Irish general election, 26th Feb 2016

[DavidB.]

What a weird woman from AAA on RTÉ.

[Green Line]

What a weird woman from AAA on RTÉ.

She sounded like she was on drugs.

Irish politicians are much more open and less scripted than Americans.  It's refreshing

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Limerick County

[BundouYMB]

Wait, is Alan Shatter going to lose his seat? He's currently only 100 votes ahead of the GP candidate in the race for the third seat, and the GP candidate is getting way more transfers.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Cork South West

[Cassius]

Martin and McGrath both elected on the first count in Cork South Central.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Trot takes the lead in Don Laoghaire, but nobody past the quota yet.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Labour's Alex White TD is officially been kicked out!

In SW there is a huge dogpile, but FF, Murphy of the PBP. two Blueshirts, Crow (shinner) and maybe even Zappone are in the running.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

[Tetro Kornbluth]

[ObserverIE]

Brendan Howlin topping the poll for some reason.

Wexford has been stuffed with pork under his mini-reign.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

[ObserverIE]

Apologies for my absence, but I have been tallying in Longford-Westmeath, where it looks quite possible that all three sitting government TDs will lose their seats.

Full tally:

*Troy (FF) 11,507
Moran (Ind All) 7,275
Burke (FG) 5,646
Hogan (SF) 5,173
*Penrose (Lab) 4,721
*Bannon (FG) 4,547
Gerety-Quinn (FF) 3,854
Morgan (Ind All) 3,327
*McFadden (FG) 2,754
Sexton (Ind) 1,613
Magan (GP) 1,083
Fagan (Ind All) 933
McKervey (CD) 648
Parker (SP) 502
Smyth (Ind) 347
Miller (Ind) 203
Healy (DDI) 168
Jackson (Ind) 52

Seats look like 1 FF, 1 FG but with a change of personnel (McFadden will transfer to Burke ahead of Bannon), 1 Ind All and the last seat an all-in battle between SF, Lab and Bannon in that order of likelihood.

A measure of the degree to which FG have f***ed up things is that in Longford, where FF had an all-in row over their choice of candidate, they still managed to poll more votes than FG.

Labour heading for their long-predicted annihilation, with the likes of Penrose and Emmet Stagg struggling or gone altogether.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Massive Shinner underperformance in Dublin South West btw.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

[Antonio the Sixth]

Jesus F**king Christ, this is depressing.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Laois is the first constituency to finish with Stanley (SF) and Flanagan (FG) are elected along with Fleming (FF) from earlier, as expected.

In Galway East Rabbitte (FF) and Canney (IND) have been elected just waiting for the distribution of both candidates surpluses to announce Ciaran Cannon (FG) the last elected.

[Vosem]

Jesus F**king Christ, this is depressing.

But on the flipside...there's no way these results hold, right? This seems to me like the exact sort of result that would result in a revote.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Jesus F**king Christ, this is depressing.

But on the flipside...there's no way these results hold, right? This seems to me like the exact sort of result that would result in a revote.

...which will result in a FF landslide and return Ireland to the dark age of Ahern.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Fianna Fail's gains in vote are nearly outside Dublin (their seat gains in Dublin are more to a) very small increase in vote and b) better candidate strategy than in 2011, and clearly taken near exclusively from people who voted FG in 2011. This is a revival, but it's not a comeback to the Ahern era.

[Јas]

An analysis by the Irish Times of all 40 constituencies suggests that Fianna Fail could win over 42 seats putting them within two to three seats of Fine Gael, which looks like it will win between 43 and 47 seats. 

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Roscommon-Galway (aka payback for the closure of Roscommon Hospital's A&E unit)

[Vosem]

Jesus F**king Christ, this is depressing.

But on the flipside...there's no way these results hold, right? This seems to me like the exact sort of result that would result in a revote.

...which will result in a FF landslide and return Ireland to the dark age of Ahern.

Can't say I'm any more enthusiastic about an FF revival than you are, but hopefully the next election will correct and not perpetuate.

EDIT: Could Social Democrats do very well in a revote? They've topped the poll in three separate constituencies, but they aren't standing candidates everywhere. They seem like they fit the Irish zeitgeist fairly well.

[YL]

Current TDs elected are FF 12, FG 4, SF 3, SD 3 (their three outgoing TDs), Independent Alliance 2 and one other Independent (Naughten in Roscommon-Galway).