam Yorty: 27.99% (3)
Ed Muskie: 20.57% (2)
Fred Harris: 15.35% (2)
George Wallace: 3.88%

Democratic Wyoming Caucus:

Sam Yorty: 35.23% (5)
Ed Muskie: 26.25% (4)
George McGovern: 23.31% (3)
Fred Harris: 13.04% (2)
George Wallace: 2.17%

Democratic Utah Caucus:

Sam Yorty: 46.09% (8 )
George McGovern: 20.56% (4)
Ed Muskie: 18.78% (3)
Fred Harris: 11.06%
George Wallace: 3.51%

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[Lumine]

That took way too much time... Right, tomorrow you will have some analysis of the results and the explanation for some that might seem a bit surprising, and then the next turn begins.

[/]

*hughughug*

[MadmanMotley]

Goldwater Jr is suspending his campaign and withholding his endorsement until a later time, he asks his supporters to vote for him in any future primaries or caucuses. He will now run for reelection to his House seat, and will also consider running in 1974 for senate.

OOC: it's been a great run and I'd like to contribute more but school has been rough this semester so I can't put in the time.

[/]

Goldwater Jr is suspending his campaign and withholding his endorsement until a later time, he asks his supporters to vote for him in any future primaries or caucuses. He will now run for reelection to his House seat, and will also consider running in 1974 for senate.

OOC: it's been a great run and I'd like to contribute more but school has been rough this semester so I can't put in the time.

Sorry to see you go.

[Kingpoleon]

Could I enter this race on the Republican or Democratic side?

I'd like to perhaps enter as Amb. John Eisenhower or as Morris Udall.

[Lumine]

Could I enter this race on the Republican or Democratic side?

I'd like to perhaps enter as Amb. John Eisenhower or as Morris Udall.

You can, certainly, next turn is the last one for players to enter the primary season (another dynamic will come up for candidates at the conventions, though). I recommend the Democratic Primary considering that Nixon has a pretty solid lead in delegates hard to overcome, and Udall is indeed open.

As of now you have missed the deadline to compete in primaries up to May 9th, but you can fully compete in caucuses until that date (Vermont, Washington DC, Alabama, Georgia, North Dakota, Mississippi, Louisiana and Connecticut), and wage write-in efforts in primaries (which admittedly is not nearly the same as being on the ballot). From there on, the upcoming turns will allow to file in for the other primaries.

If you choose Udall indeed I'd advise you to make a formal announcement before I post the new turn in three to four hours, so I can include you in polling right away.

Next turn and results analysis to come later today.

[Lumine]

Goldwater Jr is suspending his campaign and withholding his endorsement until a later time, he asks his supporters to vote for him in any future primaries or caucuses. He will now run for reelection to his House seat, and will also consider running in 1974 for senate.

OOC: it's been a great run and I'd like to contribute more but school has been rough this semester so I can't put in the time.

Sad to see you go, MadmanMotley! (at least for now(

[Lumine]

Some Minor Analysis:

That this primary season has been unexpected would be an understatement. It has been a rather open ended contest that, unlike 1968, has actually offered most of the candidates their own shot at winning, and indeed at a stage in which 25% of the delegates have already been selected there were no favorites in delegates like HHH was four years ago. Many have fallen on the road to be replaced by others, as Shirley Chisholm suspended her campaign before New Hampshire; Jimmy Carter withdrew after said primary, Eugene McCarthy endorsed Senator McGovern, Mike Gravel has suspended, and Mayor Lindsay faced a most untimely end a few days ago. His death, and the unexpected re-entry of George Wallace (and amidst rumors of other candidates considering a run as well) put the race into chaos, leaving no less than eight caucuses to scramble for the great chuck of votes left to find.

The clear winner this time was George McGovern, winning four caucuses and coalescing the vote of the left-wing of the Democratic Party (especially it’s anti-war vote) to form a most powerful coalition. In other circumstances McGovern might have not performed as strongly, but the McCarthy endorsement, his low-key approach with popular policy stances and the fact that most of his opponents are moderates or conservatives gave him the edge (because let’s face it, there was a lot of appetite for what McGovern stood for in the 72 Primaries). Second on the list we have Mayor Yorty, threatened by the surge of Harris and Wallace, and who aptly used stellar caucus organization to win three other contests, taking full advantage of his western appeal. That on the bright side, because despite showing he’s here to stay the South is unlikely to give him victories if they have Wallace (whom they trust) as the alternative. Limping behind we have Fred Harris, who suffered from losing voters to Wallace and having states not suited to his candidacy despite great organization, and Ed Muskie, who despite his noted improvements on the campaign trail failed to win a state through enough focus. Both will need victories to keep momentum. Wallace offers an interesting case in the sense that his re-entry and the Yorty strength will keep him weak in the North, but being clever enough to drum on busing and campaign in the South he has an excellent source of delegates there for a sizable bloc of his own.

The Republican Primary is of course much clearer, as Nixon hit it out of the park with an impressive amount of effort in his posts (even more impressive than Yorty and Harris, and that’s staying something) turning a calendar of what should have been hostile states into a triumph as the Goldwater Jr. campaign collapsed on account of Morgens’s intervention and a lack of presence. A candidate may jump in here or in the convention, but Nixon has a decisive edge that makes him almost the inevitable nominee (opening another question, is Ted Agnew going to be the VP nominee for 72?).

[/]

Could I enter this race on the Republican or Democratic side?

I'd like to perhaps enter as Amb. John Eisenhower or as Morris Udall.

But... but... I thought I was done campaigning for now!

[Kingpoleon]

"I am here as a representative from Arizona. My predecessor was my brother, and he served for six years before being appointed to Secretary of the Interior. Now, having served twice as long with half the intelligence in Congress, I think I am quite experienced enough to announce I am running for President. I say to you that I have but twelve years in Congress to base my experience off of - to me, it's felt like a lifetime as a doctor who can't cure his patients." As the audience chuckles, Mo plunges onwards.

"As Lindsay has died, so other will live. The Dream of this great City will live on. The Dream of this great Nation will live on. The Dream of this People will live on, and it will mount against all adversaries." The young man, speaking with a quiet but fervent tone, pauses. "I do not live in a country. I do not live in a province. I do not live under a king. I live in the greatest idea on Earth - America.

"My fellow Americans, we have a lot left to go. Do not be mistaken - I will run this race, always pushing onwards and forwards - as America runs its race. Today, I am here not to become President, but to inspire hope. Do you feel it? Do you feel it? I know I do. I know we do. This is a movement of hope, and maybe, just maybe, it will flare up across the nation! Greed and dispair of the system are at an end!

"Bad times will pass, bad men will die, bad nations will fall - but so long as man lives, so long as freedom lives, in hearts and minds, so long as liberty and justice live, America will live on. I ask you to join and support me - not me, but this movement. This a battle for the heart and soul of America - will you take hope and ideas and trust? Or will we accept the establishment's status quo?

"I know what I will do, what we will do - we will fight for civil rights, for poverty's end, for justice and liberty for all! We will not rage, we will not lose, we will not surrender - every battle there is, we will fight! Prepare the way, America! Because I am here to lead the movement of hope, and because I count on you, the common people, to support me, we will win!

"I am Mo Udall, and we are the People of Hope. I will not need to call others extremists, nor will I insult others. Do not worry. We will prevail. God bless this movement of hope, God bless you, and God bless the United States of America!"

- Morris Udall's announcement speech, New York City, NY

[Lumine]

Turn Eleven: The One where the GM went mad:

April 18th to May 6th, 1972

In the News!

War in Vietnam in trouble

ARVN takes Quang Tri, American warships attacked by North Vietnamese MiG jets, wounding four

J. Edgar Hoover dead!

FBI Director dead after controversial 48 term at the head of organization, Washington DC mourns

Paris Peace Talks suspended indefinetly!

Lê Đức Thọ refuses to budge and walks out, Kissinger humilliated. Will Nixon bomb North Vietnam as he has hinted he will do?

1.- Primares: Yes, I went insane. Originally I wanted you to play a short turn with just MA, PA and VT, but that would have been dull and this game requires momentum rather than twenty useless turns. As a result, this is going to be pure insanity! SIX PRIMARIES, SEVEN CAUCUSES! Mind you, all of them with different dates:

Democrats:

April 25 – Massachusetts (112) and Pennsylvania (147) Primaries, Vermont (10) Caucus
May 2 – Washington DC Caucus (15), Indiana (82) and Ohio (150) Primaries
May 4 - Tennessee Primary (49), Alabama (41) and Georgia (52) Caucuses
May 6 – North Carolina Primary (74), North Dakota (14), Mississippi (32) and Louisiana (34) Caucuses

Republicans:

April 25 – Massachusetts (42) and Pennsylvania (83) Primaries, Vermont Caucus (19)
May 2 – Washington DC Caucus (14), Indiana (54) and Ohio (77) Primaries
May 4 - Tennessee Primary (49), Alabama (27) and Georgia (36) Caucuses
May 6 – North Carolina Primary (64), North Dakota (17), Mississippi (22) and Louisiana (31) Caucuses

2.- Primary Deadline: This week includes deadlines on most of the remaining primaries, save New York. Remember to file in if you want to contest Michigan, Maryland, Oregon, Rhode Island, California and South Dakota. Also, owing to current dynamics and late entrances, George Wallace can only wage write-in campaigns in Massachusetts and Pennsylvania. Likewise, Morris Udall can only field write-in campaigns in Indiana, Ohio, Tennessee and North Carolina.

3.- Special Dynamics!: I'm going all in in this turn, so endorsers for Democratic Primary candidates are increased to six for this turn. Also, the endorsement of Former President Lyndon Johnson is now open. PM me and tell me why you believe your candidate deserves LBJ's coveted endorsement. We will also have a debate!

Primary Polling

Gallup: Republican Primary:

Richard Nixon: 87% (+17)
Barry Goldwater Jr: 11% (-15)
Undecided: 2% (-3)

The GOP race is pretty much over with Goldwater suspending his campaign, all but securing Nixon his victory. While Goldwater Jr has called voters to still write-in his name, only a miracle can stop Richard Nixon now. As a result, I leave it up to darthebearnc if he wishes to strongly contest the upcoming states as there's no challenger. I will not include GOP Primary polling unless he asks for it, because making 13 polls on a race with a single candidate is a bit pointless...

Gallup: Democratic Primary:

George McGovern: 26% (+6)
Sam Yorty: 19% (-3)
Fred Harris: 17% (-2)
Ed Muskie: 17 (-5)
George Wallace: 10%
Morris Udall: 6%
Undecided: 5% (-1)

I don't want people to get the impression I'm punishing players, because Harris and Yorty have been very good lately with their schedules. Why these numbers then? Well, McGovern surges so much because of three reasons: First, he won the McCarthy endorsement, second, he won four caucuses, and third, because until Udall entered he was the sole truly left candidate, whereas Harris, Wallace and Yorty fight for similar voters who weren't as many as these numbers show. So in that sense I try to keep balance between gameplay and realism to the best of my ability, trying not to be unfair (if this was OTL, for example, Wallace entering could have destroyed the Yorty coalition).

In terms of political analysis, the field has been shaken yet again with McGovern stealing the spotlight as the unlikely frontrunner. This means his campaign wins strength and fundraising, but it also opens him out to attacks and greater expectations, so to keep that place he'll have to do well during this crucial week. Harris and Yorty are weakened by the new entries, but they continue to pick up some victories and there's plenty of strength left in them to get to the top if circumstances are right. Muskie improved his schedules a lot and he is strong in delegates, but he hasn't won a state until Iowa, and failure to do so means he goes down in the polls. Wallace is essentially weak in the north and west since those voters stick to Yorty, but he has a real shot at the South states this turn to make a name for himself. Last we have Morris Udall both as a populist and a liberal, meaning he is drawing from McGovern and Muskie, and Harris in a lesser way. He is low in the polls as newcomer, but good performances and a wise use of his resources despite limited ballot access also give him a certain fighting chance.

[Lumine]

Primary Candidate Data

Notoriety = N, Organization = O, Finance = F

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[/]

Hi!

It's fine if there aren't any primary polls, but I would like to know if I'm losing in any of the upcoming primary/caucus states or if my winning margin is small (i.e. <7 pts).

Or basically just whether or not you're going to let me win all the states without campaigning (I think I'll go insane if I have to do what I did last round again ).

Thanks!

[YPestis25]

So let's say I pull a hail Mary in one of the early primary states this turn. Would that increase my numbers in the upcoming contests even though there isn't a turn in between?

[/]

The Nixon Campaign

President Nixon files for the contests in Michigan, Maryland, Oregon, Rhode Island, California and South Dakota, as well as all other contests he is currently able to file for.

President Nixon has to sleep on the couch after calling his wife a "potato" one night.

President Nixon requests the endorsement of Barry Goldwater, Sr.

[Lumine]

Early States, Tentative Polling:

Gallup: Democratic Massachusetts Primary:

George McGovern: 46%
Ed Muskie: 23%
Fred Harris: 16%
Sam Yorty: 9%
Undecided: 6%

Gallup: Democratic Pennsylvania Primary:

Fred Harris: 27%
Ed Muskie: 22%
George McGovern: 21%
Sam Yorty: 20%
Undecided: 10%

Gallup: Democratic Vermont Caucus:

Ed Muskie: 28%
George McGovern: 26%
Morris Udall: 16%
Fred Harris: 12%
Sam Yorty: 6%
George Wallace: 3%
Undecided: 9%

Gallup: Democratic Washington DC Caucus:

Uncommitted: 25%
Morris Udall: 21%
George McGovern: 16%
Ed Muskie: 14%
Fred Harris: 14%
Sam Yorty: 2%
George Wallace: 1%
Undecided: 7%

Gallup: Democratic Ohio Primary:

George McGovern: 27%
Ed Muskie: 22%
Fred Harris: 18%
Sam Yorty: 15%
George Wallace: 8%
Undecided: 10%

Gallup: Democratic Indiana Primary:

Fred Harris: 26%
George McGovern: 20%
Ed Muskie: 18%
Sam Yorty: 16%
George Wallace: 10%
Undecided: 10%

Gallup: Democratic Tennessee Primary:

George Wallace: 40%
Sam Yorty: 25%
Fred Harris: 15%
Ed Muskie: 7%
George McGovern: 6%
Undecided: 7%

Gallup: Democratic Alabama Caucus:

George Wallace: 64%
Sam Yorty: 17%
Fred Harris: 6%
Ed Muskie: 4%
George McGovern: 2%
Undecided: 7%

Gallup: Democratic Georgia Caucus:

George Wallace: 46%
Sam Yorty: 23%
Fred Harris: 18%
Ed Muskie: 8%
George McGovern: 5%
Morris Udall: 3%
Undecided: 7%

Gallup: Democratic North Carolina Primary:

George Wallace: 31%
Sam Yorty: 28%
Fred Harris: 18%
Ed Muskie: 10%
George McGovern: 7%
Undecided: 5%

Gallup: Democratic North Dakota Caucus:

George McGovern: 47%
Morris Udall: 19%
Fred Harris: 16%
Ed Muskie: 6%
Sam Yorty: 6%
George Wallace: 2%
Undecided: 4%

Gallup: Democratic Mississippi Caucus:

George Wallace: 38%
Sam Yorty: 23%
Fred Harris: 10%
George McGovern: 9%
Ed Muskie: 8%
Morris Udall: 7%
Undecided: 5%

Gallup: Democratic Louisiana Caucus:

George Wallace: 31%
Sam Yorty: 28%
Fred Harris: 15%
Ed Muskie: 9%
George McGovern: 7%
Morris Udall: 4%
Undecided: 6%

[Lumine]

So let's say I pull a hail Mary in one of the early primary states this turn. Would that increase my numbers in the upcoming contests even though there isn't a turn in between?

It would, yes! There is a certain domino effect for the early states as they gradually mount, although just how much influence early victories have depend on the candidate, margin of victory and a few adjustments I make with a number randomizer.

Hi!

It's fine if there aren't any primary polls, but I would like to know if I'm losing in any of the upcoming primary/caucus states or if my winning margin is small (i.e. <7 pts).

Or basically just whether or not you're going to let me win all the states without campaigning (I think I'll go insane if I have to do what I did last round again ).

Thanks!

No margin of danger, Dar, not even in Alabama. As it stands, OTL Nixon didn't lose a single state to two declared candidates, so even if some Goldwater Jr supporters write-in my policy is that you won't lose a state if there's no actual challenger (you might lose delegates if those write-in are more than 15% in some places).

Also, all of this took a long time (especially polling, which is hell), so the debate questions will come up tomorrow. You have exactly one week, until the afternoon of the 1st of October to post your schedules. I grant a week because the efforts involved here will probably be rather large, but there will be no extensions. By 10 PM or so forum time that day, results will arrive one way or another.

[PPT Spiral]

McGovern never filed for Massachusetts or Pennsylvania.

[/]

McGovern never filed for Massachusetts or Pennsylvania.

I have a feeling you were eagerly waiting to reveal this for a while.

Anyway, #plottwist

[Lumine]

McGovern never filed for Massachusetts or Pennsylvania.

#plottwist'72

Are you sure? I do have him on the ballot list, but I suppose I'll have to check.

[PPT Spiral]

McGovern never filed for Massachusetts or Pennsylvania.

#plottwist'72

Are you sure? I do have him on the ballot list, but I suppose I'll have to check.

Yeah. I looked at all of NeverAgain's posts during that turn when we filed for those primaries and he never mentioned anything about it.

[PPT Spiral]

The McGovern Campaign Applies for all Caucuses and Primaries available. I just got off school, and will be posting in the next couple of minutes after researching it. Thanks for the extension, again.

Srry Spiral, he did.

That was for this last turn when we had all those Southern states. The turn before that was when filing for MA and PA was open.