NC-PPP: Burr anonymous, but leads

[Miles]

Article.

Burr- 49%
Hagan- 40%

Burr- 43%
McIntyre- 34%

Burr- 48%
Blue- 34%

Burr- 46%
Martin- 31%

Burr- 48%
Jackson- 31%

Burr's approval is 35/36/29.

[Maxwell]

Under 50 but still, this is probably out of Democrat range.

[MT Treasurer]

Not good news for Hillary... There won't be many Burr/Clinton voters.

[Miles]

^ With the exception of Hagan, who's had her favorable numbers hammered down over the last year, Burr leads a bunch of Democats who each have 20-30% name recognition. I wouldn't extrapolate too much out of that in terms of Hillary.

This is a sample that voted the same as the actual result, Romney +2.

[MT Treasurer]

^ With the exception of Hagan, who's had her favorable numbers hammered down over the last year, Burr leads a bunch of Democats who each have 20-30% name recognition. I wouldn't extrapolate too much out of that in terms of Hillary.

Burr himself doesn't have much recognition, he is just a generic R who is close to 50% and leads his Democratic opponents by wide margins. Once the conservative undecideds come home, he should be safe.

This is a sample that voted the same as the actual result, Romney +2.

Which should make Democrats even more worried. You'd assume that Burr would at least be leading by 3 or 2 points, but he isn't. I doubt that Walker/Bush/Paul/Rubio will poll much worse than Burr.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

^ With the exception of Hagan, who's had her favorable numbers hammered down over the last year, Burr leads a bunch of Democats who each have 20-30% name recognition. I wouldn't extrapolate too much out of that in terms of Hillary.

This is a sample that voted the same as the actual result, Romney +2.

However, Burr is only below 45% in one of the 5 matchups. Undecideds need to go overwhelmingly against Burr for him to lose. Burr comes closest to 50% against Hagan, who is supposed to be the strongest possible challenger. And McIntyre, who pulls Burr the furthest under 50%, is unlikely to run and may have trouble turning out the democratic base since he's such a conservadem. It's time to move this over to Likely R.

[pbrower2a]

There's much time left, and in essence Richard Burr must play an eat-the-calendar strategy of avoiding controversial positions. Your guess is as good as mine on whether the national Republican Party will do that.  He's in better shape than Pat Toomey, who has a Senate seat in a state less amenable to Republicans.

But 35% approval is not enough. He will need more to survive politically. Lean R.

Burr has plenty of advantages, but he had better keep most of them.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Udall led Gardner 49-39 in April 2013.

[Maxwell]

Udall led Gardner 49-39 in April 2013.

Who are you suggesting is Gardner's reverse then? Obviously not Hagan, who has very much sunk her reputation.

[Talleyrand]

Udall led Gardner 49-39 in April 2013.

Who are you suggesting is Gardner's reverse then? Obviously not Hagan, who has very much sunk her reputation.

Maybe Janet Cowell, complete with the reconsidering part if she were to enter?

In the end, Burr will win this comfortably though. Democrats should focus on Illinois, Wisconsin, Colorado, and Nevada. If they have a good night, they'll get to 48 seats.

[CapoteMonster]

^ With the exception of Hagan, who's had her favorable numbers hammered down over the last year, Burr leads a bunch of Democats who each have 20-30% name recognition. I wouldn't extrapolate too much out of that in terms of Hillary.

This is a sample that voted the same as the actual result, Romney +2.

However, Burr is only below 45% in one of the 5 matchups. Undecideds need to go overwhelmingly against Burr for him to lose. Burr comes closest to 50% against Hagan, who is supposed to be the strongest possible challenger. And McIntyre, who pulls Burr the furthest under 50%, is unlikely to run and may have trouble turning out the democratic base since he's such a conservadem. It's time to move this over to Likely R.

Most of the undecideds are non-white though. Burr's low approval rating is an alarming detriment and won't get much better if he doesn't define himself before the campaign.

[pbrower2a]

Same political climate as 2008, Burr loses. Same political climate as 2014, he wins.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Udall led Gardner 49-39 in April 2013.

Who are you suggesting is Gardner's reverse then? Obviously not Hagan, who has very much sunk her reputation.

Maybe Janet Cowell, complete with the reconsidering part if she were to enter?

In the end, Burr will win this comfortably though. Democrats should focus on Illinois, Wisconsin, Colorado, Pennsylvania; and Nevada. If they have a good night

[morgieb]

Udall led Gardner 49-39 in April 2013.

Who are you suggesting is Gardner's reverse then? Obviously not Hagan, who has very much sunk her reputation.

Maybe Janet Cowell, complete with the reconsidering part if she were to enter?

In the end, Burr will win this comfortably though. Democrats should focus on Illinois, Wisconsin, Colorado, and Nevada. If they have a good night, they'll get to 48 seats.

I would be pretty disappointed (unless 2016 looks bad) if we only get 48 seats tbh. All 4 seats are at least 50/50 if not better for Team D.