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  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  VA-PPP: Clinton leads all Republicans; good numbers for Sanders as well (search mode)
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Author Topic: VA-PPP: Clinton leads all Republicans; good numbers for Sanders as well  (Read 3072 times)
pbrower2a
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Posts: 22,064
United States


« on: July 16, 2015, 06:10:40 pm »

The Republican numbers among 18-29 year olds are awful.


Republicans have little to offer the young-adult vote.  This age group gives President Obama 58% approval, which is decidedly above the approval rates for other, older voters. This age group might be more minority than other generations, but not that much more. I see no reason to believe that Virginia is significantly more D than the rest of America. Virginia is close to being the likely tipping-point state in 2016, and in view of the state straddling regions of America (Northeast urban America, Appalachia, and the Old South) it is a fairly-good microcosm of America; Florida and Ohio are the others. 

Should the young-adult vote vote as it did in 2008 and in large numbers nationwide, then the GOP is in big trouble nationwide. There is no new source of right-wing voters. Although Virginia has no Senate seats in play, we can readily see trouble for Republicans holding onto the Senate... and quite a few House seats. If Republicans lose lots of even to R+5 seats they then lose the House.
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pbrower2a
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Posts: 22,064
United States


« Reply #1 on: July 19, 2015, 08:54:45 am »

The Republican numbers among 18-29 year olds are awful.


Contrary to whatever pbrower is spouting, I think this phenomenon may be even worse in Virginia. I can't see these numbers at the moment, but there was a poll that has like 20-25% of them going for Sarvis (L) in the Senate race. May not have been accurate at tge end of the day, but the young may be exceptionally socially liberal there.

Spouting?

Here's how PPP sees Virginia, at least on approval or disapproval of President Obama, one of the more obvious left-right divides in America

Age       Approval/ Disapproval

18-29    58/31
30-45    48/45
46-65    45/52
over 65 41/55

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_VA_71615.pdf

I can't say that other states go as Virginia does. Virginia will obviously be troublesome for Republicans for the next few years, at the least. I have seen suggestions of much the same in other states. Virginia could be 'worse' in that respect than other states.
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pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,064
United States


« Reply #2 on: July 19, 2015, 02:46:09 pm »

Contrast another state, Michigan, that leans D:

Obama Approval/Disapproval by age:

overall 44-49
18-29  49-41
30-45  40-53
46-65  44-48
over 65 44-51

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_MI_6302015.pdf
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