How would've 2008 looked like if Obama were a white man?

[RR1997]

I think that Obama severly underperformed in 2008. We were in the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, two wars were going on that everyone hated,Palin was the GOP vice presidential nominee, a terrible Hurrican Katrina response by the Bush administration gave the GOP a bad image, Bush was incredibly unpopular, yet Obama only got 53% of the vote. Obama obviously underperfomed because he was black.

We all know that Obama probaby wouldn't have won the primaries if he were a white man because Obama's appeal to black voters is one of the the main reasons why he won the Dem. primaries. Let's  just say that Obama was a white man, and white Obama won the 2008 primaries. Everything happens like it did in real life. How does the map look like? IIRC, NYtimes (I think) estimated that Obama being black hurt him by 4 percentage points in both the 2008 and 2012 elections (I remember the article stating evidence behind this claim, but I can't find the article). This is how the map would've looked like if Obama gained 4 percentage points in 2008 (this is assuming a universal swing):

Barack Obama: 394 EV's, 57% of the popular vote
John McCain: 144 EV's, 42% of the popular vote

Interestingly, Obama would've BARELY lost Arizona (he would've lost this state by 0.5%!), South Carolina (he would've lost this state by 0.9% ), South Dakota (he would've lost this state by 0.4%!), and North Dakota (he would've lost this state by 0.6%!). Remember that Obama didn't even campaign in most of these states IRL, so Obama could've easily won these states in this scenario too :

Barack Obama: 418 EV's, 57% of the popular vote
John McCain: 120 EV's, 42% of the popular vote

I think the first map is much more realistic tho. I think the first map is how the 2008 election would've looked like if Obama were a white man. I could be wrong tho.

What do you guys think?

[Mr. Smith]

He wouldn't have won North Carolina, possibly lost Virginia, and won Missouri, Montana, and possibly Georgia

[YaBoyNY]

A much more important reason why 2008 wasn't a much larger blowout was McCain. He was probably the best possible candidate the Republicans had in 2008.

[Kingpoleon]

"If only Obama got that racist swing vote..."

[dudeabides]

Hillary Clinton would have been nominated for President and would have defeated John McCain by a similar margin to Obama's 53%-46% win over McCain.

[Mister Mets]

While there are racist voters who wouldn't go for a black man, it is worth noting the boost in African-American turnout.

It's easy to forget that McCain was a strong candidate. He wasn't a generic Republican.

[bagelman]

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I agree. In fact, I think Obama would have actually preformed less well if he was white because the idea of a black president generated enthusiasm among black voters, increasing voter turnout and making it 95%+ democratic. This rallying effect, the drive to make history, the greatest victory for civil rights in decades, is stronger than the reservations of certain misguided elderly voters who usually live in solid red states anyway.

Here's what I think a white Obama, Barry Owens, in '08 would look like:



As you can see, Barry Owens fails to tick up much support in the southeastern US, home to a large number of African Americans. He still wins the election of course because people wanted change in '08.

Notice how a grand total of one state shifts toward Owens that didn't go for Obama.

And in 2012:



√ Barry Owens / Joe Biden 272 EV

Mitt Romney / Paul Ryan 266 EV

[Kingpoleon]

Do we get to change the running mates?

I seriously doubt White Obama chooses an old white man from Delaware as his running-mate only for experience. I mean, I like Biden and all, but it seems unrealistic. If we can't change the running mates, I think bagelman is right.

If we can...

301 - 237

Barry Owens(D-IL)/Claire McCaskill(D-MO) - 52.6%
John McCain(R-AZ)/Gary Johnson(R-NM) - 46.1%
Other: 1.2%:
Mike Gravel(L-AK)/Ed Thompson(L-WI)

[Maxwell]

Yeah... this is retarded. McCain polled about 10 points better than any other Republican in the general election. It was obviously because McCain was the candidate.

[Agonized-Statism]

Senator John McCain (R-AZ) / Governor Sarah Palin (R-AZ)
Senator Barry O'Brien (D-IL) / Governor Kathleen Sebelius (D-KS) ✓

"ThE nExT kEnNeDy"