Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: coalition agreement presented

[Hifly]

SP: 57%
DBB (what's this??): 50%
Animals: 47%
Forum voor Democratie (??): 47%
Artikel (??): 47%
Nieuwe Wegen: 47%
PVV: 47%
50+: 43%
Pirates: 43%
SGP: 43%

[mvd10]

83% VVD
77% OndernemersPartij (ugh, I probably agree with them on the issues but I'd never vote for Brinkman)
69% CDA
69% VNL
66% SGP
63% Libertarische Partij
60% Forum voor Democratie
Too lazy to mention the rest

Pretty much as expected. Had a bit of doubt about the mortgage deduction. Is it correctly understood that an agree to that question would mean that the tax deduction is not reduced, i.e. benefitting wealthy property owners who can get bigger tax deductions due to expensive mortgage interests?

Yes, you understood that correctly, though it wouldn't only benefit wealthy property owners (afaik it has been restricted over a certain amount of money already, though I'm sure mvd10 can tell you more about this) but also ordinary middle and upper middle class homeowners. Also, not further reducing it is the status-quo, so no one will get a bigger tax deduction than is now the case.

The maximum value of the mortgage interest deduction will be limited to 38% instead of 40.8% or 52%, the tax brackets of most people with mortgages. There also have been some further restrictions. But it's probably not going to be an issue this campaign which is pretty sad since this seems the ideal time to limit it even further (historically low mortgage interest rates).

PM Rutte's second choice according to the Stemwijzer is the SGP btw. It seems weird, but none of the issues on which the SGP is far outside the mainstream (abortion, death sentence and LGBT rights) is mentioned in the Stemwijzer and on issues like taxes and defense the SGP is pretty close to the other centre-right parties so that probably explains it.

[DavidB.]

But it's probably not going to be an issue this campaign which is pretty sad since this seems the ideal time to limit it even further (historically low mortgage interest rates).

Just wondering: why do you want to limit it even further? I'm not knowledgeable at all on this topic, but I generally don't think even more "nivellering" is a good idea. Higher income earners already pay so much in taxes here. I'm okay with abolishing it in order to end its less desirable effects on the housing market, but only if the income tax is lowered substantially to compensate for the effects.

[mvd10]

But it's probably not going to be an issue this campaign which is pretty sad since this seems the ideal time to limit it even further (historically low mortgage interest rates).

Just wondering: why do you want to limit it even further? I'm not knowledgeable at all on this topic, but I generally don't think even more "nivellering" is a good idea. Higher income earners already pay so much in taxes here.

It distorts the housing market. And limiting it doesn't have to be wealth redistribution, you can use the revenue to cut income tax rates for higher income earners. But yeah, parties which want to limit it even further are mainly left-wing parties which want to raise taxes on higher income earners, something I oppose.

[DavidB.]

^ ah, yeah, it seems we're in agreement here.

[Zinneke]

PvdD : 71%
SP: 70%
PvdA : 67%
GL : 67%


btw, bit of a storm brewing with Wilders tweeting a photoshopped picture of Pechtold in an Islamic demonstration in London. He is trying to out-trump Trump by retweeting people who believe him, essentially trying to create an internet meme of Pechtold being an islamist.

http://www.standaard.be/cnt/dmf20170206_02715319

[mvd10]

The new mayor of The Hague (third biggest city in the Netherlands) will be announced today (we don't directly elect our mayors, they are appointed). I don't know why but the name of former PM Balkenende (CDA) is floating. It's probably fake, I can't see him leaving his nice job at Ernst & Young to be mayor of The Hague.

[DavidB.]

The new mayor of The Hague (third biggest city in the Netherlands) will be announced today (we don't directly elect our mayors, they are appointed). I don't know why but the name of former PM Balkenende (CDA) is floating. It's probably fake, I can't see him leaving his nice job at Ernst & Young to be mayor of The Hague.

Wouldn't be surprised if it were a PvdA member. Rumor has it a lot of them will be jobless after March 15. Probably still an improvement over Van Aartsen though.

[mvd10]

The new mayor of The Hague (third biggest city in the Netherlands) will be announced today (we don't directly elect our mayors, they are appointed). I don't know why but the name of former PM Balkenende (CDA) is floating. It's probably fake, I can't see him leaving his nice job at Ernst & Young to be mayor of The Hague.

Wouldn't be surprised if it were a PvdA member. Rumor has it a lot of them will be jobless after March 15.

Plasterk? But I've read that CDA and VVD wants one of their politicians to be the next mayor of The Hague because the PvdA already has the mayors of Amsterdam and Rotterdam.

[DavidB.]

Yeah, I was partly joking, and that sounds plausible. I've also seen the name of Ank Bijleveld (CDA) float around. I'd like Balkenende (but as you said, probably fake news) or Plasterk but not someone like Bijleveld, who would owe her position solely to being a loyal party foot soldier. That type of appointments for functions as important as this one just irks me.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Including only parties I've actually heard of...

SP - 73%
PvdD - 70%
denk - 67%
Pirates - 63%
D66 - 53%
CU - 53%
GL - 53%
PvdA - 50%
50 Plus - 50%
Libertarians - 43%
VVD - 40%
CDA - 40%
PVV - 37%
SGP - 33%

[Angel of Death]

The earlied mentioned "coalition checker" has used aforementioned voting guide to get to a crude compatibility score of the various possible coalitions: https://www.coalitiechecker.nl/verenigbaarheid
For more fun, try toying with the text area in the upper left, which lists the mutually excluded parties.

[DavidB.]

The idea that a coalition with VVD and DENK would be ideologically compatible in any way is just laughable. Garbage model, though yes, some of the other tools are fun. But it seems clear to me (though I'll probably look stupid two months from now because that's just how the Netherlands is) that we'll get VVD-CDA-D66 and then some small parties -- possibly as a minority government, possibly with a majority. VVD-CDA-D66-CU with SGP+50Plus outside support seems most likely to me.

[DavidB.]

Pauline Krikke (VVD, Senator, former mayor of Arnhem and alderwoman in Amsterdam) will be the new mayor of The Hague.

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

Animals: 60%
SP: 57%
Pirates: 57
Artikel 57
GL 53
Labor 50
Vrijz. (Libertarians?) 50
D66 50
Denk
N Wegen
Libertarians
...
Bunch of right wing parties and 50 plus

[parochial boy]

Pirates, PvdD and SP - 76%
Atrikel 1- 74%
GL - 71%
PvdA - 61%
D66 - 54%
PVV - 32%
VVD - 25%

Spent ages trying to find out who "Artikel 1" are. Apparently someone who split off from Denk? Good God that's obscure.

[DavidB.]

Spent ages trying to find out who "Artikel 1" are. Apparently someone who split off from Denk? Good God that's obscure.

Sylvana Simons is a former tv anchorwoman and nowadays an anti-racism activist known for her opposition to the controversial figure of Zwarte Piet. She subsequently became the most prominent Surinamese Dutch DENK candidate, received a lot of media attention and an awful bunch of racist death threats which, according to her, weren't handled the right way by DENK, who, according to her, were only interested in using the threats against Simons in a political way instead of caring about her. In addition to that, Simons found out DENK didn't actually appreciate her speaking out about LGBT and women's rights. So she left and established her own party, Artikel 1, which has three women at the first three slots and is all about intersectionality, racial diversity and feminism.

[parochial boy]

Spent ages trying to find out who "Artikel 1" are. Apparently someone who split off from Denk? Good God that's obscure.

Sylvana Simons is a former tv anchorwoman and nowadays an anti-racism activist known for her opposition to the controversial figure of Zwarte Piet. She subsequently became the most prominent Surinamese Dutch DENK candidate, received a lot of media attention and an awful bunch of racist death threats which, according to her, weren't handled the right way by DENK, who, according to her, were only interested in using the threats against Simons in a political way instead of caring about her. In addition to that, Simons found out DENK didn't actually appreciate her speaking out about LGBT and women's rights. So she left and established her own party, Artikel 1, which has three women at the first three slots and is all about intersectionality, racial diversity and feminism.

Ah thanks, that rings a bell for some reason.

My main take on the test is that I have really annoying political views.

[JA]

84% - Party for the Animals
74% - Socialist Party
74% - GroenLinks
65% - Democrats 66
58% - Labor Party
45% - 50 Plus
35% - Christian Union
29% - Party for Freedom
23% - People's Party for Freedom and Democracy
19% - Reformed Political Party
16% - Christian Democratic Appeal

I wouldn't have expected to align most with PvdD, but that's what seems to be the case. If I was Dutch I'd probably vote GroenLinks, but I'd certainly look twice at the Partyfor the Animals now. Regardless, I hope the three parties with whichever I most agree are in the next government somehow.

[mvd10]

If GroenLinks had someone like Halsema or Sap as leader I could easily see a VVD-CDA-D66-GroenLinks coalition. But under Klaver they have shifted to the left (and it has worked for them, even though it probably has more to do with Klaver) so I don't think they will back a coalition with those 3 parties. And it doesn't even have a majority in the polls at the moment (it's close though). I hope the PvdA won't commit suicide by entering a coalition with these 3 parties. So that only leaves VVD-CDA-D66 with support from some small parties. I just hope we can keep 50PLUS out of this. But apparently Buma and Rutte hate each other, and Klaver has talked about kicking the VVD out, so perhaps a 6 party coalition without the VVD and PVV is an option (CDA-GroenLinks-D66-PvdA-SP-CU?). I don't think that will happen though.

[DavidB.]

The formation process is going to be a disaster if VVD-CDA-D66-50Plus-CU-SGP don't have a majority and they need a left-wing party. But if they do, it is the most likely potential coalition.

If they do need a left-wing party, I'd see Asscher entering he coalition (if he still leads the party by then) before Klaver. But this is all speculation and probably all wrong. Last time around we all thought a three or four-party coalition would be necessary.

[DavidB.]

The Senate just approved a law that gives the Security and Justice Minister (not Ard van der Steur...) permission to rescind the Dutch nationality from people who have double citizenship and engage in terrorist activities outside the country without approval from the court. VVD, CDA, PVV, SGP and 50Plus Senators voted for the initiative. This person then becomes persona non grata in the Netherlands. The Senate also approved a law that allows the government to force terrorism suspects to stay away from certain areas, to refrain from being in touch with certain people and to require them to come by the police station every day.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Leading party by province 1946-2012



Exact geographical situation wrt mad polderland grossly oversimplified because sanity etc.

[Vosem]

So, took the test, and got a rather odd result...

63 Ondernemers Partij
60 D66
60 PvdA
57 CDA
57 ChristenUnie
53 Artikel
53 Neuwe Wegen
53 Denk
53 VNL
53 VVD
53 Vrijzinnige Partij
50 50Plus
50 LidK
50 GroenLinks
47 SGP
43 FVD
43 PvdD
40 Pirates
40 Libertarische Partij
40 SP
37 PVV
33 DBB

Didn't expect so many parties to be so high, nor for PVV to be so low (it's not unusual for these sorts of tests to recommend UKIP or AfD for me when I answer British or German questionnaires). Was also quite surprised to see PvdA so high (even ahead of VVD!).

[DavidB.]

The PvdA are not only losing the ethnic Dutch vote but also the vote of those with a migration background, researcher Aziz El Kaddouri's Etnobarometer found. The PvdA won 43% of the immigrant vote in 2012 yet will win only 20% in 2017, El Kaddouri projects. This is still a smaller percentual decline than among ethnic Dutch voters. DENK will win 20% of the immigrant vote and Artikel 1 2%. DENK is set to win 40% of Turkish Dutch voters and 34% of Moroccan Dutch voters and is "the party of the angry brown man", El Kaddouri stated. However, fewer than half of the potential voters with a migration background say that they are going to vote, which means this only represents 1 seat for the PvdA and 1 seat for DENK. Surinamese Dutch voters mainly stay with the PvdA, but remarkable is that the PVV comes second with this group: 14% of Surinamese Dutch say they will be voting for Wilders' party. It is mainly Hindustani Surinamese and much less Creole Surinamese who vote for the PVV. The party receives results better than the national average with Hindustanis. In the process of becoming middle-class, many Hindustanis engaged in "Hindustani flight" from Amsterdam to places in the Amsterdam commuter belt such as Almere and Purmerend, though there are also many Hindustani Dutch in The Hague.

All people with a migration background: