Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: coalition agreement presented

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well... er... I guess that whatever things we can accuse Wilders of, dog-whistling is not one of them...

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Wow, basically the exact thing he did last time. Because that was so successful!

Wilders is basically a prime example of a politician who confuses wanking off the cadre all the time with appealling to the base. I mean, I know he has his cult, bit sooner or later the Populist Right in the Netherlands has got to realise that their God Emperor is a liability right?

Wait ... Does Geert have any children that will be his Marine?

[parochial boy]

They're bringing crime. They're rapists. And some, I assume, are good people.

[SunSt0rm]

Wilders is avoiding a debate again, this time he won't attend the RTL debate on March 5th, where the 8 biggest parties will debate. He wont attend the debate, because RTL interviewed his brother, who was critical to him. Wilders will now only attend two debates. the one-to-one debate with Rutte on the 13th and the final debate at NOS.

[DavidB.]

I guess he just doesn't want to be the largest party. I'll still be voting for the PVV because I see no alternative, but he has lost so many seats since January 1. In particular, he has pissed away his support with people who are more middle-class and with younger people, at this point doing worse with the <35 demograhic than nationally according to Peil, a clear difference with the breakdown I&O showed a few weeks ago. He has made so many unforced errors. What is most electorally damaging to him at this point is the impression that he is not seriously interested in taking responsibility. This is very easy to avoid by pointing at other parties' refusal to cooperate with him, and he is not going to govern anyway. But instead he avoids debates, which means he does not reach out to the many voters that sympathize with the PVV yet are not part of his base. I am afraid he thinks his base is a lot larger than it is, and everyone who is not with him is against him at this point. But politics does not work like that. Calling it: the VVD will be the largest party, the PVV will get only slightly more than they got in 2010.

For all the talk about the strength of the PVV, it is not exactly one of the best-performing RRWPs in Western Europe in terms of electoral strength (which is overlooked because the PVV is often first in the polls). Only Norwegian Progress, the Finns Party, AfD and perhaps VB currently poll worse than the PVV. The first two participate in governments, Germany is an exceptional case and VB is more extreme and has a much more tainted past than the PVV. And all this while the Netherlands, due to dealignment and relatively wide disappointment with the political establishment, should be one of the most fertile soils for RRWPs.

[Angel of Death]

When all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail. In Geert's case of course, the hammer is playing the victim. This guy has no intention whatsoever of ever being constructive in his political life.

[DavidB.]

Not even sure if that's the case. I think it's more that Wilders' strategic choices turn out to be dramatic, and since he decides everything on his own and fires everyone who disagrees with him, the unforced errors keep adding up. But who knows. My PVV-voting friends subtly reminded me of the fact that I was totally wrong when it came to predicting the U.S. election. I might be wrong again. But I don't think I am.

[DavidB.]

Parliament just voted to legalize and regulate the production process of weed in a 77-72 vote. For: PvdA, SP, D66, GL, PvdD, 50Plus, DENK, VNL, Houwers, Van Vliet, Monasch; against: VVD, CDA, PVV, CU, SGP. However, the parties that oppose this D66 initiative have a majority in the Senate (38 out of 75 seats) and it remains to be seen whether this will become law.

[ApatheticAustrian]

your logic and your point is sound, david but i think you underestimate the populist moment. dutch seems to be the perfect country for this experiment atm....if other parties are ready to cooperate.

[DavidB.]

your logic and your point is sound, david but i think you underestimate the populist moment. dutch seems to be the perfect country for this experiment atm....if other parties are ready to cooperate.

I'm sorry, what does this refer to?

[ApatheticAustrian]

your logic and your point is sound, david but i think you underestimate the populist moment. dutch seems to be the perfect country for this experiment atm....if other parties are ready to cooperate.

I'm sorry, what does this refer to?

ah, sorry....should have quoted.

your long sceptical post about wilder's chances 2 days ago.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Not even sure if that's the case. I think it's more that Wilders' strategic choices turn out to be dramatic, and since he decides everything on his own and fires everyone who disagrees with him, the unforced errors keep adding up. But who knows. My PVV-voting friends subtly reminded me of the fact that I was totally wrong when it came to predicting the U.S. election. I might be wrong again. But I don't think I am.

the firing everyone who disagrees with him sounds exactly like Trump, though

[DavidB.]

Well, he could still turn his campaign around, but he simply shoots himself in the foot by not participating in the debates. For all of Trump's mistakes, he didn't skip any of the truly relevant debates. This is especially relevant for a populist, because it allows them to address the voters directly, without all the media analysis. I guess I overreacted a little by basically implying everything was lost for him, which is not the case, but I do think his strategic choices hurt his electoral chances. And even if the atmosphere in the country is good for Wilders right now (and I think it is), most right-wing voters in the Netherlands just don't want to rock the boat; "no experiments", as Rutte said.

[ApatheticAustrian]

to be more out-spoken:

all those right-wing-nutjobs (no offense to their voters) are more or less sociopaths, who are leading their parties like family businesses and whose time is filled with scanalds, personal and political ones.

if you are living on the border of the law and good taste, you sometimes get a milo problem and mood turns against you.

more often, only educated people and politicos freak out, while low info voters either don't care, say everybody does it or - most common - see possible faults as signs of strength.

[Zinneke]

David, doesn't the municipals show that Wilders has the capability of attracting national attention without entering what his voters consider to be the establishment tricks. The guy stood in 2 cities, got a joint plurality in one and still managed to dominate the headlines. I doubt he is worried about the debates meaning that he will stay out of the limelight.

[ApatheticAustrian]

never forget, trump also dominated the debates he missed and he lost - arguably - 3 times to hillary...not even close.

[DavidB.]

He managed to dominate the headlines after the last municipal elections due to his speech, but not sure if he did so before. And let's not forget Almere and The Hague are cities where his base lives (that's why he picked these two cities in the first place). His performance in these places is going to be pretty inelastic. That is not the case in mainly suburban municipalities and in the South, where a lot more swing voters live. It is these places where he has to make the difference between 20 and 30 seats. I also think expectations in terms of debate performances, visibility etc. are much lower in muncipal elections. But we'll see. Worth noting that I'm an extreme pessimist when it comes to the electoral chances of every party or candidate I support.

[Zinneke]

Looks like PvdD are going to take Wilders' place in the debate because the devout christian party leaders can't work on Sundays.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Looks like PvdD are going to take Wilders' place in the debate because the devout christian party leaders can't work on Sundays.

Prediction: PvdD will be second in the polls next week..

[Zinneke]

Looks like PvdD are going to take Wilders' place in the debate because the devout christian party leaders can't work on Sundays.

Prediction: PvdD will be second in the polls next week..

Jesse and Marianne as the Dutch powercouple.

*drools*

[DavidB.]

Kek: GL and PvdA were dreaming of a center-left government of CDA-PvdA-GL-D66-SP-CU, but Buma now stated they can forget about that. He said the "ridiculous ideas" of left-wing parties should be combatted instead, a rather right-wing remark coming from the leader of the historically (but increasingly less) centrist CDA. Buma especially draws a contrast between GL's rigorous plans on taxes and the environment, earlier criticized by PvdA leader Asscher as "very green but not social", and between the CDA's center-right approach toward immigration and asylum and the left-wing approach. Buma also attacked Klaver specifically, saying that "Klaver's daydreams are the Dutch people's nightmares" and dismissing his agenda as elitist, naive and unaffordable for the middle class.

This was all very unsurprising and highly expected, but it does mean that the left can kiss any dreams about a center-left government goodbye. It also means VVD, CDA and D66 are virtually assured to be in the next government, which will likely be no less austere than the current one. However, it could still be beneficial to GL or PvdA to join it, because labor market reforms will have lower priority and spending will go up, which means they get a say in future decisions + may get to give out some freebies.

[DC Al Fine]

Looks like PvdD are going to take Wilders' place in the debate because the devout christian party leaders can't work on Sundays.

They can't have the debate on another day?

[DavidB.]

Apparently not. In 2012 it was not on a Sunday. They could have known this would be an unfortunate choice. Pretty sad state of affairs when a potential government party gets sidelined like that. But hey, it's 2017, etc.

[mvd10]

I wonder how being in government will affect D66 in the next elections (if they are in government, but I'm fairly sure D66 will be in the next government). Being in government seems to hurt them even more that other parties. Especially if it's a VVD-CDA-D66-CU-SGP coalition I can see D66 getting demolished in 2021.

[JA]

http://peilingwijzer.tomlouwerse.nl/2017/02/peilingwijzer-update-22-februari-2017.html?m=1