Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: coalition agreement presented

[freek]

All this may lead to more than 100,000 votes essentially being thrown away if all three parties end up under the 0,67% threshold, though it remains to be seen whether FvD and GP will actually get on the ballot.

Why wouldn't they get on the ballot? It is not that difficult, if you have some kind of a party organization.

Its still a costly exercise and I think its fair to say that the Dutch Right is hard electoral market to enter right now.

New peil.nl poll has PVV +1 to 34, PvdD +1 to 5, VVD -1 to 24 and D66 -1 to 14. The SP is now at 11 seats, -4 compared to TK12 and the only opposition party losing seats, truly a piss poor performance given the PvdA's unpopularity.

What is GL's score in light of PVDA's unpopularity?

[DavidB.]

All this may lead to more than 100,000 votes essentially being thrown away if all three parties end up under the 0,67% threshold, though it remains to be seen whether FvD and GP will actually get on the ballot.

Why wouldn't they get on the ballot? It is not that difficult, if you have some kind of a party organization.

I don't doubt they could do it if they want to, but that doesn't mean that what they say is what they are actually going to do. It's more likely than not that yes, they will be on the ballot -- but I believe it when I see it. Though they did get a lot of media attention today for their idea of organizing online referendums on all proposals and just voting along with the majority on the internet. A terrible idea imo.

What is GL's score in light of PVDA's unpopularity?

At 14 seats, +10 compared to the 2012 GE. 14 seats woul be an all-time high for the party. Safe to say Klaver has the momentum on the left and GL are the main benefactor from the PvdA's implosion, though Asscher would probably be able to win back at least some PvdA-GL swing voters (but perhaps even more PvdA-D66 swing voters).

[DavidB.]

Curious to hear how the other Dutch posters think about this, because I'm starting to get the idea that if (big if, probably not going to happen!) the PVV truly becomes the largest party with, say, 7 seats more than the VVD, as the polls now indicate, that a coalition consisting of both PVV and VVD may be in the cards (though even then it is unlikely).

Most Dutch voters think the PVV should be in the government if they become the largest party and it will become extremely difficult for the VVD to ignore that wish, particularly because most VVD voters are not opposed to cooperation with the PVV. If VVD and PVV add up to 60 seats and they have a majority with 50Plus, SGP and (difficult again, I know) CU, a PVV-VVD minority government with Rutte as PM and the CU, 50Plus and SGP supporting this trainwreck from the outside (including some occasional CDA support wherever necessary, though obviously not nearly as close as in the Rutte-I govt as the idea of cooperating with the PVV is very, very toxic in the CDA) may actually happen. The real problem for such a PVVVD coalition would be in the Senate, but CDA senators may be willing to budge there. Of course, this all assumes that Wilders is willing to govern, which is absolutely not something I would be willing to bet on.

Now, to be clear, I don't expect the PVV to win by a large margin (say, 6+ seats) over the "second party", I don't expect Rutte to be okay with governing with the PVV, and I don't think CU would be likely to accept any of this... but I also don't think it is impossible, especially if the political landscape would be as awfully fragmented as polls currently suggest and if alternative would be some centrist coalition that would have to involve four or five out of VVD, CDA, D66, SP, GL and PvdA. Most parties would rather sit back and watch the sh**tshow from the outside. It's still extremely unlikely. But I don't think it's impossible.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

How secure is Roemer's leadership of the SP at the moment, given their poor polling at the moment?

[SunSt0rm]

Curious to hear how the other Dutch posters think about this, because I'm starting to get the idea that if (big if, probably not going to happen!) the PVV truly becomes the largest party with, say, 7 seats more than the VVD, as the polls now indicate, that a coalition consisting of both PVV and VVD may be in the cards (though even then it is unlikely).

Most Dutch voters think the PVV should be in the government if they become the largest party and it will become extremely difficult for the VVD to ignore that wish, particularly because most VVD voters are not opposed to cooperation with the PVV. If VVD and PVV add up to 60 seats and they have a majority with 50Plus, SGP and (difficult again, I know) CU, a PVV-VVD minority government with Rutte as PM and the CU, 50Plus and SGP supporting this trainwreck from the outside (including some occasional CDA support wherever necessary, though obviously not nearly as close as in the Rutte-I govt as the idea of cooperating with the PVV is very, very toxic in the CDA) may actually happen. The real problem for such a PVVVD coalition would be in the Senate, but CDA senators may be willing to budge there. Of course, this all assumes that Wilders is willing to govern, which is absolutely not something I would be willing to bet on.

Now, to be clear, I don't expect the PVV to win by a large margin (say, 6+ seats) over the "second party", I don't expect Rutte to be okay with governing with the PVV, and I don't think CU would be likely to accept any of this... but I also don't think it is impossible, especially if the political landscape would be as awfully fragmented as polls currently suggest and if alternative would be some centrist coalition that would have to involve four or five out of VVD, CDA, D66, SP, GL and PvdA. Most parties would rather sit back and watch the sh**tshow from the outside. It's still extremely unlikely. But I don't think it's impossible.

I think such a scenario is very unlikely. The only person in the VVD, I guess would serious consider is Zijlstra, who is on the right of the VVD, but even then its still unlikely. The differences between the VVD and PVV are large, they may only agree on immigration and slashing on foreign aid, but economically, on Europe and on the Islam, the differences are large. Even if they somehow agree with each other, I only think SGP and VNL may join them, but such a combination will not have a majority, and is far from a majority in the senate. About 50plus no idea, but I dont thnk the VVD is willing corperate with both the PVV and 50plus.

CDA will not support them after what happened in Rutte-1 and CU is to the left of the CDA, so no chance. Furthermore any proposal from the PVV on immigration, Europe or the Islam will not make it through the senate anyway.

On the other hand, an establishment coalition (VVD, CDA, D66, PVDA, GL and CU) seems difficult as well, such a coalition would weak and very vunerable to populists parties. Next, I dont think GL and PVDA are willing to join a centre right coalition after what happened to the PVDA now. On the other hand, I find it difficult to imagine that CDA and D66 will join a left coalition of PVDA, SP and GL. The only realistic stable coalition I see will consist of VVD, CDA and D66 with support of CU and SGP. But then D66 would have to suck the left vote. So yeah, it seems Dutch politics is clusterfck

How secure is Roemer's leadership of the SP at the moment, given their poor polling at the moment?

Secured before the election, but he is probably finished after the election

[DavidB.]

I think such a scenario is very unlikely. The only person in the VVD, I guess would serious consider is Zijlstra, who is on the right of the VVD, but even then its still unlikely. The differences between the VVD and PVV are large, they may only agree on immigration and slashing on foreign aid, but economically, on Europe and on the Islam, the differences are large. Even if they somehow agree with each other, I only think SGP and VNL may join them, but such a combination will not have a majority, and is far from a majority in the senate. About 50plus no idea, but I dont thnk the VVD is willing corperate with both the PVV and 50plus.

CDA will not support them after what happened in Rutte-1 and CU is to the left of the CDA, so no chance. Furthermore any proposal from the PVV on immigration, Europe or the Islam will not make it through the senate anyway.

Yes, I totally agree that it's still very unlikely and that not much PVV policy would actually be passed. I also agree that there are numerous other things which make it incredibly unlikely for such a coalition to be formed. The only thing I assess differently than you is the idea that only Zijlstra would be willing to take into consideration governing with the PVV. The VVD have no backbone. If they think they would be able to get a better deal out of a coalition with the PVV -- which of course is not a given -- they would probably do it. We have seen how flexible Rutte is. The PVV is currently pretty far away ideologically from the VVD, but so was the PvdA. Numerous differences between these situations, but still. The VVD consist of opportunists.

On the other hand, an establishment coalition (VVD, CDA, D66, PVDA, GL and CU) seems difficult as well, such a coalition would weak and very vunerable to populists parties. Next, I dont think GL and PVDA are willing to join a centre right coalition after what happened to the PVDA now. On the other hand, I find it difficult to imagine that CDA and D66 will join a left coalition of PVDA, SP and GL. The only realistic stable coalition I see will consist of VVD, CDA and D66 with support of CU and SGP. But then D66 would have to suck the left vote. So yeah, it seems Dutch politics is clusterfck

Yes, I agree. A VVD-CDA-D66 minority government with CU, SGP, 50Plus outside support seems to be the most likely scenario at this point to me (and it has been for a long time, I think I said such at page 1 of this thread too). I simply cannot imagine GL, having taken a sharp turn to the left under Klaver, doing it (GL under Halsema would have done it), and the PvdA really, really need a break from governing even if Asscher becomes leader and they win about 20 seats. That means all other centrist parties and perhaps the SP, who are showing signs that they are open to governing with D66 and the VVD, will have to be part of the deal, whether inside or outside the government. Instability galore.

[Angel of Death]

A (mostly) nonpartisan government of technocrats (like one Monti lead in Italy) might possibly provide a solution after the next election, although you have to go back to the 19th century for Dutch examples.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

How secure is Roemer's leadership of the SP at the moment, given their poor polling at the moment?

Secured before the election, but he is probably finished after the election

Any likely successors? SP is definitely a party that (on paper) should benefit from the current malaise, so their failure is pretty interesting.

[Zinneke]

How secure is Roemer's leadership of the SP at the moment, given their poor polling at the moment?

Secured before the election, but he is probably finished after the election

Any likely successors? SP is definitely a party that (on paper) should benefit from the current malaise, so their failure is pretty interesting.

Perhaps in industrial centers with strong Marxist cultures of opposition and trade unionism, and the whole progressive ideology that comes with it. SP's equivalent in Belgium is at a whopping 18% in the South, where most of the population live in the industrial belt of Wallonia (Sambre-Meuse valley).

SP's main core vote comes from places like the North that are extremely depressed and traditionally vote for the left and then places that resemble the Walloon industrial belt a lot, like Oss, Boxmeer, and South Limburg - where it is pretty much in a split plurality with the PVV. Unfortunately their ground game appears to be heavily limited to targeting old industry and old voters and not going any further, and these regions tend to decrease in population thanks to a flexible labour market for young people.

PVV also simply monopolise issues like immigration in the media which attract part of the industrial vote SP is obsessed with, along with urban (GroenLinks), suburban (PVV-GroenLinks) and rural (CDA-CU-50+) voters.

Roemer is definitely a liability and there is a lot of tactical voting that is starting to form up. They were in the bracket of parties all on 20 seats before. SP suffer heavily from the structural reasons above and from having a de facto cordon sanitaire around them - yet PVV didn't. In Belgium its the opposite, although the N-VA are thinking of ending the cordon sanitaire with the extreme right.

[DavidB.]

Any likely successors? SP is definitely a party that (on paper) should benefit from the current malaise, so their failure is pretty interesting.

Renske Leijten, spokesperson on healthcare, seems to be the heir apparent in the party hierarchy. Would probably not be a big success either, though she will probably be taken more seriously than Roemer, who comes across as a kind but not too intelligent provincial uncle. But Leijten doesn't seem like someone who would be able to change the discourse and receive 25> seats, though in Dutch politics you never know.

JosepBroz's post is good (though I think he misinterpreted Crabcake's question), but one point of disagreement: I don't think you can say there has been or was a de facto cordon sanitaire against the SP, simply because there is no evidence for it. Before 2006, when PvdA and CDA both still received 35-45 seats on a structural basis, the SP were small/unnecessary to form a government. In 2006 they actually did engage in government talks, but the PvdA weren't all that enthusiastic (always an issue on the left) and the differences with the CDA were large, so negotiations were ended and the CU were taken into the government instead. In 2010, the SP lost 9 seats and the logical alternative to VVD-CDA-PVV would have been VVD-PvdA-D66-GroenLinks (purple plus). In 2012, Roemer bombed in the debate (while the PvdA was pushed 24/7 by Hilversum, where Samsom was considered the Messiah), lost all his virtual gains, and was subsequently unnecessary for a coalition. Nowadays, the SP have been in government in places such as Amsterdam and Utrecht and provinces such as Noord-Brabant, Zuid-Holland and Groningen, with other parties stating that cooperating with the SP is far preferable to cooperating with the PvdA. There has been no de facto cordon sanitaire. When the SP was not invited for government talks it was either too small/irrelevant or too far away ideologically from other parties, which is a perfectly normal part of the political process in which parties engage all the time: after all, parties can, to a certain degree, be assumed to be policy-seeking.

[Zinneke]

Geert Wilders found guilty of inciting discrimination against Dutch Morrocans. Judge said that no sentence or fine would be given as it is sufficient punishment to be found guilty given Wilders is a politician. Judge clearly knows nothing about politics then.

Also, DavidB, you are right, SP can't be under a cordon sanitaire given that at local levels they are integrated, unlike VB. But I think the cordon sanitaire tactic on a national level worked wonders against them in 2012 and it will be the same this time round. Under Marijnissen too I remember they did well in the mid-2000s and the mainstream political parties just ignored them, while pandering to the LPF before and Geertje afterwards. I know Fortuyn and Wilders are not VB but they aren't exactly choir children either compared to SP's relatively soft democratic socialism.

[DavidB.]

To be precise, Wilders was convicted of group insult and incitement to discrimination, but not of incitement to hatred. As Rogier said, Wilders will not be punished for his remarks: no fine or something like that. The public prosecutor accepted this, stating it is more important to establish that there is a limit to politicians' freedom of speech ("they are not above the law") and that Wilders has been irresponsible.

It remains to be seen what the political consequences will be (probably very little by the time the election takes place, people will stop caring after a few weeks), but polls indicate that most people think this trial should not have happened in the first place, and to some, a conviction without any consequences might be the ultimate proof that this has been a political process all along or something like that. At least I don't expect this trial to affect Wilders negatively (if the court expects anything like that they are indeed more than foolish), and if I were Rutte I would certainly not bring it up in any debate in an ill-advised attempt to make himself look Prime Ministerial.

[mvd10]

Asscher just defeated Samsom 54.5-45.5 in the PvdA primary. I expected Samsom to win tbh. I wonder what this means for potential coalitions. I always saw Asscher as more centrist than Samsom but lately Asscher has been talking about a strong left-wing block with SP and GroenLinks.

[DavidB.]

Well, prepare for 4 months of Asscher in DWDD, Pauw, Nieuwsuur...

[Zinneke]

Its a superficial change they had to make.

[DavidB.]

"Would you like for him to get more or fewer votes in the Netherlands?"
"More, more, more!"
"Then we'll take care of that."

[DavidB.]

Not too much happened over the last two weeks, the most important issue being Rutte striking a deal with other EU leaders to add a legally binding declaration to the EU Association Agreement in which it is stated that EU member states do not have an obligation to pay more, that Ukraine will have to work on combatting corruption, that EU member states are not obliged to provide Ukraine with military assistance and that the Agreement does not necessarily constitute a first step toward the process of becoming an EU member state. A poll showed 76% of no voters do not think this was sufficient. 47% of all voters think the additional declaration is an improvement, 45% think it is not. 30% view Rutte's role in the entire referendum saga as positive, 47% as negative. 42% think that parliament should accept the Agreement in combination with the new declaration, 47% think it should not be accepted. However, the minority government already found a majority in parliament (because of D66 and GL) and will probably have one in the Senate too (because of D66, GL and CDA, but the CDA senators, who are needed, haven't confirmed their support yet).

The PVV has continued to skyrocket in the polls, while new PvdA leader Asscher hasn't gotten a "leadership bonus". Meanwhile, the VVD continues to engage in a quasi-Hillaryesque campaign ("five arguments that make your angry pro-Nexit uncle shut up!") that is absolutely foolish and may destroy the party's potential to win back VVD-PVV swing voters before March if they continue to do this. The "angry pro-Nexit uncle" probably voted VVD in the last election himself due to Rutte's populist campaign and his (broken) promises on Greece. If the VVD think they can do it without these people, they are wrong.

Meanwhile, several anonymous SP MPs gave an interview to the Algemeen Dagblad in which they criticized party leader Emile Roemer as someone who "cannot even lead his own party, let alone the country." They also said he would be "dead meat" after the election, in which the SP is poised to not gain any seats, and called that "pretty sad." Chairman Ron Meyer was also criticized for focusing the party's campaign solely on the proposed single-payer healthcare system Nationaal Zorgfonds ("which isn't even well thought-out", pretty damning criticism!) while not saying anything about immigration, integration and national security. Meyer and Roemer subsequently summoned all MPs to come by their office individually and have a meeting with them, which I imagine must have been pretty scary. It is now widely expected that Lilian Marijnissen, daughter of long-term party leader and chairman Jan Marijnissen, will become party leader after the election.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

"proposed single payer" - but Sanders fans assured me all of Europtopia had single payer! Next you'll be saying not all Europeans have free college!

[windjammer]

Honestly David, I have the feeling Wilders will become PM.

[Zinneke]

Honestly David, I have the feeling Wilders will become PM.

Still a long way to go. Last election SP was in a similar position around this time.

[Angel of Death]

Honestly David, I have the feeling Wilders will become PM.

Where is he going to find 76 seats?

[Tender Branson]

Honestly David, I have the feeling Wilders will become PM.

Where is he going to find 76 seats?

Also, where is he going to find the coalition partners that he needs for PM ?

[windjammer]

Honestly David, I have the feeling Wilders will become PM.

Where is he going to find 76 seats?

his party + VVD might have 63 seats according to the polls lol.

[DavidB.]

It's still extremely unlikely that Wilders will truly become PM (and even that the PVV will be in government) but it is also true that he currently has his best shot ever.

In the event that the VVD manages to piss off the very demographic that voted them into office in 2012 -- lower middle class and middle class suburbanites -- even more with a tone-deaf campaign, many of those people could absolutely vote PVV. And if the PVV becomes the largest party by a big margin (say they win 39 and the VVD win 20; given current polling there's no reason to assume this is impossible) and the electoral landscape is incredibly divided, Wilders will have the initiative to form a government, and if, in that case, the VVD only wins about 20 seats it is very hard to see how Rutte can stay on. A Zijlstra-led VVD would perhaps make entirely different strategic choices and it is not as if the liberals care that much anyway (in 2010 they surely didn't), so they would probably be okay with a PVV-VVD government. Then the story becomes much more difficult, but other parties will realize it is either that or a terrible centrist coalition with 5+ parties which will leave them all less popular and will only make the PVV even stronger. 50Plus and the SGP could come around pretty easily, and then it's all about the CDA (which would "ensure" -- with tons of caveats -- a majority in the Senate too), which will be much more difficult. But these three parties do not have to be in government. They only have to ensure the government won't be brought down / would have to be willing to vote for the budget. It is still extremely unlikely, but it could happen if the VVD's campaign is bad. Of course, such a coalition would be able to change very little in terms of actual policy because of the influence of the CDA. Expect symbolism galore.

Still a long way to go. Last election SP was in a similar position around this time.

This is always a good thing to remember, yes.

[windjammer]

What is exactly the CDA?