United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership
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Author Topic: United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership  (Read 175439 times)
World politics is up Schmitt creek
Nathan
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« Reply #600 on: June 23, 2016, 01:34:03 AM »

Somebody asked over three hundred Edinburgh-area Grindr users their opinions on the referendum. Of these, Grindr User Stephen has pretty much my exact opinion.
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Sbane
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« Reply #601 on: June 23, 2016, 02:12:06 AM »

I am going to go with 46% Leave and 54% Remain.
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AuH2O Republican
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« Reply #602 on: June 23, 2016, 03:02:54 AM »

Politico.eu is reporting on a late poll from ComRes, giving Remain a 54-46 victory after undecideds are accounted for. I am taking this with a rather large pinch of salt, considering how wrong the polls were with the 2015 GE.

I am sure it is not worth bothering to stay up tonight to watch Dimbleby and Vine ramble on if the results won't be known till the morning. I will wait for my 6am work alarm I think.
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Donnie
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« Reply #603 on: June 23, 2016, 03:28:00 AM »

Remain: 53%
Leave: 47%
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Gary J
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« Reply #604 on: June 23, 2016, 03:33:41 AM »

Question on the vote counting process.

From my understanding,
In a General Election, the ballots from each polling station are sent to a central 'Counting Room' in each of UK 650 ridings . Once all the ballots in the riding are counted. A riding official will announce the results, along side the candidates (and their huge ribbons). This process could take hours since it could take hours just to get  ballot boxes from the more remote locations.

Now, during the referendum ballot boxes will be sent to 382 local count venues.
Unlike in a general election where the numbers of voters is around the same. Local venues will very in size from 700,000 in Birmingham to 1,700 in the Isles of Scilly.

Why does UK count their ballots at these central counting station instead of the polling stations?

During elections in Canada they will count the ballots at the polling station, relay the results to Local Returning Officer, and the results are sent to central results system, where they are access to the media and the public. Most of the polling station take under 1 hour to count. You can get a projection in under an hour once the polls close in Central Canada. Unlike it the UK where you have to wait the following morning to actual results (not including the exit polls)

Tradition. This is the way we have counted votes since the introduction of the secret ballot in 1872. The parliamentary election practice was just adapted for referendums, when we started having them.
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afleitch
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« Reply #605 on: June 23, 2016, 04:38:47 AM »


That's genius.

Voted in North Kelvinside. By half 10 it looked like 20-30% had voted already. Not bad.
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Serenity Now
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« Reply #606 on: June 23, 2016, 05:10:31 AM »

For 'fun', here's the map of the 2014 European Parliament election.  Purple is UKIP, red is Labour, blue is Conservative, Yellow is SNP, Gold is Lib Dem and Green is Plaid Cymru.

The top three parties nationwide were UKIP (26.6%), Labour (24.4%) and the Conservatives (23.0%).  Turnout was a measly 35.6%.



Here are some fun questions to consider:

  • Are all of the UKIP areas likely to vote Leave?
  • Which UKIP area is most likely to vote to Remain, if any?
  • Which Labour areas are likely vote to Leave?
  • Which Conservative areas are likely to vote to Remain?
  • Are all SNP and PC areas likely to vote to Remain?

I don't wish to suggest that this map has any bearing on how the referendum  result will look, particularly as it reflects pluralities for multiple parties in a relatively obscure election on a crappy turnout, rather than a 'yes/no' question.
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AuH2O Republican
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« Reply #607 on: June 23, 2016, 05:31:15 AM »

That is a fantastic map, and shows just how much UKIP over-performs in EU elections.

1. No. If some of these are pluralities, as you suggest, then it could be that a majority of non-UKIP voters in a UKIP area are for Remain.

2. Only because it is local to me (and I used to live there), but Eastleigh. There is a strong Lib Dem presence there - 38 of the 44 seats on the council are controlled by Lib Dems, and the by-election there in 2013 was the only Lib Dem by-election victory in Coalition government. Some of the area falls under Steve Brine's Winchester constituency, and he's Remain (although Eastleigh's actual MP is for Leave).

3. I am guessing a Northern constituency, where UKIP are competitive with Labour?

4. I work in Winchester (and again, used to live there too!) and there is overwhelming support for Remain, judging by all the signs, and presence from Remain campaigners in the city centre. Boris Johnson was heckled very loudly when he came to speak a few weeks ago.

5. Don't know about PC, but my guess is that SNP areas are likely to be some of the most pro-EU areas in the country. It has to be between Scotland and Northern Ireland for part of the UK that votes most in favour of staying in.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #608 on: June 23, 2016, 06:00:34 AM »
« Edited: June 23, 2016, 06:40:48 AM by Sibboleth »

Ipsos-MORI's final poll is 52 R 48 L. Not sure what the figures are when undecideds are included so can't include in the table.
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #609 on: June 23, 2016, 06:03:30 AM »

Populus has Remain at a 55-45 lead, but the last public poll from them was in March and apparently they have been a private pollster for the Remain campaign.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #610 on: June 23, 2016, 06:09:34 AM »

Ipsos-MORI's final poll is 52 L 48 R. Not sure what the figures are when undecideds are included so can't include in the table.

The last Ipsos was 52R according to Twitter.
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cp
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« Reply #611 on: June 23, 2016, 06:19:13 AM »
« Edited: June 23, 2016, 06:22:10 AM by cp »

Confirmed. Remain 52, Leave 48
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Platypus
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« Reply #612 on: June 23, 2016, 06:35:17 AM »

I feel like this'll be ridiculously close and the result won't be known for days. Remain to edge it if pushed.
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« Reply #613 on: June 23, 2016, 06:40:53 AM »

Ipsos-MORI's final poll is 52 L 48 R. Not sure what the figures are when undecideds are included so can't include in the table.

I think it's the other way round? Unless I'm thinking of a different poll..
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #614 on: June 23, 2016, 06:41:07 AM »

Typo Sad
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #615 on: June 23, 2016, 06:52:30 AM »

I feel like this'll be ridiculously close and the result won't be known for days. Remain to edge it if pushed.

I disagree... I think we'll know surprisingly quickly.
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CountyTy90
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« Reply #616 on: June 23, 2016, 06:54:24 AM »

What time do the polls close and is there a link on BBC to watch live results here in the States?
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #617 on: June 23, 2016, 06:56:37 AM »

No idea about the link, but the polls close at 10pm UK time.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #618 on: June 23, 2016, 07:56:55 AM »

Thank you for making my day with this.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #619 on: June 23, 2016, 08:02:05 AM »

To our British friends who are voting remain:

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IceAgeComing
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« Reply #620 on: June 23, 2016, 08:06:14 AM »

The release of the all-important Grindr poll on election day is now the best thing

Although 81% Remain is about where I'd imagine Edinburgh Gay men who are active on a dating app would be
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windjammer
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« Reply #621 on: June 23, 2016, 08:17:01 AM »

Hopefully they will choose to leave!!!!
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #622 on: June 23, 2016, 08:17:52 AM »


This was epic.
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they don't love you like i love you
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« Reply #623 on: June 23, 2016, 08:33:41 AM »


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morgieb
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« Reply #624 on: June 23, 2016, 08:46:12 AM »

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