United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership
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December 08, 2021, 06:21:43 PM

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  United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership
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Author Topic: United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership  (Read 149184 times)
Angel of Death
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« Reply #550 on: June 21, 2016, 07:22:43 PM »

The New York Times brought up a good point by pointing out that voters are expecting Remain to win by a clear plurality, which is reportedly a better indicator than a normal poll of voting intentions:
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/21/upshot/telling-sign-many-supporters-of-brexit-expect-defeat.html
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #551 on: June 21, 2016, 07:25:10 PM »

The New York Times brought up a good point by pointing out that voters are expecting Remain to win by a clear plurality, which is reportedly a better indicator than a normal poll of voting intentions:
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/21/upshot/telling-sign-many-supporters-of-brexit-expect-defeat.html

A plurality?  Aren't there only two options on the ballot?
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #552 on: June 21, 2016, 08:04:19 PM »

It will be 50-50 and will go through 35 recounts Sad

God I hope not. I'll have to sleep some time on Friday morning.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #553 on: June 21, 2016, 08:09:07 PM »

It will be 50-50 and will go through 35 recounts Sad

God I hope not. I'll have to sleep some time on Friday morning.

British law does not mandate recounts. Each council will declare final results for their area, which can be only changed by court.
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Matty
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« Reply #554 on: June 21, 2016, 08:45:45 PM »

Someone on another forum is spreading a rumor that internal polling in clacton has it 52-48 for leave.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #555 on: June 21, 2016, 09:07:47 PM »

Someone on another forum is spreading a rumor that internal polling in clacton has it 52-48 for leave.
Another marty scoop I suppose.
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #556 on: June 21, 2016, 09:28:24 PM »

PEOPLE NOTHING YOU WILL HEAR BEFORE 10PM GMT ON THURSDAY IS LIKELY TO BE ANY GOOD (and not much in the few hours after will be worth much either).
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Green Line
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« Reply #557 on: June 21, 2016, 09:47:37 PM »

A vote to exit would still require Parliaments approval, right?  Is it possible then that a massive devaluation of the pound and a huge market sell off could make Parliament balk at leaving?
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Classic Conservative
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« Reply #558 on: June 21, 2016, 10:13:14 PM »

Someone on another forum is spreading a rumor that internal polling in clacton has it 52-48 for leave.
Is that a supposed remain, leave or both area?
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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #559 on: June 21, 2016, 10:26:48 PM »

Someone on another forum is spreading a rumor that internal polling in clacton has it 52-48 for leave.
Is that a supposed remain, leave or both area?
Its the area where UKIP has an MP, so very bad for Leave if true.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #560 on: June 21, 2016, 11:38:08 PM »

I'd be very surprised if "leave" wins out.

Remain: 54%
Leave: 46%
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Crumpets
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« Reply #561 on: June 22, 2016, 01:04:08 AM »

Some interesting analytics people might enjoy:

http://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2016-brexit-watch/
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YL
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« Reply #562 on: June 22, 2016, 01:33:37 AM »

Someone on another forum is spreading a rumor that internal polling in clacton has it 52-48 for leave.
Is that a supposed remain, leave or both area?
Its the area where UKIP has an MP, so very bad for Leave if true.

It's dire for Leave if accurate, but rumoured internal polling?  Excuse me while I find several pinches of salt.
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morgieb
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« Reply #563 on: June 22, 2016, 02:39:29 AM »

Will the votes take forever to count like most British elections?
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Terry the Fat Shark
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« Reply #564 on: June 22, 2016, 02:46:12 AM »

My pick: Leave - 51.5 Remain - 48.5
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andrew_c
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« Reply #565 on: June 22, 2016, 02:53:29 AM »

A vote to exit would still require Parliaments approval, right?
Techincally, it is possible for Parliament to defy the will of the people, but it would be political suicide for a government to do so. 
Will the votes take forever to count like most British elections?
Most likely. Results are expected to be declared later than usual general elections, as voter turnout will most likely be very high.
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Terry the Fat Shark
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« Reply #566 on: June 22, 2016, 02:57:54 AM »

Jenny Watson, chair of the Electoral Commission of the UK said: I'll be announcing around breakfast time on Friday. Whether it's an early breakfast or a late breakfast, I don't know."
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Gass3268
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« Reply #567 on: June 22, 2016, 03:22:22 AM »

Any word if C-SPAN is planning on covering this?
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ChrisDR68
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« Reply #568 on: June 22, 2016, 03:46:40 AM »

A map from Yovgov,  Blue Leave and Red Remain



As someone who has wanted the UK to leave the EU ever since the first Euro crisis suddenly erupted in 2009 showing everyone just how fundamentally incompetent this organisation is that map is very encouraging.

We'll know how accurate it is by mid Friday morning Smiley
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #569 on: June 22, 2016, 03:55:11 AM »

If it's true, enjoy your recession and unemployment spike. Frankly, the EU and Euro businesses should retreat from the UK if it gets up. This is about much more than the EU itself, how this hasn't filtered through is kind of remarkable... kind of cute that the UK thinks it's so important that there won't be REAL consequences to a 'leave' vote.

I actually don't think it'll happen. It'll be closer than it should be, but I think remain will just get up.
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Unimog
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« Reply #570 on: June 22, 2016, 03:57:50 AM »

Remain 55,5%

Leave  44,5%

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Serenity Now
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« Reply #571 on: June 22, 2016, 05:41:20 AM »

A map from Yovgov,  Blue Leave and Red Remain



I'm surprised that the welsh valleys are leaning leave, and North East of England is leaning leave!?

It's a shame tho, no break down of Northern Ireland

It's also a bit weird that they're using parliamentary constituencies, rather than local authorities, but I guess they're basing this on voting patterns data.  Like I did with that very crude and crappy (but fun) map I made a while back.
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tomm_86
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« Reply #572 on: June 22, 2016, 05:44:02 AM »

A map from Yovgov,  Blue Leave and Red Remain



I'm surprised that the welsh valleys are leaning leave, and North East of England is leaning leave!?

It's a shame tho, no break down of Northern Ireland

It's also a bit weird that they're using parliamentary constituencies, rather than local authorities, but I guess they're basing this on voting patterns data.  Like I did with that very crude and crappy (but fun) map I made a while back.

Just from looking at the Lib Dem areas I'd say they're defo basing this on General Election voting patterns (which probably isn't the best thing to do given this referendum cuts across those lines).
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tomm_86
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« Reply #573 on: June 22, 2016, 05:48:48 AM »

PEOPLE NOTHING YOU WILL HEAR BEFORE 10PM GMT ON THURSDAY IS LIKELY TO BE ANY GOOD (and not much in the few hours after will be worth much either).

This. However, it would be hilarious if Plymouth and Clacton were somehow 70% and 52% Leave respectively.  Of course we won't know the result for the latter, but for the local authority it is located in instead (Tendring).
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bore
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« Reply #574 on: June 22, 2016, 06:02:25 AM »

The New York Times brought up a good point by pointing out that voters are expecting Remain to win by a clear plurality, which is reportedly a better indicator than a normal poll of voting intentions:
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/21/upshot/telling-sign-many-supporters-of-brexit-expect-defeat.html

A plurality?  Aren't there only two options on the ballot?

Yeah, though some people spoil their ballots by voting for both options or drawing a penis or whatever (0.09% in the scottish independence for example, although I expect it to be a wee bit higher given both campaigns have been even worse than the ones for that referendum) so a plurality is technically possible, but very very unlikely.
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