Radical Changes Elections Timeline

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No hypothetical polls with Hart as 4th party?

That was kind of the whole point of his announcement

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BOXER ANNOUNCES NEW PARTY; PRESIDENTIAL BID

November 2, 2003

Perhaps the most stunning news in the era of modern political history came today as Senator Barbara Boxer - a liberal firebrand and the founder of the People's Progressive Caucus in the United States Congress - announced that she, together with thirty-two other Senators, ninety-six members of the  House of Representatives, and eleven state governors, would jointly launch the People's Progressive Party to oppose the Iraq War and the administration of President Al Gore.

Coming only weeks after Democratic presidential candidate Gary Hart revealed that he was contacted by Boxer to explore a potential independent bid for the presidency, the announcement will likely come to a surprise to few, as recent months have seen tensions between the People's Progressive movement and the mainstream Democratic Party increase to what many have said is a point of no return. In her speech on Capitol Hill, Boxer said that "it is time our nation is given the option to choose a party that truly represents the values of liberty, equality, and justice - a party that refutes the corporate warmongering of those who do not wish to see our great nation progress into the future."

Since September, the People's Progressive Party, along with Larry Craig's newly founded Conservative Traditionalist Party, have both seen their popularity grow in either chamber of Congress and in the public sphere, with multiple Representatives, Senators, Governors, and other public officials changing their party affiliation in recent months due to the increasingly unpredictable political conditions in our nation. Most notably, Senators Chuck Schumer and Hillary Clinton announced their decisions to join the PPP late last month, with public demand in their home state of New York causing the two Senators who many see to be more moderate liberals change their party affiliation. October also saw Republicans Susan Collins and Olympia Snowe - both of Maine - switch to the Progressive Party along with Senators Maria Cantwell, Bill Owen, and Chris Dodd, while Senator Ben Nelson, a former Democrat, is now affiliated with the Conservatives. Meanwhile, multiple United States governors also changed their party affiliations in October, with John Baldacci (ME), Jim McGreevey (NJ), and Ted Kulongoski (OR) all switching to the PPP and John Rowland (CT), Craig Benson (NV), and Mark Sanford (SC) all joining the CTP.

As of the beginning of November, the following is the partisan composition of the United States Senate:

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Meanwhile, the House composition currently stands at 127-120-96-92, while our nation's fifty state governors align as follows:

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The announcement of the formation of the People's Progressive Party has also altered the dynamics of the 2004 presidential race significantly, with Boxer stating that she will pursue a bid for the presidency under the People's Progressive banner. While the PPP has not yet established a primary or convention system to select an official presidential nominee, Boxer has stated that doing so is one of her top priorities, emphasizing that "a fair and free system of choosing who represents the People's Progressive movement on the presidential ballot next November is vital to the success and integrity of our party." As of the time of the publication of this article, the only candidate who has suggested a potential run against Boxer for the Progressive nomination is Rhode Island Senator Lincoln Chafee, who announced in a press release this morning that he "is actively exploring joining the race for the Progressive presidential nomination in order to better promote a discussion of good ideas within our party." No other major challengers are expected to launch bids against Boxer for the Progressive nomination, as she is seen by most as unequivocally qualified to lead the party that she was responsible for forming.

Newsweek Poll - Democratic Primary (November 2)

Al Gore - 38% (+1)
Evan Bayh - 29% (-1)
Gary Hart - 29% (-1)
Undecided - 4% (+1)

Newsweek Poll - Republican Primary (November 2)

Dick Cheney - 29% (+2)
Richard Lugar - 20% (+/-0)
John Hoeven - 18% (+1)
Lamar Alexander - 7% (+/-0)
Frank Murkowski - 7% (+1)
Undecided - 19% (-4)

Newsweek Poll - People's Progressive Primary (November 2)

Barbara Boxer - 82%
Lincoln Chafee - 4%
Undecided - 14%

Newsweek Poll - Conservative Traditionalist Primary (November 2)

Larry Craig - 61% (+/-0)
Conrad Burns - 10% (+2)
Alan Keyes - 4% (+/-0)
Jim Bunning - 3% (+1)
Spencer Bachus - 1% (+/-0)
Undecided - 21% (-3)

Newsweek Poll - General Election Match-Ups (November 2)

Al Gore - 24%
Dick Cheney - 22%
Barbara Boxer - 20%
Larry Craig - 20%
Undecided - 14%

Evan Bayh - 26%
Dick Cheney - 21%
Barbara Boxer - 20%
Larry Craig - 19%
Undecided - 14%

Gary Hart - 30%
Dick Cheney - 22%
Larry Craig - 20%
Barbara Boxer - 14%
Undecided - 14%

Thoughts? Do tell. Thanks for reading!

[GoTfan]

This'll shake things up.

Out of curiosity, what is Bernie doing? Is he still an independent or is he with the Progressives now?

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This'll shake things up.

Out of curiosity, what is Bernie doing? Is he still an independent or is he with the Progressives now?

He's a Progressive for sure. No noticeable presidential ambitions as of now, but he'll definitely rise pretty high in PPP House leadership.

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December 2003 - The Final Stretch

With only slightly over a month remaining until the inaugural Iowa caucuses of the 2004 presidential primary season take place, candidates from all four parties across the political spectrum are making their final preparations - or, in some cases, first ones - before the primary elections begin.

On the Democratic side, President Al Gore has regained some ground since the first debate, with the recent passage of the Sarbanes-Bingaman Economic Recovery Act in mid-November serving as a rare example of multipartisan success in what has undoubtedly become a time of historical political tension. However, neither Evan Bayh or Gary Hart have shown signs of giving up soon, with both campaigns gearing up for strong performances in the respective early primary states of Iowa and New Hampshire.

Meanwhile, the Republicans have also seen the clear frontrunner in their primary maintain his lead, with former Senator Dick Cheney holding a strong first place in most national polls leading up to the beginning of the primary season. Richard Lugar and John Hoeven are essentially tied for second place as of mid-December, while Lamar Alexander and Frank Murkowski continue to bring up the rear.

However, the atmosphere in the Conservative Traditionalist primary is nowhere near as tranquil. While Larry Craig has maintained a striking lead over all other challengers for the CTP presidential nomination, December has seen two new candidates enter the race, with Governor Rick Perry of Texas and businessman Ross Perot, Jr., also of Texas, both announcing their entries into presidential politics. While the junior Perot is not seen as a major risk to Larry Craig's dominance in the CTP field, Perry could potentially bring with him a large base of southern support, which could threaten what many have seen as the coronation of Craig as the Conservative Traditionalists' first presidential nominee.

A similar situation can currently be seen in the presidential primary of the People's Progressive Party, where the surprise entry of two new candidates has put the dominance of a seemingly inevitable frontrunner at risk. In early December, civil rights activist Al Sharpton announced that he would challenge Barbara Boxer and Lincoln Chafee for leadership of the People's Progressive Party, declaring that "African-Americans need a voice in this party of change" during his announcement speech. Many see Sharpton's announcement as a way to attract more African-American voters to the PPP, which up to now has seen a deficit in minority support compared to the rival Democratic Party. Meanwhile, Senator Russ Feingold has announced his bid for the Progressive presidential nomination as well, arguing that "the People's Progressive Party needs a candidate who has shown through years of experience an unflinching desire for progressive change." Most pundits agree that Feingold will attack Boxer from the left, using his voting record in Congress to portray himself as a more palpable option for voters in what has increasingly become a leftist movement.


As the first primary contests approach, leaders in the CTP and PPP have been increasingly rushed to develop coherent electoral and delegate awarding systems for their respective primaries, with both parties frantically piecing together state party infrastructure in an attempt to develop primary systems on par with those of the Democrats and Republicans. Both the CTP and the PPP have adopted extremely liberal primary ballot access rules in order to fight allegations of corruption against Larry Craig and Barbara Boxer, though the extent of these rules is unlikely to significantly affect the primary results.

As per the rules of the Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act signed into law by President Gore in 2002, all major parties will now operate under the same primary schedule for the 2004 presidential election, which is to be as follows:

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2,162 delegates are necessary to win the presidential nomination of the Democratic Party (full delegate apportionment by state found here), while 1,255 delegates are necessary to win the Republican presidential nomination (full delegate apportionment by state found here). The Progressive People's Party has resolved to adopt the same state-by-state delegate apportionment and 2,162 delegate nomination threshold used by the Democrats, while the Conservative Traditionalist Party will award ten delegates to each state for each electoral vote allocated in the 2000 census (map found here), indicating that 2,691 delegates will be necessary to win the CTP nomination.

Associated Press/Ipsos Poll - Democratic Primary (December 19)

Al Gore - 40% (+2)
Evan Bayh - 28% (-1)
Gary Hart - 27% (-2)
Undecided - 5% (+1)

Associated Press/Ipsos Poll - Republican Primary (December 19)

Dick Cheney - 29% (+/-0)
Richard Lugar - 20% (+/-0)
John Hoeven - 19% (+1)
Lamar Alexander - 7% (+/-0)
Frank Murkowski - 6% (-1)
Undecided - 19% (+/-0)

Associated Press/Ipsos Poll - Conservative Traditionalist Primary (December 19)

Larry Craig - 56% (-5)
Rick Perry - 9% (+9)
Conrad Burns - 9% (-1)
Alan Keyes - 3% (-1)
Jim Bunning - 3% (+/-0)
Ross Perot, Jr. - 2% (+2)
Spencer Bachus - 1% (+/-0)
Undecided - 17% (-4)

Associated Press/Ipsos Poll - People's Progressive Primary (December 19)

Barbara Boxer - 60% (-22)
Russ Feingold - 22% (+22)
Al Sharpton - 5% (+5)
Lincoln Chafee - 3% (-1)
Undecided - 10% (-4)

Associated Press/Ipsos Poll - General Election Match-Ups (December 19)

Al Gore - 25% (+1)
Dick Cheney - 22% (+/-0)
Barbara Boxer - 19% (-1)
Larry Craig - 19% (-1)
Undecided - 15% (+1)

Evan Bayh - 26% (+/-0)
Dick Cheney - 21% (+/-0)
Barbara Boxer - 18% (-2)
Larry Craig - 18% (-1)
Undecided - 17% (+3)

Gary Hart - 29% (-1)
Dick Cheney - 22% (+/-0)
Larry Craig - 19% (-1)
Barbara Boxer - 14% (+/-0)
Undecided - 16% (+2)

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

TERROR STRIKES

Attack in Karbala Kills Over 230

The world was overwhelmed by mourning on April 26 as a coordinated terrorist attack in the Iraqi city of Karbala killed more than two hundred and thirty civilians and injured almost seven hundred others, with the al-Qaeda terrorist group claiming responsibility for the massacre that many say was the largest single terrorist attack on Iraqi soil in modern history.

The attack, which al-Qaeda claims was due to the alleged betrayal of the Iraqi people and way of life by Western leaders, began around 11:00 AM AST when four unidentified suicide bombers associated with the al-Qaeda group detonated their suicide vests on separate crowded city streets, killing a combined estimated one-hundred and ninety or more pedestrians. A fifth bomber was captured by Iraqi police shortly before the planned detonation time and is currently in American custody. The suicide bombing was followed by a series of coordinated shootings around the city, with terrorists in at least two restaurants and one primary school massacring civilians before being apprehended by security. A total of thirty-three children are estimated to have been killed as a result of the attack, with two American and three British peacekeepers among the total two-hundred and thirty casualties.

Response to the attack was swift and hard-hitting, with Iraqi security forces in the region initiating a full lock down of the city to locate the remaining terrorists involved and prevent any co-conspirators from leaving. The international response was also quick, with President Gore calling the massacre an "indefensible and brutal mass murder of innocent men, women, and children who were merely trying to live their lives in peace." Prime Minister Prescott, after speaking with the families of the three British peacekeepers killed, called the attacks "absolutely outrageous" and promised not to back down in the face of increased adversity from opposition groups in the region.

The attack - which many blamed on insufficient security support from American and British peacekeeping forces - followed a rather depressing week for coalition troops on the Iraqi front. On April 23, Iraqi forces successfully prevented the infiltration of a key security outpost outside Baghdad by coalition troops, and the next day, twenty-two Americans were killed when an Iraqi lieutenant masquerading as a civilian detonated a bomb two miles from an American bunker. Both events were widely reported in the American media, and - combined with the recent attack in Karbala - significantly damaged Gore's reputation among the American people as a reliable Commander in Chief.

Things would be getting no better for President Gore, as on May 4, he received his first serious primary opponent for the upcoming 2004 presidential election, with Senator Evan Bayh of Indiana announcing his decision to challenge Gore for the Democratic presidential nomination. In a passionate speech delivered outside his office in the District of Columbia, Bayh pronounced his desire for a "stronger, more confident leader to take the reins of this great nation in such times of trouble," emphasizing the "need of the American people for a President who can navigate through conflict without hesitation or second thought." Senator Bayh's decision came as a complete surprise to most Democratic Party insiders, with many calling the spontaneous announcement a mere attempt to gain attention. However, a Bayh staffer maintained the seriousness of the campaign, revealing that internal polls had suggested President Gore's approval ratings had fallen steeply in past days due to the declining situation on the Iraqi front.

The negative trend was confirmed by the Marist polling firm, which, in a poll released on May 1, suggested that President Gore's approval had fallen a stunning 20 points to 59% compared to where it was one month ago. The Bayh campaign was apparently aware of the trend well before and had collected similar polling numbers through its internals, leading to the Senator's announcement.

Meanwhile, the GOP was seeing its presidential primary begin to gain steam as well, with former Senator and 2000 Republican Vice Presidential nominee Dick Cheney announcing his decision to enter the race. In his announcement at a Republican fundraising event in Iowa, Cheney blasted the Gore Administration for "providing insufficient leadership in the face of the most serious security threat to the American people since the Cold War," attacking Gore for "weak policies and weak leadership that will make for a weak America if he's allowed four more years." Cheney's presidential announcement was followed in rapid succession by those of Senator Richard Lugar (R-IN), Governor Frank Murkowski (R-AK), and Governor Dirk Kempthorne (R-ID), each of whom announced their decisions to challenge Cheney for the GOP nomination in the first few days of May. While they had not yet announced, Ohio Governor Bob Taft and former Education Secretary Lamar Alexander both remained potential candidates for the GOP nomination, along with conservative activist and 2000 candidate for the GOP nomination Alan Keyes.

Marist College - Presidential Approval (May 6)

Approve - 59% (-20)
Disapprove - 38% (+19)
Undecided - 4% (+1)

Marist College - National Republican Primary Poll (May 6)

Dick Cheney - 31% (+4)
John Hoeven - 14% (-1)
Richard Lugar - 11% (+8)
Conrad Burns - 7% (-4)
Dirk Kempthorne - 7% (+7)
Bob Taft - 6% (-2)
Frank Murkowski - 5% (+3)
Lamar Alexander - 4% (-1)
Alan Keyes - 3% (+3)
Undecided - 12% (-17)

Marist College - National Democratic Primary Poll (May 6)

Al Gore - 81% (-13)
Evan Bayh - 8% (+8)
Lyndon LaRouche - 1% (-1)
Undecided - 10% (+6)

Marist College - General Election Match-Ups (May 6)

Al Gore - 49% (-5)
Dick Cheney - 46% (+5)
Undecided - 5% (+/-0)

Al Gore - 48% (-4)
John Hoeven - 46% (+3)
Undecided - 6% (+1)

Richard Lugar - 46%
Al Gore - 45%
Undecided - 9%

While general election polling did seem to imply good news for Republicans, the situation that the GOP had found itself in on Capitol Hill was nowhere near as promising. On April 5, a video was released of Senator Thad Cochran of Mississippi vehemently throwing insults fellow Senator Larry Craig of Idaho during a conversation between the two, calling Craig a "loony strumpet so stupid [he] can't put one foot in front of the other" and proceeding to spit on Craig's shoe. The same day, a congressional staffer revealed to CNN that while at a formal event the night before, he had witnessed House Speaker Dennis Hastert throw a full glass of wine at Representative Spencer Bachus and nearly assaulting him before the Speaker was held back by two aides. While news networks and political analysts were still unable to decipher the meaning of the controversy as of early May - all parties involved in the incidents denied any connections - many suggested that the recent happenings signaled severe distress within rival sections of the GOP. Little did they know, the changes were only about to begin.

The attack in Tikrit makes JCL a very angry and sad 🐼. Darth likely kills my older brother ittl.

I'd likely be a GOP/CTP swing voter depending on candidates.

[NOT gonna be banned soon]

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Dole might go CTC but maybe her husband can sway her to remain GOP. Graham, Thune, Allen, Grassley, Snowe, Collins and Hutchinson (TX) are probably staying GOP. Miller and Chafee are probably remaning Democrat and Jeffords is most certainly remaining Independent

Not to discourage you, though, just pointing out stuff that can be changed to make it be more plausible. I really like this TL, and, with a 4 party America, it is interesting to see how things go in the future!

The attack in Tikrit makes JCL a very angry and sad 🐼. Darth likely kills my older brother ittl.

I'd likely be a GOP/CTP swing voter depending on candidates.

May you please not quote entire updates?

[NOT gonna be banned soon]

With the far-leftists out of the Democratic party you might as well can call me a Democrat

[LLR]

It's been two months, Darren.

[Oppo]

I've been lurking for a long time, and I want to say that this timeline is amazing! Keep on the good work!