Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: coalition agreement presented

[SunSt0rm]

Exit polls in 10 minutes

Most important is whether the 30% threshold will be reached, its going to be Too Close to Call

[Tender Branson]

I'd vote "Yes".

But I'm not sure if the voters will back it.

My prediction:

53% Yes
47% No

32% Turnout.

[SunSt0rm]

Exit Poll

Turnout 29%

For 36%
Against 64%

[Angel of Death]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Participation_criterion#Quorum_requirements

[DavidB.]

Turnout in ipsos exit poll adjusted to 32%.

Finished counting myself. Huge no victory in affluent municipality. Immediately knew this was going to be a landslide.

[DavidB.]

10.9% counted.

36.8% for
62.5% against

Turnout: 32.8%

[DavidB.]

30.8% counted.

37.5% for
61.7% against

Turnout: 31.8%

[DavidB.]

Turnout figure includes Rotterdam, excludes Utrecht, The Hague and Amsterdam. Might dip under 30% if these are included. Turnout in Noord-Brabant seems low too.

[DavidB.]

51.2% counted.

37.8% for
61.4% against

Turnout: 32.3%

[DavidB.]

Amsterdam is in, turnout still over 32%. If I were the NOS and this would be the US, I'd call it.

[DavidB.]

79.5% counted.

37.7% for
61.5% against

Turnout: 32.3%

[DavidB.]

pretty sure i'm making these posts for myself right now, but i'm quite enjoying myself doing so...

[Derpist]

No, I'm reading them. Congratulations to the Dutch!

[Beezer]

So am I. Thanks for the insights. Is there any life in a possible Nexit campaign?

[DavidB.]

99.8% counted.

38.1% for
61.1% against

Turnout: 32.2%

It's a done deal.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Probably the stupidest referendum I ever had chance to notice.

[PetrSokol]

Thanks for excelentní coverage!

[DavidB.]

Done. Same as with 99.8%.

[DavidB.]

Thanks for excelentní coverage!

Thank you kindly! Glad people read this

[DavidB.]

No, I'm reading them. Congratulations to the Dutch!

Thanks very much!

So am I. Thanks for the insights. Is there any life in a possible Nexit campaign?

Thank you, Beezer! Such a campaign could be viable, even if I think it wouldn't have a majority (we are much more dependent on trade than the British, simply because we're so small), but it is not possible under the referendum law. But if the UK domino falls, who knows...

[DavidB.]

Probably the stupidest referendum I ever had chance to notice.

You guys had a referendum about your electoral system for the general election that got 15% turnout and was ignored two weeks later in the actual general election, right?

[reciprocity]

The turnout is a bit disappointing even if it was just a referendum... I wonder because it was just a few points over 30% that the gov't would just go ahead and ratify the treaty anyway.

[DavidB.]

Anyway, some drunk #analysis:

Amsterdam and Utrecht, the two progressive big cities, voted for. Rotterdam and The Hague, the two large cities that still have a sizeable white working class population, voted against. No surprise there.

In the end, this referendum was saved by turnout in Amsterdam. At 6PM it was barely over 13%, yet at 9PM it was 26,8%.

All municipalities except for Amsterdam + Utrecht + some uni towns + socialist Groningen villages + rich Utrecht suburbs + rich Arnhem suburbs voted against. Turnout was lowest in Amsterdam, Rotterdam, The Hague and Noord-Brabant province (in the last case, I don't know why, except for the usual stuff, but still doesn't explain why turnout was okay in Limburg). See here. Will try to come up with something tomorrow.

[DavidB.]

The turnout is a bit disappointing even if it was just a referendum... I wonder because it was just a few points over 30% that the gov't would just go ahead and ratify the treaty anyway.

Quite some potential yes voters stayed home in order to prevent turnout from reaching the threshold. I don't expect the government to take the result seriously, and there will be whining about the turnout figure, but the government cannot just ratify it. That would clearly be too much, especially since the PvdA promised to abide by the result (if >30% turnout). I expect the treaty to be changed somewhat, just like the European Constitution became the Treaty of Lisbon by dropping some irrelevant, controversial things. It won't really matter. But if the UK leaves successfully, we will be in pole position to follow.

[reciprocity]

The turnout is a bit disappointing even if it was just a referendum... I wonder because it was just a few points over 30% that the gov't would just go ahead and ratify the treaty anyway.

Quite some potential yes voters stayed home in order to prevent turnout from reaching the threshold. I don't expect the government to take the result seriously, and there will be whining about the turnout figure, but the government cannot just ratify it. That would clearly be too much, especially since the PvdA promised to abide by the result (if >30% turnout). I expect the treaty to be changed somewhat, just like the European Constitution became the Treaty of Lisbon by dropping some irrelevant, controversial things. It won't really matter. But if the UK leaves successfully, we will be in pole position to follow.

Ah, thanks. I wonder what could be changed though? Does the agreement allow for visa-free access? I guess that would be changed to be more restrictive.