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October 01, 2020, 04:00:23 am
News: First US presidential debate discussion thread link:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=400306.0

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs?
  Past Election What-ifs (US) (Moderators: Kalwejt, Apocrypha)
  2000: Bush vs. Bradley vs. McCain vs. Trump
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Author Topic: 2000: Bush vs. Bradley vs. McCain vs. Trump  (Read 9674 times)
Colin
ColinW
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« Reply #25 on: July 16, 2005, 05:55:41 pm »

Bradley and Trump would probably split in New Jersey giving it to Bush or McCain.

In that case, if New Jersey went to Bush, that would give Bush 237 EV, Bradley 168 EV, McCain 133 EV, with my numbers, giving Bush a stronger case in the House.

If, in that case, New Jersey went to McCain, that would give Bush 222 EV, Bradley 168 EV, McCain 148 EV, with my numbers, still giving Bush a strong case in the House. 



It wouldn't matter anyway. Unless a good majority of moderate Republican Representatives refuse to vote for Bush in the House vote he would have a rather easy time in the House especially since McCain would still be viewed as an independent and possibly a turn coat by the party. But if McCain is able to get a large backing in the House it could be a rather long dicussion. It would also be possible that the Republicans supporting Bush and the Republicans/Democrats supporting McCain would come to some sort of compromise, maybe a McCain/Cheney or Bush/Specter presidency depending upon who is able to gain the upper hand first.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #26 on: July 18, 2005, 04:07:31 pm »

Thank you Casey for creating this very thought provoking and fascinating match up.



My main disagreement is with Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota and Michigan. The split in the GOP vote would give those states to Bradley. Same with Florida.
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Lincoln Republican
Winfield
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« Reply #27 on: July 18, 2005, 06:05:04 pm »

Thank you Casey for creating this very thought provoking and fascinating match up.



My main disagreement is with Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota and Michigan. The split in the GOP vote would give those states to Bradley. Same with Florida.

Thank you Phil.

Using my numbers, with Bradley winning the additional states you believe he would, that would give Bush 222, Bradley 254, McCain 62, Trump 0.

Bush would still win the Presidency, as it would still go to the House, which was controlled by the Republicans in 2000.  Bradley would have to have won an outright majority in the election to have won the Presidency.  I can't see any of the candidates in this matchup winning an outright majority of EV in the election.   
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George W. Hobbes
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« Reply #28 on: July 19, 2005, 03:50:51 am »

Frankly, there's part of me that wouldn't mind Trump's ideas (the 14.25% tax is appealing), just not Trump the man.
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