Why did Romney Lose Florida?
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  Why did Romney Lose Florida?
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Author Topic: Why did Romney Lose Florida?  (Read 12853 times)
sg0508
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« Reply #25 on: August 16, 2015, 10:08:33 PM »

Chuck Todd mentioned it was the Puerto Rican vote and the Cuban vote that did it for Obama in FL.
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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #26 on: August 16, 2015, 10:25:06 PM »

Chuck Todd mentioned it was the Puerto Rican vote and the Cuban vote that did it for Obama in FL.

Yeah if Romney had received the same levels of support from Hispanics (moreso the Puerto Rican and Cuban vote) as John McCain did in 2008, Romney would have won here.
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sg0508
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« Reply #27 on: August 16, 2015, 10:26:41 PM »

There is also a large homosexual population down here in south FL, and they went heavily to the President.
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DS0816
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« Reply #28 on: September 04, 2015, 10:17:56 PM »

Chuck Todd mentioned it was the Puerto Rican vote and the Cuban vote that did it for Obama in FL.

Which was great news for John McCain.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #29 on: September 08, 2015, 08:27:56 PM »

Same reason why Pat Murphy will win the senate race. Blacks are voting proportionately in FL to Latino vote. It is becoming more of a swing state.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #30 on: September 10, 2015, 10:26:25 PM »

There is also a large homosexual population down here in south FL, and they went heavily to the President.

This is true.  The national exit poll actually had a 49/49 statistical tie between Obama and Romney among straight people, which is just crazy to think about because that's 95% of 2012 voters.
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Oldiesfreak1854
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« Reply #31 on: September 11, 2015, 08:56:36 AM »

Hispanics, and more precisely Cubans, probably put Obama over the top as they swung heavily Democratic. If they were at 2008 levels Romney probably would've won the state.
If that's true, it would be remarkable, since Cuban Americans have generally been one of the most solidly GOP voting blocs.
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sg0508
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« Reply #32 on: September 11, 2015, 09:50:53 AM »

Hispanics, and more precisely Cubans, probably put Obama over the top as they swung heavily Democratic. If they were at 2008 levels Romney probably would've won the state.
If that's true, it would be remarkable, since Cuban Americans have generally been one of the most solidly GOP voting blocs.
That trend has been weakening, especially amongst younger Cuban voters.  If the statewide Democratic Party were stronger here in FL than they currently are, Democrats would be mopping the floor in statewide races.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #33 on: September 11, 2015, 11:03:22 AM »

Hispanics, and more precisely Cubans, probably put Obama over the top as they swung heavily Democratic. If they were at 2008 levels Romney probably would've won the state.
If that's true, it would be remarkable, since Cuban Americans have generally been one of the most solidly GOP voting blocs.
That trend has been weakening, especially amongst younger Cuban voters.  If the statewide Democratic Party were stronger here in FL than they currently are, Democrats would be mopping the floor in statewide races.

It will be interesting to see if Cubans swing further D or a bit back R after Obama's diplomatic actions regarding Cuba.  I think it will be the latter.
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #34 on: December 01, 2015, 11:03:29 PM »

African American turnout swung it because white turnout declined so much. (Florida's African american population is approximately 16.7% according to the 2010 census, a lot high than one might think). I seriously doubt that it will go democrat in 2016 if the nominee is Clinton or Sanders.
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Uhh_murican
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« Reply #35 on: December 10, 2015, 06:03:41 PM »

Hispanics, and more precisely Cubans, probably put Obama over the top as they swung heavily Democratic. If they were at 2008 levels Romney probably would've won the state.
If that's true, it would be remarkable, since Cuban Americans have generally been one of the most solidly GOP voting blocs.

Yeah, it's true.
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Blair
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« Reply #36 on: December 10, 2015, 07:27:10 PM »

Hispanics, and more precisely Cubans, probably put Obama over the top as they swung heavily Democratic. If they were at 2008 levels Romney probably would've won the state.
If that's true, it would be remarkable, since Cuban Americans have generally been one of the most solidly GOP voting blocs.
That trend has been weakening, especially amongst younger Cuban voters.  If the statewide Democratic Party were stronger here in FL than they currently are, Democrats would be mopping the floor in statewide races.

It will be interesting to see if Cubans swing further D or a bit back R after Obama's diplomatic actions regarding Cuba.  I think it will be the latter.

IIRC cubans largely support it, something like 60%. It's only the alpha 66 lot who are strongly opposed along with generic neo-cons
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Clarko95 📚💰📈
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« Reply #37 on: December 10, 2015, 08:29:17 PM »

Also important to remember that Obama 770 paid staffers in Florida to Romney's 500 nationwide (Obama had 3,000 nationwide), in addition to hundreds of thousands of volunteers.


Ground game was unstoppable, and Obama revved it up in very early 2012.



Additionally, Florida was really hurt by the housing crash, and being just 4 years after the financial crisis, that was still very fresh in peoples' minds.
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #38 on: December 16, 2015, 11:50:12 PM »

african american turnout and that is proven by the fivethirtyeight.com model for the 2016 election. Move turnout down to 2004 levels for african americans and Romney carries the state. If hispanic turnout declines to 2004 levels, Florida becomes even more republican. If white turnout increases the trend continues. Florida is still an uphill battle for democrats...although the hill is small.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #39 on: December 20, 2015, 09:02:16 PM »

The Mariel boat-lift brought a different group of Cubans than the Cubans who left Cuba soon after the Castro takeover. The Cuban refugees of the early 1960s were as a rule whiter, better-educated, professionals and landowners. The later group of Cubans were not so white, not so well-educated, definitely not landowners, and not connected to existing reactionary politics in America.

But even the Cuban-Americans descended from early refugees are assimilating, often with non-Cuban Hispanics... and many have job classifications (such as teaching) that might overpower other political considerations.   
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StatesPoll
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« Reply #40 on: December 26, 2015, 12:44:38 PM »

imo it was because of black turnout. black turn out was used to be 60%(2004)
but in 2008,2012 it was very high as 65%,66% each.
because black people had huge motivation to makes black president.
if black turnout was 60%. romney could take florida (because it was just 1% gap)
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