United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership (user search)
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Author Topic: United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership  (Read 175446 times)
Angel of Death
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« on: September 18, 2015, 11:07:25 AM »

A new Survation poll shows support for leaving at 51% and support for staying at 49%. This is the first time since November of 2014 that they have found a lead for the Out campaign.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/09/05/uk-britain-eu-poll-idUKKCN0R50X820150905

In my opinion, great news, UK can get out of this neo-liberal, undemocratic, austerity filth.

I don't know whether you've noticed it, but if anything, it's the UK that has been the reactionary force inside the EU.
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Angel of Death
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Posts: 2,411
« Reply #1 on: September 28, 2015, 02:09:31 PM »

YouGov/The Times: "Leave" leads 41% to 38%.

Is it reasonable to assume that Cameron will resign if Britain votes to leave?
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Angel of Death
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Posts: 2,411
« Reply #2 on: May 29, 2016, 02:16:06 PM »

I wonder what outcome would be in Labour's best interests; it probably won't matter much either way.
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Angel of Death
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Posts: 2,411
« Reply #3 on: June 09, 2016, 11:08:57 AM »

The polls may indicate a neck-and-neck race, but the prediction markets are quite bullish on Remain winning.
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Angel of Death
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Posts: 2,411
« Reply #4 on: June 10, 2016, 03:39:34 PM »

There are SNPers who oppose independence, don't forget.

It's not exactly obscure knowledge that the SNP only became so huge after becoming more than a generic nationalist party and adopting an economically left-wing ideology. UKIP Remainers are clearly stranger creatures.
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Angel of Death
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Posts: 2,411
« Reply #5 on: June 15, 2016, 08:59:24 AM »

I'm predicting the slightest margin of a victory for Leave.

Which would be the worst-case scenario in terms of staving off political chaos.
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Angel of Death
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Posts: 2,411
« Reply #6 on: June 18, 2016, 07:36:55 AM »

Unless there is a clear victory for one side or the other, there will now inevitably be a cloud over the outcome of the referendum as a result of this murder.
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Angel of Death
Sr. Member
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Posts: 2,411
« Reply #7 on: June 18, 2016, 08:06:45 PM »

I think what will really determine this referendum is the working class votes,
the turnout among C2 and  DEs have been low for over 25 years,
if turnout of the working class matches the level of turnout with the AB and C1s then it's a leave victory.

As an aside, may I just remark how much of a Brave New World vibe I'm getting from these grades?
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Angel of Death
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Posts: 2,411
« Reply #8 on: June 19, 2016, 06:48:06 AM »

I wonder how many Scots will cynically vote for Leave to improve their (own) chances of independence.
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Angel of Death
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Posts: 2,411
« Reply #9 on: June 19, 2016, 11:49:49 AM »

The prediction markets seem to be giving Remain a small bump after the murder.
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Angel of Death
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Posts: 2,411
« Reply #10 on: June 19, 2016, 12:03:07 PM »

Are there any estimates what times the results will be announced?

Funny, I was just about to post this useful election night guide:
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/19/eu-referendum-result-polls-britain-europe
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Angel of Death
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Posts: 2,411
« Reply #11 on: June 20, 2016, 02:25:01 PM »

Does the age divide suggest that a Brexit referendum might have had a better chance of succeeding some time in the past, because support depends on the age in which someone is living, or is it rather the opposite, because it depends on the age one has attained?
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Angel of Death
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Posts: 2,411
« Reply #12 on: June 21, 2016, 07:22:43 PM »

The New York Times brought up a good point by pointing out that voters are expecting Remain to win by a clear plurality, which is reportedly a better indicator than a normal poll of voting intentions:
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/21/upshot/telling-sign-many-supporters-of-brexit-expect-defeat.html
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Angel of Death
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Posts: 2,411
« Reply #13 on: June 22, 2016, 06:25:31 AM »

Anyone want to take a stab at what could be the bellwethers for this election, for any level of subdivision?
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Angel of Death
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Posts: 2,411
« Reply #14 on: June 23, 2016, 12:52:43 PM »

Remain is running away with it on the (prediction) markets.
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Angel of Death
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Posts: 2,411
« Reply #15 on: June 23, 2016, 04:05:57 PM »

Surprisingly, Nigel Farage himself immediately stated he thinks Remain has won.
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Angel of Death
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Posts: 2,411
« Reply #16 on: June 23, 2016, 04:17:04 PM »

84% turnout.

wow.

Folks on twitter saying that could F*** with the models the polls use.
Do you have a source on this?

Sky News is giving an estimated turnout of 83.7%.
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Angel of Death
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Posts: 2,411
« Reply #17 on: June 29, 2016, 11:31:54 AM »

I see the great spinning has started already, where, if the EU doesn't roll over and allow the UK to have its cake and eat it too, specifically allow them inside the Single Market without freedom of movement, it's "just the Euros being vindictive".
It literally makes no sense for anyone, including Jeremy Hunt, to expect a better deal outside than inside.
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