Which President reelection looked the most Bleak after their first midterm

[The Mikado]

Obama was nowhere near sunk after the 2010 midterms. The Congressional Democrats were taken to the cleaners, but it was clear even during the election coverage that a lot of that was Obama's personal vote not showing up to vote in an offyear, whether out of apathy or out of disgust for the way Obama's first two years went. Obama's task in 2012 was to convince people who had supported him in 2008 to come home and turn out again.

Clinton had gotten a commanding...43% of the vote in 1992. The overwhelming majority of the country had voted for not-Clinton in his first election, and his Congress was overwhelmingly turned out in 1994. Clinton looked absolutely hosed and had the far bigger challenge of persuading people who had voted for not-him in 1992 to vote for him in 1996.