Japan 2024: Tokyo Governor election with possible snap election

[jaichind]

More by-election polls come in confirming the CDP lead on all 3

Tokyo's 15th polls are the most fun.    This time without the LDP backing anyone openly the same anti-LDP chaos that reigns in some seats on how the anti-LDP vote is supposed to consolidate is now taking place where the anti-CDP vote does not know how to consolidate or even which candidate is in the best position to take on the CDP (JRP, CPJ or pro-TPFA)







The go2senkyo poll in Tokyo 15th has it broken out by voter type

LDP voters: CPJ > JRP > pro-TPFA Ind.
KP: 50% are for pro-TPFA Ind. (I guess this is due to an appeal by Governor Koike) > JRP
CDP: 80% for CDP, 10% for pto-TPFA
JRP: 50% for JRP > pro-TPFA
Ind. CDP > CPJ > JRP > ex-CDP Upper House MP > Pro-TPFA

So the main issue is the LDP and KP voters are not consolidating around one anti-CDP candidate leading to an easy win by the CDP.

[jaichind]

JPY fell beyond the 155 level.  There might be an intervention from BOJ.

The fall of JPY is purely a function of the rise of USA interest rates.  The right thing to do is for BOJ to raise rates as well but that will blow up the fiscal bomb.

[jaichind]

https://news.yahoo.co.jp/pickup/6499226

Both Kishida and the CDP leader Izumi  will be in Shimane 1st tomorrow for the last day of the campaigning before the by-election.

[jaichind]

My prediction of the 3 by-elections.   CDP wins all 3 but underperforms pre-election polls in Tokyo 15th.

Tokyo 15th   (CDP underperforms but still wins, pro-TPFA outperforms)
CDP                                26
JRP                                 21
Pro-TPFA                         20
CPJ                                 14
ex-CDP Upper House MP     9
Disgraced LDP ex-MP         6
DIY                                  3


Shimane 1st
CDP                                53
LDP                                47


Nagasaki 3rd
CDP                               68
JRP                                32

[jaichind]

One more Shimane 1st poll has the CDP ahead


The poll has the CDP candidate winning a good part of the LDP and KP vote while completely sweeping the CDP and JCP vote as well as the large majority of the lean opposition independent vote.

[Logical]

Turnout for Tokyo 15th.

https://www.city.koto.lg.jp/610102/kuse/senkyo/kekka/shugingin/20240428/touhyou.html

[jaichind]

Tokyo 15th turnout vs 2021