Fear and Loathing in 72’ – The Election Game (GM Vacancy)

[Lumine]

This ends in an hour or so.

Could we get a couple extra minutes to run some ads? Sorry, I'd been away from my computer for most of the day and forgot to check this.

Sure, there's no way I could post the results as I'm working on the other game as well, so an extra hour is available (no more).

[Lumine]

Turn Eighteen up in either a couple of hours or tomorrow afternoon, depends on how fast I can finish.

[Lumine]

First Presidential Debate, Results:

Final Scores:
Richard Nixon: +18
Edmund Muskie: +17
John Schmitz: +2

To say that the stakes were high before the Philadelphia debate would be to put it mildly. Across the nation and as September developed challengers Muskie and Schmitz needed a break out against a President Nixon still leading in the polls despite taking sustained hits on the corruption scandals of former Vice-President Agnew and his own divisive selection of Sam Yorty as his VP. Likewise, Nixon needed to secure his position in the polls, and he took the unexpected gamble to take part in the debate, perhaps emboldened by his decisive rout of Barry Goldwater Jr. before the New Hampshire Primary. As Muskie, Nixon and Schmitz met in Philadelphia on September 15th, millions of Americans tuned in to see the first GE presidential debate since 1960, as well as the first to include three candidates.

It was Vietnam that came up first, making for the most decisive and heated part of the debate. Fresh from a powerful opening statement by playing up the populist sentiment, Schmitz pick his first battle by being bold. To the shock of many Americans, he questioned the military service of his rivals and channeled his inner Goldwater by calling for the sudden escalation of the war, giving a response that many considered confusing and even worrying at some levels. Muskie seized the ground first, charging at the Congressman for his false claim on military service and firing up his liberal base by effectively calling for an end to the war. Alas, it was Nixon who truly shone. Touting his foreign policy record and knowledge, blasting Muskie and eviscerating Schmitz, Nixon scored a major hit and decisively won the first part of the debate.

Up next was Health Care, with Congressman Schmitz leading the charge once again. Sadly for him, his response on the area proved more confusing, taking a detour on the environment and making insistent charges of socialism against his rivals. It was left for Muskie and Nixon to battle each other to what many saw as a draw on the issue, with Muskie once again firing up his base with his calls for universal healthcare and Nixon successfully staking up the center with a moderate stance. While Nixon seemed to have the edge first, accusations of hypocrisy and negative references to Ted Kennedy did not have the desired effect with some swing voters, giving Muskie the edge on the issue.

The third issue to the fought was that of busing, and it was here that Schmitz – who many wrote off after blundering on Vietnam and Health Care- finally broke through. On one side, his apparent pro-confederate stance alienates voters up North and many be seen as too forceful (indeed, a different way of making the case might have yielded even better results), but on the other, Busing is an issue that draws visceral reactions, and whether they want to admit it or not there are many voters can’t help but agree with Schmitz, especially through a South still wary of the main tickets. Nixon had a strong performance as well by delivering some key shots on Muskie, yet his cautious stance would not deliver a win for him.

Lastly, it was left for various issues to be debated by the candidates. Schmitz put his strengths and weaknesses in evidence by speaking up on the viability of his candidacy, successfully rallying his base through a powerfully populist message while blasting Nixon and Muskie on their own connections, yet failing to ultimately look suitably presidential and seal the deal. Nixon went initially strong on his defence of his running mate and his denunciation of the Democratic Party, until he blundered on a claim that a majority of Democratic primary voters had wanted Nixon, whereas the Mayor had never surpassed 30% in opinion polls. Indeed, what saved Nixon was that both of his challengers gave him a free pass on the issue, allowing him not to take major damage. Muskie, despite having missed a chance to blast Nixon on Yorty, delivered a strong defense of his values and, above all, the continuation of Democratic policies and a legacy which are reassuring to many who considered defection not long ago – or those who defected to Nixon and were turned off by the GOP’s constant attacks on their party.

All in all, consensus showed that the debate was seen as a virtual tie between President Nixon and Senator Muskie (both of whom won their respective primary debates), with Nixon being granted a small edge over his challenger on account of his major hit on the Vietnam issue. Schmitz missed the chance to make a national breakout and damaged himself with swing voters across the Northern states, but – ironically – many of those statements (and particularly his busing stance) struck a chord with many southern voters, with his campaign expected to face some degree of a surge across the region. Broadly speaking, Muskie (who has been criticized by his party by not being aggressive enough) is expected to make gains across New England and more liberal states, whereas Nixon’s performance may help him to hold the line or make some gains in the Midwest.

[Lumine]

Turn Nineteen: Ask Not For Whom the Bell Tolls:

September 16th to September 22nd, 1972

In the News!

Presidential Debate a Tie!

Nixon and Muskie battle it out as the President gains a small edge on Vietnam

Comeback of the South?

From safe region to battleground, is Schmitz's southern surge real?

American POW's released by North Vietnam:

Lt. Norris Charles, Lt. Markham Garley and Mj. Edward Elias released in Hanoi, first POW release since 69'

John Lennon's residence in danger?

"Imagine" AD and Lennon's support for Muskie enrages Nixon loyalists, Sen. Thurmond to lobby Justice Dep. for his deportation

Gallup: 1972 Presidential Election:

Richard Nixon/Sam Yorty: 49% (+1) (301 EV)
Ed Muskie/Birch Bayh: 43% (+1) (120 EV)
John Schmitz/John Rarick: 6% (+1) (0 EV)
Undecided: 2% (-3) (117 EV)

Going by the debate and looking at the national polls conducted in the aftermath of the week, pundits were fooled at first by the numbers, as the nationa swing showed the undecided voters in an unprecedented decrease as all three candidates faced surges, whereas most predicted Nixon's surge to be stronger and Schmitz to decrease. Yet the numbers hid the crucial regional swings that were taking place, with Schmitz losing heavily across the North only to make up for those voters (and even increase them) on an unexpected Southern surge, making what looked like safe states on the surface actual battlegrounds for the time being. Likewise, Nixon surge and actually sprinted ahead of Muskie in a couple of the swing states, only to see that same lead going down due to losses in the South and other swing states as well.

The Nixon campaign had a substantially improved performance this time, but it did not escape controversy. Broadly speaking, the GOP ticket had a moments of brilliance, epitomized on President Nixon's effective attacks on rivals in Pennsylvania and Michigan (which all but finished Schmitz in the second, and damaged Muskie in the first) and his eloquent "mark my words" moment with young voters. Yorty hit some good notes as well on his labor credentials, yet both the President and the Mayor have their own issues with messaging because the voters have found it hard to see them as a functioning team.

And hence comes the speech. Having led an unsuccessful press conference the previous week, Mayor Yorty delivered a speech before the public, defending himself and his record against the attacks from both enemy tickets. Famously quoting a voter named "Sue", Yorty made his case in a way that resembled Nixon's own "Checkers Speech" back in 1952, leading to no shortage of comments on the "Sue Speech" and how Yorty had become "Nixon's Nixon". While unsupported by the debate (as voters doubt Yorty truly had a mandate to a nomination) and despite Yorty's tirades against Nixon all too fresh in the minds of the voters, the speech had a positive effect on the public, halting the bleeding from the issue and giving Yorty a chance moving forward.

The Democrats, being forced to make a decision, choose to go with a vision of legacy regarding past administrations, claiming the mantle of Roosevelt and Kennedy while aggressively trying to get their base through issue like health care and the war while appealing to swing voters by relentlessly pounding on corruption. All in all, a solid effort of showcasing a united front with help from McGovern, Humphrey and Ted Kennedy and the surprise use of a John Lennon tune in advertising, what proved to be a more than clever idea. Alas, the Democratic ticket is paying a price on the issue of busing, taking even more damage across the South and in states like Michigan.

In normal circumstances, Schmitz would have probably faced an overall loss across the board due to marked issues on the debate performance. Yet his campaign has made it a point to appeal to the South as much as possible, and the combination of symbols, endorsements from Southern politicians and a strong stance on busing led Schmitz to have his breakout across some of the Wallace states (NOTE: Wallace has not endorsed yet, I've ignored his use by ClassicConservative in a post). Despite all but collapsing on states like Michgan, New Jersey, Washington, Oregon and so on, Schmitz also opened a new front of debate on the environment, noting Nixon and Muskie's records and hurting them across the West, making unexpected gains through states like the Dakotas and Montana. All in all, the Schmitz campaign is not in bad shape, but it needs to stop making mistakes like the military service lie at the debate, which costed the independent ticket support in key states.

The undecided vote has been take already by the three candidates on most states (save for some of the ignored states), which means most if not any swings this turn are likely to be from one candidate to another. Can you seize the moment?

You have exactly 72 hours, best of luck!

[Lumine]

Ooooh, who gets the endorsement for Wallace, do I have a say because I played Wallace or what?

Actually, you do!

If you wish to, you can have full power over the Wallace endorsement (as there are arguments for all three candidates, even if the choices would affect Wallace's later career). Just let me know beforehand.

Also, I spoke to MadmanMotley some time ago, and the process will be the same for Barry Goldwater Jr., his endorsement has to be requested from him.

[Lumine]

Gallup Polls:

Texas:

Richard Nixon/Sam Yorty: 47%
Ed Muskie/Birch Bayh: 40%
John Schmitz/John Rarick: 6%
Undecided: 7%

Illinois:

Richard Nixon/Sam Yorty: 51%
Ed Muskie/Birch Bayh: 47%
John Schmitz/John Rarick: 1%
Undecided: 2%

Michigan:

Richard Nixon/Sam Yorty: 50%
Ed Muskie/Birch Bayh: 45%
John Schmitz/John Rarick: 1%
Undecided: 4%

Indiana:

Richard Nixon/Sam Yorty: 51%
Ed Muskie/Birch Bayh: 43%
John Schmitz/John Rarick: 1%
Undecided: 5%

[Lumine]

Gallup Polls:

Montana:

Richard Nixon/Sam Yorty: 47%
Ed Muskie/Birch Bayh: 36%
John Schmitz/John Rarick: 12%
Undecided: 5%

Louisiana:

Richard Nixon/Sam Yorty: 37%
John Schmitz/John Rarick: 33%
Ed Muskie/Birch Bayh: 26%
Undecided: 4%

Mississippi:

Richard Nixon/Sam Yorty: 39%
John Schmitz/John Rarick: 35%
Ed Muskie/Birch Bayh: 20%
Undecided: 6%

Alabama:

Richard Nixon/Sam Yorty: 40%
John Schmitz/John Rarick: 37%
Ed Muskie/Birch Bayh: 19%
Undecided: 5%

[Lumine]

Would a one-day extension be okay? It gives us more breathing room to follow tonight's primary results, too.

Sure.

[Lumine]

I have no time to finish this now, Balance of Power deserves full priority today. This is extended to Friday night, I'll have enough time then.

[Lumine]

When is the turn going to end???

Either tonight or tomorrow night, depends on how long I take finishing up the BoP turn.

[Lumine]

Lumine do you plan on having a VP debate?

Yes, the rules say we have one scheduled for turn 5.

[Lumine]

Yes, eight hours from now.

[Lumine]

Turn Twenty: Fear and Loathing in Dixieland:

September 23rd to September 30th, 1972

In the News!

Wallace endorses Schmitz!

GOP and Dems in disarray in the South, Schmitz/Rarick continue their unexpected rise

Anti-Busing Amendment introduced in the House:

While it will take months for the measure to be debated and voted, the measure brings support from conservative Democrats and Republicans

WIC Program passed by the House:

With a 342-34 vote by the House of Representatives, the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants and Children is made law

Gallup: 1972 Presidential Election:

Richard Nixon/Sam Yorty: 46% (-3) (267 EV)
Ed Muskie/Birch Bayh: 41% (-2) (121 EV)
John Schmitz/John Rarick: 10% (+4) (38 EV)
Undecided: 3% (+1) (112 EV)

For political pundits, the past week of September was nothing short of a blessing. Coming out of the month with Muskie desperately trying to narrow the gap (and succeeding in stabilizing around Humphrey in 68' numbers) and Schmitz gaining and losing on account of his spirited campaign, all of the three major campaigns realized full well that the stakes were rising higher and higher, for a solid base for October and the final debates was crucial in order to succeed. And sure enough, all of the three stepped their game and brought forward the big guns (in all seriousness, I'm proud of all of you, this was the best turn to read and grade of the GE)

Entering the fray more organized and enthusiastic than ever was Congressman Schmitz, a man whose appeal has proven unexpectedly lasting (for a man disowned by his own party a few months ago). Despite media criticism of the Schmitz campaign apparently exaggerating the number of their crowds (because let's face it, CC, you give numbers that seem way out of line at times) and his penchant for making charges of communism (such as a much derided radio ad on Yorty's record), his campaign is not only more efficient in terms of sending out endorsers and mobilizing conservative and law and order voters, but has decided to fully exploit the issue of busing. Indeed, despite earlier legislative initiatives by Schmitz being a failure, the proposed amendment on busing has enjoyed immediate support from anti-busing politicians like Rep. Louise Day Hicks (D-MA), even if they personally support their respective nominee. While polling on the issue is not altogether clear, the issue has proven sensitive and a political winner despite the Schmitz's ticket almost leaning towards segregationism (an issue still not clear).

Often attacked by a lack of coordination, the GOP went to war once again with a much improved performance (even brave in a sense). Sensing busing to be an issue that could cost votes, both Nixon and Yorty took the stage to address the issue, Nixon from the moderate point of view in the Northern states, and Yorty through the bold step of moving through the South. While Nixon's performance was considered decent (partly because voters don't see him as against busing as he claims to be), it was Yorty who won the most praise from the GOP and the voters themselves, as it was perceived that the Mayor had finally found his voice and the charisma that had propelled him to the center of the Democratic Primary. Countering on busing and relentlessly attacking Muskie's character (with TV ads being particularly effective, especially the appearance of beloved Mamie Eisenhower), it seemed Nixon was about to widen the gap.

Ever the challengers, Muskie and Bayh went out to the swing states in hope, with mixed results. Much like the GOP, it was widely considered that Senator Bayh had been considerably more effective than Senator Muskie, with the VP candidate hitting the right notes on employment, law and order and social policies. Muskie scored some hits of his own ("Yorty was always with Nixon", "Where is Nixon's plan?") by entering the fray against a Nixon seen less trustworthy than before, yet not fully countering the attacks on his character made by the GOP. And whereas ad advertising and surrogates proved effective in the Democratic ticket's performance, a faux pas was committed when a good deal of resources were spent in Texas for the end of the Vietnam War, ultimately backfiring as the state remains hawkish (although evidently not as much as the South).

And yet, the old adage that events in politics are unpredictable played its hand once again. Whereas the narrative of the week had seemed more or less clear before, the game changed its setting once again with a game changer from Alabama: the return of popular Governor George Wallace, who after running a campaign of his own and endorsing Yorty (a crucial factor for the Mayor's delegate wall) gave a powerful speech to endorse the Schmitz/Rarick ticket, allowing them to truly claim the mantle of being the heir to the Wallace 68' efforts. With undecided voters reduced to the minimum and the Democrats already heavily decimated in the South (and taking further losses still), it fell to the Republicans to take most of the punishment as Wallace and busing dominated the media cycle, negating Yorty's masterful performance in the South and turning into the equivalent of a political earthquake across the region, entire states changing sides (most notably Wallace's Alabama).

As September reaches its end, will 1972 prove to be a similar repeat of the 1968 drama?

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Lumine]

Also, I think a reward is in order for all of you, seeing the level of effort so far (and how amusing this election cycle has been for me personally). Here's a map that shows the rough state of the race by September 23rd, with the caveat that this still has the 3% difference turned on (meaning any of you could have between -3 to +3 of the rough percentages show here). I hope you'll enjoy it!

NOTE: Percentages do not consider "safe" or "lean", they are meant to show at which bracket (30%, 40%, 50%, etc) the candidate is technically ahead in that particular state.

[Lumine]

Certainly:

Gallup Polls:

Arkansas:

Richard Nixon/Sam Yorty: 36%
John Schmitz/John Rarick: 35%
Ed Muskie/Birch Bayh: 25%
Undecided: 4%

Tennessee:

Richard Nixon/Sam Yorty: 41%
John Schmitz/John Rarick: 31%
Ed Muskie/Birch Bayh: 23%
Undecided: 4%

South Carolina:

Richard Nixon/Sam Yorty: 39%
John Schmitz/John Rarick: 33%
Ed Muskie/Birch Bayh: 23%
Undecided: 4%

Nevada:

Richard Nixon/Sam Yorty: 48%
Ed Muskie/Birch Bayh: 39%
John Schmitz/John Rarick: 9%
Undecided: 4%

[Lumine]

By schedule, tomorrow night.

[Lumine]

Saturday it is. It also gives me time to properly research a player request.

[Lumine]

Meany: I refuse to endorse in 72'

Powerful AFL-CIO President George Meany spoke to the press today in New York City regarding the 1972 Presidential Election, a contest that has seen significant shifts in the past few weeks. Meany, whom some expected could make a last minute endorsement to sway union voters to one of the candidates bluntly declared he was not offering his support to any of the contenders, expressing his discontent with Henry Kissinger and the Nixon Administration's current negotiation process with North Vietnam, as well as the anti-war stance taken up by the Democratic Party for the election year.

Standing up by his endorsement of Mayor Sam Yorty in the later stages of the Democratic Primary Mr. Meany defended his character, his stances on the unions and anti-communism and denounced the tirade of attacks against the Mayor, being particularly vicious against Congressman John G. Schmitz's ads linking Yorty to the Communist Party in the 1930's. Mr. Meany also spoke positively of Senator Ed Muskie - whom he almost endorsed back in the primary - on his pro-labor record, while expressing his misgivings by the increasingly loud calls from inside the Democratic Party to end the war.

Ultimately, the AFL-CIO President 's refusal to endorse a candidate is likely to prevent what could have been a coup across the industrial Midwest to any candidate he might have endorsed, but it comes off as some welcomed support for Senator Muskie and Mayor Yorty's records. Polling shows union voters as seriously considering both the Democratic and Republican tickets, with the independent effort of John Schmitz far behind despite George Wallace's attempts at highlighting Schmitz's stance on the unions.

[Lumine]

Considering there's less than three hours left I can grant another extension (also to my benefit, it's been a very exhausting week for me), but I'd prefer it if it was requested by a player.

[Lumine]

Good man. Monday it is!

[Lumine]

Gallup Polls:

Illinois

Richard Nixon/Sam Yorty: 49%
Ed Muskie/Birch Bayh: 48%
John Schmitz/John Rarick: 2%
Undecided: 2%

Texas

Richard Nixon/Sam Yorty: 46%
Ed Muskie/Birch Bayh: 39%
John Schmitz/John Rarick: 10%
Undecided: 6%

Michigan

Richard Nixon/Sam Yorty: 47%
Ed Muskie/Birch Bayh: 46%
John Schmitz/John Rarick: 4%
Undecided: 3%

Pennsylvania

Richard Nixon/Sam Yorty: 49%
Ed Muskie/Birch Bayh: 44%
John Schmitz/John Rarick: 4%
Undecided: 3%

[Lumine]

This still ends tonight, in about three hours.

[Lumine]

This was over about an hour ago, actually. Still, I'll consider that, results up tomorrow since I'm dying to get some sleep.

[Lumine]

Working on it, but it's been a tiresome week so far.

It takes a solid three hours of work to make a turn since I have to do polling for all states, grade performances, research the news to find something interesting, consider the national swing and do the dice rolls, and finding the time is not particularly easy these days.

Alternatively, Nixon's schedule reminded me I never gave results for the Scranton confirmation hearing, so expect an event on that as the new turn is posted. Schmitz, Muskie and Bayh are invited to make their "Aye", "Nay" or "Abstain" vote known, but the outcome of the vote has already been decided.

[Lumine]

Working on it, but it's been a tiresome week so far.

It takes a solid three hours of work to make a turn since I have to do polling for all states, grade performances, research the news to find something interesting, consider the national swing and do the dice rolls, and finding the time is not particularly easy these days.

Alternatively, Nixon's schedule reminded me I never gave results for the Scranton confirmation hearing, so expect an event on that as the new turn is posted. Schmitz, Muskie and Bayh are invited to make their "Aye", "Nay" or "Abstain" vote known, but the outcome of the vote has already been decided.

Is that William Scranton of Pennsylvania? What's he being appointed to?

Vice-President, of course. Nixon appointed him to replace Agnew, and he will serve as a placeholder from October 1972 to January 1973 (if confirmed, of course).