Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: coalition agreement presented

[Dutch Conservative]

Great news! Never a government with GL in it please!

I think the next possibility will be VVD-CDA-D66-CU. I do not think that will succeed, because of the differences between CU and D66.

Then: chances of a minority cabinet also very low. I do not believe there is much to be gained for CDA in such a coalition, because they will always be outvoted on liberal issues (PvdA/GL will never support the CDA-agenda). I just can't think of anything thats in it for CDA. Also because on issues to the right I dont expect the PVV to cooperate.

A coalition with the PVV is unthinkable, which remains troubling because 1.3 million voters aren't heard.

Conclusion: new elections Although I dont believe the outcome will be very different.

[DC Al Fine]

Great news! Never a government with GL in it please!

Given the nature of Dutch politics, wouldn't it be better for you if they were an impotent junior coalition partner? They would suffer massive losses if that were the case.

[mvd10]

Great news! Never a government with GL in it please!

Given the nature of Dutch politics, wouldn't it be better for you if they were an impotent junior coalition partner? They would suffer massive losses if that were the case.

That's the reason GL would make big demands. Sure, it would be tempting to see Flawless Beautiful Jesse (the hatred is strong) get squashed on election night 2021, but I'm not sure whether that's worth another round of income redistribution and a progressive immigration/refugee policy which will inevitably lead to another PVV surge.

[Dutch Conservative]

Great news! Never a government with GL in it please!

Given the nature of Dutch politics, wouldn't it be better for you if they were an impotent junior coalition partner? They would suffer massive losses if that were the case.

That's the reason GL would make big demands. Sure, it would be tempting to see Flawless Beautiful Jesse (the hatred is strong) get squashed on election night 2021, but I'm not sure whether that's worth another round of income redistribution and a progressive immigration/refugee policy which will inevitably lead to another PVV surge.

Hear, hear! To much at stake.

[Former President tack50]

Its very complicated now, one party has to commit suicide in order to get a coalition I suspect

And I think it will have to be D66. CU can simply stay out. If D66 stay out, an early election seems almost unavoidable.

Also yeah lol @ that.

Could Rutte just lead a VVD minority government (or VVD-CDA) and pick his allies on a law by law basis?

That would be an incredibly unstable government, but seems better than new elections.

Also, calling it now, if there are new elections VVD will increase quite a bit.

[Zinneke]

Its very complicated now, one party has to commit suicide in order to get a coalition I suspect

And I think it will have to be D66. CU can simply stay out. If D66 stay out, an early election seems almost unavoidable.

Also yeah lol @ that.

Could Rutte just lead a VVD minority government (or VVD-CDA) and pick his allies on a law by law basis?

He will probably end up doing VVD-CDA-D66 minority government. I don't think calling new elections is what he wants.

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Well, another corruption scandal appears to have not harmed them, but they aren't attracting anybody to their left anytime soon. Maybe a CDA tactical vote like in 2012.

For me, the big "winners" would be the non-traditionals, especially if GL maintain their momentum or SP change their leadership to someone even resembling Marijnissen 2006. Then you will have a campaign from the traditional parties that could touch upon what Samsom was saying in 2012: actually serving out a term in government with responsibility rather than instability and collapse which is all the NL had known from Fortuyn's "revolution" to Rutte II. I think in that scenario and the current climate the populists win the argument.

David of anderen nederlanders, bestaat de NKO niet meer? heb hun site gekeken en ze hebben niks sinds 2006 gepubliceerd. Ik zoek een studie net zoals dit van de KUL voor Belgie 2014:
https://soc.kuleuven.be/ceso/ispo/downloads/Het%20profiel%20van%20de%20Vlaamse%20kiezers%20in%202014.pdf

[ApatheticAustrian]

are there btw recent dutch polls, since the election? (those usually incease/"enforce" the election results)

[mvd10]

Its very complicated now, one party has to commit suicide in order to get a coalition I suspect

And I think it will have to be D66. CU can simply stay out. If D66 stay out, an early election seems almost unavoidable.

Also yeah lol @ that.

Could Rutte just lead a VVD minority government (or VVD-CDA) and pick his allies on a law by law basis?

He will probably end up doing VVD-CDA-D66 minority government. I don't think calling new elections is what he wants.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Well, another corruption scandal appears to have not harmed them, but they aren't attracting anybody to their left anytime soon. Maybe a CDA tactical vote like in 2012.

For me, the big "winners" would be the non-traditionals, especially if GL maintain their momentum or SP change their leadership to someone even resembling Marijnissen 2006. Then you will have a campaign from the traditional parties that could touch upon what Samsom was saying in 2012: actually serving out a term in government with responsibility rather than instability and collapse which is all the NL had known from Fortuyn's "revolution" to Rutte II. I think in that scenario and the current climate the populists win the argument.

David of anderen nederlanders, bestaat de NKO niet meer? heb hun site gekeken en ze hebben niks sinds 2006 gepubliceerd. Ik zoek een studie net zoals dit van de KUL voor Belgie 2014:
https://soc.kuleuven.be/ceso/ispo/downloads/Het%20profiel%20van%20de%20Vlaamse%20kiezers%20in%202014.pdf

Volgens mij was er in 2012 wel een maar ik heb in 2017 nog niets gevonden

are there btw recent dutch polls, since the election? (those usually incease/"enforce" the election results)

Peil.nl does a weekly poll and almost nothing changed. I'm not sure about the other pollsters.

EenVandaag did a poll on the formation failure. 39% dissapointed, 48% relieved. 59% wants CU as fourth partner, but 53% also would accept PvdA. PvdA voters (most of them would still vote PvdA if they started WW3 methinks) want to govern 49-44. 58% of SP voters want their party to consider a coalition with the VVD lol.

[SunSt0rm]

New elections wont change the formation.  A possible majority of VVD-CDA-D66 in the parliament does not have a majority in the senate. A new government need to be consisted of at least four parties because of the current senate. Moreover, I think new election will probably not increase the seats of established parties as VVD & D66 already had a good result, whereas PVV, SP and 50+ get a dissapointed result.

The only scenario I might see it benefiting is that the PvdA will recover again and have confidence to govern again. Aboutaleb can do that, but chances are very small with Asscher as leader.

[DavidB.]

New elections won't change anything, the Spain/Croatia scenario. But I hope negotiations with the CU will lead to a stable government.

@Rogier: Fortunately, the NKO still exists; it just takes some time, up to a year or even more, to come up with all the data for an election. For all NKO studies until (and including) 2012, see http://www.dpes.nl/nl/.

are there btw recent dutch polls, since the election? (those usually incease/"enforce" the election results)

Only peil.nl polls; minor changes. VVD -1, CDA -1, PVV -1, SP -1, 50Plus +1, D66 +1, FvD +2.

[DavidB.]

Pechtold does not want to negotiate with CU (yet): D66 are not willing to sacrifice the assisted suicide initiative. Instead, Pechtold wants SP or PvdA to join VVD, CDA and D66. Chances that this will happen are very slim: the SP rule out government cooperation with the VVD whereas the PvdA are obviously not eager to enter the government with three right-wing parties.

[Zinneke]

@Rogier: Fortunately, the NKO still exists; it just takes some time, up to a year or even more, to come up with all the data for an election. For all NKO studies until (and including) 2012, see http://www.dpes.nl/nl/

Hmmm...for some reason there is no downloadable file for me on their pages though? Are you getting that or do I need to switch to a Dutch VPN?

Also, can you explain D66's stance? Is assisted suicide really a vote winner or something really urgent? It seems strange that they would hold up on that.

[SunSt0rm]

@Rogier: Fortunately, the NKO still exists; it just takes some time, up to a year or even more, to come up with all the data for an election. For all NKO studies until (and including) 2012, see http://www.dpes.nl/nl/

Hmmm...for some reason there is no downloadable file for me on their pages though? Are you getting that or do I need to switch to a Dutch VPN?

Also, can you explain D66's stance? Is assisted suicide really a vote winner or something really urgent? It seems strange that they would hold up on that.

It became a hot issue during the campaign.  But there are more social isses which D66 sees as important such as legalisation of softdrugs and actieve donor system etc. All of these progressive issues will certainly be blocked in a conservative with the CU, so there is nothing to win when D66 join such a coalition. D66 just doesn't want to support a christian conservative cabinet as they would lose many progressive voters to PvdA and GL.

[jeron]

@Rogier: Fortunately, the NKO still exists; it just takes some time, up to a year or even more, to come up with all the data for an election. For all NKO studies until (and including) 2012, see http://www.dpes.nl/nl/

Hmmm...for some reason there is no downloadable file for me on their pages though? Are you getting that or do I need to switch to a Dutch VPN?

Also, can you explain D66's stance? Is assisted suicide really a vote winner or something really urgent? It seems strange that they would hold up on that.

It became a hot issue during the campaign.  But there are more social isses which D66 sees as important such as legalisation of softdrugs and actieve donor system etc. All of these progressive issues will certainly be blocked in a conservative with the CU, so there is nothing to win when D66 join such a coalition. D66 just doesn't want to support a christian conservative cabinet as they would lose many progressive voters to PvdA and GL.

It's not just about the social issues of course. The previous time D66 entered a coalition with VVD and CDA it was reduced to zero seats in the polls and eventually ended up with 3 seats partly thanks to the Turkish vote. D66 wants to prevent that from happening again at all cost.

[mvd10]

D66 basically tried to outflank the VVD on economics for the past couple of years. It worked if you look at the election results, but a lot of D66 members aren't really happy about Pechtold's more economically liberal course. There are movements inside D66 which want D66 to become more left-wing. Joining a coalition with VVD, CDA and CU (they're not really left-wing on economics anymore) while Jesse Klaver is in the opposition isn't a great electoral strategy. D66 would get it's way on a lot of economic issues, but they're fairly out of touch with their supporters on economic issues anyway and they would make absolutely zero progress on social issues (and the base completely agrees with D66 on social issues).

[DavidB.]

Informateur Schippers did not have any talks with party leaders today: instead, they had a "moment for self-reflection." D66 currently refuse to negotiate with the CU, the SP continue to refuse negotiating with the VVD and the PvdA continue to refuse to negotiate with anybody. Buma wants VVD-CDA-D66-SP to give it a try (even though he would obviously prefer CU), and this does seem like a less problematic option than one with GL as long as its leader has a Messiah complex, but according to Roemer, negotiating with the VVD "was a no, is a no and will remain a no." Most expect Pechtold to come around soon.

@Rogier: I will answer you later!

[DC Al Fine]

@Rogier: Fortunately, the NKO still exists; it just takes some time, up to a year or even more, to come up with all the data for an election. For all NKO studies until (and including) 2012, see http://www.dpes.nl/nl/

Hmmm...for some reason there is no downloadable file for me on their pages though? Are you getting that or do I need to switch to a Dutch VPN?

Also, can you explain D66's stance? Is assisted suicide really a vote winner or something really urgent? It seems strange that they would hold up on that.

It became a hot issue during the campaign.  But there are more social isses which D66 sees as important such as legalisation of softdrugs and actieve donor system etc. All of these progressive issues will certainly be blocked in a conservative with the CU, so there is nothing to win when D66 join such a coalition. D66 just doesn't want to support a christian conservative cabinet as they would lose many progressive voters to PvdA and GL.

What exactly is the euthanasia initiative?

[RodPresident]

Informateur Schippers did not have any talks with party leaders today: instead, they had a "moment for self-reflection." D66 currently refuse to negotiate with the CU, the SP continue to refuse negotiating with the VVD and the PvdA continue to refuse to negotiate with anybody. Buma wants VVD-CDA-D66-SP to give it a try (even though he would obviously prefer CU), and this does seem like a less problematic option than one with GL as long as its leader has a Messiah complex, but according to Roemer, negotiating with the VVD "was a no, is a no and will remain a no." Most expect Pechtold to come around soon.

@Rogier: I will answer you later!

Would a CDA-GL-D66-SP viable with PVdD-CU, PvDA+plus one.

[Kamala]

Informateur Schippers did not have any talks with party leaders today: instead, they had a "moment for self-reflection." D66 currently refuse to negotiate with the CU, the SP continue to refuse negotiating with the VVD and the PvdA continue to refuse to negotiate with anybody. Buma wants VVD-CDA-D66-SP to give it a try (even though he would obviously prefer CU), and this does seem like a less problematic option than one with GL as long as its leader has a Messiah complex, but according to Roemer, negotiating with the VVD "was a no, is a no and will remain a no." Most expect Pechtold to come around soon.

@Rogier: I will answer you later!

Would a CDA-GL-D66-SP viable with PVdD-CU, PvDA+plus one.

I don't think PvdD is at all interested in governing.

[DavidB.]

What exactly is the euthanasia initiative?

It is currently available for people who are suffering from a terminal illness, but D66 want to make it available for anybody over 75 that just does not feel like living anymore (and are pretty clear about the fact that eventually they want to make it available for people under 75 too). VVD, PvdA, GL want this too, but D66 are most outspoken about it.

Would a CDA-GL-D66-SP viable with PVdD-CU, PvDA+plus one.

No. CDA should absolutely be seen as a right-wing party nowadays and have no interest in governing with this many left-wing parties. Keep in mind that the CDA were the most vigorous opponent of many of GL's demands in the negotiations on GreenRight.

Hmmm...for some reason there is no downloadable file for me on their pages though? Are you getting that or do I need to switch to a Dutch VPN?

Also, can you explain D66's stance? Is assisted suicide really a vote winner or something really urgent? It seems strange that they would hold up on that.

You're right. This should be their website but I can't find anything for 2010 and 2012. Will take a look this weekend if I can find them for you, but I don't know if I will find them... would have expected them here.

D66's stance is mainly symbolic. Their new progressive crown jewels are the issues that are closest to their heart and if they have to compromise on environmental, international and migration issues in a coalition with VVD and CDA they would at least like to "win" these points, which are very tangible and important to their legacy. With CU this will be impossible.

[DavidB.]

@Rogier: You can download the NKO 2012 files here and the NKO 2010 files here. You have to create an account first, but it appears that you can do this for free.

[Zinneke]

@Rogier: You can download the NKO 2012 files here and the NKO 2010 files here. You have to create an account first, but it appears that you can do this for free.

thanks!

[mvd10]

Prominent D66 member and probable next minister of economic affairs Kajsa Ollongren has basically ruled out VVD-CDA-D66-CU. She said she can't see it happening because of fundamental differences. Because apparently VVD and SP (D66 wants VVD-CDA-D66-PvdA/SP) don't have fundamental differences lol.

[Diouf]

So we are more or less at certain minority government now, right? Even if VVD and CDA prefer majority government, stable leadership blah blah, it seems like a waste of time to pursue further majority government negotiations. Their job now should be to get the broadest possible support for such a minority government.

[mvd10]

So we are more or less at certain minority government now, right? Even if VVD and CDA prefer majority government, stable leadership blah blah, it seems like a waste of time to pursue further majority government negotiations. Their job now should be to get the broadest possible support for such a minority government.

I'm not really sure. In the end someone (most likely Pechtold imo) will bite the bullet and start new negotiations. It's unsure whether those negotiations will be succesful, but right now I still think a majority government is more likely.