United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership

[Vega]

Whisper it quietly but there's actually a chance that a vote to leave the EU would not ultimately result in Britain leaving (i.e. if the terms negotiated were not popular, etc). The political consequences - especially within the Conservative Party - would be something else of course, Jesus.

low turnout and extremely narrow margin could make the referendum decision less stark and give rise to reason for Parliament to make it owns mind on the issue.

If that happened I can't imagine that going over well with voters

It would be a really poor idea if they did that given how passionate Leave people are and certainly would be. UKIP would probably gain an untold of number of seats.

[jaichind]

The best case for UKIP would be for Leave to lose by very narrow margin.  They can then blame the shooting for the defeat and claim that they won morally and then scoop up all the various Eurosceptic votes from CON and partly LAB as well next general election.

[Cassius]

Well, this is exactly the kind of patronising bullsh**t floating around my fb feed that eventually made me swing back to voting leave after briefly flirting with voting to remain (because I highly doubt that the referendum will be so close as to hinge on one vote). I mean, the idea that our leaving the EU will mean we cease to be a 'big player' (whatever that means) in the world is rather specious to say the least, given that we will continue to have one of the largest armies and independent nuclear deterrents in the west, one of the largest financial services centres in the world, a permanent seat on the UN Security Council and representation in the G8 and G20.

 As for being a 'big player' in Europe, I think our weak position in Europe has largely been exposed by this referendum campaign - Cameron's much vaunted renegotiation of our relationship with the EU turned out to be a damp squib, and even the 'concessions' extracted there are the absolute maximum that we'll be able to wring from the EU, according to Jean Claude Juncker at least. We've also signed away our control over our own trade policy as a member of the EU (a fact that, ironically, pushed me towards the Remain camp, as our existing trade deals through the EU will be rendered null and void by leaving) and control over various other areas of policy that should be in the hands of the British policy (although not to the extent that the Leave campaign has made out). We've always had what amounts to an adversarial relationship with the EU, remaining (correctly in my view) outside of key developments in that institution over the years (the Euro and Schengen to name but two), which has also reduced our influence in Europe, as we are correctly perceived as not being fully committed to the European project. This will not change in the aftermath of the referendum, one way or another.

Boiling important political discussion down to silly and patronising memes isn't really helpful, especially when those memes put across points that are basically blatant fabrications.

You changed your vote because of Facebook memes?

Haha, not specifically, although that meme did jog my memory of it being shared by a couple of my Remain friends on FB. It does however fit into the smug, condescending view held by many Remain voters that basically all leave voters are uncouth, ill-educated, knuckle-dragging bigots who have been tricked by evil right-wing politicians, whilst they themselves are all upstanding, intellectual forward looking people to whom tomorrow belongs, once all those nasty old people die off (as one of my Remain friends commented). I'm not going to deny that there are good reasons to vote to remain - the trouble is the Remain campaign's hordes of supporters rarely espouse these views, they mostly just spew distortions of reality (a la that meme), ad hominem attacks on Leave voters and politicians of the kind I summed up and bogus lines of thought (Jean Claude Juncker, Donald Tusk and Angela Merkel are fluffy social democrats that wants to protect workers rights from the evil Tories). Of course, much of the same, in reverse, can be found on the Leave side, but ultimately I had to make a choice l, and given my one vote is incredibly unlikely to swing the referendum I voted to leave rather than be on the same side as this shower.

[ChrisDR68]

Although I've heard Boris mention it a few times in speeches on the stump very little has been said about where exactly the European Union is ultimately headed to.

Almost no mention of it has come from the Remain camp. Maybe the pan European state that the EU eventually wants to become is secretly popular with pro Remain UK politicians.

Another very good reason not to trust our current political class an inch on the European issue.

[afleitch]

Reports of 70-80% turnout.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Just met NICK CLEGG


YEAH BOI

[ChrisDR68]

John Curtice at What UK Thinks:

At the same time, what is clear is that, despite the fact that there has been some recovery in Remain support since last week, its position is still much weaker than it was before the official period of campaigning began on May 27. Once we strip out the effect of the various methodological changes that the companies have made during the intervening period, every single pollster has registered a substantial swing to Leave during this period. It would appear that, whatever emerges from the ballot boxes tonight, it is Leave that won the referendum campaign.

http://whatukthinks.org/eu/how-leave-won-the-battle-but-remain-may-still-win-the-war/

[the506]

Out on a limb: 55-45 Remain.

Also....if any of you have the extra super deluxe cable, BBC World will be showing the David Dimbleby coverage tonight.

[Omega21]

Who benefits most from high turnout, Remain or Leave?

[Angel of Death]

Remain is running away with it on the (prediction) markets.

[Classic Conservative]

What time EST will the BBC broadcast begin and I found a link to BBC 1, live stream.
http://www.zoptv.com/live/bbc-one

Can one of the posters that live in the UK verify that, that stream is the actual live stream.

[IceAgeComing]

Well that's not an official BBC1 stream; and I don't have Flash on my Macbook so can't tell you whether its showing BBC1 on something else.  I imagine that CSpan will show something at least; they did for the Independence Referendum at least...

The Referendum night programme is starting at 9:55 BST (I think that's 4:55 EDT); although the first few hours will be them talking about twitter rumours because the first results aren't going to be until Sunderland at 12:30 Friday Morning

[Tender Branson]

Who benefits most from high turnout, Remain or Leave?

Probably remain, because more younger people are voting with high turnout.

But it's not 100% certain that big turnout would benefit remain.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Be careful about turnout rumours; except in very general terms they're wrong more often than they're right.

But I think we can be sure there's been a good turnout at least.

[Dan the Roman]

So weather in London has been dreadful. Hot, humid, intermittent brutal showers, and flooding which has shutdown transportation. The boyfriend, who finished exams on friday and needed to get to South London to vote(he is for remain) is stuck on an Oxford to London bus for the third hour on what is supposed to be a 90 minute trip and is not half done. Odds of him getting to vote at all are probably around 40%, and he is far from alone. The nature of the electoral register, the need to vote at home, and the weather are meaning that the situation in London is bad.

[Crumpets]

There are reports that the Tube is very crowded and there are a lot of issues with delays - maybe putting a dent in London turnout.

[Omega21]

So weather in London has been dreadful. Hot, humid, intermittent brutal showers, and flooding which has shutdown transportation. The boyfriend, who finished exams on friday and needed to get to South London to vote(he is for remain) is stuck on an Oxford to London bus for the third hour on what is supposed to be a 90 minute trip and is not half done. Odds of him getting to vote at all are probably around 40%, and he is far from alone. The nature of the electoral register, the need to vote at home, and the weather are meaning that the situation in London is bad.

London is mainly remain, right?

Think things like this will have a big impact on the vote?

[Dan the Roman]

So weather in London has been dreadful. Hot, humid, intermittent brutal showers, and flooding which has shutdown transportation. The boyfriend, who finished exams on friday and needed to get to South London to vote(he is for remain) is stuck on an Oxford to London bus for the third hour on what is supposed to be a 90 minute trip and is not half done. Odds of him getting to vote at all are probably around 40%, and he is far from alone. The nature of the electoral register, the need to vote at home, and the weather are meaning that the situation in London is bad.

London is mainly remain, right?

Think things like this will have a big impact on the vote?

Young remainers think they will. I personally suspect the impact will be marginal(10-15K reduced margin for Remain) though it will be concentrated among the loudest and politically engaged young voters. Oxbridge had their last exams today meaning anyone wanting to vote had to get home after exams which is looking impossible across the board. In the nationwide tallies, preventing Oxford students from voting really does not matter. Perceptionally it is huge.

[joevsimp]

Just met NICK CLEGG


YEAH BOI

I saw Alan Johnson at Borough Market this morning, lots of I'M IN stickers handed out and seemed in a chipper mood.

regarding the weather, my mum lives in Havering, a London borough that will probably vote 75% leave, there was bad flooding, mostly of major road junctions. might be interesting to see whether turnout is significantly lower there

[Hnv1]

So weather in London has been dreadful. Hot, humid, intermittent brutal showers, and flooding which has shutdown transportation. The boyfriend, who finished exams on friday and needed to get to South London to vote(he is for remain) is stuck on an Oxford to London bus for the third hour on what is supposed to be a 90 minute trip and is not half done. Odds of him getting to vote at all are probably around 40%, and he is far from alone. The nature of the electoral register, the need to vote at home, and the weather are meaning that the situation in London is bad.

London is mainly remain, right?

Think things like this will have a big impact on the vote?

Young remainers think they will. I personally suspect the impact will be marginal(10-15K reduced margin for Remain) though it will be concentrated among the loudest and politically engaged young voters. Oxbridge had their last exams today meaning anyone wanting to vote had to get home after exams which is looking impossible across the board. In the nationwide tallies, preventing Oxford students from voting really does not matter. Perceptionally it is huge.

Well around 30K England supporters in France probably mostly leave voters. This little dips go for both sides

[Ebsy]

lol turnout reports in the UK are never reliable.

[Green Line]

Was there early voting?

[Ebsy]

Was there early voting?

There was postal voting.

[IceAgeComing]

Was there early voting?

Postal voting; and Proxy voting for those that were very late in applying for a postal vote

Early voting isn't a thing in the UK

[Classic Conservative]

There was a Snapchat that, I just watched and the lady was saying that she was voting out because she wanted "Leave the UK". Lol