United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership

[afleitch]

The map itself is a model, but the spread of voting (even if the numbers aren't the same) looks plausible. It means we are now faced with a turnout battle. If support is strongly linked to rural/suburban v urban, then voting patterns would suggest that that should work in 'Leaves' favour.

What's fun about this is that the geographic In/Out patterns of support are basically the polar opposite of what they were in 1975.

[Angel of Death]

Anyone want to take a stab at what could be the bellwethers for this election, for any level of subdivision?

[jaichind]

Sorry if this got asked already.  But will there be exit polls coming out at 5pm? Will BBC do one ?

[IceAgeComing]

In terms of when we'll know it'll depend how close it is: if its not a 51/49 thriller then the result probably will be clear by 3am when the flood of results will begin; if its close it might go down to the later counting areas.

I'm not entirely sure how they're declaring the result: some people are saying that its by local authority areas which is how they are counting the votes; some are saying that although they're counting by those they'll declare it by EU Parliament regions which would just be odd.

No exit poll, there probably will be some private polling but who knows if you can trust that

[parochial boy]

some are saying that although they're counting by those they'll declare it by EU Parliament regions which would just be odd.

Where have you heard that? I have only heard that results are to be declared by Local Authorities.

As far as how results might go, Sunderland will be the first to declare, as always. Sunderland is relatively eurosceptic, I can't remember where I found it, but someone has calculated, based on the general Euroscepticism of the various parts of the UK, that Sunderland will probably be about 6% more "leave" than the country.

Although that clearly has to taken with a pinch of salt, and the margins of error are massive. It means we might be able to get some sort of picture relatively early on.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Sunderland also has the Nissan works at Washington so who knows. Admittedly not everyone who works there lives in the city, but it's worth bearing in mind.

[DL]

Final Survey Monkey out today: Remain 50% (+2), Leave 47% (-2)...they project that the final results will be Remain 52, Leave 48

Final Opinium out today: Remain 44% (unchanged), Leave 45% (+1)...so they have a largeish 9% still undecided.

My own prediction is that Remain will win 52/48

[Serenity Now]

some are saying that although they're counting by those they'll declare it by EU Parliament regions which would just be odd.

Where have you heard that? I have only heard that results are to be declared by Local Authorities.

As far as how results might go, Sunderland will be the first to declare, as always. Sunderland is relatively eurosceptic, I can't remember where I found it, but someone has calculated, based on the general Euroscepticism of the various parts of the UK, that Sunderland will probably be about 6% more "leave" than the country.

Although that clearly has to taken with a pinch of salt, and the margins of error are massive. It means we might be able to get some sort of picture relatively early on.

I really recommend reading the Chris Hanretty article which Parochial Boy has linked to.  It's very informative.

[ChrisDR68]

If it's true, enjoy your recession and unemployment spike. Frankly, the EU and Euro businesses should retreat from the UK if it gets up. This is about much more than the EU itself, how this hasn't filtered through is kind of remarkable... kind of cute that the UK thinks it's so important that there won't be REAL consequences to a 'leave' vote.

I actually don't think it'll happen. It'll be closer than it should be, but I think remain will just get up.

Can you give me next week's lottery numbers please as you obviously know what will happen in the future before it even happens?

[jimrtex]

The New York Times brought up a good point by pointing out that voters are expecting Remain to win by a clear plurality, which is reportedly a better indicator than a normal poll of voting intentions:
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/21/upshot/telling-sign-many-supporters-of-brexit-expect-defeat.html

A plurality?  Aren't there only two options on the ballot?

There were three options in the poll, which asked respondents what they expected would be the result.

40% Remain will win.
34% Don't know.
26% Leave will win.

The thesis of the article was that this was more predictive than the actual expressed intent of how they intended to vote.

[Vega]

You also have to take into account that Leave supporters are more likely to believe the vote will be "stolen" from them and take stock in various conspiracy theories.

[Tender Branson]

My final prediction:

53.6% Remain
46.4% Leave

Turnout: 70.3%

[jaichind]

Prediction

Remain 52
Leave   48

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Updated:

43% - TNS
45% - Opinium
44% - Survation
44% - YouGov
46% - ORB*
42% - Survation
43% - YouGov
44% - Opinium

_{*Much smaller undecided proportion than other surveys.}

[Rocky Rockefeller]

Preiction

Remain 52
Leave 48

Turnout 68%

[DL]

FWIW almost every poll out today shows a bit of a trend towards remain.

[The Other Castro]

Balls to the wall prediction: 64% Remain

That's not balls to the wall, that's booty to the ceiling.

[Clyde1998]

Balls to the wall prediction: 64% Remain

That would require a pretty sizeable shift in turnout patterns across the country. But I guess it's possible.

[Crumpets]

Do Brits love to cry voter fraud/election fraud as much as Americans when they don't get their way? I remember there was that picture of the "leave" ballot on the "stay" pile after the Scottish referendum that went viral.

[IceAgeComing]

No important person on either side took the "VOTER FRAUD!!!!" thing seriously at all in the independence referendum, mostly because they actually understand how the counting process works

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Hmmm... I'm going to say...

53.8% Remain.

[Vega]

If Leave wins I think undoubtedly there will be many who will say that the 'fix was in'. Whether that message is picked up by anyone is questionable.

[trebor204]

Question on the vote counting process.

From my understanding,
In a General Election, the ballots from each polling station are sent to a central 'Counting Room' in each of UK 650 ridings . Once all the ballots in the riding are counted. A riding official will announce the results, along side the candidates (and their huge ribbons). This process could take hours since it could take hours just to get  ballot boxes from the more remote locations.

Now, during the referendum ballot boxes will be sent to 382 local count venues.
Unlike in a general election where the numbers of voters is around the same. Local venues will very in size from 700,000 in Birmingham to 1,700 in the Isles of Scilly.

Why does UK count their ballots at these central counting station instead of the polling stations?

During elections in Canada they will count the ballots at the polling station, relay the results to Local Returning Officer, and the results are sent to central results system, where they are access to the media and the public. Most of the polling station take under 1 hour to count. You can get a projection in under an hour once the polls close in Central Canada. Unlike it the UK where you have to wait the following morning to actual results (not including the exit polls)

[Green Line]

I think it's funny that the Independence Day sequel is being released today. Lol.

[cp]

Balls to the wall prediction: 64% Remain

That's not balls to the wall, that's booty to the ceiling.

I like you two

Well, the big day is here. Let's hope this thing turns out right. /YouGov has a final poll out showing Remain ahead 51/49. Their data are in line with previous polls and other pollsters on the break pattern of undecideds (2:1 for remain), the salience of specific issues to voters (Economy first, 'sovereignty' a close second, immigration an increasingly distant third), and likelihood to vote (Remains shoring up, Leave slightly wilting).

FWIW, my prediction is ...

Remain: 54.1%
Leave: 47.9

Turnout: 79%