Fear and Loathing in 72’ – The Election Game (GM Vacancy)

[Lumine]

For the record, Wallace can't run as a Republican, it has to be Democratic or American Independent Party.

[Lumine]

I'll go into the democratic primaries, and if I dont win, I'll enter the GE, is that possible.

Welcome to the game, Intell!

I'll need an announcement speech from you, and then you can being posting a schedule. You have entered right in time to file in for a series of primaries in May, so I encourage you not to forget entering those. Caucuses are also open to you, but remember that you won't be able to participate in the Massachusetts and Pennsylvania Primaries next turn due to your late entrance.

Do let me know if there are any doubts, and best of luck!

[Lumine]

About three hours left, but I suspect I'll have to grant an extension the way things are going.

[Lumine]

Hmmmm... Tuesday afternoon it is (not night, so I'm not waiting until the last moment).

[Lumine]

About six hours left here.

Also, this is the final turn to grant this much of an extension, the game is slowing down too much.

[Lumine]

About an hour left here.

[Lumine]

Congratulations on the 1000th Post, Never Again!

Results to come shortly, I will be using a simple update instead of a "televised" approach as these are caucuses.

[Lumine]

Caucus Results:

Republican Kansas Caucus:

Richard Nixon: 68.43% (23)
Barry Goldwater Jr: 31.57% (9)

Republican Virginia Caucus:

Richard Nixon: 63.24% (40)
Barry Goldwater Jr: 36.76% (18)

Republican Alaska Caucus:

Richard Nixon: 74.87% (15)
Barry Goldwater Jr: 26.13% (4)

Republican Hawaii Caucus:

Richard Nixon: 83.36% (11)
Barry Goldwater Jr: 16.64% (3)

Republican Idaho Caucus:

Richard Nixon: 62.86% (14)
Barry Goldwater Jr: 37.14% (7)

Republican Montana Caucus:

Richard Nixon: 64.11% (14)
Barry Goldwater Jr: 35.89% (6)

Republican Wyoming Caucus:

Richard Nixon: 67.23% (12)
Barry Goldwater Jr: 32.77% (7)

Republican Utah Caucus:

Richard Nixon: 62.49% (15)
Barry Goldwater Jr: 37.51% (6)

__________________________________________________________________________________

Democratic Kansas Caucus:

Fred Harris: 36.15% (10)
Sam Yorty: 23.65% (8 )
George McGovern: 16.59% (7)
Ed Muskie: 13.06
George Wallace: 10.55%

Democratic Virginia Caucus:

Sam Yorty: 27.21% (19)
Fred Harris: 25.68% (18)
George Wallace: 20.63% (11)
Ed Muskie: 17.09% (10)
George McGovern: 9.39%

Democratic Alaska Caucus:

George McGovern: 44.52% (4)
Ed Muskie: 26.97% (3)
Sam Yorty: 16.24% (2)
Fred Harris: 9.05%
George Wallace: 3.22%

Democratic Hawaii Caucus:

George McGovern: 52.61% (9)
Ed Muskie: 17.12% (3)
Fred Harris: 15.41% (2)
Sam Yorty: 13.09% (2)
George Wallace: 1.77%

Democratic Idaho Caucus:

George McGovern: 27.11% (5)
Sam Yorty: 25.34% (4)
Ed Muskie: 17.67% (3)
Uncommitted: 16.11% (1)
Fred Harris: 9.26%
George Wallace: 4.51%

Democratic Montana Caucus:

George McGovern: 32.21% (4)
Sam Yorty: 27.99% (3)
Ed Muskie: 20.57% (2)
Fred Harris: 15.35% (2)
George Wallace: 3.88%

Democratic Wyoming Caucus:

Sam Yorty: 35.23% (5)
Ed Muskie: 26.25% (4)
George McGovern: 23.31% (3)
Fred Harris: 13.04% (2)
George Wallace: 2.17%

Democratic Utah Caucus:

Sam Yorty: 46.09% (8 )
George McGovern: 20.56% (4)
Ed Muskie: 18.78% (3)
Fred Harris: 11.06%
George Wallace: 3.51%

You must be logged in to read this quote.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Lumine]

That took way too much time... Right, tomorrow you will have some analysis of the results and the explanation for some that might seem a bit surprising, and then the next turn begins.

[Lumine]

Could I enter this race on the Republican or Democratic side?

I'd like to perhaps enter as Amb. John Eisenhower or as Morris Udall.

You can, certainly, next turn is the last one for players to enter the primary season (another dynamic will come up for candidates at the conventions, though). I recommend the Democratic Primary considering that Nixon has a pretty solid lead in delegates hard to overcome, and Udall is indeed open.

As of now you have missed the deadline to compete in primaries up to May 9th, but you can fully compete in caucuses until that date (Vermont, Washington DC, Alabama, Georgia, North Dakota, Mississippi, Louisiana and Connecticut), and wage write-in efforts in primaries (which admittedly is not nearly the same as being on the ballot). From there on, the upcoming turns will allow to file in for the other primaries.

If you choose Udall indeed I'd advise you to make a formal announcement before I post the new turn in three to four hours, so I can include you in polling right away.

Next turn and results analysis to come later today.

[Lumine]

Goldwater Jr is suspending his campaign and withholding his endorsement until a later time, he asks his supporters to vote for him in any future primaries or caucuses. He will now run for reelection to his House seat, and will also consider running in 1974 for senate.

OOC: it's been a great run and I'd like to contribute more but school has been rough this semester so I can't put in the time.

Sad to see you go, MadmanMotley! (at least for now(

[Lumine]

Some Minor Analysis:

That this primary season has been unexpected would be an understatement. It has been a rather open ended contest that, unlike 1968, has actually offered most of the candidates their own shot at winning, and indeed at a stage in which 25% of the delegates have already been selected there were no favorites in delegates like HHH was four years ago. Many have fallen on the road to be replaced by others, as Shirley Chisholm suspended her campaign before New Hampshire; Jimmy Carter withdrew after said primary, Eugene McCarthy endorsed Senator McGovern, Mike Gravel has suspended, and Mayor Lindsay faced a most untimely end a few days ago. His death, and the unexpected re-entry of George Wallace (and amidst rumors of other candidates considering a run as well) put the race into chaos, leaving no less than eight caucuses to scramble for the great chuck of votes left to find.

The clear winner this time was George McGovern, winning four caucuses and coalescing the vote of the left-wing of the Democratic Party (especially it’s anti-war vote) to form a most powerful coalition. In other circumstances McGovern might have not performed as strongly, but the McCarthy endorsement, his low-key approach with popular policy stances and the fact that most of his opponents are moderates or conservatives gave him the edge (because let’s face it, there was a lot of appetite for what McGovern stood for in the 72 Primaries). Second on the list we have Mayor Yorty, threatened by the surge of Harris and Wallace, and who aptly used stellar caucus organization to win three other contests, taking full advantage of his western appeal. That on the bright side, because despite showing he’s here to stay the South is unlikely to give him victories if they have Wallace (whom they trust) as the alternative. Limping behind we have Fred Harris, who suffered from losing voters to Wallace and having states not suited to his candidacy despite great organization, and Ed Muskie, who despite his noted improvements on the campaign trail failed to win a state through enough focus. Both will need victories to keep momentum. Wallace offers an interesting case in the sense that his re-entry and the Yorty strength will keep him weak in the North, but being clever enough to drum on busing and campaign in the South he has an excellent source of delegates there for a sizable bloc of his own.

The Republican Primary is of course much clearer, as Nixon hit it out of the park with an impressive amount of effort in his posts (even more impressive than Yorty and Harris, and that’s staying something) turning a calendar of what should have been hostile states into a triumph as the Goldwater Jr. campaign collapsed on account of Morgens’s intervention and a lack of presence. A candidate may jump in here or in the convention, but Nixon has a decisive edge that makes him almost the inevitable nominee (opening another question, is Ted Agnew going to be the VP nominee for 72?).

[Lumine]

Turn Eleven: The One where the GM went mad:

April 18th to May 6th, 1972

In the News!

War in Vietnam in trouble

ARVN takes Quang Tri, American warships attacked by North Vietnamese MiG jets, wounding four

J. Edgar Hoover dead!

FBI Director dead after controversial 48 term at the head of organization, Washington DC mourns

Paris Peace Talks suspended indefinetly!

Lê Đức Thọ refuses to budge and walks out, Kissinger humilliated. Will Nixon bomb North Vietnam as he has hinted he will do?

1.- Primares: Yes, I went insane. Originally I wanted you to play a short turn with just MA, PA and VT, but that would have been dull and this game requires momentum rather than twenty useless turns. As a result, this is going to be pure insanity! SIX PRIMARIES, SEVEN CAUCUSES! Mind you, all of them with different dates:

Democrats:

April 25 – Massachusetts (112) and Pennsylvania (147) Primaries, Vermont (10) Caucus
May 2 – Washington DC Caucus (15), Indiana (82) and Ohio (150) Primaries
May 4 - Tennessee Primary (49), Alabama (41) and Georgia (52) Caucuses
May 6 – North Carolina Primary (74), North Dakota (14), Mississippi (32) and Louisiana (34) Caucuses

Republicans:

April 25 – Massachusetts (42) and Pennsylvania (83) Primaries, Vermont Caucus (19)
May 2 – Washington DC Caucus (14), Indiana (54) and Ohio (77) Primaries
May 4 - Tennessee Primary (49), Alabama (27) and Georgia (36) Caucuses
May 6 – North Carolina Primary (64), North Dakota (17), Mississippi (22) and Louisiana (31) Caucuses

2.- Primary Deadline: This week includes deadlines on most of the remaining primaries, save New York. Remember to file in if you want to contest Michigan, Maryland, Oregon, Rhode Island, California and South Dakota. Also, owing to current dynamics and late entrances, George Wallace can only wage write-in campaigns in Massachusetts and Pennsylvania. Likewise, Morris Udall can only field write-in campaigns in Indiana, Ohio, Tennessee and North Carolina.

3.- Special Dynamics!: I'm going all in in this turn, so endorsers for Democratic Primary candidates are increased to six for this turn. Also, the endorsement of Former President Lyndon Johnson is now open. PM me and tell me why you believe your candidate deserves LBJ's coveted endorsement. We will also have a debate!

Primary Polling

Gallup: Republican Primary:

Richard Nixon: 87% (+17)
Barry Goldwater Jr: 11% (-15)
Undecided: 2% (-3)

The GOP race is pretty much over with Goldwater suspending his campaign, all but securing Nixon his victory. While Goldwater Jr has called voters to still write-in his name, only a miracle can stop Richard Nixon now. As a result, I leave it up to darthebearnc if he wishes to strongly contest the upcoming states as there's no challenger. I will not include GOP Primary polling unless he asks for it, because making 13 polls on a race with a single candidate is a bit pointless...

Gallup: Democratic Primary:

George McGovern: 26% (+6)
Sam Yorty: 19% (-3)
Fred Harris: 17% (-2)
Ed Muskie: 17 (-5)
George Wallace: 10%
Morris Udall: 6%
Undecided: 5% (-1)

I don't want people to get the impression I'm punishing players, because Harris and Yorty have been very good lately with their schedules. Why these numbers then? Well, McGovern surges so much because of three reasons: First, he won the McCarthy endorsement, second, he won four caucuses, and third, because until Udall entered he was the sole truly left candidate, whereas Harris, Wallace and Yorty fight for similar voters who weren't as many as these numbers show. So in that sense I try to keep balance between gameplay and realism to the best of my ability, trying not to be unfair (if this was OTL, for example, Wallace entering could have destroyed the Yorty coalition).

In terms of political analysis, the field has been shaken yet again with McGovern stealing the spotlight as the unlikely frontrunner. This means his campaign wins strength and fundraising, but it also opens him out to attacks and greater expectations, so to keep that place he'll have to do well during this crucial week. Harris and Yorty are weakened by the new entries, but they continue to pick up some victories and there's plenty of strength left in them to get to the top if circumstances are right. Muskie improved his schedules a lot and he is strong in delegates, but he hasn't won a state until Iowa, and failure to do so means he goes down in the polls. Wallace is essentially weak in the north and west since those voters stick to Yorty, but he has a real shot at the South states this turn to make a name for himself. Last we have Morris Udall both as a populist and a liberal, meaning he is drawing from McGovern and Muskie, and Harris in a lesser way. He is low in the polls as newcomer, but good performances and a wise use of his resources despite limited ballot access also give him a certain fighting chance.

[Lumine]

Primary Candidate Data

Notoriety = N, Organization = O, Finance = F

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Lumine]

Early States, Tentative Polling:

Gallup: Democratic Massachusetts Primary:

George McGovern: 46%
Ed Muskie: 23%
Fred Harris: 16%
Sam Yorty: 9%
Undecided: 6%

Gallup: Democratic Pennsylvania Primary:

Fred Harris: 27%
Ed Muskie: 22%
George McGovern: 21%
Sam Yorty: 20%
Undecided: 10%

Gallup: Democratic Vermont Caucus:

Ed Muskie: 28%
George McGovern: 26%
Morris Udall: 16%
Fred Harris: 12%
Sam Yorty: 6%
George Wallace: 3%
Undecided: 9%

Gallup: Democratic Washington DC Caucus:

Uncommitted: 25%
Morris Udall: 21%
George McGovern: 16%
Ed Muskie: 14%
Fred Harris: 14%
Sam Yorty: 2%
George Wallace: 1%
Undecided: 7%

Gallup: Democratic Ohio Primary:

George McGovern: 27%
Ed Muskie: 22%
Fred Harris: 18%
Sam Yorty: 15%
George Wallace: 8%
Undecided: 10%

Gallup: Democratic Indiana Primary:

Fred Harris: 26%
George McGovern: 20%
Ed Muskie: 18%
Sam Yorty: 16%
George Wallace: 10%
Undecided: 10%

Gallup: Democratic Tennessee Primary:

George Wallace: 40%
Sam Yorty: 25%
Fred Harris: 15%
Ed Muskie: 7%
George McGovern: 6%
Undecided: 7%

Gallup: Democratic Alabama Caucus:

George Wallace: 64%
Sam Yorty: 17%
Fred Harris: 6%
Ed Muskie: 4%
George McGovern: 2%
Undecided: 7%

Gallup: Democratic Georgia Caucus:

George Wallace: 46%
Sam Yorty: 23%
Fred Harris: 18%
Ed Muskie: 8%
George McGovern: 5%
Morris Udall: 3%
Undecided: 7%

Gallup: Democratic North Carolina Primary:

George Wallace: 31%
Sam Yorty: 28%
Fred Harris: 18%
Ed Muskie: 10%
George McGovern: 7%
Undecided: 5%

Gallup: Democratic North Dakota Caucus:

George McGovern: 47%
Morris Udall: 19%
Fred Harris: 16%
Ed Muskie: 6%
Sam Yorty: 6%
George Wallace: 2%
Undecided: 4%

Gallup: Democratic Mississippi Caucus:

George Wallace: 38%
Sam Yorty: 23%
Fred Harris: 10%
George McGovern: 9%
Ed Muskie: 8%
Morris Udall: 7%
Undecided: 5%

Gallup: Democratic Louisiana Caucus:

George Wallace: 31%
Sam Yorty: 28%
Fred Harris: 15%
Ed Muskie: 9%
George McGovern: 7%
Morris Udall: 4%
Undecided: 6%

[Lumine]

So let's say I pull a hail Mary in one of the early primary states this turn. Would that increase my numbers in the upcoming contests even though there isn't a turn in between?

It would, yes! There is a certain domino effect for the early states as they gradually mount, although just how much influence early victories have depend on the candidate, margin of victory and a few adjustments I make with a number randomizer.

Hi!

It's fine if there aren't any primary polls, but I would like to know if I'm losing in any of the upcoming primary/caucus states or if my winning margin is small (i.e. <7 pts).

Or basically just whether or not you're going to let me win all the states without campaigning (I think I'll go insane if I have to do what I did last round again ).

Thanks!

No margin of danger, Dar, not even in Alabama. As it stands, OTL Nixon didn't lose a single state to two declared candidates, so even if some Goldwater Jr supporters write-in my policy is that you won't lose a state if there's no actual challenger (you might lose delegates if those write-in are more than 15% in some places).

Also, all of this took a long time (especially polling, which is hell), so the debate questions will come up tomorrow. You have exactly one week, until the afternoon of the 1st of October to post your schedules. I grant a week because the efforts involved here will probably be rather large, but there will be no extensions. By 10 PM or so forum time that day, results will arrive one way or another.

[Lumine]

McGovern never filed for Massachusetts or Pennsylvania.

#plottwist'72

Are you sure? I do have him on the ballot list, but I suppose I'll have to check.

[Lumine]

Well, so much for that research on MA and PA polling I just did... Yep, I'm afraid McGovern didn't file in, so I'll have to adjust the polling to account for that (like Wallace and Udall, he can still go for a write-in campaign there, but they are not included in polling).

General Election maps will probably depend on how much time I have. Making a single GE poll with Generic Dem is torture, making four will probably take time...

[Lumine]

Well shoot. I guess I cannot compete in Mass. Or Penn. ;-;

I can't file for the Massachusetts and Pennsylvania primaries, I guess.

Nope, all you can do is campaign for write-in votes.

[Lumine]

For what it's worth, you've been doing a tremendous job as GM and you're one of the best ones these games have ever had. From past experience I know how much time has to be devoted to a game like this. Keep up the great work!

Thank you, gentlemen, that really means a lot! Debate will be up today, and remember you have until Wednesday afternoon.

How do you guys do it ?! I mean.... you guys are able to keep the game going !

I'm not quite sure myself,  but I'm more than pleased at how the game has worked despite being an election not as popular as 2008 or 2012. I hope the 2016 Game works as well!

[Lumine]

How many endorsements may we seek?

Six is the limit for the turn.

On another note, I will suspend the debate, given that I lacked the time before and the round has been a bit inactive. That said, this is still ending tomorrow.

[Lumine]

Well, gentlemen, we have a problem. A week has passed and not many have posted, which does put me into a dilemma on how exactly to proceed.

Any suggestions?

[Lumine]

Mayor-Commisioner Walter Washington of D. C.

"Never before has our city been so ready for a movement. After the fighting for civil rights and many riots, we were tense and ready to spring. I am proud to endorse Representative Morris Udall's campaign for the Presidency, and I feel good to know that I am part of the movement of hope."

Acting Mayor Sanford Garelik of New York City

Former First Lady of New York City Mary née Burke Lindsay

I will finish this tomorrow.

I those are endorsements, Kingpoleon, you have to ask them via PM to me first, they are not automatic.

[Lumine]

What states are the results coming out, only April 25 states, or all of them. If all of them, I'll ask for extension?

It's actually all of them. Right, it's not like I have enough time to provide an update anyway, so this is extended again.

[Lumine]

That much is true, but it still is kind of worrying, xD

Friday afternoon it is, I'll be free that time!