Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: coalition agreement presented

[Tintrlvr]

To continue the attempted France analogy above, in terms of voter profile, the FvD is the FN in the 1990s, but the PVV is the FN today.

[parochial boy]

For non-Dutch speaking people (do any non-Dutch speaking people read this anymore ?)

Hey, no, this was a really interesting conversation - Atlas at its best.

My one question to add is, is there any crossover between CU/SGP voters and the Right Wing Populists?

Abusing the French analogy a bit - the FN has always had a Conservative Catholic wing to it, even where the core of the contemporary vote, employés and ouvriers outside urban areas are largely secularised and indiffirent to traditional religious-style social conservatism.

[mvd10]

Probably not between CU and PVV. CU is fairly left-wing on immigration and things like that. Their voters might be a bit more sceptical about multiculturalism but I don't think CU-PVV swing voters really exist, CU voters still really hate proposals like banning the Quran or closing down mosques.

SGP voters (and their party) are very critical of the Islam so they might see Wilders as an ally but I can't see much movement from the SGP to the PVV. If the SGP suddenly stopped existing most of their voters probably would vote for CU and stomach their leftish views on Islam and immigration. Basically all SGP voters live in the Bible Belt and are very religious (this party didn't allow women to run for office until a few years ago), so I think they still see issues like euthanasia as more important than immigration and the EU (both CU and SGP are fairly eurosceptic btw). And the SGP vote doesn't really swing anyway. There are 250.000 people who will vote for the SGP no matter what, and there are 10 million people who never will vote for the SGP. PVV doesn't seem to perform terribly well in our Bible Belt either. The PVV's growth in the Bible Belt probably comes from people who were already voting VVD or CDA.

There are some people who researched how happy and how optimistic voters were. PVV voters were the least happy and the second least optimistic. SGP voters however were the happiest (tied with VVD voters), but they also were the most pessimistic (only PVV comes close). CU voters were slightly happer and slightly more optimistic than the average.

According to the 2017 exit polls the PVV did better with non religious people (13%) and Catholics (19%) than with Protestants (8%) or people with another religion (3%). Almost all SGP voters obviously are Calvinists (Protestants). The PVV probably does better with members of more conservative churches (which are likely to vote SGP) than with members of the more activist Protestant Church of the Netherlands (this is were the CDA's left-wingers come from and they hate the PVV) but overall these numbers aren't very convincing. 

Ideologically there definitely is a lot of overlap between SGP and PVV voters, but the vast majority of SGP voters just isn't going to vote for a "secular" party (or any party that isn't the SGP or CU for that matter). And culturally there also are a lot of differences (the difference in "net happiness" is huge). This guy also found out the PVV barely won votes from the SGP.

[Zinneke]

also worth noting places like Urk now have a sizeable PVV voter base that probably isn't from internal migrants from the rest of the Netherlands. But mvd is probably right when saying they previously voted VVD/CDA at some point.

[mvd10]

The SGP vote share in Urk only increased after 2006 (even the SGP/CU vote significantly increased). CDA dramatically collapsed (from 37% in 2006 to 14% in 2017). VVD went from nothing to 6% in 2012 and back. Only 11% of Urk voted PVV btw, that's still below their national average. The CU collapse in Urk also is interesting. They went from 22% in this very religious municipality in 2006 to 12% in 2017 while not losing that much nationwide (they went from 6 to 5 seats). Maybe they were not happy with CU's leftish positions on immigration and went to the SGP? SGP went from 34% in 2006 to 56% in 2017. It's pretty hilarious how the most right-wing municipality in the country also is the weakest VVD municipality.

[mvd10]

My post on the VVD and the PvdA reaching a deal about teachers' salaries was premature, apparently there is no such deal. According to the Volkskrant VVD leaders told PvdA leaders that they don't yet want to spend more money on teachers. A couple of months ago Asscher (PvdA leader) said he would let the cabinet fall if the VVD didn't agree to spend more money on teachers. This angered the VVD because it's very unusual for a demissionary cabinet to make big changes in policy and because the PvdA would likely get all the credit if the VVD agreed to spend more on education (people would think only Asscher's threats made the VVD agree). Both parties still hope to find a solution.

Some people think CDA, D66 and CU forced the VVD to walk away from the deal because it's still unclear what the budgetary policy of a new cabinet will look like, but sources deny this. They say there never was a deal between the VVD and the PvdA in the first place.

[DavidB.]

Amazing. Sharon Gesthuizen, SP MP from 2006 until 2017 and losing candidate for the chairmanship, wrote a book about her experiences in the SP. She describes how former party leader and longterm chairman Jan Marijnissen was present at all parliamentary group meetings, intimidated MPs (sometimes under the influence of alcohol), and set up Roemer to fail on tv. He talked degradingly about women and made sure the SP only focused on healthcare and bread-and-butter issues, not on the environment, refugees (a subject Gesthuizen found to be relevant), integration, or SMEs. When Gesthuizen, who was used as former party leader Agnes Kant's personal slave even when elected as an MP, suffered from a burn-out, Kant told her that it was her own fault and she better be back at work soon, otherwise her days in the SP would be numbered. A crazy and frightening story, but unfortunately very credible.

Links in Dutch: http://politiek.tpo.nl/2017/08/31/elf-jaar-knoet-jan-marijnissen/; https://www.volkskrant.nl/politiek/voormalig-sp-kamerlid-gesthuizen-bekritiseert-marijnissen-in-boek-ik-voelde-me-nooit-veilig~a4514409/

[mvd10]

Everyone already knew the SP was a dictatorship (and their party chairman election was about as democratic as your average election in Zimbabwe or whatever), but this really is interesting. I hope this receives as much media attention as all the VVD scandals (yes, I'm that kind of butthurt hack ). As far as I know there actually were some interesting stories about Meyer's time in Heerlen (dodgy real estate deals), but that was the Telegraaf to be honest. Lately the SP also got in the news for one of their MP's living in social housing ("skew inhabitants") and the party leaders giving themselves a big wage increase. And they still refuse to condemn Maduro (Sadet Karadulut didn't see much wrong with the things Maduro is doing). I understand that the media hates far-right deplorables, but the SP gets off way too easily imo. They're as bad as the PVV on these things. Rutte really should have ruled out working with them, and I really hated Pechtold when he said he preferred a coalition with the SP over a coalition with the CU (luckily Roemer ruled out any coalition with the VVD).

Amazing. Sharon Gesthuizen, SP MP from 2006 until 2017 and losing candidate for the chairmanship, wrote a book about her experiences in the SP. She describes how former party leader and longterm chairman Jan Marijnissen was present at all parliamentary group meetings, intimidated MPs (sometimes under the influence of alcohol), and set up Roemer to fail on tv. He talked degradingly about women and made sure the SP only focused on healthcare and bread-and-butter issues, not on the environment, refugees (a subject Gesthuizen found to be relevant), integration, or SMEs. When Gesthuizen, who was used as former party leader Agnes Kant's personal slave even when elected as an MP, suffered from a burn-out, Kant told her that it was her own fault and she better be back at work soon, otherwise her days in the SP would be numbered. A crazy and frightening story, but unfortunately very credible.

Link in Dutch: http://politiek.tpo.nl/2017/08/31/elf-jaar-knoet-jan-marijnissen/.

And they say I should be "protected" from working 50 hours a week even if I want to and receive what Trump calls a big, fat, beautiful paycheck (though that imaginary future paycheck wouldn't be that big under SP policies to be fair ).

[DavidB.]

I tuned out of all the VVD scandals because there were too many. I only know who was corrupt, not what they did. But yeah, completely agree that the SP deserves much more scrutiny. Everyone is still talking about so-called PVV mailbox pisser Eric Lucassen who never actually pissed in a mailbox.

In other news, an initiative against the new espionage law, which gives security services more powers to wiretap ordinary internet users and was supported by all parties except GL, D66, SP and PvdD in the Senate, has passed the first threshold for the organization of a referendum. The initiative now needs to receive more than 300,000 signatures between 4 September and 16 October. If that is the case, a referendum will be organized. Dutch link here.

It may also be the last referendum, as another leak was published: it was reported that VVD, CDA, D66 and CU had agreed on the abolishment of the referendum law; in turn, D66, the only proponents of the referendum law in theory (I doubt they still care in practice), will get another of its original "crown jewels": the elected mayor. Since the referendum law was intended to fill up a gap in our political system by giving citizens a way to participate between national elections, and given the fact that there are already quite some ways to participate in politics between local elections, this does not make much sense, and some renowned political scientists have already criticized the idea. But as Baudet said: people gave the wrong answer in a referendum once, so now the political elite wants to do away with the instrument altogether. Really sad.

[mvd10]

Yeah, I also disagree with abolishing the referendum law. The referendums aren't binding anyway. If voters really colossaly screw things up you could always ignore the result as a very last resort (and I doubt Dutch voters really would make an objectively terrible decision, the association agreement and EU constitution didn't matter in the grand scheme of things and both eventually still passed without much trouble anyway). Abolishing referendums is very bad PR-wise (except in the parts of Amsterdam where all pundits live, Josse de Voogd is at something with that lol) and sends a rather bad message.

[DavidB.]

In hindsight I should have voted for the Agreement and I'm secretly glad that we did not block its implementation, but in general I remain a big supporter of referendums and it is farcical to see how quickly some progressive parties that supported the instrument's initial introduction only a few years ago now want to do away with it.

De Voogd has become very woke in general when it comes to the left's culture wars and how they distract from real issues that hurt the working class. Progressives should listen to him more often.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

So this is not how politics look like? What is extraordinary in what that woman wrote?

[SunSt0rm]

To be honest, it wouldn't be suprisingly that the referendum law would be abolished again. VVD, CDA and CU have always been against it, and D66 and its base (one of the drivers of the law) aren't really happy with its law now. I also disagree with the abolition of it, but I think adjustments are needed like the threshold (which stimulated weird voting behavior) and and including international agreements.
The next of possibly last referendum about espionage law would be totally different from the last one.

[DavidB.]

Of course VVD, CDA and CU have always disliked the thing; the baffling thing is that parties like D66, GL and PvdA now basically oppose it (with varying degrees of openness/honesty about it). Everyone wants to fix the threshold, which is the result of a bad decision taken by the Senate. I would like the referendum initiative on the espionage law to succeed and for the referendum to take place, both because I oppose the law (won't help in combatting terrorism and organized crime but will further erode the last remnants of our privacy) and because it would be good to show people who have turned skeptic about the referendum after April 2016 how it can also be an instrument for the good.

[Zinneke]

So this is not how politics look like? What is extraordinary in what that woman wrote?

That Marijnissen is a shameful "workerist" and a bit of a dick, that is unextraordinary, yes. People bought into that image to an extent at the height of his success though...so he cultivated the good part of it in public and kept that other nasty side hidden.

But the reason why the media gloss over SPs internal corruption compared to VVD scandals is more intriguing ...I imagine it has something to do with Hollander-centrism, or the fact that SP is somewhat "unfrequentable" and, like PVV, are thus deemed irrelevant compared to a party of government. PVVers for example have an entire list of candidates with various crimes ranging from driving offences to spying for foreign governments (see link) but receive nowhere near the "dossier"-like attention VVD does for theirs, instead everyone focuses on Wilders' out-there statements.

http://www.welingelichtekringen.nl/politiek/543570/criminele-en-foute-pvv-toppers-de-tussenstand-van-1-februari-2016.html

[DavidB.]

PVV MPs with baggage received no attention for their scandals? Hahaha. Let's add that one to your own personal dossier of false statements here. The espionage allegation regarding Markuszower is exactly that, by the way: an allegation. There is no evidence for it and it has never been proven.

[MAINEiac4434]

So, will the Netherlands ever have a government?

[Zinneke]

PVV MPs with baggage received no attention for their scandals? Hahaha. Let's add that one to your own personal dossier of false statements here.

You are getting tiresome, but I will bite anyway.

PVVers for example have an entire list of candidates with various crimes ranging from driving offences to spying for foreign governments (see link) but receive nowhere near the "dossier"-like attention VVD does for theirs, instead everyone focuses on Wilders' out-there statements.

read whats in bold, then what I put in bold in your post.  

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I don't care whether he is spying for East Timor or the Martian Alliance, and I care even less that you voted for him. Its just the most severe alledged crime on the list. stop playing the victim.  

[DavidB.]

Still wrong. But maybe you forgot about it because most PVV scandals took place earlier already, whereas the VVD scandals have been more recent.

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I don't care whether he is spying for East Timor or the Martian Alliance, and I care even less that you voted for him. Its just the most severe alledged crime on the list. stop playing the victim.  

...? I'm just noting that you make it sound as if he was convicted, whereas there is no proof for this allegation whatsoever.

So, will the Netherlands ever have a government?

In October, probably.

[Zinneke]

Still wrong. But maybe you forgot about it because most attention for PVV scandals took place earlier already, whereas the VVD scandals have been more recent.

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I don't care whether he is spying for East Timor or the Martian Alliance, and I care even less that you voted for him. Its just the most severe alledged crime on the list. stop playing the victim.  

...? I'm just noting that you make it sound as if he was convicted, whereas there is no proof for this allegation whatsoever.

Fantastic, we've cleared up the technicality that we are dealing with: we are looking at parties and their alleged misdeeds, that include crimes and alleged crimes. And specifically, how they are dealt with the media. We can move on now, given that your original post about it was also based on...an allegation. And I'm sure your outrage with SP had nothing to do with your own politics, nor your leap to the defence of Markuszower, I mean it.

Back to topic.

[DavidB.]

It's not a mere technicality. You are posting a flawed list (also containing non-crimes such as "denial of the Armenian genocide") and presenting it as if these are all convictions: "PVVers [sic] (...) have an entire list of candidates with various crimes." Then you act all pissy when called out on the fact that some items on the list are mere allegations, which undermines your implicit claim that all items on the list are convictions.

I am not at all "outraged" over what happened in the SP. I am not surprised. And I don't even dislike the SP that much politically. I found it an interesting story, relevant to shed light on in this thread. Are you ever going to contribute anything here, or would you rather continue to be the annoying parasite of the thread, living off better posters' content and responding to it with falsehoods and non-info as you have been doing for years?

[America Needs R'hllor]

I'm not really updated on Dutch politics and haven't been reading this thread. Are negotiations STILL going on, such a long while after the elctions? Is it considered normal?

[Zinneke]

It's not a mere technicality. You are posting a flawed list (also containing non-crimes such as "denial of the Armenian genocide") and presenting it as if these are all convictions: "PVVers [sic] (...) have an entire list of candidates with various crimes." Then you act all pissy when called out on the fact that some items on the list are mere allegations, which undermines your implicit claim that all items on the list are convictions.

I am not at all "outraged" over what happened in the SP. I am not surprised. And I don't even dislike the SP that much politically. I found it an interesting story, relevant to shed light on in this thread. Are you ever going to contribute anything here, or would you rather continue to be the annoying parasite of the thread, living off better posters' content and responding to it with falsehoods and non-info as you have been doing for years?

Did you not understand I was giving you the benefit of the doubt so we could move on. OK I will spell it out for you : you are right, some are crimes, some are allegations. You posted allegations so I assumed we were discussing this subject, as well as crimes. You are right, David, not all of them are crimes. EDIT : oh and I still think Armenian Genocide denial is something worth reporting on extensively more.

You can remove my posts by hitting the ignore button in the top right btw.

[DavidB.]

I'm not really updated on Dutch politics and haven't been reading this thread? Are negotiations STILL going on, such a long while after the elctions? Is it considered normal?

Yes, negotiations are still going on -- they take longer than they usually do (we will probably break the record), but this is generally seen as a sign that the country is doing well and that having a new government simply is not too urgent a matter: otherwise things may have happened quicker, as they did in 2012. But it appears as if the negotiations are progressing reasonably well and that we may have a government next month. This formation is particularly complicated due to the unprecedented fragmentedness of the political landscape, with at least four parties being necessary to form a majority government; the fierce political competition and sharp differences between parties (much bigger than in the 80s and 90s, when parties agreed with each other more often and electoral volatility was lower, meaning that the "costs of governing" were lower) further complicate negotiations.

[mvd10]

Something else leaked:

The next Dutch government might implement a "social flat tax". Everyone would pay a 35% tax rate, but high-earners (I guess the threshold will be something like 70k) will pay an extra surcharge of 10-13% (the surcharge wouldn't take deductions into account). Currently there are 3 (officially 4) tax rates: 36% (first 20k), 41% (20k-65k) and 52% (65k+). Marginal tax rates are criminally high here, I really doubt there is any incentive to work more if you're a renter earning 25k and don't have any young children. The marginal income tax rate already is high (41%), but if you add all phase-outs for tax credits and means-tested benefits that rate gets really high. So I'd personally support the social "flat tax" (it also would include slashing deductions, so overall the tax code would be simplified which is really necessary).

Sylvester Eijffinger (professor at my university ) has strongly supported a simplified tax system with 1 rate and a surcharge for years. CDA and to a lesser extent the CU also have been pushing for this for years, since almost everyone would pay just the 35% rate (and even the ones who pay the surcharge only can deduct to the 35% rate) the tax code wouldn't distort choices made by families as much as it currently does. But the problem is that hard choices would have to be made if you want to reduce income tax rates by that much, so it's still very possible to push for tax reform fails in the end.

The employers' organizations and labour unions weren't able to reach an agreement on labour market reform or pension reform. The government can still go ahead and try, but the labour unions probably will come out against it in full force (especially since Rutte 3 probably won't include any left-wing parties after the GL fiasco, so by Dutch standards it will be a fairly right-wing government).

Hurricane Irma has been raging over the Dutch part of the island Sint Maarten. The government is closely monitoring the situation, it's currently unknown if any Dutch citizens died. I'm hearing concerning stories about people walking around and plundering ravaged shops in Sint Maarten with guns and machetes, but that hasn't been confirmed so I hope it's just a rumour. Communication with the island is nearly impossible.