Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: coalition agreement presented

[DavidB.]

I really don't know what the likeliest scenario would be right now. This could easily just be a tactical move for D66 in order to get as much as possible out of a deal with CU. It is important for them to show their voters that they are willing to make the other parties sweat. If after the weekend D66 still do not want to negotiate with CU, however, the ritual dance will first continue and a fruitless endeavor with the PvdA will probably have to take place before a minority government becomes a serious option.

I agree that the Diouf option would be the most sensible right now, but when Dutch ears hear the words minority government they hear instability -- and probably not completely without reason, as in the Dutch tradition, other than in Denmark or Sweden, parties outside the government really perceive themselves as opposition parties and are usually expected to do everything to take down the government. Tax reform will also be much more difficult with a minority. I still think it would be the most desirable option if the one with CU does not work out, but it has serious caveats too.

[DC Al Fine]

I really don't know what the likeliest scenario would be right now. This could easily just be a tactical move for D66 in order to get as much as possible out of a deal with CU. It is important for them to show their voters that they are willing to make the other parties sweat. If after the weekend D66 still do not want to negotiate with CU, however, the ritual dance will first continue and a fruitless endeavor with the PvdA will probably have to take place before a minority government becomes a serious option.

I agree that the Diouf option would be the most sensible right now, but when Dutch ears hear the words minority government they hear instability -- and probably not completely without reason, as in the Dutch tradition, other than in Denmark or Sweden, parties outside the government really perceive themselves as opposition parties and are usually expected to do everything to take down the government. Tax reform will also be much more difficult with a minority. I still think it would be the most desirable option if the one with CU does not work out, but it has serious caveats too.

Two questions:

1) What sort of tax reform is Rutte looking to pursue?

2) Assuming a VVD-CDA minority government is formed, how long would it take for the government to fall? Who would benefit/lose from new elections? Where would unsatisfied centre right voters go if both of the non-far right, non-Christian, rightist parties are in government?

[DavidB.]

It would not be a VVD-CDA minority governmernt, it would be a VVD-CDA-D66 government. These parties have 71 seats and only need one party with five or more seats for policies to pass. A VVD-CDA government, on the other hand, would always need more than one additional party. It is difficult to say how soon a VVD-CDA-D66 minority government would fall, but D66 would probably lose a sizeable number of voters to GL. Not impossible to see VVD and CDA pick up support from the PVV in this scenario.

Of course different parties have different views on what a new tax system should look like, but parties appear to agree that the tax system needs to become more simple, that taxes for working people should be cut, that taxes on activities that cause pollution should go up (households currently pay a disproportional share compared to industry, whereas industry causes much more pollution) and that the transition toward green energy should be incentivized. There may also be a property tax hike, although the VVD will do everything they can to prevent this.

[DavidB.]

D66 want VVD-CDA-D66-SP-PvdA. Insanity...

[Dutch Conservative]

D66 want VVD-CDA-D66-SP-PvdA. Insanity...

Why insanity? Why wouldn't we have a liberal-christian-socialist-democratic-conservative-progressive cabinet?

[DavidB.]

Haha Aaaand it's gone: SP have rejected Pechtold's idea and instead propose a CDA-D66-SP-PvdA minority government, without the VVD. Lodewijk Asscher has stated that he would be willing to negotiate on this, but Buma and Pechtold himself will not do this. So the ritual dance that will presumably leave us with VVD-CDA-D66 continues.

[DC Al Fine]

I get that this is unusual because you need four parties to form government, but how long do these negotiations usually take?

[mvd10]

90 days on average. It took 120+ days in 2010 and 2003. Ironically a CDA-VVD-D66 coalition was formed in 2003, but they had a majority in parliament.

[DavidB.]

CU leader Segers just changed his mind: no suicide assistance is no longer a "make or break" issue for him. Pressure on Pechtold will be immense now.

[DC Al Fine]

CU leader Segers just changed his mind: no suicide assistance is no longer a "make or break" issue for him. Pressure on Pechtold will be immense now.

How do CU supporters feel about that? From what little you told me, I would be pissed.

[mvd10]

Now we can see whether Pechtold actually cared about his new progressive crown jewels or whether he just used them as a reason to avoid a coalition that would hurt D66 electorally. I kinda understand Pechtold's worries about the stability of VVD-CDA-D66-CU. One dissident (most likely from D66 given the coalition) and you will have to rely on the SGP, which is much more conservative than the CU.

Anyway, I'm not sure whether this is a smart move from Segers. It probably will help him in government which has to be worth something, but at what cost? I don't know any regular CU voters but I can't imagine they would be very happy about this. My mother voted CU once or twice in the past, but she voted VVD this time around, so even though she opposes the new euthanasia law she doesn't really care about it anyway. But I imagine it's different for the grassroots.

[DavidB.]

How do CU supporters feel about that? From what little you told me, I would be pissed.

Most of them will be pissed too. It is difficult to see what CU can achieve in a coalition if this happens. CU voters that I know care deeply about this issue and will be disappointed. To be sure, a "compromise" would not mean that CU vote for such a proposal but rather that the issue would simply not be part of the coalition deal and that D66 get to find a majority for it outside the coalition. Of course, this is essentially still a form of capitulation and I did not expect it from Segers after his sabre-rattling on the issue during and after the campaign.

I don't believe Pechtold is truly worried about the stability of VVD-CDA-D66-CU. There are plenty of parties that are willing to provide occasional support on a case-by-case basis. He is rather worried about the electoral prospects of his party, with Jesse Klaver in the opposition being ready to attract a lot of D66 voters. I do think he needed the progressive crown jewels to show his base that D66 are able to achieve things in the government.

[mvd10]

How do CU supporters feel about that? From what little you told me, I would be pissed.

Most of them will be pissed too. It is difficult to see what CU can achieve in a coalition if this happens. CU voters that I know care deeply about this issue and will be disappointed. To be sure, a "compromise" would not mean that CU vote for such a proposal but rather that the issue would simply not be part of the coalition deal and that D66 get to find a majority for it outside the coalition. Of course, this is essentially still a form of capitulation and I did not expect it from Segers after his sabre-rattling on the issue during and after the campaign.

I don't believe Pechtold is truly worried about the stability of VVD-CDA-D66-CU. There are plenty of parties that are willing to provide occasional support on a case-by-case basis. He is rather worried about the electoral prospects of his party, with Jesse Klaver in the opposition being ready to attract a lot of D66 voters. I do think he needed the progressive crown jewels to show his base that D66 are able to achieve things in the government.

Segers always can demand tax cuts for single earners (single earners pay more income tax than dual earners for non-Dutch posters). I suppose most CU voters will forget this if they get their €€€. But I'm a VVD voter so I probably shouldn't assume everyone is as materialistic as we are .

[DavidB.]

Hahahaha! It's good that you add it yourself... But yes, that would definitely be something these parties could work with. I have always found this to be a strange issue. You would expect individualist parties like VVD and D66 to not give a toss about people's family structure and have them pay the same amount of taxes instead of penalizing single income earners. But perhaps I'm missing something here.

[mvd10]

Hahahaha! It's good that you add it yourself... But yes, that would definitely be something these parties could work with. I have always found this to be a strange issue. You would expect individualist parties like VVD and D66 to not give a toss about people's family structure and have them pay the same amount of taxes instead of penalizing single income earners. But perhaps I'm missing something here.

They want to stimulate labor participation I suppose. And most VVD and D66 voters are dual earners. It's the same with the mortgage interest deduction or the new law limiting foreign takeovers. The VVD generally is opposed to government intervention but when their base (be it homeowners or the VNO-NCW) gets hurt... We all know how that ends.

The VVD even included a €3 billion increase in the tax credit for dual earners with children in their manifesto (it's like a €3500 tax cut for people eligible for this tax credit). I'm pretty sure they only included it to get good grades from the CPB calculations since the CPB calculated that raising this tax credit would massively boost labor participation. The PvdA even raised this tax credit by €5 billion in their manifesto. These parties know how the CPB model works and they're basing their manifesto on it instead on what they actually believe. I've heard people in the VVD talk about making the manifesto "CPB-proof".

Any tax reform which would lead to a smaller gap between one-earners and two-earners probably would lead to less labor participation according to the CPB (they're probably right) and the CPB numbers are sacred to VVD and D66.

[DC Al Fine]

How do CU supporters feel about that? From what little you told me, I would be pissed.

Most of them will be pissed too. It is difficult to see what CU can achieve in a coalition if this happens. CU voters that I know care deeply about this issue and will be disappointed. To be sure, a "compromise" would not mean that CU vote for such a proposal but rather that the issue would simply not be part of the coalition deal and that D66 get to find a majority for it outside the coalition. Of course, this is essentially still a form of capitulation and I did not expect it from Segers after his sabre-rattling on the issue during and after the campaign.

I don't believe Pechtold is truly worried about the stability of VVD-CDA-D66-CU. There are plenty of parties that are willing to provide occasional support on a case-by-case basis. He is rather worried about the electoral prospects of his party, with Jesse Klaver in the opposition being ready to attract a lot of D66 voters. I do think he needed the progressive crown jewels to show his base that D66 are able to achieve things in the government.

Segers always can demand tax cuts for single earners (single earners pay more income tax than dual earners for non-Dutch posters). I suppose most CU voters will forget this if they get their €€€. But I'm a VVD voter so I probably shouldn't assume everyone is as materialistic as we are .

I'm not Dutch, so take my opinion with a grain of salt...

The culture of death is the number one reason I support traditional parties. Compromising on those issues would represent a fundamental betrayal, akin to the Socialist Party cutting taxes for millionaires. Sure family friendly taxes are nice, but they are a secondary issue. If  I were Dutch and CU were to continue to compromise like this, it would make me into a safe SGP voter for a very long time.

[mvd10]

How do CU supporters feel about that? From what little you told me, I would be pissed.

Most of them will be pissed too. It is difficult to see what CU can achieve in a coalition if this happens. CU voters that I know care deeply about this issue and will be disappointed. To be sure, a "compromise" would not mean that CU vote for such a proposal but rather that the issue would simply not be part of the coalition deal and that D66 get to find a majority for it outside the coalition. Of course, this is essentially still a form of capitulation and I did not expect it from Segers after his sabre-rattling on the issue during and after the campaign.

I don't believe Pechtold is truly worried about the stability of VVD-CDA-D66-CU. There are plenty of parties that are willing to provide occasional support on a case-by-case basis. He is rather worried about the electoral prospects of his party, with Jesse Klaver in the opposition being ready to attract a lot of D66 voters. I do think he needed the progressive crown jewels to show his base that D66 are able to achieve things in the government.

Segers always can demand tax cuts for single earners (single earners pay more income tax than dual earners for non-Dutch posters). I suppose most CU voters will forget this if they get their €€€. But I'm a VVD voter so I probably shouldn't assume everyone is as materialistic as we are .

I'm not Dutch, so take my opinion with a grain of salt...

The culture of death is the number one reason I support traditional parties. Compromising on those issues would represent a fundamental betrayal, akin to the Socialist Party cutting taxes for millionaires. Sure family friendly taxes are nice, but they are a secondary issue. If  I were Dutch and CU were to continue to compromise like this, it would make me into a safe SGP voter for a very long time.

In the (likely) compromise they wouldn't vote for it, but it would be a free vote (which pretty much guarantees it passes somewhere the next 4 years). But I understand your sentiment, so I really wonder why they're doing it. In the end D66 pretty much has to negotiate with CU since there aren't really much other options. Even a cabinet without the VVD would include CU. I still think Pechtold eventually would have swallowed his euthanasia law if he had gotten his way on education, climate change and tax reform. It was just a ritual dance to show his voters he was fighting for them.

But we're not there yet, there still are a lot of differences between CU and D66, and even CU and VVD/CDA.

[jeron]

How do CU supporters feel about that? From what little you told me, I would be pissed.

Most of them will be pissed too. It is difficult to see what CU can achieve in a coalition if this happens. CU voters that I know care deeply about this issue and will be disappointed. To be sure, a "compromise" would not mean that CU vote for such a proposal but rather that the issue would simply not be part of the coalition deal and that D66 get to find a majority for it outside the coalition. Of course, this is essentially still a form of capitulation and I did not expect it from Segers after his sabre-rattling on the issue during and after the campaign.

I don't believe Pechtold is truly worried about the stability of VVD-CDA-D66-CU. There are plenty of parties that are willing to provide occasional support on a case-by-case basis. He is rather worried about the electoral prospects of his party, with Jesse Klaver in the opposition being ready to attract a lot of D66 voters. I do think he needed the progressive crown jewels to show his base that D66 are able to achieve things in the government.

Segers always can demand tax cuts for single earners (single earners pay more income tax than dual earners for non-Dutch posters). I suppose most CU voters will forget this if they get their €€€. But I'm a VVD voter so I probably shouldn't assume everyone is as materialistic as we are .

I'm not Dutch, so take my opinion with a grain of salt...

The culture of death is the number one reason I support traditional parties. Compromising on those issues would represent a fundamental betrayal, akin to the Socialist Party cutting taxes for millionaires. Sure family friendly taxes are nice, but they are a secondary issue. If  I were Dutch and CU were to continue to compromise like this, it would make me into a safe SGP voter for a very long time.

I think that is true for many CU voters as well, but apparently Segers is now very keen to get to the negiotating table.

[jeron]

How do CU supporters feel about that? From what little you told me, I would be pissed.

Most of them will be pissed too. It is difficult to see what CU can achieve in a coalition if this happens. CU voters that I know care deeply about this issue and will be disappointed. To be sure, a "compromise" would not mean that CU vote for such a proposal but rather that the issue would simply not be part of the coalition deal and that D66 get to find a majority for it outside the coalition. Of course, this is essentially still a form of capitulation and I did not expect it from Segers after his sabre-rattling on the issue during and after the campaign.

I don't believe Pechtold is truly worried about the stability of VVD-CDA-D66-CU. There are plenty of parties that are willing to provide occasional support on a case-by-case basis. He is rather worried about the electoral prospects of his party, with Jesse Klaver in the opposition being ready to attract a lot of D66 voters. I do think he needed the progressive crown jewels to show his base that D66 are able to achieve things in the government.

Segers always can demand tax cuts for single earners (single earners pay more income tax than dual earners for non-Dutch posters). I suppose most CU voters will forget this if they get their €€€. But I'm a VVD voter so I probably shouldn't assume everyone is as materialistic as we are .

I'm not Dutch, so take my opinion with a grain of salt...

The culture of death is the number one reason I support traditional parties. Compromising on those issues would represent a fundamental betrayal, akin to the Socialist Party cutting taxes for millionaires. Sure family friendly taxes are nice, but they are a secondary issue. If  I were Dutch and CU were to continue to compromise like this, it would make me into a safe SGP voter for a very long time.

In the (likely) compromise they wouldn't vote for it, but it would be a free vote (which pretty much guarantees it passes somewhere the next 4 years). But I understand your sentiment, so I really wonder why they're doing it. In the end D66 pretty much has to negotiate with CU since there aren't really much other options. Even a cabinet without the VVD would include CU. I still think Pechtold eventually would have swallowed his euthanasia law if he had gotten his way on education, climate change and tax reform. It was just a ritual dance to show his voters he was fighting for them.

But we're not there yet, there still are a lot of differences between CU and D66, and even CU and VVD/CDA.

D66 has made quite clear in the past week that it has no interest in a VVD-CDA-D66-CU coalition. There will probably be negotiations for such a coalition starting monday next week, but they will either fail or come at a high cost for the other parties (and take very long).
Rutte praised Klaver lavishly at the VVD congress past weekend, so it wouldn't be at all surprised if GroenLinks returns to the negotiating table later on.

[DavidB.]

Rutte praised Klaver lavishly at the VVD congress past weekend, so it wouldn't be at all surprised if GroenLinks returns to the negotiating table later on.

I think Rutte rather did this to smoothen cooperation with Klaver and GL in the event that a VVD-CDA-D66 minority coalition is formed. I don't see a new VVD-CDA-D66-GL attempt happening, though of course you never know.

[DavidB.]

Meanwhile in LOL SP: remember the election for the position of chair last year? It was a race between the party elite's preferred candidate Ron Meyer and then MP Sharon Gesthuizen, who had declared her candidacy because she thought the party needed more internal democracy and was subsequently pushed out of the party. After the election, which was of course won by Meyer, the new board instated a commission to look into potential new ways to foster internal democracy. Currently, the boards of the local branches simply vote for their members. The internal commission looked into the option of introducing a "One man, one vote" system, but the board exerted so much pressure on the commission not to recommend this option that three out of four members of the commission today decided to resign.

The SP elite continue to shoot themselves in the foot by creating an environment in which being a bootlicker is more beneficial to your opportunities within the party than being critical and coming up with new ideas. Of course most parties function this way, but the SP is the most egregious case and the last two elections have proved that this model doesn't work for them.

[DavidB.]

The D66 and CU parliamentary groups have both given the green light to engage in negotiations with each other, VVD, and CDA. These coalition talks, led by informateur Schippers, have started this afternoon.

Some peil.nl polls:

- 41% regret that VVD-CDA-D66-GL formation attempt has failed, 54% do not regret this. These figures are 36/61 with VVD voters, 46/51 with CDA voters, 87/9 with D66 voters and 85/10 with GL voters.

- 34% think the failure of the talks should be blamed on GL (60% of VVD voters and 41% of CDA voters think so). 66% think this conclusion could have been drawn earlier. 48% think it is "laudable" that GL has been "principled" when it comes to migration.

- 39% of the electorate think GL should have been more willing to compromise on migration and "cash in" on green issues instead. 62% of VVD voters, 55% of CDA voters and 57% (!) of D66 voters agree with this statement. However, only 16% of GL voters do so, indicating that a large majority of the GL electorate think the party made the right choice.

- When given the options VVD/CDA/D66/CU, VVD/CDA/D66/PvdA and VVD/CDA/D66/SP, 32% prefer the first option, 26% the second and 23% the third. 19% don't know or have no opinion (and 52% of PVV voters). CDA and PVV voters prefer the option with CU by a large margin, VVD voters by a slim margin (47% CU, 44% PvdA, 3% SP); D66 (18/55/22), PvdA and GL voters prefer the option with the PvdA. It does seem as if the option with CU is not as popular with the D66 electorate as the options with PvdA or even SP, which is no surprise since we know D66's electorate are to the left of the party on economic issues.

- 54% think D66 should now be willing to negotiate with CU. Only 52% of D66 voters think so, which makes this very tricky for the party.

- 49% think the SP should be willing to govern with the VVD. Among SP voters, this percentage is even higher: 59%.

- 45% think the VVD should be willing to govern with the PVV. Only 38% of VVD voters think so, indicating that a majority support Rutte's stance.

- 44% think the CDA should be willing to govern with the PVV. 45% of CDA voters think so. It seems as if governing with the PVV is now more popular with CDA voters than with VVD voters. Reminds one of Balkenende being the only politician not demonizing Fortuyn before the 2002 election. Of course, much of the CDA electorate can be expected to be relatively sympathetic to the PVV and to this day I remain skeptical of the idea that the CDA lost so much in 2012 because of their cooperation with the PVV: the party membership (who are decidedly to the left of the party) did not like it, but most voters did not mind.

- 50% think the PvdA should be willing to govern with VVD, CDA and D66. 60% of PvdA voters in 2017 think so (which amounts to 5 people or so).

- Old habits die hard. If a majority government cannot be formed, 43% think an early election should take place. Only 29% think a minority government should be formed. 21% want a technocratic government to be formed. VVD, D66 and CU voters are most open to a minority government. PVV, SP and 50Plus voters want a new election, so there is some opportunism at play here too.

- In Amsterdam a female police officer decided to wear a headscarf after the highest police officer of Greater Amsterdam had stated this should be legal. 23% think female police officers should be allowed to wear headscarves, 74% oppose this. GL is the only party whose electorate (61/34) support this. PVV: 4/95. VVD: 17/83. CDA: 15/82. D66: 40/53. PvdA: 35/62. SP: 33/62. 50Plus: 13/81. CU: 23/75.

[ApatheticAustrian]

fascinating that cda voters are more disappointed than VVD voters.

and people who are for a PdvA participation want to kill it for good.

[DavidB.]

That ended quickly. Coalition talks with VVD, CDA, D66, CU terminated.

[SunSt0rm]

That ended quickly. Coalition talks with VVD, CDA, D66, CU terminated.

We are on our way to a minority government now, unless CDA & VVD are willing to talk with PVV now or one of the left parties is willing to make a u turn.