United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership

[JerryArkansas]

Someone on another forum is spreading a rumor that internal polling in clacton has it 52-48 for leave.

Is that a supposed remain, leave or both area?

Its the area where UKIP has an MP, so very bad for Leave if true.

[JerryArkansas]

South Tyneside

Leave 62%
Remain 38%

GREAT news for Leave.  South Tyneside is a strong Labour area.

That seems about on par for a 50-50 election.

[JerryArkansas]

Just a not to the people celebrating this win for Leave.  The pound has now fallen to a 31 year low on this news, and it continues to go down.  Stock exchanges are all falling at least 3 percent, much more in Europe.  Real world consequences right there.

Edit, it's fallen 10%, it officially a crash.

[JerryArkansas]

Everyone cheering for economic destruction is hilarious utterly depressing.

Pound is the lowest it's been since 1985.

It will be great for tourism.

You realize they will not be able to afford to buy our stuff anymore right?

You do realize that the Pound is still stronger than the Dollar, right?  They'll be ok.

How damn stupid are you.  Holy sh**t you have zero grasp on how bad this is right now.  God, feel sorry for you.

[JerryArkansas]

Should I start the "2018 UK EU Referendum Mark 2.0" thread yet?

Why not start an early general election thread, and a Conservative Party leader one at that.  One of those things will happen by the end of the month, and I hope the other could happen as well.

[JerryArkansas]

The US is never going to let the UK lose their veto in the UN.  Not gonna happen!  Hate to burst all of your anti-British bubbles.

Were not anti British, just anti stupid and anti wrecking the world economy. 

[JerryArkansas]

Got really bored and couldn't sleep, so here are some results of the referendum by Parliamentary constituency where I could find them.  Only got about 50, but it's better than nothing.



Now realize I am tired, so any mistakes are do to that fact.  I mostly used that link to the google docs and used the results that were listed in the column that was marked local authority results.

Also going through conclile websites and seeing if they have ward data posted, if so, using that to add to the map.  Already getting Bristol done with that.  However it is kind of hard since some wards have been combined and renamed since the districts were drawn.  If I come across that, I'll just map an educated guess at to where they fall.

[JerryArkansas]

Hanretty's model overestimates Leave on Merseyside.

In Liverpool, he has Leave votes of 35%, 61%, 44% and 59% for Riverside, Walton, West Derby and Wavertree respectively, and 56% in Garston & Halewood (the majority of which is in the city).  Crudely averaged, these give an even split or very slight Leave majority, but the city voted 58% Remain.

In Sefton, he estimates Leave wins in all three constituencies (52% in Sefton Central and Southport, 59% in Bootle), but Remain won the borough.

Similar calculations suggest significant overestimation of Leave support in Wirral and Knowsley.

OTOH, in Sheffield the citywide result matches his model pretty well, though unfortunately the count wasn't done by ward so we'll never know just how polarised the result was.  (Hanretty's model has Leave votes of 30% in Central and 35% in Hallam, but 58% in Heeley, 61% in Brightside & Hillsborough and Penistone & Stocksbridge and as high as 67% in South East.  I don't find these numbers implausible.)

Its the reason why I don't want ot use his model.  In a few places, the model did ok, but in others it was way off, going both ways.  Some way overestimating of Leave percentage, by like 10 to 15 points, and the flip of that.

[JerryArkansas]

Got really bored and couldn't sleep, so here are some results of the referendum by Parliamentary constituency where I could find them.  Only got about 50, but it's better than nothing.



Now realize I am tired, so any mistakes are do to that fact.  I mostly used that link to the google docs and used the results that were listed in the column that was marked local authority results.

Also going through conclile websites and seeing if they have ward data posted, if so, using that to add to the map.  Already getting Bristol done with that.  However it is kind of hard since some wards have been combined and renamed since the districts were drawn.  If I come across that, I'll just map an educated guess at to where they fall.

You can do Bristol as all the new wards are still kept entirely within one of the four constituencies.

These are some constituency results from other local authorities that released ward data you can add to your map if you want (there may be more):

South West:

Bristol North West: 58.4% Remain
Bristol East: 53.2% Remain
Bristol South: 52.9% Remain
Bristol West: 79.3% Remain

London:

Greenwich and Woolwich: 64.3% Remain
Eltham: 51.8% Leave
Streatham: 79.5% Remain
Vauxhall: 77.4% Remain
Feltham and Heston: 55.9% Leave
Brentford and Isleworth: 56.7% Remain
Ealing North: 53.7% Remain
Ealing Southall: 58.2% Remain
Ealing Central and Acton: 70.8% Remain
Holborn and St Pancras: 73.3% Remain

West Midlands:

Wolverhampton North East: 67.7% Leave
Wolverhampton South West: 54.4% Leave
Aldridge-Brownhills: 67.8% Leave
Walsall North: 74.2% Leave
Walsall South: 61.6% Leave

East Midlands:

Nottingham North: 63.8% Leave
Nottingham East: 57.1% Remain
Nottingham South: 53.1% Remain

Thanks for that.  When I did the results for Bristol, I got some different results.

Bristol North West: 58.2% Remain
Bristol East: 57.6% Remain
Bristol South: 51.8% Remain
Bristol West: 80% Remain

Same with Vauxhall, I got 79%.

Edit nevermind I know why, I wasn't counting rejected ballots, inflating the numbers.

[JerryArkansas]

Added some more places, the ones posted in the thread.  Also added Cambridge and Inverclyde since both of them are about a constituency in themselves.  Only small parts not inside each.

[JerryArkansas]

Update on the map.