Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: coalition agreement presented

[DavidB.]

The Hague: 23.4% at 12. 2012: 19.3%. If this is the pattern outside big cities too, this may be going into the high 70s.

I agree, although I do think there is a good chance the PVV will end up as largest party. Wich parties usually profit from a higher turnout? I know the christian parties profit from a lower turnout.

High turnout is usually good for PVV, SP and 50Plus, and it could be good for DENK too. However, no certainty here, of course.

[Tender Branson]

Rotterdam has almost 30% turnout already and is still having some 24.000 votes per hour, with peak voting only starting after 4pm.

I currently expect some 340-360.000 votes there, which would be 74-79% turnout, up from 62.5% in 2012.

Cool.

[SunSt0rm]

The Hague: 23.4% at 12. 2012: 19.3%. If this is the pattern outside big cities too, this may be going into the high 70s.

I agree, although I do think there is a good chance the PVV will end up as largest party. Wich parties usually profit from a higher turnout? I know the christian parties profit from a lower turnout.

High turnout is usually good for PVV, SP and 50Plus, and it could be good for DENK too. However, no certainty here, of course.

It could also benefit GL and to a lesser extent D66, who will attract the youth vote that dont vote very often. Higher turnout will disadvantageous CDa, CU and SGP

[Tender Branson]

I'm updating my turnout prediction for Holland to 77.3% (+2.7%)

[Dutch Conservative]

Rotterdam has almost 30% turnout already and is still having some 24.000 votes per hour, with peak voting only starting after 4pm.

I currently expect some 340-360.000 votes there, which would be 74-79% turnout, up from 62.5% in 2012.

Cool.

Excellent news!

[windjammer]

I don't think anyone can really make any prediction based on turnout. Remember High turnout in dem areas for the pres election?

[Tender Branson]

I don't think anyone can really make any prediction based on turnout. Remember High turnout in dem areas for the pres election?

Yeah, hard to tell ...

Higher turnout here in Austria often benefits different parties, like in the Vienna state election in 2015 (which saw a huge turnout increase). SPÖ and FPÖ were tied in the polls, but the high turnout led to the SPÖ defeating the FPÖ by about 8% in the end.

In the presidential election, Hofer and VdB did both really well in high-turnout areas. But in the 2nd runoff, VdB benefitted more from the higher turnout. Some Hofer-voters stayed home and this was especially obvious in Hofer-strongholds from the May runoff.

[DavidB.]

Rotterdam has almost 30% turnout already and is still having some 24.000 votes per hour, with peak voting only starting after 4pm.

I currently expect some 340-360.000 votes there, which would be 74-79% turnout, up from 62.5% in 2012.

Cool.

If that's the case turnout would be over 80% nationally.

[Tender Branson]

Rotterdam has almost 30% turnout already and is still having some 24.000 votes per hour, with peak voting only starting after 4pm.

I currently expect some 340-360.000 votes there, which would be 74-79% turnout, up from 62.5% in 2012.

Cool.

If that's the case turnout would be over 80% nationally.

Well, this could be Rotterdam-specific.

We need to wait if there's also a strong increase in more suburban or rural cities.

[DavidB.]

Yeah, I mean if that's the pattern nationwide.

[Tender Branson]

Take a look at this chart here:

http://www.rotterdam.nl/Clusters/BSD/Documenten%202017/Tabelopkomstcijfers_eerdere%20verkiezingen.pdf

Voting picks up significanly after 4pm to around 8pm. We need to wait and see if peak voting remains strong today after 4pm.

I will keep monitoring the real-time Rotterdam and Utrecht numbers and make updated predictions.

[DavidB.]

28% turnout in notorious low-turnout municipality Tilburg (dunno what time, I assume 12 or 13), 23.8% same time in 2012.

[DavidB.]

Amsterdam 25.8% at 1 PM, 14.1% in 2012. WOW.

[Dutch Conservative]

In Wijk bij Duurstede (prov. Utrecht) the turnout was 28,27% at noon. In 2012: 23,18%, 2010: 24,04%. Looks like a significant increase.

[Polkergeist]

Does the Dutch exit poll have a good history of accuracy?

I read it has a huge sample size, 38,000.

Is it face to face or sample ballot?

[SunSt0rm]

Amsterdam 25.8% at 1 PM, 14.1% in 2012. WOW.

Wow, turnout in the cities is HUGE. This could benefit GL & D66

[SunSt0rm]

Does the Dutch exit poll have a good history of accuracy?

I read it has a huge sample size, 38,000.

Is it face to face or sample ballot?

Quite good, it may underestimate the PVV a bit.

[Dutch Conservative]

Here is some information about the exit poll done by Ipsos.

http://www.ipsos-nederland.nl/uploads/documenten/De_exitpoll_update_ENG_v1.0.pdf

It was quite accurate in the past, tends to underestimate the right a bit I think.

[Beezer]

One last attempt at a gift to the PVV by Erdogan?

[SunSt0rm]

Turnout 13:45 33% according to Ipsos, in 2012 it was only 27%

[DavidB.]

The Netherlands, 2017.

[Polkergeist]

Here is some information about the exit poll done by Ipsos.

http://www.ipsos-nederland.nl/uploads/documenten/De_exitpoll_update_ENG_v1.0.pdf

It was quite accurate in the past, tends to underestimate the right a bit I think.

Thank you!

[SunSt0rm]

Turnout in Eindhoven at 27.16%, in 2010 it was 25.68%. Maybe, the south is not turning up like the rest of the country?

[SunSt0rm]

FWIW:

The AD asked people in Heemskerk to also cast a ballot for them. The VVD currently is at 26% there. Heemskerk can be considered the bellwether of the Netherlands. But you can still vote until 21:00 so it probably isn't worth anything.

Update of the most 'average' town, its still too early as most votes still have to be casted and different voters turn out at different times

VVD: 23,4%
D66: 13,8%
CDA: 13,0%
PVV: 11,9%
SP: 9,9%
PvdA: 8,8%
GroenLinks: 6,1%
50Plus: 4,4%
Christenunie: 3,3%
Partij voor de Dieren: 1,9%
Forum voor Democratie: 1,7%
DENK: 1,1%
Piratenpartij: 0,6%
SGP: 0,3%

[DavidB.]

FWIW:

The AD asked people in Heemskerk to also cast a ballot for them. The VVD currently is at 26% there. Heemskerk can be considered the bellwether of the Netherlands. But you can still vote until 21:00 so it probably isn't worth anything.

This was based on 154 votes or so. I'd... be very cautious in drawing any conclusions (of course, so are you), and think it is irresponsible for AD to be spreading potential fake news like this. Exit polls should also not be published before polls close.