pbrower2a
Atlas Star
Posts: 26,839
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« on: July 07, 2015, 05:59:14 AM » |
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1. North Carolina is already mentioned.
2. Indiana is not 'in the bag'. It is surrounded on three sides by states seeming to drift D. Turn Fort Wayne D, and Indiana is a swing state. Indiana is simply more rural than Indiana, Michigan, or Ohio.
3. Minnesota is simply inelastic. It's going to go 50-50 in a catastrophic year for Democrats, 52-48 in a 50-50 election, 55-45 in a good year for Democrats, and perhaps 57-43 in a Democratic landslide. I can imagine scenarios in which the Democratic nominee wins 60% of the popular vote and gets 58% of the popular vote in Minnesota.
4. NE-02 is a swing district.
5. I see Arizona getting increasingly dicey for the GOP. Arizona demographics are becoming more similar to those of California, Colorado, and New Mexico. Could it be that more of the Hispanics of Arizona are non-citizens unable to vote? When that changes, Arizona is trouble for any GOP nominee.
6. Republicans have been eking out some shaky wins in Georgia.
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