IA-Quinnipiac: D: Clinton 52% Sanders 33%; R: Walker 18% Carson 10% Trump 10%
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  IA-Quinnipiac: D: Clinton 52% Sanders 33%; R: Walker 18% Carson 10% Trump 10%
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Author Topic: IA-Quinnipiac: D: Clinton 52% Sanders 33%; R: Walker 18% Carson 10% Trump 10%  (Read 2123 times)
eric82oslo
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« Reply #25 on: July 02, 2015, 08:46:07 AM »

Sanders need to win both Iowa and New Hampshire in order to become a serious threat to Clinton, and even with two such early wins, he will still not turn into the frontrunner. However, were he to win South Carolina as well, that would change. Then he would probably be regarded as a slight frontrunner, though still ever so slight. If he were to win all the four early states however...then Hillary would be in serious trouble. Hillary simply can't afford to lose all four.
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Beet
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« Reply #26 on: July 02, 2015, 08:49:21 AM »

I think that's quite absurd. If Sanders wins Iowa and leads in New Hampshire, then he becomes the front-runner, let alone a serious threat. I would say he's already a serious threat to her.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #27 on: July 02, 2015, 08:51:37 AM »

Of course, one important element of Gore's comeback in 2000 was the fact that he went negative on Bradley:

link

Will Clinton follow suit, or will she ignore Sanders indefinitely?
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Mehmentum
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« Reply #28 on: July 02, 2015, 08:52:10 AM »

A 45% lead is down to 19% in just a few months ... she's inevitable !
With numbers like these you bet she is:
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Remember in 2000 Gore only led Bradley by single digits at various points in Iowa, but eventually turned out a 30 point victory. The same will happen here. People are flirting with the new liberal alternative, and Iowans have always wanted a competitive caucus. But all the numbers show that they love Hillary and when it really comes down to it in February they're going to vote for her as their standard bearer.

A black freshman Senator from Illinois with a funny name would like to have a word with you.
Sanders is no Obama.  In 2008, Obama was young, charismatic, and a rising star.  Sanders, to put it bluntly, is none of these.  Obama was also uniquely positioned to unite the white liberal activist wing of the party with African Americans, forming a winning coalition (and even then, it was a close thing).

So what is Sanders' path to victory?  Liberal whites aren't enough to win the nomination.  Latinos stuck with Clinton even in 2008 against Obama, I don't see them jumping ship for Sanders.  Moderate whites certainly aren't going to go for a Sanders candidacy.  It seems like African Americans might be his best chance, insofar that Sanders even has a chance.

 
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #29 on: July 02, 2015, 08:54:08 AM »
« Edited: July 02, 2015, 08:56:42 AM by eric82oslo »

I think that's quite absurd. If Sanders wins Iowa and leads in New Hampshire, then he becomes the front-runner, let alone a serious threat. I would say he's already a serious threat to her.

Disagree strongly. Hillary is still regarded as the strongest frontrunner in modern history. Very much will have to change for her frontrunner status to evaporate completely. Also Sanders is regarded by almost everyone who is not a Sanders groupie themself as close to 100% unelectable. That fact won't change (much, if any) even if he were to win both Iowa and New Hampshire.

Sanders is almost as unelectable as Trump or Ted Cruz in fact.
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Beet
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« Reply #30 on: July 02, 2015, 09:33:44 AM »

Obama never had this much non-primary generated momentum against Hillary. Never. A 26-point swing in 1 month. Because Obama never had much daylight between him and Hillary in terms of their positions. That primary came down to demographics because there was little else to talk about.

Bernie is different because he voted against the Patriot Act, wants to break up the banks, is against the TPP, and so on. All of these positions have become conventional orthodoxy within the Democratic base. So he's actually a stronger candidate against Clinton than Obama was because there's a clearer rationale for his anti-Clinton crusade.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #31 on: July 02, 2015, 09:41:02 AM »

Beet I like you but you get worried way too easily. Clinton will give Sanders a good thrashing in the debates, win Iowa by 30% and that'll be that.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #32 on: July 02, 2015, 10:32:48 AM »


Hillary fading!!!
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xavier110
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« Reply #33 on: July 02, 2015, 12:29:41 PM »

Beet I like you but you get worried way too easily. Clinton will give Sanders a good thrashing in the debates, win Iowa by 30% and that'll be that.

Except she's a horrible debater and Bernie will be able to set the tone and direction of the debate because he can stake out positions she cannot. She's only going to drop more in the early state polls.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #34 on: July 02, 2015, 12:32:29 PM »

Beet I like you but you get worried way too easily. Clinton will give Sanders a good thrashing in the debates, win Iowa by 30% and that'll be that.

Except she's a horrible debater and Bernie will be able to set the tone and direction of the debate because he can stake out positions she cannot. She's only going to drop more in the early state polls.

She proved in 2008 that she was an excellent debater. She was as good as Obama, sometimes even better than him.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #35 on: July 02, 2015, 01:45:44 PM »

Beet I like you but you get worried way too easily. Clinton will give Sanders a good thrashing in the debates, win Iowa by 30% and that'll be that.

Except she's a horrible debater and Bernie will be able to set the tone and direction of the debate because he can stake out positions she cannot. She's only going to drop more in the early state polls.

Exactly why a large majority of the Democratic debates ended up with Hillary winning in 2008. Bernie on stage will look more like Mike Gravel than Barack Obama.

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Eraserhead
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« Reply #36 on: July 02, 2015, 07:02:10 PM »

Yeah, I guess I'll go on record at this point and say that I think Sanders is probably going to win Iowa and New Hampshire. I think he'll still be trounced in South Carolina and eventually lose the nomination to Clinton but this is going to be a fight now.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #37 on: July 02, 2015, 07:13:19 PM »

Yeah, I guess I'll go on record at this point and say that I think Sanders is probably going to win Iowa and New Hampshire. I think he'll still be trounced in South Carolina and eventually lose the nomination to Clinton but this is going to be a fight now.
Digging your own grave here.
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The Mikado
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« Reply #38 on: July 02, 2015, 07:22:41 PM »

An Iowa result like Clinton 62%-Sanders 35% (Other 3%...sorry O'Malley) wouldn't really surprise me. It'd also be a pretty underwhelming night for Hillary Clinton...by all rights she should be beat Sanders by a lot more than 30% and it would really put a cramp in her narrative of unchallenged consensus voice of the Democratic Party if that big a chunk of Iowan Democrats went with someone else.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #39 on: July 02, 2015, 08:04:10 PM »

Yeah, I guess I'll go on record at this point and say that I think Sanders is probably going to win Iowa and New Hampshire. I think he'll still be trounced in South Carolina and eventually lose the nomination to Clinton but this is going to be a fight now.
Digging your own grave here.

lol, Am I?

It's just a prediction. There's of course a great chance that I'll be wrong and that Sanders will lose both states. But I did also predict that Obama would win Iowa back when he was struggling to overtake Bill Richardson for third place.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #40 on: July 02, 2015, 08:05:50 PM »

An Iowa result like Clinton 62%-Sanders 35% (Other 3%...sorry O'Malley) wouldn't really surprise me. It'd also be a pretty underwhelming night for Hillary Clinton...by all rights she should be beat Sanders by a lot more than 30% and it would really put a cramp in her narrative of unchallenged consensus voice of the Democratic Party if that big a chunk of Iowan Democrats went with someone else.

Just worry about Hillary winning Iowa. She's not going to win it by 30%.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #41 on: July 02, 2015, 08:15:21 PM »

What other Democratic candidates will still be in the race by the time Iowa votes, besides Clinton and Sanders?  Any of them?  Wonder if Clinton and/or Sanders tries to cut a deal with any of Chafee/O'Malley/Webb for their supporters in precincts where they're not viable, a la the Edwards/Kucinich deal from 2004:

http://edition.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/01/19/elec04.prez.edwards.kucinich/
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #42 on: July 02, 2015, 09:00:07 PM »

Retail politics is key in Iowa, and because of that, I expect to see folks like O'Malley and Webb spending a significant amount of time in the state, well more than Clinton AND Sanders. Granted, one of those two will win Iowa, but O'Malley and Webb are going to get a decent percentage.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #43 on: July 02, 2015, 09:04:42 PM »

Granted, one of those two will win Iowa, but O'Malley and Webb are going to get a decent percentage.

But because of how the caucuses work, getting ~5-10% support statewide means that you really end up getting ~1-2%.  You need 15% viability in a given precinct to reach viability, for your support to count.  Otherwise, your supporters have to reallocate to someone else.  That's why Richardson got 2%, Biden 1%, and Dodd 0% in 2008.  Many of their supporters had to reallocate to Edwards/Obama/Clinton.  2016 could be the same, with only Clinton and Sanders getting any support greater than a rounding error.
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