I assume we used the same census estimates, but we have slight differences. I'm curious what you used for the projections.
On April 21, the Census Bureau released what it is calling an "interim projection", which includes annual projections from 2004 through 2010.
Using the projections, I get the same results as Vorlon, other than an increase of 2 for Florida, and a decrease of 2 for New York. The Florida value is very solid, with a population projected to be greater than 27 seats (i.e. it's not somewhere between 26 and 27).
436th.
Agreed, as noted Florida is projected to be pushing towards 28.
Georgia is 435, with a gap of about 0.22% over Alabama (this is equivalent to 10 to 20 people).
433. Economy apprently improving enough to squeeze by.
Also 437 based on projections.
I went through the projections year by year. If seats were apportioned annually, the following changes would occur:
2000-2004 AZ+1 TX+1 UT+1 IA-1 OH-1 PA-1
2005 FL+1 TX+2 (i.e. 2nd Texas gain) MO-1 NY-1
2006 NV+1 IL-1
2007
2008 FL+2 MA-1
2009 CA+1 OH-2
2010 GA+1 TX+3 AL-1 NY-2 (this is Georgia's only gain through 2030).
2011 AZ+2 LA-1 (FL becomes 3rd most populous state)
2012 FL+3 PA-2
2013
2014 NC+1 TX+4 MI-1 NE-1 (893,000 in each Ne CD).
2015 FL+4 NY-3
2016 VA+1 WV-1 (MT goes past 1 million in CD, and not getting closer to 2nd)
2017 WA+1 NJ-1
2018 AZ+3 FL+5 TX+5 IL-2 OH-3 VA-1
A real curious phenomenon. VA keeps gaining and losing the extra seat, as it gains population faster than the US as whole, but population for 435 keeps increasing faster. Virginia gains the seat as a laggard drops below it, but then a speed merchant like AZ, FL, or TX zooms past.
2019 OR+1 NY-4 (AK larger than average CD).
2020 VA+1 PA-2
2021 NV +1 IN-1
2022 FL+1 VA-1
2023 VA+1 NY-1 (CA fails to gain 55th seat with population greater than 55/435).
2024 AZ+4 TX+6 NY-5 OH-4
2025 FL+7 IL-3
2026 CA+2 WI-1 (CA population equivalent to 55.313 before gaining 55th seat)
2027 FL+8 TX+7 MA-2 RI-1 (RI becomes largest CD at 1.156M).
2028
2029 AZ+5 FL+9 NC+2 TX+8 CT-1 KY-1 NY-6 PA-4
2030
2030+ In danger zone (IA-2 KS-1 MN-1 (only 1 to 2% margin entire period) NM-1
SC still at 6 (right in the middle too 6.167).
MD not yet quite to 9th seat. Will they regret not accepting the DC deal 25 years earlier? By 2030, CD would be about 50:50 split between DC and Maryland.
Poll
