United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership

[AuH2O Republican]

What are the odds of Cameron resigning if leave wins?

The only way I see Cameron staying on with enough legitimacy to keep going is if the In vote wins by a large margin.

[AuH2O Republican]

Remain: 52%
Leave: 48%

Turnout: 58%

I second this prediction, although turnout will be 70-80%. Obviously a poor barometer, but it seems a lot of people I speak to and are on my Facebook are very apolitical and voting for the first time ever.

[AuH2O Republican]

Politico.eu is reporting on a late poll from ComRes, giving Remain a 54-46 victory after undecideds are accounted for. I am taking this with a rather large pinch of salt, considering how wrong the polls were with the 2015 GE.

I am sure it is not worth bothering to stay up tonight to watch Dimbleby and Vine ramble on if the results won't be known till the morning. I will wait for my 6am work alarm I think.

[AuH2O Republican]

That is a fantastic map, and shows just how much UKIP over-performs in EU elections.

1. No. If some of these are pluralities, as you suggest, then it could be that a majority of non-UKIP voters in a UKIP area are for Remain.

2. Only because it is local to me (and I used to live there), but Eastleigh. There is a strong Lib Dem presence there - 38 of the 44 seats on the council are controlled by Lib Dems, and the by-election there in 2013 was the only Lib Dem by-election victory in Coalition government. Some of the area falls under Steve Brine's Winchester constituency, and he's Remain (although Eastleigh's actual MP is for Leave).

3. I am guessing a Northern constituency, where UKIP are competitive with Labour?

4. I work in Winchester (and again, used to live there too!) and there is overwhelming support for Remain, judging by all the signs, and presence from Remain campaigners in the city centre. Boris Johnson was heckled very loudly when he came to speak a few weeks ago.

5. Don't know about PC, but my guess is that SNP areas are likely to be some of the most pro-EU areas in the country. It has to be between Scotland and Northern Ireland for part of the UK that votes most in favour of staying in.