Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: coalition agreement presented

[DavidB.]

I wonder how being in government will affect D66 in the next elections (if they are in government, but I'm fairly sure D66 will be in the next government). Being in government seems to hurt them even more that other parties. Especially if it's a VVD-CDA-D66-CU-SGP coalition I can see D66 getting demolished in 2021.

I think it may be different this time around, with D66 basically having dropped the democratic reform stuff and holding a more or less established position in the Dutch party system as the cosmopolitan, socially liberal "anti-PVV". Voters will hardly be surprised with what they get if D66 enter the government. Say what you will about Pechtold, but he is pretty honest for a politician, and his electorate is more likely to accept "tough compromises." It may also help that many of the alternatives to D66 will be in government too, though some voters will inevitably flock toward GL and PvdA if these parties will not be in government.

But it remains to be seen how large D66 will be in this election in the first place. They could win slightly over 20 seats, but they could also win barely more than they won in 2012 if Jesse Klaver gains momentum. Everything between 14 and 21 seats seems possible.

[SunSt0rm]

I wonder how being in government will affect D66 in the next elections (if they are in government, but I'm fairly sure D66 will be in the next government). Being in government seems to hurt them even more that other parties. Especially if it's a VVD-CDA-D66-CU-SGP coalition I can see D66 getting demolished in 2021.

D66 is very eager to govern this time and its the last opportunity for Pechtold who already states he will resign if D66 wont be part of the next government. Moreover, D66 is needed for almost any coalition. I think it depends on the coalition. Such a coalition, you mention here, wont do well for D66 and it would probably demand a lot of its point if it steps in such a coalition (this coalition wont have a majority now as well). However, I suspect that D66 will try to cover its left wing and have PvdA and/or GL as well. In a coalition like purple where both wings are covered, D66 will do well as a compromise will be moreorless the same as programme of D66 (like the current government). The same applies that D66 wants to cover its right wing as well when a centre-left government is proposed. Thankfully, CDA closed the door to a centre-left coalition with the SP.

[SunSt0rm]

50+ has made a joke of itself and has proposed a plan to lower the retirement age back to 65 by lowering the payments. I expect the inevitable decline of 50+ will come now, the PVV will probably profit from it.

[DavidB.]

Parliament will vote on the Association Agreement in ten minutes. A majority of VVD, PvdA, D66 and GroenLinks will vote for it. This will be painful for Rutte in the debates.

[Tender Branson]

Apparently, Wilders has cancelled all of his planned public appearances.

A member of his personal security team (of Moroccan origin, lol) apparently tried to kill him or something.

[mvd10]

Apparently, Wilders has cancelled all of his planned public appearances.

A member of his personal security team (of Moroccan origin, lol) apparently tried to kill him or something.

He ''just'' leaked information to Moroccan gangs (well he is accused of leaking so idk if it's true). We don't know if it was specifically about Wilders or about his other clients.

[freek]

Apparently, Wilders has cancelled all of his planned public appearances.

A member of his personal security team (of Moroccan origin, lol) apparently tried to kill him or something.

Not really. He is accused of corruption. Moroccan gangsters were apparently in possession of confidential police information that was accessed by this police man. It is not clear what kind of information, but probably related to this gang, not to Wilders.

[Angel of Death]

In this time of global populist fervor, the most underplayed story of this election has to be the quite lousy performance of the SP and that, despite the imminent collapse of the PvdA. It's hard to pin this entirely on the seemingly uncharismatic Roemer.

[DL]

Is the 50+ party generally seen as leftwing or rightwing?

[Zinneke]

Is the 50+ party generally seen as leftwing or rightwing?

Neither. Its a boomer party with boomer values.
For its worth, some members high up on their list are ex-PvdA, CDA, and FNV (trade unions), and a banker. I think they've long abandoned their ideologies though.

You'll have to ask DavidB about their voters because I have (thankfully) never met any.

[DavidB.]

Over 70% of their support in the West probably comes from PVV and SP (in that order); outside the West there will also be more disillusioned CDA, PvdA and VVD voters (in that order) flocking to 50Plus. I only met one 50Plus voter, the father of a friend of mine, who is still an SP member and used to be a lifelong SP voter. Many 50Plus voters appear to have the same economic views as the SP and the same views on immigration/Muslims/national identity as the PVV, but simply prioritize their own pensions when voting. There are also a lot of people who just don't know who to vote for, realize that they are older than 50, don't know anything about the party's other plans (and don't feel like reading up) and decide to vote for them.

As for the 50Plus candidates, yeah, as Rogier said, many of them have a background in an establishment party or a trade union and will probably be more "cosmopolitan" at heart than their anti-immigrant voters -- but it is not as if it matters to these candidates. They don't really care about anything except for more money for the elderly. I'd say 50Plus are neither left-wing nor right-wing, just a special interest party.

[SunSt0rm]

In this time of global populist fervor, the most underplayed story of this election has to be the quite lousy performance of the SP and that, despite the imminent collapse of the PvdA. It's hard to pin this entirely on the seemingly uncharismatic Roemer.

Its remarkable indeed. Its mainly the fault of Roemer who is seen as a nice but incompetent leader. In every debate, he fails and forgets the numbers. Moreover, its pro-immigration stance is hurting as well, losing many voters to the PVV

[DavidB.]

In this time of global populist fervor, the most underplayed story of this election has to be the quite lousy performance of the SP and that, despite the imminent collapse of the PvdA. It's hard to pin this entirely on the seemingly uncharismatic Roemer.

Yes, it is truly incredible that the SP may lose one third of their seats in an election in which the PvdA has been in an austere, "reformist" government with the VVD for over four years and will collapse because of that. I do think it is mainly Roemer's fault, who could not be taken seriously by most people anymore after his terrible debate performances and subsequent collapse in the polls in 2012. However, the underlying issue, of course, is that the extremely hierarchic SP party structure does not favor those who are charismatic or show leadership but rather those who are obedient. Potential leaders are seen as threats by their superiors and won't get into parliament in the first place. Of course, this only became a problem when Marijnissen, quite the charismatic guy himself, resigned. In its current incarnation, the SP does not appeal to anybody who is not already "locked in". If, then, GroenLinks picks a hot young leader, makes a turn to the left and ends up being the chief alternative to the PvdA for disillusioned voters on the left, it is pretty logical that both PvdA and SP end up losing.

[Zinneke]

So I listened to the radio debate. Klaver stole the headlines by asking Asscher if he would renounce working with the VVD again and turn towards the left parties instead. Asscher gave a condition for working the GL : tougher stance on immigration and integration. He then called Klaver arrogant. Later, when asked who he'd prefer working with, Klaver said the SP. Others :

SP : GL
PvdA : GL
SGP : CDA or CU
CU : non-answer
50+ : SP ("only party that makes 65 65 again")
CDA : non-answer. I think he quoted the Bible to remind us he is Christian.
VVD : D66 and CDA (expected)
D66 : "even with the SP" (D66 in one phrase right there)



Otherwise it was a very awkward first debate. Van der Staaij is probably the one who came out best (made Rutte squirm on defense spending despite both agreeing on the essence) but his ceiling is still limited. Who knows, maybe more intellectual Wilder supporters might flock to him.

[Zinneke]

https://www.noties.nl/v/get.php?a=peil.nl&s=weekpoll&f=2017-02-26.pdf

New polls. 50+ falling towards PVV. FvD and VNL rising from PVV. The former FvD in particular are trying Wilders-lite style tactics, attracting headlines for weird stunts.  I think a lot of people like me would much prefer them than PVV though, so they may be just be being pushed by ''The Elite''(despite FvD attacks on the NPO) as a way to split the PVV.

(can someone post the image?)

[freek]

(can someone post the image?)

[SunSt0rm]

FvD is a bigger threat to the establishment than the PVV in the long run if they manage to get a seat this election. When Wilders leaves politics, the party will be gone.

Tonight, the first tv debate will be held. Roemer, Klaver, Asscher, Pechtold and Buma will be present. Rutte and Wilders will not attend the debate as more than 4 parties were inivited to. Most important thing to watch: battle of the left parties and Buma who will present himself as VVD-light. This is going to be the most important debate for these outsiders to get momentum.

[ApatheticAustrian]

just googled the FvD, remembered i have read about mister baudet somewhere before, checked some of his stances....and once again stumbled over a russia apologist.

why isn't there a proud, european right-wing party, which is at the same time against radical islam and russia's neo-imperialism? it baffles me.

[Zinneke]

why isn't there a proud, european right-wing party, which is at the same time against radical islam and russia's neo-imperialism? it baffles me.

The PVV are pro-Atlanticist/anti-Kremlin --

I'm not sure those two stances are compatible anymore.
Wilders just prefers to travel to the US and have his policies dictated to him there.

[Zinneke]

why isn't there a proud, european right-wing party, which is at the same time against radical islam and russia's neo-imperialism? it baffles me.

The PVV are pro-Atlanticist/anti-Kremlin -- and yes, FVD are definitely too Kremlin-friendly in my opinion.

Will be watching the debate tonight (if RTL broadcast it online, that is).

http://www.rtlnieuws.nl/nederland/politiek/livestream-2100-uur-rtl-rode-hoed-debat

[DavidB.]

Thanks for the link. The idea that Wilders has "his policies dictated to him" is nonsense, though -- completely unsubstantiated. As I said, people donate to his party because they like his views. The PVV's continued insistence on a ban on ritual slaughter may be the best proof that the party isn't willing to budge for its potential donors (I sure wish it were different on this issue...).

[Zinneke]

Thanks for the link. The idea that Wilders has "his policies dictated to him" is nonsense, though -- completely unsubstantiated. As I said, people donate to his party because they like his views. The PVV's continued insistence on a ban on ritual slaughter may be the best proof that the party isn't willing to budge for its potential donors (I sure wish it were different on this issue...).

Hey, remember when Wilders, much like Farage, had a much broader focus on policy issues rather than STOP ISLAM AAAAAH and an A4 sheet for a manifesto, as he actually tried to build a serious RWPP a la Fortuyn. Remember when he came back from the US with a bigger bank account after meeting the neo-cons? Put two and two together...If it was a left-wing populist and the USSR 30 years ago we would all know how your type would react.

Anyway, lets watch the debate,

[DavidB.]

Yeah, this sort of conspirational stuff doesn't fly with me. There is also a difference between the USSR and the U.S., and between private donors and a foreign government.

Klaver is now attacking Pechtold on healthcare. Smart. Pechtold is to the right of his electorate, an important weak spot which Klaver can exploit.

[Zinneke]

Yeah, this sort of conspirational stuff doesn't fly with me. There is also a difference between the USSR and the U.S., and between private donors and a foreign government.

The point of sovereignty and national security is ensuring that foreign actors do not determine your policy through force or through covert action. Clearly whether the foreign actor is a government or not is irrelevant. Ideologies like Marxism and whatever yours will be called in 20 years time (alt-right I don't know) are just vehicles for actors to take over our countries.

Before the eurosceptics start shouting, The EU is another matter. The system was also designed for small countries like ours to not get dominated on a chessboard with France and Germany, and essentially have to pick sides. Furthermore, its legal character is still that of a trading block with security cooperation methods that are entirely a la carte, and the power still lies with the elected national governments.

The Euro is also another matter, I'm more on the eurosceptic side with the Euro, because I believe currency should be a policy instrument and not determined by technocrats with institutional liberalism who haven't successfully modeled money in the economy yet. But let's not also pretend our currencies were somehow manageable and independent in the pre-Euro era.

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Yup, and he just called Roemer Asscher. He looks uncomfortable though.

[mvd10]

Klaver doesn't completely rule out cooperation with the VVD, but he says the chance they will come to an agreement is very small. The problem is that VVD-CDA-D66-CU-SGP probably won't have a majority, so VVD-CDA-D66 will need another (leftist) party.

Maybe purple plus (VVD-GL-D66-PvdA) becomes an option if GroenLinks wins a lot of seats, but that would be suicide for the VVD. It might be the only way for GroenLinks and PvdA to agree to join a Rutte cabinet though. If GL is in the cabinet while the PvdA isn't GL would lose a lot of seats to the PvdA (and vice versa), but they might enter a coalition with the VVD together. It would be hilarious to see the CDA locked out of government again. But even though I hate Buma I would much rather have a cabinet with the CDA than a left-liberal coalition.