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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: Virginiá)
  2016: Clinton v. Bush v. Sanders v. Trump
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Author Topic: 2016: Clinton v. Bush v. Sanders v. Trump  (Read 5207 times)
Yelnoc
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« on: July 19, 2015, 08:41:31 am »
« edited: July 19, 2015, 09:09:32 am by Yelnoc »

Assume Sanders and Trump both run successful insurgency candidacies, but fall just short at the convention. Perhaps Hillary relies on super-delegates to overturn a delegate count favorable to Sanders. For whatever reason, both Sanders and Trump decide to launch independent candidacies. They manage to get on the ballot in all 50 states. What does this election look like?

I would expect Hillary and Sanders to split the black vote about 60-40, and the Hispanic vote to be split about in thirds by them and Jeb. Sanders to max out the liberal activist base, Trump to max out the low-information/poor white voter. Hillary and Jeb vying for the remaining whites. Draw a map with this scenario.

Here's my map, for fun.



214 Hillary
209 Bush
58 Sanders
57 Trump
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ScottieF
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« Reply #1 on: July 19, 2015, 01:11:27 pm »



Hillary 274
Jeb 214
Bernie 29
Trump 21
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JonathanSwift
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« Reply #2 on: July 21, 2015, 10:13:52 pm »


Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (D-NY) / Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA): 34%; 300 Electoral Votes
Former Governor Jeb Bush (R-FL) / Senator Mike Lee (R-UT): 32%; 233 Electoral Votes
Senator Bernie Sanders (G-VT) / Mayor Gayle McLaughlin (G-CA): 15%; 5 Electoral Votes
Businessman Donald Trump (I-NY) / Author Wayne Allyn Root (I-NV): 17%; 0 Electoral Votes
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NerdyBohemian
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« Reply #3 on: July 24, 2015, 12:48:12 pm »

I don't know why all of you think RI would vote for Sanders over Hillary.
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Cath
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« Reply #4 on: July 24, 2015, 01:40:47 pm »

Probably something like this.
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Hydera
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« Reply #5 on: July 24, 2015, 04:20:12 pm »

Copied from my other post.




Hillary Clinton - VP: Julian Castro (D) : 244 EV's  : 38.78%

Scott Walker/Jeb Bush? - VP: Rand Paul (R) : 256 EV's  : 36.52%

Donald Trump - Ted Cruz (Independent-Right) :13%

Bernie Sanders - Elizabeth Warren (Independent-Left + Greens) : 9.2%

Tossup:  Florida : 29 EV's Deciding state : Despite a strong showing amongst Hispanics for Hillary Clinton, Left-wing fireband Alan Grayson stumps massively for Bernie Sanders in key democrat strongholds in Urban minority cities. Meanwhile Trump takes support of many conservative republicans and moderate suburbanites. This would be either a GOP win of 0.01-2% or a Democrat win of 0.01-1%.

  Nevada : 6 EV's : Close race between Clinton and the generic GOP candidate. Hillary ticket had a huge resurgence in latino support due to the nomination of Julian Castro as VP. However the poor economy that has yet to recover from the crash of the housing bubble along with a sizeable Mormon voterbase and centre-right suburbanites causes Nevada to be a tossup.

Vermont: 3 EV's : Progressive anger at the Democratic mainstream leadership causes a sizable showing for native son Bernie Sanders. Lots of Republicans come home from voting for Trump, at the prospect of winning this state with Generic GOP candidate visiting with Rand Paul to mount an upset.   (D) 30-39% (R) 30-39% (Sanders) 20-25%  (Other+Trump) 10-15%

Crappy Background story: Despite a 2016 election promising to be a Mainstream Democrat vs Mainstream Republican. Conservative anger at the GOP establishment and Left-wing Anger at the Democrat establishment for failure to implement party agendas after being elected and a distrust of perceived "One Party centrism" between the moderate wings of both parties causes a rise in support for Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders to rise. Much to the relief of the party heads. Trump's success in the conservative heartland does not threaten chances of a GOP victory as many republicans on election day went home in crucial swing states to cause a tight election.  Meanwhile Bernie Sanders is blamed for allowing the lost of many states that Obama had won in 2012. Overall an interesting four way race between Center-right, Center-left, Ultra-right and Far-left. Produces the highest turnout the nation has seen in nearly a century as statsified ideological partisans cast their first time vote.

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Indy Texas
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« Reply #6 on: July 26, 2015, 12:30:15 am »

Assume Sanders and Trump both run successful insurgency candidacies, but fall just short at the convention. Perhaps Hillary relies on super-delegates to overturn a delegate count favorable to Sanders. For whatever reason, both Sanders and Trump decide to launch independent candidacies. They manage to get on the ballot in all 50 states. What does this election look like?

I would expect Hillary and Sanders to split the black vote about 60-40, and the Hispanic vote to be split about in thirds by them and Jeb. Sanders to max out the liberal activist base, Trump to max out the low-information/poor white voter. Hillary and Jeb vying for the remaining whites. Draw a map with this scenario.

Here's my map, for fun.



214 Hillary
209 Bush
58 Sanders
57 Trump

I don't know why you would give TN/KY/WV/SC to Trump: the South is extremely inhospitable to third party candidates in general - Perot, Anderson, Nader, etc. (Wallace's "I'm a Democrat but I hate black people as much as you do" candidacy doesn't really count.) He would probably overperform in places like Montana and Alaska, though.

I don't know why all of you think RI would vote for Sanders over Hillary.

Yeah, Rhode Island is the sort of place that would vote for Dick Cheney for president if he were the Democratic candidate.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #7 on: July 26, 2015, 03:15:48 pm »

Assume Sanders and Trump both run successful insurgency candidacies, but fall just short at the convention. Perhaps Hillary relies on super-delegates to overturn a delegate count favorable to Sanders. For whatever reason, both Sanders and Trump decide to launch independent candidacies. They manage to get on the ballot in all 50 states. What does this election look like?

I would expect Hillary and Sanders to split the black vote about 60-40, and the Hispanic vote to be split about in thirds by them and Jeb. Sanders to max out the liberal activist base, Trump to max out the low-information/poor white voter. Hillary and Jeb vying for the remaining whites. Draw a map with this scenario.

Here's my map, for fun.



214 Hillary
209 Bush
58 Sanders
57 Trump

I don't know why you would give TN/KY/WV/SC to Trump: the South is extremely inhospitable to third party candidates in general - Perot, Anderson, Nader, etc. (Wallace's "I'm a Democrat but I hate black people as much as you do" candidacy doesn't really count.) He would probably overperform in places like Montana and Alaska, though.

I don't know why all of you think RI would vote for Sanders over Hillary.

Yeah, Rhode Island is the sort of place that would vote for Dick Cheney for president if he were the Democratic candidate.

Rhode Island is just such an anomaly.  Demographically, it looks like it should be Catholic Oklahoma, but Democrats show no signs of losing support there.
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NerdyBohemian
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« Reply #8 on: July 26, 2015, 05:21:23 pm »


Quote
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Yeah, Rhode Island is the sort of place that would vote for Dick Cheney for president if he were the Democratic candidate.
[/quote]

Yep. Last November the state voted for a female Mitt Romney for governor and the states largest anti-public education advocate for lieutenant governor just because they had a D next to their names.
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