Irish general election, 26th Feb 2016

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Dublin South West declared Brophy (FG) and Zappone (Ind) the last to be elected. Zappone's election is being challenged by FG who are demanding a recount but imo the gap of 152 votes might be too much to bridge. If her election is confirmed then Zappone will become the first open lesbian to enter the Dail.

Also in Roscommon-Galway Eugene Murphy (FF) has been elected, along with two independents confirmed earlier. This means that Roscommon-Galway will be without an FG TD, probably the only such seat in the country (although Dublin North West is another possibility).

[Vosem]

In Dublin South-Central, 1 FG, 1 SF, and 1 ind (Joan Collins, formerly of the PBP) have all been elected. At the last count, with two candidates (Catherine Ardagh of Fianna Fail and Brid Smith of PBP) remaining, the difference between them is just 5 votes -- 7841-7836. This one may see some repeated recounting.

[DavidB.]

In Dublin South-Central, 1 FG, 1 SF, and 1 ind (Joan Collins, formerly of the PBP) have all been elected. At the last count, with two candidates (Catherine Ardagh of Fianna Fail and Brid Smith of PBP) remaining, the difference between them is just 5 votes -- 7841-7836. This one may see some repeated recounting.

Recounting that must be hell. STV is the wet dream of first-year political science students all around the world, but this election has once again convinced me that it is, in reality, a highly undesirable system, for numerous reasons.

[Vosem]

In Dublin South-Central, 1 FG, 1 SF, and 1 ind (Joan Collins, formerly of the PBP) have all been elected. At the last count, with two candidates (Catherine Ardagh of Fianna Fail and Brid Smith of PBP) remaining, the difference between them is just 5 votes -- 7841-7836. This one may see some repeated recounting.

Recounting that must be hell. STV is the wet dream of first-year political science students all around the world, but this election has once again convinced me that it is, in reality, a highly undesirable system, for numerous reasons.

Speaking of recounting that, the RTE website now has Smith ahead of Ardagh by 35 votes, though there is still no checkmark by either woman.

As to ideal political system, every country is different, though my ideal legislative chamber would probably be a mixture of Australia's HoR (with some elected from individual-member STV seats) and Senate (others elected from a list in order to ensure proportionality, with no or very little barrier to getting on the ballot and numbering every candidate mandatory, to ensure that sometimes even very small parties get to have their voices heard).

"Civil War politics" is a problem in Ireland, but if that's what the voters elect as their main political faultline, then so be it; what the country needs in my mind is to fight the epidemic of independent politicians that prevent majorities for all but the most unwieldy of coalitions.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

In Dublin South-Central, 1 FG, 1 SF, and 1 ind (Joan Collins, formerly of the PBP) have all been elected. At the last count, with two candidates (Catherine Ardagh of Fianna Fail and Brid Smith of PBP) remaining, the difference between them is just 5 votes -- 7841-7836. This one may see some repeated recounting.

Recounting that must be hell. STV is the wet dream of first-year political science students all around the world, but this election has once again convinced me that it is, in reality, a highly undesirable system, for numerous reasons.

Speaking of recounting that, the RTE website now has Smith ahead of Ardagh by 35 votes, though there is still no checkmark by either woman.

As to ideal political system, every country is different, though my ideal legislative chamber would probably be a mixture of Australia's HoR (with some elected from individual-member STV seats) and Senate (others elected from a list in order to ensure proportionality, with no or very little barrier to getting on the ballot and numbering every candidate mandatory, to ensure that sometimes even very small parties get to have their voices heard).

"Civil War politics" is a problem in Ireland, but if that's what the voters elect as their main political faultline, then so be it; what the country needs in my mind is to fight the epidemic of independent politicians that prevent majorities for all but the most unwieldy of coalitions.

In your first post you forgot that Collins surplus of 52 votes had to be distributed, that was the final court and why Smith jumped ahead of Ardagh.

[Vosem]

Do FF preferences generally go to SF or FG? If the latter, then FG can still get 2 seats off of a second-place performance in Wexford; if the former, SF gets a seat there, while the 2 FG candidates must battle for the last seat (right now, there is a 1-vote difference between ex-TD Michael D'Arcy Jr., one of very few unlucky FG TDs to lose in 2011, and incumbent TD Paul Kehoe).

[RodPresident]

Do FF preferences generally go to SF or FG? If the latter, then FG can still get 2 seats off of a second-place performance in Wexford; if the former, SF gets a seat there, while the 2 FG candidates must battle for the last seat (right now, there is a 1-vote difference between ex-TD Michael D'Arcy Jr., one of very few unlucky FG TDs to lose in 2011, and incumbent TD Paul Kehoe).

Looks that Wexford FF people doesn't like SF too much. Mythen only got 573 preferences from Byrne.

[Јas]

The count in Wexford has been suspended until Monday, when they'll begin with a recount, at the request of the SF candidate.

The last declaration was Count 13 which elected Mick Wallace (Independent 4 Change).

The state of play at Count 13:

Howlin (Lab)	Elected Count 9
Browne (FF)	Elected Count 10
Wallace (i4C)	13,420
D'Arcy (FG)	11,371
Kehoe (FG)	9,593
Mythen (SF)	9,405

Quota 11,944
Seats  5

Count 14 would be the distribution of the Wallace surplus of 1,476 - but, as I say, SF have called for a recount.

I'm surprised Mythen didn't wait until the Wallace surplus was distributed.
But hey, more fun and games Monday.

[Јas]

The hardy folk of Cork East are the only ones still counting.
What need have people for sleep when there's votes to be counted!

The latest declaration...

Count 8: Distribution of the eliminated votes of Paul Bradford, Renua

Sherlock (Lab)	9,916
O'Keefe (FF)	9,880
Stanton (FG)	9,647
Buckley (SF)	8,175
Ahern (FF)	6,216
McCarthy (FG)	6,203

Quota 10,562
Seats  4

Count 9 will be the elimination of McCarthy and distribution of his votes.

Looks like Cork East will end up: 1 FG, 1 Lab, 1 FF, 1 SF

[RodPresident]

Why does RTÉ puts Independents For Change with other independents while showing Independent Alliance?

[Јas]

By the by, the excellent irishpoliticalmaps.com has been updating election maps of vote share and seats, and is well worth a look.

[Јas]

The Sunday papers...

[Antonio the Sixth]

"FF to demand Taoiseach's office in any deal"? Even though they clearly came in second? Dear Lord, their 2011 disaster hasn't shaken their sense of entitlement one bit!

[RodPresident]

"FF to demand Taoiseach's office in any deal"? Even though they clearly came in second? Dear Lord, their 2011 disaster hasn't shaken their sense of entitlement one bit!

Problem is that FG without FF wouldn't have any road to power, while FF have many roads.

[Јas]

Jas Projection:

Constituency	FG	FF	SF	Lab	Other	Notes
Carlow-Kilk	2	2	1			RESULT
Cavan-Mon	1	2	1			Last seat too close to call really between FF, FG, and SF
Clare	2	1			1 Ind (Harty)
Cork E	1	1	1	1		RESULT
Cork NC	1	1	1		1 AAA-PBP
Cork NW	1	2				RESULT
Cork SC	1	2	1
Cork SW	1	1			1 Ind (Collins)	RESULT
Donegal	1	2	1		1 Ind (Pringle)	Last seat is still too close to call between Pringle and SF
Dub Bay N	1	1	1		1 IndAlliance (McGrath); 1 Ind4Change (Broughan)	Potentially subject to substantial change
Dub Bay S	2	1		1	1 Green	Last seat too close to call between FF and Lab
Dub Central	1		1		1 Ind (O’Sullivan)
Dub Fingal	1	1	1	1	1 Ind4Change (Daly)
Dub MW	1	1	1		1 AAA-PBP	RESULT
Dub NW	1		1		1 SocDem	Last seat too close to call between FG and FF
Dub Rathdown	1				1 IndAlliance (Ross); 1 Green	RESULT
Dub SC	1		1		1 AAA-PBP, 1 Ind4Change (Collins)
Dub SW	1	1	1		1 AAA-PBP; 1 Ind (Zappone)	RESULT
Dub W	1	1		1	1 AAA-PBP	RESULT
Dún Laoghaire	3				1 AAA-PBP	RESULT
Galway E	1	1			1 IndAlliance (Canney)	RESULT
Galway W	2	1			2 Inds (Grealish, Connolly)	Potentially subject to substantial change
Kerry	1	1	1		2 Inds (Healy-Raes)
Kildare N	1	2			1 SocDem	Last seat too close to call between FF and FG
Kildare S	1	2				RESULT
Laois	1	1	1			RESULT
Limerick City	1	1	1	1		RESULT
Limerick Co	2	1				RESULT
L'ford-W'Meath	1	1	1		1 IndAlliance (Moran)	Last seat too close to call between SF and FG
Louth	2	1	2			Last seat probably FG, but can't quite absolutely rule out Lab yet
Mayo	2	2				Last seat too close to call between FF and FG
Meath E	2	1				RESULT
Meath W	1	1	1			RESULT
Offaly	1	1	1			RESULT
Roscommon-Gal		1			1 Ind (Naughten); 1 IndAlliance (Fitzmaurice)	RESULT
Sligo-Leitrim	1	2	1			Last seat too close to call between FF and FG
Tipperary	1	1			1 WUAG, 2 Inds (Lowry, McGrath)	Last seat too close to call between FG and Lab
Waterford	1	1	1		1 IndAlliance (Halligan)
Wexford	2	1		1	1 Ind4Change (Wallace)	Last seat too close to call between FG and SF
Wicklow	2	1	1		1 SocDem	Last seat too close to call between FG and Renua
TOTAL	51	44	24	6	34

Totals
51 Fine Gael
44 Fianna Fáil
24 Sinn Féin
  6 Labour
  6 AAA-PBP
  6 Independent Alliance 
  4 Independents 4 Change
  3 Social Democrats
  2 Green
  1 WUAG
  0 Renua
12 Independents

158 Total

[Јas]

Cork East count is complete.

Seats: 4
Quota: 10,562

	Count 8	Count 9	Count 10
Sherlock (Lab)	9,916	11,803
Stanton (FG)	9,647	11,558
O'Keefe (FF)	9,880	11,035
Buckley (SF)	8,175	8,457	8,639
Ahern (FF)	6,216	6,432	6,781
McCarthy (FG)	6,203

And with that, we await the resumption of counting around the country later this morning.

[Јas]

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http://www.rte.ie/news/election-2016/2016/0228/771304-live-election-2016-national-updates/

[Јas]

Counting has now resumed in Cork North Central.
Most will restart at the top of the next hour.

[Јas]

It's officially the lowest FPV of a leading party in any Irish general election.

Previous record: June 1927, FF polled 26.2%.
New record: 2016, FG polled 25.5%.

[Јas]

More Sunday papers...

[YL]

Donegal, count 7, 5 seater, quota 12218

McConalogue (FF) elected
P. Doherty (SF) 11190
The Cope Gallagher (FF) 11160
McHugh (FG) 11016
Pringle (Ind) 7522
MacLochlainn (SF) 6032
Jackson (Ind) 4524
Shiels (Ind) 4463
G. Doherty (SF) 4456 and out

With that elimination being by 7 votes, there's going to be a recount.  Whatever happens, I'd think the remaining transfers are going to have to go better than expected for SF for them to get MacLochlainn ahead of Pringle.  SF might regret running three candidates.

[YL]

In Dublin South-Central, 1 FG, 1 SF, and 1 ind (Joan Collins, formerly of the PBP) have all been elected. At the last count, with two candidates (Catherine Ardagh of Fianna Fail and Brid Smith of PBP) remaining, the difference between them is just 5 votes -- 7841-7836. This one may see some repeated recounting.

Recounting that must be hell. STV is the wet dream of first-year political science students all around the world, but this election has once again convinced me that it is, in reality, a highly undesirable system, for numerous reasons.

Speaking of recounting that, the RTE website now has Smith ahead of Ardagh by 35 votes, though there is still no checkmark by either woman.

Re Dublin South Central, this morning the RTE website says:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[ObserverIE]

LONGFORD-WESTMEATH: Adjourned after three counts with 1FF in.  There is a quota each for FG and IA; the final seat is between SF, Lab, the second FG candidate (thanks to good balancing) and the second FF candidate.

FF are being irrationally optimistic here. I don't see her as being in the hunt; she got quite a poor transfer from her party colleague Troy. They threw away the chance of a seat here through the selection f***-up.

The third FG candidate's transfers will make the internal balance worse because of geography. The key are the transfers of Sexton (Ind) and Morgan (Ind All), both of whom are based in Longford, as are Bannon and Gerety-Quinn. The two big party candidates, however, were perceived locally as weak (Bannon being viewed as an embarrassment) so it will be interesting to see how willing the independent, anti-big two, voters will be to keep their votes within the county.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I looked up the Mae Sexton woman running as an indy, and she's apparantly a ProgDem turned Labour turned indy? Oh, Irish politics.

[ObserverIE]

I looked up the Mae Sexton woman running as an indy, and she's apparantly a ProgDem turned Labour turned indy? Oh, Irish politics.

She's from a FF family - her father was a local councillor - who was elected as an independent in 1991, courted at the time by both Labour and the PDs and chose the party then in opposition, got elected as a TD in an almost freak result in 2002, and went back to being an independent after the demise of the PDs in 2008 until Labour courted her again in the run-up to the 2011 election. She then left the party in 2012.

In British terms, she would be a pavement politics Lib Dem.