IA-Quinnipiac: D: Clinton 52% Sanders 33%; R: Walker 18% Carson 10% Trump 10%

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The would not support under an circumstances number is pretty bad for Bush (surprisingly higher than it is for Christie).  A reminder that despite running a good campaign so far, Bush has significant obstacles ahead of him.

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Walker is still the frontrunner even if he's slipped in national polls.

In Iowa and a couple of other states, but nationally? No.

National polls actually mean very little at this stage of the race.  A huge lead in national polls will evaporate into nothing if the candidate doesn't win Iowa or New Hampshire.

In the end, the nomination will come down to 2 or 3 people: the winners of Iowa, New Hampshire and possibly South Carolina, if a third candidate wins there.  Having a strong lead in one of those states (especially Iowa or New Hampshire) makes it more likely that candidate will be one of the final contenders.

 

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#Clintonunder60

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A 45% lead is down to 19% in just a few months ... she's inevitable !

With numbers like these you bet she is:

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Remember in 2000 Gore only led Bradley by single digits at various points in Iowa, but eventually turned out a 30 point victory. The same will happen here. People are flirting with the new liberal alternative, and Iowans have always wanted a competitive caucus. But all the numbers show that they love Hillary and when it really comes down to it in February they're going to vote for her as their standard bearer.

A black freshman Senator from Illinois with a funny name would like to have a word with you.

Sanders is no Obama.  In 2008, Obama was young, charismatic, and a rising star.  Sanders, to put it bluntly, is none of these.  Obama was also uniquely positioned to unite the white liberal activist wing of the party with African Americans, forming a winning coalition (and even then, it was a close thing).

So what is Sanders' path to victory?  Liberal whites aren't enough to win the nomination.  Latinos stuck with Clinton even in 2008 against Obama, I don't see them jumping ship for Sanders.  Moderate whites certainly aren't going to go for a Sanders candidacy.  It seems like African Americans might be his best chance, insofar that Sanders even has a chance.