Fear and Loathing in 72’ – The Election Game (GM Vacancy)

[Lumine]

Primary Candidate Data

Notoriety = N, Organization = O, Finance = F

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[Lumine]

Early States, Tentative Polling:

Gallup: Republican Arizona Caucus:

Richard Nixon: 56% (+1)
Barry Goldwater Jr: 34% (+5)
Howard Morgens: 2%
Undecided: 8%

Gallup: Republican Iowa Caucus:

Richard Nixon: 68% (+2)
Barry Goldwater Jr: 14% (+1)
Howard Morgens: 6%
Undecided: 13% (-3)

Gallup: New Hampshire Republican Primary:

Richard Nixon: 61% (+1)
Howard Morgens: 19% (+3)
Barry Goldwater Jr: 8% (-1)
Undecided: 12% (-3)

Gallup: Democratic Arizona Caucus:

Ed Muskie: 27% (-2)
John Lindsay: 27% (+2)
George McGovern: 18% (+1)
Sam Yorty: 12% (+2)
Mike Gravel: 11% (+2)
Jimmy Carter: 2% (-1)
Eugene McCarthy: 1%
Shirley Chisholm: 1%
Undecided: 2% (-3)

Gallup: Democratic Iowa Caucus:

Ed Muskie: 28% (-1)
Uncommitted: 22 (-2)%
George McGovern: 15% (+1)
Eugene McCarthy: 13% (+3)
John Lindsay: 10 (+2)%
Jimmy Carter: 5%
Shirley Chisholm: 3%
Sam Yorty: 1%
Mike Gravel: 1%
Undecided: 2% (-2)

Gallup: Democratic New Hampshire Primary:

Ed Muskie: 36% (-1)
George McGovern: 21% (+1)
Sam Yorty: 11%
Mike Gravel: 8% (-1)
Eugene McCarthy: 7% (+1)
John Lindsay: 4% (-1)
Jimmy Carter: 3% (+1)
Shirley Chisholm: 2%
Undecided: 9%

Gallup: Democratic Florida Primary:

Ed Muskie: 25% (-2)
John Lindsay: 18 (-3)%
Jimmy Carter: 11% (+3)
Eugene McCarthy: 9% (+3)
Sam Yorty: 8% (+1)
Mike Gravel: 4% (+2)
 Shirley Chisholm: 3% (-1)
George McGovern: 2% (-1)
 Undecided: 20% (-8)

[Lumine]

I take it an extension until tomorrow will be needed?

[Lumine]

Sure, tomorrow afternoon or night it is.

[Lumine]

About 20 minutes left before I go with the results.

[Lumine]

About 20 minutes left before I go with the results.

I know it's lazy and bad, but I'd like to repeat my schedule from last week with changes to the town's. All New Hampshire, all the time.

Sure. It won't have much of an impact, but it won't hurt polling numbers.

And that's all for now, results will come in soon!

[Lumine]

ABC News Special, Jan 29th, 1972:

Smith: Evening, this is Howard K. Smith from ABC News from Washington, brining you an update on the 1972 Presidential Race. This week saw another candidate dropping out of the race before the primaries, this time being Congresswoman Shirley Chisholm, ending her bid due to poor fundraising despite making quite an impact during her two-week effort for the presidency. While being low profile, the Arizona and Iowa caucuses have been strongly contested by several candidates, and they bring special significance to frontrunners Edmund Muskie and Richard Nixon, as their position depends on their ability to beat expectations and crush their many rivals. So let’s take a look at the results released by the Democratic and Republican HQ’s.

Republican Iowa Caucus:

Richard Nixon: 73.79% (30)
Barry Goldwater Jr: 17.98% (7)
Howard J. Morgens: 8.23%

Democratic Iowa Caucus:

Ed Muskie: 26.19% (17)
Uncommitted: 18.01% (10)
George McGovern: 17.60% (10)
Eugene McCarthy: 16.78% (9)
John Lindsay: 12.56%
Jimmy Carter: 6.11%
Mike Gravel: 1.34%
Sam Yorty: 0.89%
Shirley Chisholm: 0.42%

Smith: So there you have it, a convincing victory for President Nixon against Congressman Goldwater, who nonetheless managed to clinch seven delegates for the Republican Convention. Mr. Morgens barely campaigned in the state, but he got a respectable 8% mostly due to news coverage and ads. On the Democratic side Senator Muskie was the clear winner, yet his margin of victory is slightly underwhelming considering he only got seventeen delegates. There was a brutal fight between McGovern, McCarthy and the Uncommitted slate for second and third, and in the end McGovern would barely prevail for third. Closing the field comes Lindsay with a strong 12%, and Governor Carter with a more than surprising 6% despite minimum efforts. Closing the field we have negligible showings for Mike Gravel, Sam Yorty and Congresswoman Chisholm, who remained on the ballot. Let’s go to Arizona now:

Republican Arizona Caucus:

Richard Nixon: 57.16% (17)
Barry Goldwater Jr: 39.82% (11)
Howard Morgens: 3.02%

Democratic Arizona Caucus:

John Lindsay: 27.06% (8 )
Sam Yorty: 20.12% (6)
Mike Gravel: 17.81% (6)
Ed Muskie: 17.73% (5)
George McGovern: 13.23%
Jimmy Carter: 3.60%
Eugene McCarthy: 0.34%
Shirley Chisholm: 0.11%

Smith: I… eh… truly surprising results given the opinion polls, I must say. The main story has to be the Arizona Caucus here, we were hearing Congressman Goldwater was putting in place quite an operation, but to upstage the President and almost win 40% of the vote? It’s not as serious as the McCarthy result in New Hampshire last election since it’s a low profile caucus, but this spells trouble for the Nixon campaign, as Goldwater can now claim to be a more than serious challenger. The question is, of course, whether he can make inroads in New Hampshire, where Mr. Morgens has a lot of advantage.

(Cheering from the Goldwater HQ, we see Goldwater Sr and Jr celebrating)

Smith: The Democratic Caucus is also a large story, because Senator Muskie has been quite upstaged as well. Despite polls putting him head to head with Mayor Lindsay it seems his efforts have collapsed due to a lack of serious effort until the last week, strong "Nixon-lite" attacks and due tostrong Yorty and Gravel operations, leaving not only the New York Mayor the true winner of the night, but Sam Yorty in… second place. Mike Gravel also steals the anti-war crown for McGovern, leaving Muskie as low as fourth in what could have been a victory for him. Whether these results will change the dynamic of the race remain to be seen, but the first page of the 1972 spells a challenge for Richard Nixon… and trouble for Ed Muskie.

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[Lumine]

That took a lot of time to calculate, so I hope you enjoy the results. Turn Five begins later today, and remember that said turn will cover the entire month of February, so be prepared!

[Lumine]

Turn Five: Fear and Loathing in New Hampshire:

January 30th to February 28, 1972

In the News!

Nixon goes to China!

Historic eight day visit to Beijing, Nixon first President to visit China

"Bloody Sunday" shocks the United Kingdom:

Thirteen dead after paratroopers shot unarmed protestors

Paris Peace Talks more and more unlikely to succeed

North Vietnamese delegation walks out to protest increasing air raids on Hanoi:

1.- February 1972 As you noticed, this turn covers the entire month of February. I decided to proceed that way because no primaries or caucuses were held here, and having five consecutive turns without anything important will probably kill the momentum we have been able to keep. Because of that, you have five days to plan your schedules, given that this turn includes debates and the early work to win New Hampshire and Florida.

2.- Illinois Primary: February 28th is the deadline to file in for the March 21st Illinois Primary, so if you are planning to contest it, please don't forget to file-in in your schedule.

3.- Special Endorser: William Loeb: The first special endorser has been unblocked! Normally I would allow players to contest it, but given the field and his performance so far Spiral easily wins the support of William Loeb and the Manchester Union Leader. Loeb supported Yorty in OTL, and here he would be even more supportive. That said, this just covers the Democratic side, Goldwater Jr and Morgens can apply for the Loeb endorsement for their respective primary. Spiral's reward is a large polling boost for the next turn, and a special bonus I will have to tell him in private.

4.- Nixon in China: As you know, Richard Nixon visited China from February 21st to February 28th, and as a result he won't be able to campaign that week. On the other hand, he will get positive media coverage for the trip, so this historical event is to be taken as a balanced  one (Nixon's gameplay is dimished, but he gets extra support).

Gallup: President Nixon's Approval Rating:

Approve: 50% (+1)
Disapprove: 41% (+2)
Undecided: 9% (-3)

Gallup: 1972 Presidential Election:

Generic Democrat: 41% (+1)

Richard M. Nixon: 40% (-1)
 George Wallace: 11% (-1)
John G. Schmitz: 1-2% (+-1)
Undecided: 6%

Primary Polling

Gallup: Republican Primary:

Richard Nixon: 67% (-3)
Barry Goldwater Jr: 19% (+7)
Howard Morgens: 6% (-1)
Undecided: 8% (-3)

It's Barrymentum for the Republicans as conservatives get fired up over the shocking Arizona result. Goldwater Jr. is now being taken seriously by many primary voters (especially those angry over the China overture), which means his polling rises. On the other hand, a failure to meet the expectations of being a credible challenger would cause a lot of damage to his campaign. While Goldwater comes out of Arizona swinging, he also faces a strategic dilemma: Howard Morgens has been investing his time and resources into the high profile New Hampshire, holding a lot of advantage over the conservative challenger.

Gallup: Democratic Primary:

Ed Muskie: 27% (-1)
John Lindsay: 21% (+3)
Sam Yorty: 14%
George McGovern: 11% (+1)
Mike Gravel: 10% (+1)
Eugene McCarthy: 8% (+1)
Jimmy Carter: 4%
Undecided: 6% (-2)

The barrage of attacks continue, as the reaction towards Yorty keep his national momentum down. Lindsay is the clear winner here, as the failure of Muskie to keep expectations up makes him vulnerable to the New York Mayor as a more than credible runner-up. The ones with the higher dilemma are, of course, the anti-war trio, as they fight for the same votes and in doing so they divide their own support. New Hampshire will certainly be crucial as Muskie needs to win there, just as one of the anti-war trio needs to come out on top if they are to claim the momentum.

Random and Player Consecuence Events:

Lindsay faces positive coverage, polling and fundraising surge:

Riding high in the polls today is New York City Mayor John Lindsay, who convincingly won the Arizona caucus to become the likely liberal/moderate alternative to Senator Ed Muskie. The news media have been giving increased coverage to the Mayor as the New Hampshire and Florida Primaries near, with the consecuence of significantly improving Lindsay's chances moving ahead on the calendar.

[Lumine]

Primary Candidate Data

Notoriety = N, Organization = O, Finance = F

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[Lumine]

Early States, Tentative Polling:

Gallup: Florida Republican Primary:

Richard Nixon: 68% (-6)
Barry Goldwater Jr: 13% (+8)
Howard Morgens: 9% (-1)
Undecided: 10% (+1)

Gallup: New Hampshire Republican Primary:

Richard Nixon: 60% (-1)
Howard Morgens: 19%
Barry Goldwater Jr: 12% (+4)
Undecided: 9% (-3)

Gallup: Democratic New Hampshire Primary:

Ed Muskie: 33% (-3)
George McGovern: 20% (-1)
Sam Yorty: 13% (+2)
Eugene McCarthy: 11% (+4)
Mike Gravel: 8%
John Lindsay: 6% (+2)
Jimmy Carter: 4% (+1)
Undecided: 5% (-4)

Gallup: Democratic Florida Primary:

Ed Muskie: 25%
John Lindsay: 21% (+3)
Jimmy Carter: 12% (+1)
Eugene McCarthy: 9%
Sam Yorty: 9% (+1)
Mike Gravel: 5% (+1)
George McGovern: 1% (-1)
Undecided: 18% (-2)

Gallup: Tentative Democratic Illinois Primary:

Ed Muskie: 35%
John Lindsay: 20%
Mike Gravel: 10%
Sam Yorty: 7%
George McGovern: 5%
Eugene McCarthy: 4%
Jimmy Carter: 2%
Undecided: 17%

[Lumine]

And the debate comes tomorrow. Enjoy!

[Lumine]

Screw it, let's have it anyway:

Presidential Primary Debates:

(Candidates of both parties invited to participate, but not doing so will not hurt polling numbers)

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[Lumine]

Can Fred Harris file for the Illinois primary? (Late entry into the race)

Most certainly, Senator, happy to welcome another player into the race!

EDIT: As long as you deliver your announcement speech you will be counted as an official candidate.

[Lumine]

I will just note that in the start of the turn I said Nixon would be on the OTL China trip, so the final week of that schedule won't be able to count for game purposes.

[Lumine]

Withdrawing to endorse Ashbrook. Time is getting crunched and my heart isn't really in the campaign anymore.

Ashbrook already dropped out.

Goldwater, oops.

Thank you for the endorsement, btw, when does this turn end?

Thursday.

[Lumine]

The Yorty campaign will file for the Illinois primary.

Also, Lumine, may we get a week to complete everything instead of five days? I have been traveling since Saturday and have had almost no time for this so far.

No problem, I realize the turn does involve a lot of effort. This will end on Saturday afternoon instead, Friday if people have been able to post their schedules early.

[Lumine]

Watch returns at Fountainbleu Hotel in Miami, Florida-prepare possible exit/endorsement speech.

Just a remainder to be careful with the primary schedule, there's no primary or caucus on the 28th (New Hampshire actually comes next turn).

This ends tomorrow, BTW!

[Lumine]

Just Got Back From Work, My Stuff will be here in a couple of hours! Sorry guys, my life has been a little stressful the past few days!

I don't mind waiting a few hours, NeverAgain, don't worry!

[Lumine]

Marvellous work, gentlemen, I believe all players have indeed sent their schedules. Turn Six will be up soon.

[Lumine]

Turn Six: Live Free or Die:

March 1st to March 7th, 1972

In the News!

Pioneer 10 launched from Cape Kennedy

Space probe on the march to Jupiter, expected to take pictures in 73'

"English Bill" killed on the House, Schmitz to face primary

Despite Southern Dems support Schmitz efforts are shot down by GOP leadership, moderate Andrew Hinshaw to challenge him to a primary

Terrorist Plot foiled in TWA Flight 7

Plane lands on New York City under bomb threat, explosive defused within minutes of explosion

1.- New Hampshire Primary: Yes, the NH Primary, the former Kingmaker of 1968. While pundits expect Nixon and Muskie to win these contests with a healthy margin, all candidates on the ballot are face expectations to beat, save for a few exceptions like the late entrance of Senator Fred Harris. Both parties will have 22 delegates up for grabs here.

2.- Illinois Ballot Access: All Democratic Candidates will be on the Illinois Ballot, although the Republicans made a ridiculous blunder by not even filing in. As a result the Illinois primary will only have an "uncommitted" slate up for voting.

Gallup: President Nixon's Approval Rating:

Approve: 56% (+6)
Disapprove: 32% (-9)
Undecided: 12% (+3)

Gallup: 1972 Presidential Election:

Richard M. Nixon: 43% (+3)
Generic Democrat: 38% (-3)
George C. Wallace: 10% (-1)
John G. Schmitz: 2% (+1)
Undecided: 6%

Primary Polling

Gallup: Republican Primary:

Richard Nixon: 71% (+4)
Barry Goldwater Jr: 24% (+5)
Undecided: 5% (-3)

Nixon's trip to China does enrage conservatives, but it brings a lot of added benefits to moderates and liberals, boosting him on the polls. Goldwater won the Morgens endorsement and had good fundraising, but he did himself no favors on the Republican debate by allowing Nixon to look more statesmanlike and specially for making the crucial mistake of calling for amnesty, a move that has brought condemnation from the conservative wing. All in all and despite virtually losing the 102 Illinois delegates by not filing in, Nixon is in a good spot as long as he can defeat Goldwater on decent margins.

Gallup: Democratic Primary:

Ed Muskie: 23% (-4)
John Lindsay: 23% (+2)
Sam Yorty: 13% (-2)
George McGovern: 13% (+2)
Mike Gravel: 9% (-1)
Eugene McCarthy: 7% (-1)
Fred Harris: 5%
Jimmy Carter: 3% (-1)
Undecided: 4% (-2)

Fred Harris's entrance to the race shakens things up, as his appeal garners losses from Muskie, Gravel, and specially from Carter, with populist message resounding through the Midwest. Muskie continues to put on brave efforts, but the continuous attacks from his fellow democrats, many rumours launched from the newspapers (more on this later) and a lackuster message take their toll, allowing a focused Mayor Lindsay to tie him for second (and ony failing to surpass him due to attacks on the Mayor as well.

The case of Sam Yorty is a paradox, as he picks up support on several states yet he has been systematically set on fire by most of his opponents, greatly hurting his national polling. Finally, Senator McGovern scores a triumph in the debate by giving the right tone and this justifies as surge for him as a leading anti-war voice, but his efforts on early states see him with less of an increase as his attention is divided over too many states.

Random and Player Consecuence Events:

McGovern wins debate, surges nationally:

The first Democratic Presidential debate was aired by PBS and thus it wasn't seen much outside of New Hampshire, yet the national coverage of it brought rather positive results. All the candidates sought to find their own voice at the debate stage, Muskie and Yorty being the most attacked during the entire ordeal. With Carter, Gravel and McCarthy not making much of an impression Lindsay and Harris gave strong performances, yet it was Senator McGovern who scored victory. Striking a unity tone improved his national image, allowing him to rise on polling.

McCarthy's fundraising crippled:

The past weeks have not been kind to Senator McCarthy, as a lack of donors following his opening of expensive offices in early primary states has crippled his fundraising and strained his organization. Staffers and volunteers still believe McCarthy's campaign will take off as more grassroots support is mobilized, but these news spell trouble for the Minnesota Senator.

Carter blasted on experience, embarassed by "Billy" Carter:

Governor Carter has hit trouble following a strong campaign in Florida, as many who have taken notice to his insurgent campaign have attacked the Governor for his lack of experience and for apparent belief that he will not come close to winning the nomination. Matters were more complicated as the Governor's brother, Billy Carter, was caught by Rolling Stone reporter Hunter S. Thompson trying to urinate on other members of the press. The news have damaged the public image of the Carter campaign.

Goldwater loses debate, conservatives react badly to amnesty:

To the shock of many Richard Nixon accepted to hold his first true debate since his epic match with John F. Kennedy in 1960, and to the surprise of many his gamble payed off handsomely. New Hampshire voters saw Nixon as a very statesmanlike candidate, striking a tone of moderation and competence which contrasted with a more fiery Barry Goldwater Jr. The matter that eventually resolved the debate for Nixon was when Representative Goldwater came out in support of amnesty, a move that brought him support from the anti war left, yet strong criticism from the conservative Republicans. As a result, the Manchester Union Leader declined to endorse Goldwater.

[Lumine]

Primary Candidate Data

Notoriety = N, Organization = O, Finance = F

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[Lumine]

Early States, Tentative Polling:

Gallup: Florida Republican Primary:

Richard Nixon: 66% (-2)
Barry Goldwater Jr: 23% (+10)
Undecided: 11% (+1)

Gallup: New Hampshire Republican Primary:

Richard Nixon: 65% (+5)
Barry Goldwater Jr: 24% (+12)
Undecided: 16% (+7)

Gallup: Democratic New Hampshire Primary:

Ed Muskie: 30% (-3)
George McGovern: 22% (+2)
Sam Yorty: 18% (+5)
Eugene McCarthy: 12% (+1)
Mike Gravel: 8% (-1)
John Lindsay: 5% (-1)
Jimmy Carter: 3% (-1)
Undecided: 2% (-3)

Gallup: Democratic Florida Primary:

Ed Muskie: 27% (+2)
John Lindsay: 23% (+2)
Jimmy Carter: 15% (+3)
Sam Yorty: 12% (+3)
Eugene McCarthy: 10 (+1)%
Mike Gravel: 6% (+1)
Undecided: 7% (-11)

Gallup: Tentative Democratic Illinois Primary:

Ed Muskie: 31% (-4)
John Lindsay: 22% (+2)
Fred Harris: 13%
Mike Gravel: 9% (-1)
Eugene McCarthy: 6% (+2)
George McGovern: 6% (+1)
Sam Yorty: 6% (-1)
Jimmy Carter: 4% (+2)
Undecided: 3% (-14)

[Lumine]

This turn will last three days. Tomorrow on we will also have a special event!

[Lumine]

I might be wrong, but I am pretty sure I filed for Illinois a few turns back. I might have meant to do it and not have written it in my post, but I seem to remember doing so.

I'm not sure if I recall that, but as I've explained before deadlines are open on certain turns, which I why I would not acknowledge if one were to, say, announce that he was filing in for all primaries on turn one.