United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership

[ChrisDR68]

We don't know when it will be or exactly what we'll be voting on of course so we must be careful about how we speculate, but there's a decent chance that turnout could be rather low; say around 50% or so.

You would have thought that if turnout is in that range that would probably help the out campaign as their voters are likely to be more engaged and motivated over this major national issue.

[ChrisDR68]

Given that "ever closer union" between the Eurozone countries is inevitable in order to make the Euro work properly could associate member status be a realistic compromise option for the UK moving forward as explained in this article?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-20875755 

In my view a federal superstate involving the countries in the Eurozone is going to happen sooner or later and it's not in the UK's interests to be absorbed into such a structure due to the loss of democratic accountability (you can't vote out a distant European government) and the loss of economic sovereignty (as has been demonstrated in many Mediterranean countries during the current Euro crisis where they have been unable to devalue in order to kick start their economies and have been forced into internal devaluations instead which are much more painful and take much longer to work).

Associate member status may well suit other countries in the EU that are not in the Eurozone as well such as Sweden, Hungary, Denmark and the Czech Republic. 

[ChrisDR68]

So anyone wishing to call it this far out? I'm bored so I'll give it a go.

I'll say that the UK will vote to stay in about 53-47

I think it will be more comfortable than this. Perhaps 60-40 for staying in.

The annoying thing about the EU debate (I'm watching a re-run of Question Time as they talk about this subject as I type this) is that it's about the wrong things in my view.

It should be about the tunnel vision that most of the European political class have about creating a federal European superstate. Something they have had since the 1950's.

Is this a good idea?
Is it a democratic idea?
Should the UK and the other EU countries outside the Eurozone join this federal superstate?

Those are the questions that should be being debated.

Instead we get talk about whether we feel European or not, being or not being little Englanders and about immigration.

It's all very frustrating

[ChrisDR68]

To be fair (in regards to Chris) it seems that the eurosceptics are just as guilty of overplaying the immigration card. I can't blame them - immigration is a tangible concept that inflames debate; matters of EU intergration is dull, overly wordy/constitutional and only enjoyed (on both sides) by about 1% of the population..

I agree that the public aren't particularly interested on the question of EU integration but... if you look at Greece this issue does matter a lot although the Greeks don't seem to understand that the underlying problem for their country is that they have the Euro (which means they can't externally devalue to make their economy more competitive) which they shouldn't have joined in the first place.

The Euro is a political project intended to push a federal European superstate forwards. It wasn't adopted for economic reasons. Something a lot of European politicians quite openly admit to as they themselves are committed federalists.

[ChrisDR68]

A Europeon superstate is geopolitically our best option.

Can you explain why?

Interesting article in the Independent about France's long term EU obsession (which also happens to be about this very subject):

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/greece-debt-crisis-live-franois-hollande-calls-for-a-eurozone-government-to-further-integrate-member-states--but-what-will-this-mean-for-britain-10400269.html   

[ChrisDR68]

A new Survation poll shows support for leaving at 51% and support for staying at 49%. This is the first time since November of 2014 that they have found a lead for the Out campaign.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/09/05/uk-britain-eu-poll-idUKKCN0R50X820150905

In my opinion, great news, UK can get out of this neo-liberal, undemocratic, austerity filth.

That's all to do with sharing a currency with other countries and being heavily in debt at the same time. If you go into such a currency you lose all national economic sovereignty. Pretty much akin to being in a financial straightjacket.

The obsession with creating a federal European superstate and the economic and democratic deficits that that inevitably entails (and the low growth and economic hardship that countries suffer along the way) is the reason I want the UK to leave the EU.

Not that I think for one moment the out campaign will win the upcoming referendum... at least this time round anyway.

[ChrisDR68]

I find it funny that in France, we would be at the same time cheering to the UK leaving the EU and jealous that they were able to do so.

It's also funny that it's the French political class above everyone else who have pushed the goal of a federal European superstate the hardest.

The Euro came into being with Germany as a part of the Eurozone mainly due to a deal between the two nation's governments whereby the French would agree to allow East and West Germany to unify so long as the Germans agreed to adopt the Euro. 

[ChrisDR68]

So the political career of either Boris or Dave may very well end in four months time.

Doubt it.

I think his reasoning is that being anti-EU is very popular with the Tory grass roots and whatever the referendum outcome that will leave him in good stead to win the party leadership election whenever that is.

That said whenever I've heard Boris talk about the EU he's always been anti ever closer union and the setting up of a federal superstate so it's not a surprise to me he's come out in favour of Brexit.

[ChrisDR68]

More interestingly, what is the SNP position. Will they propose an independent Scotland in EU referendum?

The SNP have made it clear that it would lead to another referendum. Current polls show that it would cause a big enough swing to put the Independence campaign in Scotland over the 50% mark.

http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/bookies-slash-odds-scottish-independence-7415275

I think Scotland will leave the UK sooner or later anyway for historical reasons. The EU referendum may be the catalyst but it looks to me as if it's inevitable.

[ChrisDR68]

Bit surprised Gisela Stewart is a Eurosceptic considering she was born in Germany

[ChrisDR68]

Wait, what? Didn't Owen et al break with Foot over, amongst other things, the precise issue of the latter's desire to pull the UK out of the EEC?

Ah but his point (which I agree with) is that the EEC that the UK joined in 1973 is very different to the present day EU.

Ted Heath (bless him) successfully pulled the wool over people's eyes (including a lot of politicians of that time) over the fundamental federalising nature of the European "project".

As an aside Heath made a very well attended speech in front of the shops right next to my house in 1975 during the referendum campaign. I remember my mum was buzzing over that for ages afterwards

[ChrisDR68]

Very interesting ending to this first episode of Nick Robinson's Europe: Them Or Us shown on BBC2 this week (the crucial bit starts at 57.20):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4HYnG84Ihyw

Right at the time of the UK's entry in 1973 the French president Pompidou wanted to set the agenda for the road ahead aiming at economic and monetary union which he suggested should be aimed for 1980.

Foreign secretary Sir Alec Douglas Hume read the message and said to Heath "I don't think the house will like this very much Ted".

Heath is said to have replied "But that Alec is what it's all about".

Replying to the interviewer after being reminded of this story years later Heath replied "Well that's what it was about. And we've have got it too".

Now you can argue about the merits about economic and monetary union (personally I think it's nuts and the countries of the Eurozone are condemning themselves to years or even decades of low growth because of it) but the irritating thing in the UK is that the EU enthusiasts never mention it. Their arguments are all about economics.

Wrong.

It's all about politics and always has been.

[ChrisDR68]

For anyone on here that refuses to believe a federal European superstate is just around the corner here is a quote from pages 4 and 5 from the Five President's Report written by Jean-Claude Juncker published last June:

Progress must happen on four fronts: first, towards a genuine Economic Union that ensures each economy has the structural features to prosper within the Monetary Union. Second, towards a Financial Union that guarantess the integrity of our currency across the Monetary Union and increaes risk-sharing with the private sector. This means completing the Banking Union and accelerating the Capital Markets Union. Third, towards a Fiscal Union that delivers both fiscal sustainability and fiscal stabilisation. And finally, towards a Political Union that provides the foundation for all of the above through genuine democratic accountability, legitimacy and institutional strengthening.

Once they reach the political union stage a federal European superstate will be a reality.

The bolded bits are in the original text so I copied it.

https://ec.europa.eu/priorities/sites/beta-political/files/5-presidents-report_en.pdf

[ChrisDR68]

The Democratic Accountability part of the 5-President's Report does not seem to envisage anything which would actually create democratic accountability.

It is not directly relevant to the present UK referendum, but I would suggest that democratic accountability would only be improved by abolishing the Commission and the Council (in its executive role) and replacing them with a European Union government responsible to the European Parliament. The Council and the Parliament could then take there proper democratic roles as a bicameral legislature, with each body having at the very least equal powers and the full right to initiate and amend legislation on any European Union competence.

My suggestions may not deal with the objection that there can be no true democratic accountability, because there is no real European polity. It is far more likely to create something useful than the bureaucratic and diplomatic waffle of the 5-President's Report.

Personally I think it would be better to scrap this whole complicated structure entirely and go back to having independent sovereign countries co-operating on trade and foreign affairs issues in their mutual national interests similiar to how the old EEC operated in the 1970's and 1980's.

First to go should be the single currency. The Eurozone economy won't recover until that is dispensed with. It just depends on how stubborn the Franco-German axis is in supporting it. So far they've been very, very stubborn.

[ChrisDR68]

The turnout in the AV Referendum in 2011 was 42% and in the general election last year it was 66%. Split the difference and you get 54%.

That sounds about right in this EU Referendum I think.

On the question on which result is best for the Labour Party my own feeling is that a Leave victory would be best electorally for them.

At the last general election around a million traditional Labour voters switched to UKIP. Given that around 40% of Labour voters are Eurosceptic a Remain win could well see another million defect at the next general election given the overwhelming (and unrepresentative) pro-EU stance of Labour MP's in the House of Commons.

It could be pretty much a win-win situation for UKIP. Leave wins and their whole reason for being has come to pass. Remain wins and they shoot up in the opinion polls in a similar way (although less so obviously) to the SNP following their independence referendum in Scotland.

[ChrisDR68]

I think you're overstaying the importance of the EU (as opposed to immigration) for the base. The EU is an issue that certain activists (pro and con) get worked up about, not real people.

As for UKIP, it depends on whether they keep a united shop between their two factions. Worst thing for them would be the Tories swiftly moving populist right by dropping The Chipping Norton Set and invading their niche.

The EU and immigration are synonymous in many people's minds though (rightly or wrongly) which largely explains why the leave campaign is competitive at all in this referendum (the question of national sovereignty and parliamentary democracy doesn't cut through with voters much at all by way of comparison).

That explains why UKIP did so well in northern working class towns in the 2015 general election and could increasingly do so in the future if Remain wins this referendum.

[ChrisDR68]

Calls today for Corbyn to do more in this referendum.

Considering he is on record as wanting more immigration into this country while two thirds of the population regard it as out of control I can't see him getting more involved will do anything other than help the Leave campaign.

Their spokespeople will simply quote his statements and speeches on the subject. The other thing they could (and probably will) do is to quote what he's said in the past extolling his long held scepticism on the European Union.

[ChrisDR68]

Here's my guess of how each of the 12 regions of the UK will vote from north to south:

Scotland - Heavily remain as the Scots have been pro EU for a long time.
Northern Ireland - Heavily remain possibly due to high EU funding there.
North East - Moderately leave with the EU fisheries policy being a major issue in the area.
Yorkshire & Humber - Moderately leave as the no nonsense Yorks people dislike all the nonsense from the EU
North West - Comfortably remain as the big cities will vote heavily in that direction.
West Midlands - Moderately remain due to worries over what might happen to manufacturing after a Brexit vote.
East Midlands - Heavily leave due to concerns over immigration in a mainly agricultural local economy.
Wales - Narrowly remain influenced by the Labour Party's pro EU stance.
East Anglia - Heavily leave for the same reason as the East Midlands.
South East - Comfortably leave due to immigration as it's the gateway into the UK from continental Europe.
London - Heavily remain as the city is the most cosmopolitan and multicultural in the country.
South West - Heavily leave due to immigration and their non-conformist local identity.

So that's potentially 6 regions for Remain and 6 regions for Leave.

The majority of the most densely populated areas are in favour of Remain if my guesswork is anything like correct which makes them firm favourites at this stage. Still could be an exciting referendum results night on tv though!

[ChrisDR68]

I think it's fair enough to say that a campaign which seems almost entirely based on opposition to immigration and fantasies about how everything would be wonderful if only immigrants could be excluded, and whose leading politician makes comparisons between the EU and Hitler is appealing to xenophobia.

I've already voted (for Brexit) by post based on the sovereignty issue and a deep suspicion of the direction the EU is headed (a United States Of Europe). A direction it's always headed in since it's founding in the 1950's.

It's not all about immigration and to call all Brexiters xenophobic and racist is weak and lazy.

[ChrisDR68]

John Major's commentary on the Leave campaign is pretty brutal for such a dull technocrat.

Major failed to use the UK's veto at the Maastricht Treaty negotiations in order to block the creation of the Euro.

He bares an enormous responsibility for the economic pain in southern Europe (the PIGS) over the last several years given that the single currency is largely responsible for it.

As a result he has zero credibility on the UK's relationship with the European Project.

[ChrisDR68]

  Have the postal ballots been sent out yet?  And what % of the electorate would be expected to vote by mail?

I got my postal ballot paper last Tuesday, filled it in on Thursday and posted it on my work to work  Friday morning.

No idea what the percentage of votes will be by post though although I bet it's a bit like home shopping with groceries... growing in popularity all the time.

[ChrisDR68]

Very curious now as to what the turnout will be; on the one hand this referendum hasn't gripped the public imagination at all (even less than a GE does actually) but on the other people do seem to understand that it's important.

Would you say that low turnout favours one side or another? It seems that it would be better for the more passionate side, which, appears to be Leave.

That's the theory.

Older voters are more in favour of Brexit and are more likely to vote. Presumably that's why Cameron has extended the voter registration deadline (in order for more of the younger voters to register).

He's absolutely shameless

No wonder a lot of his own backbenchers gave him a hard time today at PM's questions. Richly deserved imo.

[ChrisDR68]

The deadline was extended because the registration website crashed for the last two hours before the wind closed. That is before you even get on to the ridiculous backwardness of the new requirement for individual registration.

There also does seem to be an irony in the Brexit gang complaining about people having the vote seeing their a major part of their campaign is about how "undemocratic" Brussels is.

The website crashed for precisely 1 hour and 45 minutes last night so obviously you extend the deadline by 48 hours even though it's set in law. Stands to reason really.

Cameron and the rest of the Remainers are completely transparent in how they're manipulating this referendum.

[ChrisDR68]

Lord Bamford's letter to his employees from June 7th:





His last sentence sums up this referendum for me:

Finally, if the democratic decision after 23rd June is to remain, it will be interesting to see how the UK fits into the EU of the future, given that fiscal and political union remains it's ultimate goal.

That's the crux of it for me. The European project has had this federalising ambition from the get go and our being a member of it for 43 years hasn't changed that one iota

[ChrisDR68]

Interesting, thanks.  I'd have expected LDs to be stronger Remainers than Labour, rather than the same?  And 5% of UKIP voters don't seem to understand the question.

Well... speaking of personal experience my sister is one of them. She's worried about immigration and can't stand Labour or the Tories so she votes UKIP as a protest.

On this referendum she's been taken in by all the economic scare stories so she's almost certain to vote Remain.

Don't worry I've had a go at her several times pointing out the illogical and contradictory positions she holds but she says she wants stability more than controls on migration (although obviously she wants both).