Fear and Loathing in 72’ – The Election Game (GM Vacancy)

[Lumine]

Right, I've been asked about yet another extension, and I granted an extra day, if only because from my own experience in university I can tell time is not always that much of a luxury.

That said, the schedule will get faster after this, because I don't want the game to stall and there's little need to drag the primaries further (not to mention my schedule becomes a lot busier next week on), so I'll stick to a calendar to end the process until the convention.

October 10th: Turn results, beginning of turn 13.
October 10th - October 13th (Afternoon): Turn 13 and Results (May 24th to June 6th)
October 14th - October 16th (Night): Turn 14 and Results (June 7th to June 20th)
October 16/17th: Beginning of the Democratic Convention, gameplay details to be announced at the end of turn 14.

[Lumine]

Extra Note:

I might as well reveal it now, since Maxwell's post spoils it anyway. One of the dynamics of the Democratic National Convention is the potential for late-entry candidates, with the following caveats: First, these candidates have to be approved by me (to enforce plausibility), second, they can only enter after the first ballot is over, and third, they face a disadvantage against primary candidates in the sense that the delegates of the last ones are less likely to desert them.

I will also make this clearer with a later event, but for the record: Ted Kennedy will not be available as a Presidential late entry, nor will he be allowed to be a Vice-Presidential pick. He clearly did not want to run in any circumstances in 72', and it's too easy to have him jump in considering the Kennedy nostalgia. 

[Lumine]

How about the RNC?

(P.S. Nixon files for all upcoming primaries, etc. even though I'm pretty sure I said that already.)

Thanks!

It will be simulated as well, coming after the DNC.

[Lumine]

And the INC.

Yes, that too, but it merely involves speeches and VP pick, as I can't simulate gameplay for that kind of non-OTL event.

[Lumine]

Right, that's enough, 72' debates were not as nearly as exciting (and long).

I'll start working on full results now.

[Lumine]

Results being written, so please refrain from continuing the debate. (Interesting as it is, I do have to read and rate all those large texts)

[Lumine]

Meany endorses Sam Yorty:

Following months of silence (interpreted by many as a delay in the hopes that Former Vice-President Hubert Humphrey would enter the Presidential race), the key union boss George Meany, an extremely powerful figure in the Democratic Party has endorsed Los Angeles Mayor Sam Yorty (D-CA) for President, giving the Mayor a decisive boost in the final stages of Primary Season. While Mr. Meany emphasized the pro-union stances of other Democratic candidates like Senator Fred Harris (D-OK), he stressed that it was Yorty who fit the profile of the best candidate for the unions, stating his full support for the Mayor's strong anti-communist and anti-radical stances as well as his known stances on the Vietnam War. Meany also offered harsh criticism of the candidates more in the left of the party like Senator George McGovern (D-SD) and Congressman Morris Udall (D-AZ), denouncing a turn to the left from the party as "electoral suicide". It is believed this endorsement might prove very important in the largest states still left to vote.

[Lumine]

For the love of god, stop posting on the debate...

I'm trying to get the debate analysis right, so I'm not acknowledging these responses.

[Lumine]

Candidates go straight for the kill at debate:

Marking an interesting difference with an early debate before the New Hampshire Primary (with low viewership), the second democratic debate held before a series of key primaries was considered rather successful on account of the large viewership who tuned in to see the six remaining primary candidates battle it out. While polling on winners and losers was not conducted due to the expense, media and audience reports on the debate seem to agree on some basic results, the consensus being that far from securing a key victory for a single candidate the debate seem to hurt the Democratic field on account of the ferocity of the attacks, making earlier responses on party harmony and unity seem ironic.

In terms of those who lost the debate, it was broadly agreed that Congressman Udall did the worst. Despite being known for his wit and swift responses, Udall gave stark responses save for defending his minimum wage plan (still under fire at the debate and nationwide), stating his performance to be motivated by his desire to tell the truth, move which played badly. Next comes Governor Wallace, who despite delivering a blow which raised more than a few laughs ("Mr. abortion and pot legislator McGovern") was perceived to be taking very unpopular stances on nationalization and the draft (which he implied to support), along with what seemed like an abrupt change of position on Vietnam.

The middle ground was shared first by Senator George McGovern, who many pundits described as being a bit "forgettable" when it came to most of the debate time (failing to properly counter "acid, abortion and amnesty"). That said, McGovern seemed to excel at the Vietnam questioning, and his strong line to Mayor Yorty "END THE WAR" drew applause and excitement from many anti-war voters who feel unrepresented. Normally it would have been agreed that Senator Harris and Mayor Yorty could have claimed victory by themselves on their relatively strong performances, but most of the debate airtime was focused on both candidates destroying each other on national television, which significantly hurt both men. Harris was considered strong on his healthcare and economic questions, but the sustained barrage of attacks on busing and a position which remains confusing to the average American took their toll, private polling suggesting Harris's numbers to be evaporating in Michigan after the debate. Yorty, on the other hand, struck a cord on fiscal responsibility and his much lauded appeals to the fear and anger felt by many voters, but he was badly damaged over Vietnam as his position couldn't be more unpopular among wide sectors of the field, something Harris, McGovern and Muskie took full advantage of.

In the end, and to the surprise of pundits and the general public, it was Senator Muskie who was considered the debate winner by surpassing Yorty, McGovern and Harris's weaknesses. His campaign damaged over recent losses, Senator Muskie was perceived to have successfully aimed for the unclaimed center of the field, striking a very reasonable tone on defence. Liberals were also positively surprised on his strong pitch on healthcare and his perceived victory against Yorty on Vietnam (as the "Genghis Khan" comment was taken by virtually all as a joke, reflecting badly on Yorty's "overreaction), which allowed Muskie to finish strong by stating that he was learning from his mistakes.

All in all, it's an event that shows the strength and weaknesses of the various candidates in the field, which may have different results across the nation. All in all, pundits guess the largest effects will be felt on the Michigan Primary (where Yorty is expected to rise and Harris to suffer) and across the Pacific and Northeastern states, where Muskie might be able to stage a late comeback).

[Lumine]

May 9th:

Democratic Nebraska Primary:

George McGovern: 47.22% (12)
Fred Harris: 18.56% (5)
Sam Yorty: 18.13% (5)
Ed Muskie: 13.90%
George Wallace: 2.19%

Democratic West Virginia Primary:

Fred Harris: 27.83% (12)
George Wallace: 26.79% (12)
Sam Yorty: 24.75% (11)
George McGovern: 12.65%
Ed Muskie: 7.98%

Democratic Connecticut Caucus:

Ed Muskie: 30.76% (20)
George McGovern: 30.02% (19)
Morris Udall: 19.01% (10)
Fred Harris: 13.32%
Sam Yorty: 5.06%
George Wallace: 1.83%

[Lumine]

May 16th:

Democratic Michigan Primary:

Sam Yorty: 31.02% (49)
George McGovern: 22.22% (36)
George Wallace: 20.19% (32)
Ed Muskie: 15.13% (25)
Fred Harris: 6.12%
Morris Udall: 5.32%

Democratic Maryland Primary:

George Wallace: 25.32% (18)
Sam Yorty: 24.42% (18)
George McGovern: 23.11% (17)
Ed Muskie: 11.45%
Fred Harris: 9.13%
Morris Udall: 6.57%

Democratic Washington Caucus:

George McGovern: 36.29% (20)
Ed Muskie: 18.71% (11)
Morris Udall: 18.29% (10)
Sam Yorty: 17.52% (10)
Fred Harris: 7.58%
George Wallace: 1.61%

[Lumine]

May 23rd:

Democratic Rhode Island Primary:

22

George McGovern: 30.13% (8 )
Ed Muskie: 24.44% (6)
Fred Harris: 17.19% (5)
Morris Udall: 15.23% (3)
George Wallace: 13.01%

Democratic Oregon Primary:

George McGovern: 39.39% (16)
Sam Yorty: 23.48% (9)
Morris Udall: 17.72% (5)
Ed Muskie: 16.54% (4)
Fred Harris: 7.66%
George Wallace: 5.21%

[Lumine]

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Note: Nixon won all but 13 delegates for Goldwater and a minor slate of 21 unpledged delegates in Michigan.

RICHARD NIXON WINS GOP NOMINATION!

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[Lumine]

Will there be another debate before the Convention Debate?

Also, do you have a list of days for the primaries & caucuses? I only found Rhode Island's and assumed Connecticut's was on the same day.

Not really, there's only two turns left and this one took a lot of time for me to grade. If the players find a third party to host a debate I might consider it, but personally I'm not hosting another debate.

There is a list at the Sign Up and Rules thead, here are the remaining primaries:

Turn 13:

May 30 – Arkansas, Kentucky and Nevada Caucuses
June 6 – California Primary, South Dakota Primary, New Jersey, New Mexico and Colorado Caucuses

Turn 14

June 14 – Texas, Delaware, Maine and Oklahoma Caucuses
June 20 - New York Primary

[Lumine]

Turn Thirteen: Traditional Politics with a Vengeance:

May 24th to June 6th, 1972

In the News!

SALT Treaty signed in Moscow

Breznhev and Nixon agree on Strategic Arms Limitation Talks, prohibiting additional offensive nuclear missiles to be built

Lon Nol wins elections in Cambodia!

Elections in the Khmer Republic leave Lon Nol as President, In Tam defeated as protesters charge fraud from the military

1.- Primaries: Here we are, gentlemen. We have a series of caucuses to contest in New Jersey, New Mexico, Colorado, Kentucky, Nevada and Arkansas, a minor primary in South Dakota, and the grand prize... California. As explained earlier and following the OTL 72' Primary Race, California is the only Winner Takes All contest of the game, which means whoever gets to survive the fusilade that primary is going to mean (because it will take effort to win it, and it will be prone to wild polling swings) goes home with 306 delegates to the convention. All in all, 581 delegates up for grabs.

Democrats:

May 30 – Arkansas (35), Kentucky (47) and Nevada (11) Caucuses
June 6 – California Primary (306), South Dakota Primary (17), New Jersey (112), New Mexico (18) and Colorado (37) Caucuses

Primary Polling

Gallup: Democratic Primary:

George McGovern: 29% (+1)
Sam Yorty: 22% (+1)
Fred Harris: 17% (-3)
Ed Muskie: 15% (+3)
George Wallace: 10% (-3)
Morris Udall: 5%
Undecided: 3% (+1)

More momentum swings, as the debate and the primary fusilade leave some important changes to be noted. Congressman Udall continues to pick up delegates, but his debate performance and money issues have left his campaign somewhat stalled, in need for a clear win. Wallace takes a major hit on account of his debate performance, the fact that he continues to blow money despite being almost broke and some unpopular stances, but it should be noted that his approach in personal campaigning off-sets this national weakness and should be considered an asset. Harris is very good with GOTV and has a good base of African American support too, but again, the busing debate really hurts him among working class voters and candidates continue to pile on him.

Which leaves us to the three rising candidates: McGovern, Yorty and Muskie. Normally the first two would have gained a more concrete surge on account of their victories, but Yorty can only grow so much in a party that mostly despises him over his Vietnam stance and after suffering damage at the debate, whereas McGovern is not properly addressing mounting concerns over the so called "Acid, Abortion and Amnesty" issue. That leaves Muskie to recover much lost support over a good debate performance and because is the one of less damaged candidates, reviving his campaign for the time being.

[Lumine]

Primary Candidate Data

Notoriety = N, Organization = O, Finance = F

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[Lumine]

Early States, Tentative Polling:

Gallup: Arkansas Caucus:

George Wallace: 34%
Sam Yorty: 19%
Fred Harris: 18%
Ed Muskie: 11%
George McGovern: 8%
Morris Udall: 4%
Undecided: 6%

Gallup: Kentucky Caucus:

Fred Harris: 27%
George Wallace: 21%
Sam Yorty: 20%
Ed Muskie: 15%
George McGovern: 9%
Morris Udall: 3%
Undecided: 5%

Gallup: Nevada Caucus:

George McGovern: 29%
Sam Yorty: 20%
Ed Muskie: 18%
Morris Udall: 17%
Fred Harris: 9%
George Wallace: 3%
Undecided: 4%

Gallup: New Jersey Caucus:

Fred Harris: 25%
George McGovern: 22%
Ed Muskie: 19%
George Wallace: 12%
Sam Yorty: 9%
Morris Udall: 8%
Undecided: 5%

Gallup: New Mexico Caucus:

George McGovern: 32%
Morris Udall: 20%
Ed Muskie: 18%
Sam Yorty: 15%
Fred Harris: 8%
George Wallace: 2%
Undecided: 5%

Gallup: Colorado Caucus:

George McGovern: 28%
Ed Muskie: 24%
Morris Udall: 19%
Sam Yorty: 13%
Fred Harris: 8%
George Wallace: 3%
Undecided: 5%

Gallup: South Dakota Primary:

George McGovern: 71%
Ed Muskie: 13%
Fred Harris: 5%
George Wallace: 1%
Morris Udall: 3%
Undecided: 7%

Gallup: California Primary:

George McGovern: 31%
Sam Yorty: 31%
Fred Harris: 16%
Ed Muskie: 12%
Morris Udall: 6%
George Wallace: 1%
Undecided: 3%

ABC News: California Primary:

George McGovern: 35%
Sam Yorty: 33%
Fred Harris: 13%
Morris Udall: 7%
Ed Muskie: 5%
George Wallace: 1%
Undecided: 6%

NBC News: California Primary:

Sam Yorty: 34%
George McGovern: 30%
Fred Harris: 11%
Ed Muskie: 9%
Morris Udall: 8%
George Wallace: 3%
Undecided: 5%

[Lumine]

Any news on the two candidates peering outward into the primary looking at the possibility of a brokered convention?

Not this turn. There will be news on that after Turn Fourteen is over and before the Convention starts, but for this turn and the next one focus is on the primary candidates.

General election map?

It would be cool if you could possibly make two, one with Nixon vs. a conservative (Wallace, Yorty, etc.) and the other with Nixon vs. a liberal (McGovern, Muskie, etc.)

Thanks!

Sorry, I simply do not have the time for a GE map given my focus on the primary.

Gentlemen, you have until Thursday (non-negotiable), have fun!

[Lumine]

General Election Numbers:

(No maps, because I'm not spending four hours or so on a minor detail)

Gallup: General Election:

Richard Nixon: 47%
Edmund Muskie: 44%
John G. Schmitz: 5%
Undecided: 4%

Richard Nixon: 49%
Sam Yorty: 38%
John G. Schmitz: 2%
Undecided: 12%

Richard Nixon: 50%
George McGovern: 38%
John G. Schmitz: 7%
Undecided: 5%

Richard Nixon: 50%
Mo Udall: 37%
John G. Schmitz: 8%
Undecided: 5%

Richard Nixon: 47%
Fred Harris: 42%
John G. Schmitz: 7%
Undecided: 4%

Richard Nixon: 48%
George Wallace: 41%
John G. Schmitz: 1%
Undecided: 10%

[Lumine]

Oh, it still ends tomorrow, it's kind of hypocritical of me to say there are not going to be delays and then wait one, two, three more days.

[Lumine]

What time is this turn ending tonight?

Six-seven hours from now on.

[Lumine]

How much time left?

An hour.

[Lumine]

How much time left?

An hour.

Lumine, can I please get a little more time. I really want to get this out, but I am still working.

Sorry, it's a lot more late here than it is there, and I do have to go to university tomorrow. Given the time it takes to calculate results the remaining time could be an hour at best, but that's it.

[Lumine]

Writing results as we speak.

[Lumine]

May 30th:

Democratic Arkansas Caucus:

Fred Harris: 27.11% (13)
George Wallace: 26.45% (11)
Sam Yorty: 24.82% (11)
Ed Muskie: 12.29%
George McGovern: 6.41%
Morris Udall: 2.93%

Democratic Kentucky Caucus:

Fred Harris: 30.55% (14)
Sam Yorty: 27.46% (13)
George Wallace: 18.37% (10)
Ed Muskie: 17.19% (10)
George McGovern: 5.07%
Morris Udall: 1.36%

Democratic Nevada Caucus:

Ed Muskie: 25.24% (3)
Morris Udall: 25.07% (3)
George McGovern: 24.31% (3)
Sam Yorty: 20.08% (2)
Fred Harris: 3.66%
George Wallace: 0.92%