Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: coalition agreement presented

[Zinneke]

VVD are done in The South* of the mid terms are anything to go by. Only Venlo seems remotely pro-VVD beacon due to all the medium-scale business there. I'm not sure Rutte can win over Limburgers over a local VVD voice. It makes me wonder if they seem still somewhat tribal over there to you guys. Stevaert on the this side of the border is an example of that, getting lifelong CD&V/CVP voters on board at the turn of the century, and probably has bigger name recognition in Dutch Limburg than some Hollander parliamentarians. It'd be interesting to see what scores Limburgers get in Limburg compared to other provincial loyalties.

*which makes Flanders the Deep South and Wallonia Mexico. Makes sense I guess.

[DavidB.]

Voting behavior and turnout are both very different in second order elections, but yes, it is clear that a lot of VVD-2012 support in the South was highly conditional and that they will probably lose a lot of votes to CDA and PVV there. I wouldn't say they are done, though: I think the VVD may retain quite some popularity in Noord-Brabant, especially in a national election in which it should be able to do much better than in second-order elections. Buma is also hardly an attractive candidate to generic right-wingers in the South. As for Limburg, it will be interesting to see how well the PVV will do there. They lost quite a bit of support in the Provincial election in 2015 -- partly due to the fact that the inclusion of the PVV in the Provincial coalition was a disaster and partly because of a sharp drop in turnout, but still.

By the way, this is the new Kantar (formerly TNS-NIPO) poll. PVV sharply down (-8), and even more fragmentation:
http://i.imgur.com/UQicGcA.png

[jeron]

And another poll which has PVV losing a lot  compared to the previous poll (I&o research)

PVV 20 (-6)
VVD 24 (-1)
D66 20 (+5)
GL 19 (+1)
CDA 16 (+2)
PvdA 14 (+2)
SP 11 (-2)
CU 8 (+1)
50 plus 7 (-2)

Another poll showed people are switching from PVV to other parties for three reasons:
1. Trump. Some are worried about Trump's policies and Wilders seems to support Trump
2. Wilders can't get anything done because no one wants to be in a coalition with him
3. People agree with things he says but he seems to offer no solutions.

[MAINEiac4434]

First time I've seen PVDA above SP in awhile. And disaffected PVV voters can't be going to D66 can they?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

First time I've seen PVDA above SP in awhile. And disaffected PVV voters can't be going to D66 can they?

Almost certainly not - presumably such a swing if it is corrobated by other polls would suggest that the VVD is attracting back soft PVV voters (who may be frightened of terrorism, but not enough to back blondie) while simultaneously suffering some bleeding to their liberal side.

[Zinneke]

The PVV bleeding votes to VVD is masking the fact that VVD are also losing a lot of credibility due to a multitude of scandals and poor campaign so far, which is pushing CDA-D66 depending on the region. EDIT : the Brit beat me to it.

I think Rutte has played another blinder again by going guns blazing trying to attract the populist Right, but I really doubt Rutte will survive the coalition talks after this. A double figures net seat loss and a five party coalition with people to your left, plus the supposition that he had prior knowledge of the drugs lord being paid off. He's toast.

[DavidB.]

The I&O poll has a strong "anti-PVV" house effect (and in general this pollster seems to underpoll the right significantly on a structural basis), but indeed, it is undeniable that the PVV is in freefall mode, losing 8 seats in the Kantar poll too. The party is still first in this afternoon's Peilingwijzer, in which both the I&O and Kantar polls are taken into account, but I doubt that will last once new polls are released. Here is today's Peilingwijzer:


I have some potential explanations why, exactly, this is happening.

1. VVD-PVV swing voters moved to the PVV early February after the Teeven scandal became topical again and caused Van der Steur to resign. This showed VVD-PVV swing voters that the VVD is still "corrupt", that people within the party (probably including Rutte) are still lying, and that Security and Justice is still not under control. Many flocked to the PVV, and you see that the PVV got a big bump in early February. Those voters going back to the VVD after the "anti-Van der Steur bump" could be seen as a normalization rather than a dismissal of the PVV.
2. Wilders' photoshop of Alexander Pechtold, in which the D66 leader was depicted as if he were protesting in support of sharia law, was unpopular with voters. "Only" 79% of PVV voters approved of this, and 78% of both VVD and CDA voters disapproved. This fake picture gave middle-class swing voters the impression that Wilders is unserious or too radical. It was also reminiscent of Trump, with his "alternative facts", and Trump is not popular with the vast majority of Dutch voters.
3. The launch of the Stemwijzer (Votematch) received a lot of attention. Millions of people use Votematch and view this as an important part of their decisionmaking process. This is especially relevant in the Netherlands, since we have a lot of similar parties after all. Votematch is based on parties' manifestos rather than on parties' past and therefore incentivizes people to vote prospectively rather than retrospectively. In normal English: VVD-PVV swing voters who are disappointed with the VVD forget about this or downplay the importance of this when the VVD comes first in their Votematch result. Finding Rutte untrustworthy or soft on immigration then matters less. It is worth noting that in the other version of Votematch which I didn't post here, Kieskompas, the VVD somehow holds basically the same positions on immigration and integration as the PVV. People may think the VVD has made a turn to the right.

On the fluctuation of support for the PVV I have a general observation. The party's base and potential PVV voters are not the same demographics. Those potential PVV voters who voted VVD last time around and may now vote PVV, VVD or CDA are largely suburbans in more middle-class suburbs and/or southerners, higher educated than the PVV base, and younger. They think immigration has gone too far and that the VVD is too soft, but are cautious to "rock the boat" and go away the moment when Wilders says something strange: see also his drop in the polls after the introduction of the "headscarf tax", the scandal with regard to the "fewer Moroccans" speech, et cetera. Red meat for the lower educated base, toxic for potential supporters. They also do not want to leave the EU even if they think the EU integration process has gone too far, which is why the PVV's 2012 campaign, entirely revolving around Brussels/the EU, was so tone-deaf and such a disappointment (though the PVV clearly got screwed for an additional 2 to 4 seats due to tactical voting). If Wilders wants to turn out his base (which is another problem) and win over these swing voters, which is possible, it seems to me that he should solely focus on Rutte's credibility problem and go full negative without focusing on his own (lack of an) agenda. The issue that unites all these voters is that they are all anti-immigration/"Islamization"/multiculturalism, and he should absolutely focus on the fact that over 100,000 Muslims have entered the country over the last four years. What he should not do is taking it too far by coming up with some crazy proposal to catch people's attention or come up with Nexit. Of course, I suspect this is exactly what is going to happen, which is why the VVD will come first in the election.

[windjammer]

Lmao this poll makes no sense

[Famous Mortimer]

Too lazy to go back and read all of this but am I right that it's impossible for PVV to form a government, even if they win as many seats as projected in their best poll, because no one would form a coalition with them?

[SunSt0rm]

I think most important reason that the PVV is in somewhat decline is that many people don't view PVV as a serious party. This is confirmed with his photoshop action last week and the fact that he tries to avoid the media and the debates.

But I think its too early to conclude too much from these polls as the campaigns havent really started yet.

[DavidB.]

Too lazy to go back and read all of this but am I right that it's impossible for PVV to form a government, even if they win as many seats as projected in their best poll, because no one would form a coalition with them?

Yes, unless they somehow get over 40 seats while the VVD get only 20, dump Rutte, and appoint Zijlstra, who would then somehow have to open up to governing with the PVV. Then they have to add others to the coalition, which is going to be even more difficult. 50Plus could work. CDA and SGP could maybe sustain such a coalition from the outside. Such a coalition would get absolutely nothing out of the ordinary done and every VVD and CDA Senator could shoot down any proposal they would consider to be problematic.

So not going to happen, and even in the extremely unlikely event that it is happening, nothing out of the ordinary will be passed in terms of policy.

But I think its too early to conclude too much from these polls as the campaigns havent really started yet.

I mean, clearly you can conclude that the PVV is losing support at a very quick pace. That doesn't mean the picture cannot be radically different within two weeks (indeed, it likely will be), because that's just how the Netherlands is

[SunSt0rm]

Even as the PVV is declining, its still very hard to make a stable coalition. VVD-CDA-D66-CU are still short on the majority. I hope the VVD can absorb more voters from the PVV, while D66 can stop the Klavermania and get some GL voters, so a somewhat stable center-right coalition can be made after the election.

[DavidB.]

How will you be voting, Sunstorm?

I'm hoping for VVD-CDA-D66-PvdA-CU led by Rutte. As many establishment parties as possible.

[SunSt0rm]

How will you be voting, Sunstorm?

I'm hoping for VVD-CDA-D66-PvdA-CU. As many establishment parties as possible.

D66 or VVD.

Although I think the current coalition was fine, I think we should avoid a complete establishment coalition (VVD-CDA-D66-PVDA-GL). I understand you want a complete establishment coalition so it is a easy target for populist parties (PVV and SP). I dont think PVDA or GL alone will prop up a centre right coalition as it would be suicidal to them. So I think either both of them would join such a coalition or none of them.  So I hope a coalition of VVD-CDA-D66-CU even with outside support of SGP is enough.

[DavidB.]

In policy terms the coalition you prefer would probably be the best option possible, and I would be reasonably happy with such an outcome -- it would probably even be an improvement over the current coalition, even though that will also depend on the VVD's relative strength. My thoughts on party politics are very ambiguous and tend to fluctuate a lot even if my principles remain the same. I don't really have that much of a negative opinion of the current government. It's really mainly immigration and the EU I'm focusing on

If Asscher doesn't resign after the inevitable massive defeat, I could see him having the chutzpah to lead the party into another coalition because "he wants to take responsibility" (i.e. he doesn't want to be unemployed). I don't see GL enter the coalition unless they become the largest party (extremely unlikely) or the largest party behind the PVV (which may be possible if left-wing consolidation takes place and the VVD implodes), in which case Klaver could become PM. In that case, the coalition becomes an absolute trainwreck and GL will receive its 2012 result in the following election.

[SunSt0rm]

In policy terms the coalition you prefer would probably be the best option possible, and I would be reasonably happy with such an outcome -- it would probably even be an improvement over the current coalition, even though that will also depend on the VVD's relative strength. My thoughts on party politics are very ambiguous and tend to fluctuate a lot even if my principles remain the same. I don't really have that much of a negative opinion of the current government. It's really mainly immigration and the EU I'm focusing on

If Asscher doesn't resign after the inevitable massive defeat, I could see him having the chutzpah to lead the party into another coalition because "he wants to take responsibility" (i.e. he doesn't want to be unemployed). I don't see GL enter the coalition unless they become the largest party (extremely unlikely) or the largest party behind the PVV (which may be possible if left-wing consolidation takes place and the VVD implodes), in which case Klaver could become PM. In that case, the coalition becomes an absolute trainwreck and GL will receive its 2012 result in the following election.

I doubt Asscher will resign or be fired by his party after the election unless Aboutaleb wants to become leader (which I dont think will happen immediately after the election). He can always blame the loss on Samsom. I already have the feeling that the PvdA has accepted a heavy loss like the CDA did in 2012.

[parochial boy]

Does the Netherlands generally experience the phenomenon of "swing back" to the incumbent party in the run up to the election, as voters end up picking the "safe choice"?

Could that not explain some of PVV's recent drop? It would seem to tie up with what happened to the SP last time

[SunSt0rm]

Does the Netherlands generally experience the phenomenon of "swing back" to the incumbent party in the run up to the election, as voters end up picking the "safe choice"?

Could that not explain some of PVV's recent drop? It would seem to tie up with what happened to the SP last time

Yes a bit different, its called the Prime minister bonus, where the biggest party is profiting from having the prime minister. In most cases its the junior party that suffers the consequences of the government. In most elections, there is two-way races between the PvdA and VVD or CDA, which sucks the voters of smaller parties.

The case of the SP in 2012 was the dreadful performance of Roemer in the debates that explains the fall of the SP.

[DavidB.]

Interesting: data on voting (and non-voting) behavior for all sorts of demographics for the 2012 election.

[mvd10]

The CPB released their analysis of the election manifesto's. All parties would reduce the budget surplus, VVD for instance would cut taxes by €12 billion while only cutting spending by €4.3 billion (lol fiscal conservatism). I suppose it's much easier to come to a coalition agreement when there is room for €7 billion in freebies so perhaps GroenLinks or PvdA will join VVD-CDA-D66. It's probably really tempting to join a coalition which is going to give away billions of freebies.

If anyone wants to see the results I can post them (or you can look them up yourselves if you speak Dutch).

I also wonder how the 25-35 group voted in the 2006 election. Anyone born between 1977 and 1987 was able to vote in 2006 and I think more than 1% voted for CDA (they got 41 seats in that election).

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Which party will splurge the most?

[mvd10]

Which party will splurge the most?

PVV, 50PLUS and the Party for the Animals didn't let the CPB analyse their manifesto's so I don't know how their proposals will affect the debt (I strongly suspect PVV and especially 50PLUS don't care about the debt at all).

PvdA, SP, GroenLinks, CDA and the Vrijzinnige Partij (some fringe party) will all splurge 10 billion euros or more, but that's before the CPB takes extra economic growth into account.


https://www.cpb.nl/sites/default/files/omnidownload/Keuzes-in-Kaart-2018-2021.pdf

Search for ''tabel 2.1 samenvattend overzicht'', the important stuff is there.

EMU-saldo is the surplus/deficit relative to the baseline (ex-ante is without extra growth, ex-post is with extra growth). BBP is GDP.
Bbp-volume is economic growth relative to the baseline
Werkloosheid is unemployment relative to the baseline
Koopkracht is purchasing power relative to the baseline, werkenden means employed people, gepensioneerden are retired people and uitkeringsgerechtigden are people living on benefits.
Laagste t.o.v. hoogste inkomens show how the purchasing power of low income people will develop relative to the wealthy
Structurele werkgelegenheid is structural employment

DENK apparently is the only party that actually increases the budget surplus. Lol.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Haha, can't wait for the Economist to endorse DENK.

[DavidB.]

Edit: Fuck this, the images don't work. Will offer them as URLs instead. Didn't do all parties, but just to give you an impression what this looks like:

http://i.imgur.com/QXa109b.jpg
D66: focusing on education and tax cuts for families, not on social security and tax cuts for businesses. Moderate effects on the short term. In the long run one of the best when it comes to increasing the total number of jobs and, perhaps surprisingly, one of the parties that will most decrease inequality.

http://i.imgur.com/nTD6P6r.jpg
GL: focusing on healthcare and tax cuts for families, not (perhaps surprisingly) on social security and tax cuts for businesses. In the short term one of the best when it comes to increasing the total number of jobs and increasing purchasing power among consumers, but employment will go up only a little bit in the long run. Economic inequality will go down by a lot.

http://i.imgur.com/uqQWRHp.jpg
SP: focusing on healthcare, social security and tax cuts for families. Number one when it comes to employment and increasing purchasing power on the short term, but in the long run the national debt will spiral out of control and employment will go down by a lot. Number one in increasing equality (because we will all be unemployed).

http://i.imgur.com/8mVkumC.jpg
The other extreme, VNL. Focus on security, defense, tax cuts for businesses, and in particular tax cuts for households. Much less spending on social security and education compared to the baseline. Positive effects on economic growth and purchasing power in the short run (though a net negative effect on the national debt compared to the baseline). More unemployment and a hell of a lot more inequality in the long run.

http://i.imgur.com/a65qQMY.jpg
VVD. Focus on tax cuts for individuals, security, and defense. No focus on tax cuts for businesses and social security. Moderate short-term effects on all aspects. In the long run the best party when it comes to the national debt and especially when it comes to increasing the total number of jobs. Inequality will go up (though not nearly as much as with VNL's plans).

Of course, given the fact that we have coalition governments and given the large number of variables at play, the question remains how valuable this exercise is.

[Zuza]

Interesting: data on voting (and non-voting) behavior for all sorts of demographics for the 2012 election.

7 % of non-Western immigrants voted for PVV? That's strange.