poll: The 'Kerry' states in 2012

[Beet]

I voted 1-6, though I think that will be made up for by one or two states moving from lean Republican to lean Democrat.  New Hampshire already has, but I think Nevada and Colorado will do so by 2012.

I hope you're right. As the South moves to the right it will be important for the Democrats to do better in the West. Arizona could be critical. I think the fact that Goldwater was from that state held it in the Republican column for so long. Now McCain also, but who knows.

Arizona should eventually lean liberal, but later than Colorado and much later than Nevada.  However these fast-growing, state can change so quickly!

Its one thing to hope, its another thing to put someone up to challenge Kyl.

[Beet]

I think 1-6. I wonder how long New York will continue to bleed EVs.

As long as thay aren't growing at or near the national average. A big state is more sensitive to slight differences in its rate of growth compared to the nation. A small state generally needs a substantial difference in rate to go up or down.

The funny thing is New York City is doing great for itself compared to D.C., Baltimore, Philly, Boston, Chicago, Detroit, Cleveland, and all the other cities in the northeast.