What would have to happen for a Republican to get to 49% in California?

[Suburbia]

What would have to happen for a Republican nominee to get to 48 or more in California?

[Consciously Unconscious]

The big one

[Hydera]

Bernie sanders = Democrat Candidate

Recession occurs by next year.

Obama approval rating >35%

[The Other Castro]

Millions of Mark Halperin clones invading and taking up residence there.

[Skye]

Bernie Sanders as the Dem candidate, plus Obama approvals under water.

[bobloblaw]

What would have to happen for a Republican nominee to get to 48 or more in California?

Mathematically speaking..winning 63% or more of the white vote. Romney won 53% of the white vote in CA in 2012. Whites while they make up 39% of the population make up over 65% of the ballots cast.

It would require getting 80% in Orange County, 70% in San Diego County 60% in Ventura, probably doing close to 50% in LA county to offset the Bay Area which in my view is quite inelastic. Strong turn out in Kern, Placier and Fresno County.

Or more improbable getting 45% or more of the hispanic vote and breaking 50% among Asians. Blacks are only 6% of CA population but probably 10% of the votes cast.

[t_host1]

What would have to happen for a Republican nominee to get to 48 or more in California?

Mathematically speaking..winning 63% or more of the white vote. Romney won 53% of the white vote in CA in 2012. Whites while they make up 39% of the population make up over 65% of the ballots cast.

It would require getting 80% in Orange County, 70% in San Diego County 60% in Ventura, probably doing close to 50% in LA county to offset the Bay Area which in my view is quite inelastic. Strong turn out in Kern, Placier and Fresno County.

Or more improbable getting 45% or more of the hispanic vote and breaking 50% among Asians. Blacks are only 6% of CA population but probably 10% of the votes cast.

...hum, well, it then must of been the citizen with ID required rule that made the difference. 

[© tweed]

you'd be looking at a Republican national PV of about 57-58% (barring third parties), which is essentially impossible.

the better chance at a GOP win in Cali comes from a left-wing third party siphoning off votes.  say a 46% - 45% - 8% type win.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

wishy-washy noncharismatic centrist WalterMitty endorsed white candidate, also ensnared in corruption cases, disendorsed by many Democrats.

Big-name Third party progressive (warren?) who has recieved endorsements from numerous Democrats, as well as the AFL-CIO

Relatively clean Republican who has approval of media.

Tanking Obama approval ratings.

[CountryClassSF]

What would have to happen for a Republican nominee to get to 48 or more in California?

A voter ID law and the  San Francisco Comical/Chronicle going out of business.

[retromike22]

A very rapid sea level rise.

[RFayette]

ISIS completely takes over Middle Eastern governments and is found to be actively backing Clinton.

[CountryClassSF]

A very rapid sea level rise.

A surprisingly large number of people in San Francisco are already of convinced of that in their future. lol

[WVdemocrat]

Millions of Mark Halperin clones invading and taking up residence there.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Moderate Republicans can actually do quite well in California. It's just that it's easiest if they pretend they're Democrats, like Dianne Feinstein.

[CountryClassSF]

Moderate Republicans can actually do quite well in California. It's just that it's easiest if they pretend they're Democrats, like Dianne Feinstein.

Just ask Kashkari and Whitman and DeMaio and Maldonado

[IceSpear]

Millions of Mark Halperin clones invading and taking up residence there.

[ElectionsGuy]

Bernie sanders = Democrat Candidate

Recession occurs by next year.

Obama approval rating >35%

Realistically ^^^^