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  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/State Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, Virginiá)
  Hutchison Running for Gov?
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Author Topic: Hutchison Running for Gov?  (Read 2869 times)
nick
nickshepDEM
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« on: May 05, 2005, 12:17:17 pm »

Political Wire:

Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX) "is running an unorthodox primary challenge" to Texas Gov. Rick Perry (R), "refusing to speculate publicly about her intentions even as she privately prepares for the possibility of a bruising intraparty battle."

"Beyond stockpiling the necessary funds in what would likely be a primary race costing $20 million or more, Hutchison is also putting together a campaign team of sufficient size and expertise, which would be unnecessary if she were merely seeking re-election to the Senate."
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Joe Biden 2020
BushOklahoma
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« Reply #1 on: May 05, 2005, 12:33:19 pm »

If I were a Texan, I would vote for Kay.  She seems to be a very good senator and the Governor's Mansion would be a good fit for her and would be a good platform to jump from to a possible 2012 or 2016 run for the White House.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #2 on: May 05, 2005, 04:44:56 pm »

Hutchinson has now been talking about running for governor for at least a year.  I'm still waiting to see whether she wants to take that chance, and it is still a big chance.

Clearly the biggest problem Hutchinson would have is not the Democrat party challenger.  Rather, its the Republican, especially the pro-life establishment, which is very powerful in the state.  They are firmly in the back pocket of Perry and would support him over the pro-choice Hutchinson.

Simply put, Hutchinson, in order to win, will have to pull a McCain here and rely on the support independents and Democrats, as Texas has an open primary system, where any registered voter can vote in any one primary he or she wishes to.

My guess is that she's waiting to see three things:

1.  How Perry's approval ratings are and how she faces up to him in private polling.

2.  Whether any halfway decent Democrat candidates enter the race as to provide a primary battle from within the Democrat party.  This would draw away from potential primary supporters for Hutchinson.

3.  To see if Carole Keeton Rylander decides to enter the Republican primary as well.  Both are pro-choice and could therefore siphon away from each other's support.  Rylander won her last election with 65% of the vote and is also a strong candidate with a very loose mouth.

The question here is which Republican candidate wins the general election, not really whether the Democrats have a fighting chance.

If she leaves the Senate, I would expect the next Senator to be Henry Bonilla of San Antonio, though I'm sure there would be some hard-fought party challengers from inside the Republican Party.

About the only Democrats who I think can break 45% statewide are probably John Sharp and maybe the newcomer Henry Cuellar, both conservative Democrats and both that here in Maryland would labeled as far-right Republicans.  Tongue
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ian
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« Reply #3 on: May 05, 2005, 05:32:32 pm »

I didn't know Hutch was pro-choice.  Yeah, she's going down in the primaries then.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #4 on: May 05, 2005, 05:35:19 pm »

I didn't know Hutch was pro-choice.  Yeah, she's going down in the primaries then.

Not necessarily. 

She is very popular in Texas among all voters, but among primary GOP voters, the pro-choice stance will cause a problem, especially as Perry has the support of the major GOP bigwigs and his approval ratings have rebounded a lot this year.

She will need to get plenty of independents and Democrats to turn out and vote in the GOP primary if she wants to win.
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BushOklahoma
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« Reply #5 on: May 05, 2005, 07:23:46 pm »

Whoever ends up as Governor in January 2007, Rick Perry, Kay Hutch, or some other person.  This would give them a huge boost if they plan to seek higher office (i.e. White House) in 2012 or 2016.  Being the Chief Executive for the second-most populated state in the country is definitely a good spring board.  Just ask George W. Bush.
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M
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« Reply #6 on: May 05, 2005, 09:13:57 pm »

This is old news, but here's my take. First, what does Kay Bailey have to gain? If her goal is to be running mate in '08, not much. She woun't have time to prove herself as a governor, and will be leaving almost as soon as she arrives, which isn't smart. So when possibility is that she believes Hillary will win in '08, and in '12 she can lead the conservative charge to "take back the White House", at exactly the point into her governorship as GWB was when elected.

Perry is really a nonentity, with no charisma or particular vision. But he can present himself as the real conservative. The worst of it is that the losing camp- conservatives or Kay Baileyite moderates, may not vote en masse. (By Texas standards, she's very moderate, and with Bush the state's most popular political figure). Still, Bell's the biggest nobody of all and would likely lose; Martin Frost, Ken Bentsen, or even Bill White might have a better shot if the GOP really splits.

Strayhorn was, the talk goes, softening up Perry for her olf friend Kay Bailey for her attacks. She wants the Lieutenant Governor spot currently held by rich nonentity David Dewhurst. If Kay Bailey runs, he may want to be senator, but so will congressman and former San Antonia newscaster Henry Bonilla, who could be the GOP's second Hispanic and first Mexican senator.

If all these things come to pass, I will likely vote Hutchison, Strayhorn, and Bonilla. (Yes, I'm still registered to vote in Texas). And BTW, Perry could never, ever be president. We haven't had that little color in the White House since Harding, and at least he had a scandal.
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nick
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« Reply #7 on: May 05, 2005, 09:15:16 pm »

I know its old news guys, but I was'nt aware that she was acutally beefing with a new campaign staff.  Thats a solid sign that she is running.
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TX_1824
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« Reply #8 on: May 06, 2005, 09:49:11 pm »

Whoever ends up as Governor in January 2007, Rick Perry, Kay Hutch, or some other person.  This would give them a huge boost if they plan to seek higher office (i.e. White House) in 2012 or 2016.  Being the Chief Executive for the second-most populated state in the country is definitely a good spring board.  Just ask George W. Bush.

True, however the term "chief executive" is a very loose one when describing the power of the governor. The governor of Texas has very little power. Mainly just the power to appoint and act as represenative of Texas to meet with the likes of the president of Mexico, Vicente Fox. The true "cheif execuative" of Texas is the Lt. Governor, David Dewhurst.
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A18
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« Reply #9 on: May 06, 2005, 09:53:10 pm »

Whoever ends up as Governor in January 2007, Rick Perry, Kay Hutch, or some other person.  This would give them a huge boost if they plan to seek higher office (i.e. White House) in 2012 or 2016.  Being the Chief Executive for the second-most populated state in the country is definitely a good spring board.  Just ask George W. Bush.

True, however the term "chief executive" is a very loose one when describing the power of the governor. The governor of Texas has very little power. Mainly just the power to appoint and act as represenative of Texas to meet with the likes of the president of Mexico, Vicente Fox. The true "cheif execuative" of Texas is the Lt. Governor, David Dewhurst.

Um, he doesn't sign laws?
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #10 on: May 07, 2005, 12:21:51 am »

Whoever ends up as Governor in January 2007, Rick Perry, Kay Hutch, or some other person.  This would give them a huge boost if they plan to seek higher office (i.e. White House) in 2012 or 2016.  Being the Chief Executive for the second-most populated state in the country is definitely a good spring board.  Just ask George W. Bush.

True, however the term "chief executive" is a very loose one when describing the power of the governor. The governor of Texas has very little power. Mainly just the power to appoint and act as represenative of Texas to meet with the likes of the president of Mexico, Vicente Fox. The true "cheif execuative" of Texas is the Lt. Governor, David Dewhurst.

TX_1824 is very correct here. 

The person who sets the legislative agenda is the Lt. Governor.  The Governor has absolutely no power pretty much over what legislation comes to a vote (unless he works very closely with the Lt. Gov.). 

Of course, he can veto or support what he wants legislatively, but the Texas Constitution takes pretty much every big legislative change out of his hands by requiring a Constitutional Amendment to be approved by the voters and 2/3rds of the Senate and House.

The Texas Constitution is very limited and has had about 3,000 amendments in the 130 years.

Governors in Texas are very weak.  Lt. Governors are very strong.
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A18
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« Reply #11 on: May 07, 2005, 12:25:21 am »

Um, what? If he can vetoes and signs legislation, how is that any different from the president of the United States? How is he limited?

What power does the lt. governor have that the governor does not?
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #12 on: May 07, 2005, 12:38:03 am »

Um, what? If he can vetoes and signs legislation, how is that any different from the president of the United States? How is he limited?

What power does the lt. governor have that the governor does not?

Question 1:  First, he cannot dictate the legislation to the House or Senate to consider.  He must go through the Lt. Governor first, who controls what legislation reaches the floor and what legislation doesn't.

Bush, very early in his career made good friends with the Democrat Lt. Gov. Bob Bullock, which was very smart, because otherwise he would have had hell getting any of his priorities (tort reform, education through) up for a vote ever.

Secondly, and I must stress this again.  The Texas Constitution is extremely limited.  The Legislature can't pass laws on a bunch of things that the US House and Senate can.  They must pass a piece of legislation by 2/3rds vote and then it must pass a majority of voters as a Constitutional Amendment.  The Governor has no hand in these things.

As a few examples:  Laws allowing home-equity loans had to be passed through the House and Senate and then as a Constitutional amendment by a majority of voters.

A state income tax can only be enacted the same way.

An anti-gay marriage law can only be enacted the same way.

In these fields, the governor has no control over this at all.  And also in these fields the Lt. Governor has all the control because he dictates what will come up for a vote and what won't.

It's a system you would like A18.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #13 on: May 07, 2005, 12:44:42 am »

Link to the Texas Constitution for reading:

http://tlo2.tlc.state.tx.us/txconst/toc.html
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jimrtex
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« Reply #14 on: May 07, 2005, 02:44:45 am »

Simply put, Hutchinson, in order to win, will have to pull a McCain here and rely on the support independents and Democrats, as Texas has an open primary system, where any registered voter can vote in any one primary he or she wishes to.
I doubt that Democrat voters will vote in a Republican primary.  If there is an opening in the Senate, I would expect a contest for the Democrat nomination, as I don't see any Republican statewide office-holder switching positions at the last moment into a senate race.  And Democrats aren't accustomed to switching to the Republican primary because there is nothing happening in their own primary.  This is unlike the reverse position 20 years ago, where in much of the state, if you didn't vote in the Democrat primary, you had no vote in local and legislative races.

So what KBH needs to do is draw people who don't typically vote in primaries (turnout in the general election has been 3 to 4 times the combined vote in the primaries).  What might help is if Strayhorn runs for Lt. Governor.  Voters in general are not as conservative as the people who go through to the convention.  Since the primary is so early and open to all independent voters, candidates do not have to necessarily appeal to the hard core activists (unless they need funds).

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Carole Keeton Strayhorn (she remarried last year).  I don't think she has the resources to run against Perry or Hutchison.  If Strayhorn moves it will be for Lt. Governor.  This would probably help Hutchison as it would provide another race to interest voters.

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He has the advantage of being able to prepare to jump into the Senate race, but if Hutchison stays, he easily wins re-election in his House seat.

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Sharp has been out of office for 7 years, and lost 2 statewide races.  People might not remember him.  The Democrats are going after Cuellar, so I'd expect him to be concentrating on holding that seat.  If Cuellar ever holds statewide office, it will be as a Republican.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #15 on: May 07, 2005, 02:54:26 am »

Governors in Texas are very weak.  Lt. Governors are very strong.
The power of the Lt. Governor is limited to a legislative session every other year, and has to deal with 31 senators who have larger districts than federal representatives.  The constitution authority for the Lt. Governor over the Texas Senate is the same as the Vice President over the US Senate.  A few strong Lt.Governors (Bullock in particular) have given an appearance of greater strength.  This was especially true when there was a Tory Democrat-Republican majority.  Saying that the Lt.Governor has more power than the Governor, is partly flattery.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #16 on: June 18, 2005, 02:10:56 am »

Bumping as we have news...

Hutchinson is not running for Governor, she is running for re-election to the Senate as of today's announcement here.

http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/ssistory.mpl/front/3230922

The Republican primary will mainly pit Rick Perry against Comptroller Carole Keeton Strayhorn (I think that's her new maiden name), as everyone is expecting Strayhorn to announce that she is running this afternoon.  (will post announcement here)

This article also mentions Mitch McConnell saying that Hutchinson will probably be the #3 Republican in the Senate when she wins re-election.
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ThePrezMex
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« Reply #17 on: June 18, 2005, 09:35:57 am »

This announcement was a relative surprise, since most people expected KBH to run. Today at noon, Carole Keeton Strayhorn is going to make 'A MAJOR ANNOUNCEMENT'  with free hot dogs, free drinks and music.

Given that KBH is out of the race, now it is almost sure that Strayhorn is running against Perry, but then, that's what everybody though KBH was going to do. She could also announce for Lt. Governor.

Today Howard Dean is here in Austin to address the Texas Democratic Party.

If you want to read more about Texas politics, here is a really good blog that I recommend. It is a 'democratic' blog, but they have good news and is writen by UT students. They have tons of links to other blogs, including republicans, if you want to read different perspectives:

http://www.burntorangereport.com
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M
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« Reply #18 on: June 18, 2005, 10:03:39 am »

Hurrah! I will likely vote for Strayhorn, since Perry is a useless a**hole and Dewhurst is in over his head. The only thing that really disappoints me is we'll have to wait again to stick Bonilla in the Senate. (Why couldn't he have replaced Gramm, instead of Cornyn?)
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #19 on: June 18, 2005, 11:04:45 am »

The only thing that really disappoints me is we'll have to wait again to stick Bonilla in the Senate.

That's what I'm upset about, too.  Sad
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No more McShame
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« Reply #20 on: June 18, 2005, 12:48:30 pm »

The only thing that really disappoints me is we'll have to wait again to stick Bonilla in the Senate.

That's what I'm upset about, too.  Sad

Maybe Conryn will be appointed to the Supreme Court.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #21 on: June 18, 2005, 08:14:46 pm »

The Republican primary will mainly pit Rick Perry against Comptroller Carole Keeton Strayhorn (I think that's her new maiden name), as everyone is expecting Strayhorn to announce that she is running this afternoon.
Strayhorn is her new married name, replacing Rylander.  I don't know if she has ever run for office using McClellan.

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riceowl
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« Reply #22 on: July 01, 2005, 01:26:49 am »

Who said Hutch was pro-choice? I guess it depends on your definition, bc her answers to the NPAT would say otherwise:
(x's are ones she agrees with)

 a) Abortions should always be illegal.
 
 X  b) Abortions should be illegal when the fetus is viable, with or without life support.
 
 c) Abortions should always be legally available.
 
 d) Abortions should be legal only within the first trimester of pregnancy.
 
 X  e) Abortions should be legal when the pregnancy resulted from incest or rape.
 
 X  f) Abortions should be legal when the life of the woman is endangered.
 
 X  g) Abortions should be limited by waiting periods and notification requirements as decided by each state government.
 
 X  h) Prohibit the dilation and extraction procedure, also known as "partial birth" abortion.
 
 X  i) Prohibit public funding of abortions and public funding of organizations that advocate or perform abortions.
 
 X  j) Support "buffer-zones" by requiring demonstrators to stay at least five feet from abortion clinic doorways and driveways.


...her positions are the same as mine, and I'm pretty pro-life.
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