Gravis-NV Heck has large advantage

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Keep in mind that Nevada voters almost elected that loathsome disgrace Shelley Berkley to the Senate. If she can come so close to beating an incumbent, I'm not so sure that Heck will have an easy time winning this seat. Ugh, NV Democrats are awful.

Heller was an interim Incumbent, which is basically not really an incumbent.

Not as far as predicting elections goes. They have about the same win/loss records as people running for open seats.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Is there any data to show how well appointed incumbents do compared to actual incumbents?  Neither Heller nor Berkley had been on the ballot statewide before.  Berkley probably had an advantage because her district was so overpopulated at the time so she was representing more voters.

Larry Sabato had something about it when he was talking about the 2014 Montana Senate race right after John Walsh was appointed to the seat, but I don't remember how in-depth it got.