Tightrope - A Timeline

[Potus]

FIRST REPUBLICAN IN: THE TRUMP BUMP INCOMING!

Jan. 13th

Real estate magnate and celebrity billionaire Donald Trump was the first candidate to declare his candidacy for the Republican nomination. Trump, who has a sketchy ideological past and a history of inflammatory comments, is pledging to fund his own campaign with, as he calls it, "my very, very large pile of money." However, Trump has established a PAC to allow donors loyal to the Donald to support candidates and officials across the country who support Trump's campaign.

Trump's announcement speech is one of the longest on record. His campaign theme, a throwback to the Reagan era, is to "make America great again" by renegotiating trade deals, ending illegal immigration, and managing Washington's money to pay off the national debt.

As someone who flirted with a presidential campaign in 2012 but later turned down the opportunity "to make more money rather than spend money," there is little recent polling data on the now-candidate.

[Potus]

Thank you for avoiding you-know-who.

Pretty sure you want to save those thanks.

[Bigby]

Thank you for avoiding you-know-who.

Pretty sure you want to save those thanks.

I just went from "thank you" to " you."

[Potus]

GOP Insiders wave away concerns over Trump.

This morning, I met with several Republican campaign operatives familiar with the primary process. One of them dismissed Trump's presidential campaign as "fundamentally unserious" while another referred to it as a "steam engine." When asked for clarification, the operative said, "that means it's running on a whole lot of hot air." With Romney seemingly not running, the chaotic Republican primary field has been shaken to its core by the Donald. The insiders, however, insist that the Trumpquake is merely a media phenomenon.

Shortly after the meeting, CNN released a poll that contradicted conventional wisdom. Trump has claimed the lead in a divided Republican field with the following results:

Trump...21%
Bush...18%
Walker..10%
Rubio...10%
Huckabee...9%
Christie...6%
Cruz...5%
Perry...4%
Fiorina..1%

[Emperor Charles V]

I just started reading now this and I have to say, this is amazing!

How does the House look? How many more seats does the GOP have after 2014?

[Potus]

"I have them quaking in their cheap, faux leather boots," Trump says.

As the 2016 campaign enters the month of September, all the oxygen in the room is now going to fuel the Trump fire that's raged for months. After  months of intense conflict with members of the media and controversy over Trump's policy stances, it seems like the other contenders in the field are unable to suppress the Trump Bump. There is a growing faction of voters who are displeased with the path President Obama and Congressional leaders on both sides of the aisle have taken the United States, but are deeply turned off by the loud, bombastic anger of Trump. These people, dissatisfied with Washington but seeking a more traditional, resolute type of candidate, have flocked to an unlikely leader: former neurosurgeon Ben Carson.

Trump's campaign has said they're glad the Donald has shaken up what would otherwise be a "totally uninspiring, totally low-energy" campaign. CNN's latest poll confirms that ongoing shake up:

Trump...27%
Carson..15%
Cruz...10%
Bush...10%
Huckabee...7%
Rubio...6%
Walker..5%
Fiorina..4%
Paul...4%
Christie...3%
Perry...3%

[Potus]

Romney: I don't know why they fear Trump.

Governor Mitt Romney, who took a leave of absence from the highly successful Romney Foundation at the beginning of August, made his fifth appearance on multiple Sunday shows since the leave of absence was announced.

Romney was critical of the Republican field's "lack of courage" in standing up for the principles of the Republican Party against Donald Trump. Romney said free trade, low taxes, and responsible leadership are all values that Trump's dominance places in grave jeopardy. "The common denominator between all of those bullied by Trump is simple," the Governor told Fox's Chris Wallace, "they refuse to double down and stand by their words. They retreat."

There have been whispers among many donors, operatives, and conservative columnists that Romney, known for his stance as an immigration hawk in the 2008 and 2012 primaries, could be the perfect mainstream challenger to Donald Trump. Alongside Romney's business credentials, he has never been viewed as a creature of Washington by most Americans.

The public, especially Republicans, have a favorable opinion of Governor Romney, who a narrow majority say was wrongly denied the White House in the 2012 election.

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney?
Favorable... 54%
Unfavorable...38%

[Potus]

What could have been, will be.

Former Republican nominee Mitt Romney announced his third bid for the White House earlier today. Romney laid out his vision of what he called a "strong, free, and fair America" that will serve as the bedrock of his campaign.

Romney's entrance into the race comes at a time perfectly poised to stop Donald Trump from continuing his seemingly unstoppable momentum. Romney is expected to eat into Trump's business support, as well as the more traditional elements of the other candidates' coalitions.

Romney...31%
Trump...20%
Carson...10%
Cruz...7%
Bush...6%
Rubio...5%
Paul...4%
Walker...3%
Christie...2%
Perry...2%

[Potus]

Iowa Headed to Recount

Former Governor Mitt Romney and businessman Donald Trump are locked in a legal fight over the outcome of the Iowa Caucus with Romney just 2 votes ahead on caucus night. Both teams declared victory and are heading to New Hampshire where Romney presently leads by 6 points.

Current Iowa Results

Romney...29%
Trump...29%
Carson...16%
Paul...8%
Cruz...6%
Bush...5%
Rubio...4%
Christie...3%

[Potus]

Romney Romps, Earns Endorsements from the Field

"Time to end the primary and defeat the Democrats," Romney says.

GOP's all-WTA Map at conclusion of primary season:

Mitt Romney: 56% of total votes, 1,535 delegates
Donald Trump: 28% of total votes, 608 delegates
Other: 16% of total votes, 330 delegates

Republicans have successfully weathered a divisive primary campaign. Mitt Romney is the presumptive nominee and backed by virtually all of the party infrastructure. The Romney operation is quickly approaching an announcement regarding a vice presidential nominee.

The primary campaign was marked by Romney's quick consolidation of traditional Republican voters after victories in Iowa and New Hampshire. Mr. Trump pressed on with a populist, anti-establishment message but was unable to overcome concerns regarding his temperament and positions on core policy issues. Public polling also greatly helped Romney's case by showing him consistently beating Democrats in head-to-head matchups. Trump's best case scenario, on the other hand, had him up a point or two.

Businessman Donald Trump has refused to release his delegates, but publicly acknowledged the reality that delegates in Cleveland would nominate Romney. He has refused to rule out an independent run for President in the fall, though filing deadlines would prevent him from attaining the 270 electoral college votes necessary to be elected President.

[Potus]

O’Captain, My Captain

"We’ve accomplished so much, yet they will defend so little."

President Barack Obama’s second term has been generally regarded as a disaster. Abroad, the President’s would-be signature foreign policy achievement, a nuclear detente with Iran, was shredded by the Republican majority in 2015 after secret conversations with then-Russian President Dmitry Medvedev were leaked. The conversations suggested Hillary Clinton’s replacement as Secretary of State occurred in order to usher in an outright uranium sale to the Russians.

On the domestic front, Obamacare is in ruins from an aggressive Republican legal strategy. Premiums on the exchange are spiraling out of control and enrollment in the exchanges are holding at a stubborn 7 million people. The CBO re-evaluated its baseline statistics for healthcare and the deficit, suggesting the law is adding to the national debt with little change in health outcomes. The President instituted, via executive order, new wage controls on any company with federal contracts leading to higher prices for government work and layoffs throughout much of the defense and other industries.

The President’s political standing is significantly worsened by the Medvedev tapes. Personal venom between President Obama and his party’s then-presumptive frontrunner blew up the entire primary process. There were large-scale resignations from the Obama White House leading to no forward momentum on legislative priorities.

[Jaguar4life]

Nice to see this resume

[Mike Thick]

It's back! Glorious news!

[Potus]

Democrats Deadlocked

"The revolution is now."

Hillary Clinton: 31% of total votes, 1,731 delegates
Joe Biden: 34% of total votes, 1,676 delegates
Bernie Sanders: 26% of total votes, 1,312 delegates
Other: 9% of total votes 45 delegates

The race for the Democratic nomination has ended in a divided convention. Vice President Joe Biden, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and Senator Bernie Sanders have driven deep divisions into the party.

The primary was on track to be a disaster when Romney, the Republican's greatest prosecutor of President Obama's agenda, ethics, and legacy, entered the race for the Republican nomination. Before that point, it looked as though Clinton was on track to claim the nomination on Super Tuesday against marginal progressive opposition. Romney’s entrance into the race coincided with the release of the career-demolishing Medvedev tapes. Hillary Clinton publicly broke with the President, condemning his foreign policy while criticizing his passage of a “swiss-cheese healthcare bill” that couldn’t hold up to a Republican lawsuit. She assumed a vehemently anti-Russian stance on the campaign trail and promise to replace Obamacare with a workable set of healthcare reforms, such as tight out-of-pocket cost caps, a highly subsidized national insurance pool, and the establishment of a new round of health insurance co-ops.

Vice President Biden came to the defense of his friend by announcing a run of his own. His campaign hit the ground running pledging to revive an old electoral coalition long-thought dead. “We are the party that achieved healthcare reform. We’re fighting for workers just like FDR,” he said many on the trail. Biden offered a personable alternative to a publicly angry Clinton, as well as a full-throated defense of the Obama Administration.

Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont has run an aggressive, left-wing campaign to rewrite the Democratic Party orthodoxy. With an outright call for a 10% tax on all national income, he pledged to deliver free healthcare and education to every American. He gave full-throttle endorsements to the causes of new infrastructure, energy, and social services funding across the country. For the first time in a long time, the Democrats had a truly unapologetically left-wing candidate.

[Potus]

Romney-Haley 2016

"Gov. Haley is a trailblazing, courageous conservative," Romney says.

After much speculation and a long vetting process, Mitt Romney has chosen South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley to be the next Vice President of the United States.

In her first speech, three weeks ahead of the Republican National Convention in Cleveland, Haley made her role on the campaign clear. "Mitt Romney is a man of character, integrity, and decency. For someone who's built a beautiful family and many successful businesses, he's also remarkably humble. One of my favorite things about him is how hard it is for him to brag about those things," she said. Haley continued along that line saying that Romney's character distinguished him from the failing Democrats. "He's the most talented person I know," she said.

"With so much at stake, we need a President committed to our values, able and willing to fight battles for the American people, and lead us with the perfect mix of competence and character. That's why Mitt Romney must be the next President of the United States," she continued.

With the convention three weeks away and the primary in the rear view mirror, the Romney campaign is confident that he has proven himself to the party faithful and is ready to draw a distinction between himself and his eventual Democrat opponent. With President Obama at such a dismal approval rating, Romney is in a strong position to contrast with the entirety of the Democrat Party.

[Potus]

Do you approve or disapprove of President Obama's job as President?
Approve......32%
Disapprove.....59%

Do you agree or disagree with impeaching President Obama for his secret conversations with Russia about uranium sales?
24%...Strongly Agree
27%...Somewhat Agree
22%...Somewhat Disagree
20%...Strongly Disagree
7%...Undecided

DEMS ONLY: If you had to choose, which of the three remaining candidates do you support for the Democratic Nomination for President?
37% Joe Biden
35% Hillary Clinton
28% Bernie Sanders

DEMS ONLY: If your choices for the Democratic nomination were between Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders, and someone else, who would you support?
28%...Joe Biden
25%...Hillary Clinton
24%...Bernie Sanders
23%...Someone else

If the election were today and the candidates were Republican Mitt Romney and Democrat Joe Biden, who would you support?
52%...Mitt Romney
44%...Joe Biden
4%..Undecided

If the election were today and the candidates were Republican Mitt Romney and Democrat Hillary, who would you support?
51%...Mitt Romney
40%...Hillary Clinton
9%...Undecided

If the election were today and the candidates were Republican Mitt Romney and Democrat Bernie Sanders, who would you support?
49%...Mitt Romney
38%...Bernie Sanders
13%...Undecided

Should Donald Trump run for President as an Independent?
16%...Yes
68%...No
14%...Undecided

[Potus]

FLASHBACK

"I didn't betray our President, you did."

At joint NBC-Facebook primary debate between Biden, Clinton, and Sanders:

Clinton: Thank you for the question, I get this one a lot. People ask me how a Democrat is supposed to be elected after 8 years of a Democrat in the White House. They ask me how the President's standing in the polls has affected any of the three of us being elected-

Interrupting Biden: Why do you think that is, Hillary? *cross talk* Why do you think that is? Why are the President's poll numbers bad? *cross talk* I'm asking YOU, why?

Clinton: The President is where he is because he had some misguided conversations with the Russ-

Interrupting Biden: Malarkey! *cross talk* Malarkey! The President has taken a few too many blows because Democrats have abandoned him!

Interrupting Clinton: Who's fault is that, Joe?

Angry Biden: "I didn't betray our President, Hillary, you did."

[Potus]

Excerpts from Sanders victory speech the night he won the New Hampshire primary:

"Our movement has come a long, long way. With each day, especially after tonight, our movement adds more and more Democrats, Independents, and Republicans, and Americans from all walks of life. More and more people from across the country join us in calling for a country that will take care of its people. Healthcare is a right. Education is a right. Clean air and jobs and a bright future are rights. We are, as Americans, finally standing up for things we know are ours, and we're taking them."

"We are going to win because our vision of the future is better than the other campaigns. But the other campaigns are offering something that Democrats don't want any of, more personal politics between two candidates representing the same team of bankers, Wall Street millionaires, and well-connected corporate cronies. I've fought for eight years to get the President to commit to real healthcare reform and he won't. I don't dislike him, but I wish he'd pass health care for all sooner rather than later! Secretary Clinton has taken her personal issues with Vice President Biden and the President very public and she has carved out new stances on issues that are worrisome for our cause. If Hillary Clinton is President, we will never get healthcare for all. We will never get free college for all. We will never get the country the thousands of people here want to see become reality."

[Potus]

THE EMAILS

"What? Like with a cloth?"

Stephanie Cutter: Anderson, you have Bob Woodward in all of the papers this morning comparing the Clinton email scandal to Watergate. The Vice President has refrained from that kind of talk because, as far as he's concerned, this is an ongoing FBI investigation and he's a heartbeat away from the Presidency. He's not going to engage in that kind of talk, but people are!

James Carville: Are you done? That's a load of bull, Stephanie, and the American people know it. Your campaign- *cross talk* Your campaign has the closest ties to the Obama Administration, which right now it feels like half the building is under investigation- *cross talk*

Cutter: Nonsense, there is no criminal investigation of the White House or the President. The Vice President is not under investigation. *cross talk* Secretary Clinton lied to the Democratic voters when she told them there was no investigation-

Interrupting Carville: It's made up! It ain't true! It ain't true! *cross talk*

Interrupting Cutter: Did the Secretary knowingly send classified information on an unsecured server? *crosstalk* Did she?

Cooper: This isn't productive, stop interrupting. *cross talk* Stop. Okay, I want to direct that question to James. As far as you know, did Secretary Clinton knowingly send classified information from her unsecured email server?

Carville: Anderson, I've said it and said it, she's said it time and again, no. She has no knowledge of anything like that, she didn't do the things the Vice President and his campaign are accusing him of. Period. She didn't. They're trying to distract from the fact that Biden is part of an Administration that looks like it may go down, and that's a shame. I voted for the guy twice but the party has to move on or else Mitt Romney, or God help us Donald Trump, is gonna be President.

Cooper: That's a pretty definitive response, Stephanie. Last word to you.

Cutter:The Vice President isn't in charge of the FBI. The FBI are the ones investigating Secretary Clinton jeopardizing national security. I never thought I would hear James Carville, a good Democrat, say those things about a Democratic White House that passed healthcare reform and saved the country from the Great Recession.

Cooper: I'm going to have to stop you there, thank you all...

[erſatz-york]

Just got into this. Amazing TL! I especially liked how Ed Gillespie won VA-SEN in 2014.

Also, MA with two Republican senators!

[Potus]

The Rules Committee of the 2016 Democratic Convention saw a major rules amendment adopted two weeks before the convention. President Obama, Vice President Biden, and Senator Sanders agreed to push a new set of rules which would eliminate superdelegates and unbind pledged delegates after the first round deadlocks. Delegates would be free to cast their votes according to their conscience and open nominations for the Vice Presidential nomination, as well as the Presidential nomination, from the floor. The latter provision, open nominations, was added to the amendment to pacify the legislative committees. The DSCC and DCCC are staring a double digit at the top of the ticket in key battleground states and are looking to staunch the bleeding.

This rules amendment renders Clinton's delegate lead essentially irrelevant. Each team believes they have the advantage in a floor fight. Bernie supporters were, by far, the most energized when it came time for caucus states to send delegates to the convention. The Vice President has the clear support of the White House and the Obama loyalists left in the party. Clinton, however, enjoys support from Chairwoman Debbie Wasserman-Schultz and the other operatives at the DNC.

[Confused Democrat]

Rooting for Bernie to win this floor fight.

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

Let's go Hill! Can't wait to see how this ends up