United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership

[Vega]

Is it at all likely that this will have an impact on the vote, as tragic as it is?

[cp]

This is all just terrible

Is it at all likely that this will have an impact on the vote, as tragic as it is?

In the spirit of answering the question without being bone-chillingly craven and cynical, events like these in the past have tended not to affect votes per se, but the reactions to them have.

 - The 2004 Atocha bombing during Spain's general election didn't itself cause a big shift of votes, but when the Aznar government tried to pin it on ETA despite evidence that it was Al Qaeda, voters turned against them.

 - In a more sinister example, the 1933 Reichstag fire came 6 days before an election. It probably didn't shift any votes, but it did give the Nazis the political leverage they needed to (further) suppress their political opponents, both during and after the campaign.

 - In a comparatively ridiculous final example, a few days before Obama was elected in 2008 some dopey person 'attacked' herself by carving a 'B' into her cheek. Hilariously, she did it in a mirror so the 'B' was backwards. It didn't sway any votes but it did reveal the gulf between the intensity of the anti-Obama rhetoric and the political reality on the ground.

What might be said about these sorts of incidents generally is that they apply a great deal of pressure on all actors involved. Those parties under the greatest strain already end up losing. Which side that applies to best in this referendum is perhaps a matter of debate, but I doubt the Remain folks are sweating as much as the Leavers right now.

[Beezer]

I'd say the most similar example was already mentioned: Anna Lindh, who was pro-euro and killed a mere 3 days ahead of the referendum. The "no" side still won comfortably.

[LLR]

I know most people here hate 538, but here's a piece on Brexit and the economy:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-brexit-could-mean-for-the-economy/

[ChrisDR68]

With just 5 full days to go here's my stab at predicting the result:

United Kingdom
European Union Referendum
Thursday 23rd June 2016

Remain in the European Union____48.6%____13,046,739
Leave the European Union_______51.4%____13,801,177  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
___________________________100.0%____26,847,916
--------------------------------------------------------------------------

Leave majority of 754,438 votes or 2.8% on a 58.8% turnout


_________________Remain_Leave___Turnout___Electorate_____Remain Votes_Leave Votes
Scotland____________63.9__36.1____79.2%____3,893,268______1,970,336____1,113,132
Northern Ireland______61.7__38.3____73.6%____1,198,966_______ 544,465_____337,974
North East___________46.2__53.8____52.7%____1,968,137_______ 479,190_____558,018
Yorkshire and Humber__41.5__58.5____56.1%____3,835,075_______892,863____1,258,614
North West__________51.4___48.6___55.8%____5,239,323______1,502,701____1,420,842        
Wales______________50.7___49.3____50.1%____2,268,739_______576,276_____560,363
West Midlands_______47.3___52.7____52.3%____4,093,521______1,012,651____1,128,260
East Midlands________39.4___60.6____58.4%____3,348,469_______770,469____1,185,03
East Anglia__________40.1___59.9____59.6%____4,263,006_____1,018,841____1,521,910
London_____________56.9__43.1_____51.5%____5,258,802_____1,541,013____1,167,270
South East___________44.4__55.6_____61.1%____6,288,366_____1,705,933___2,136,259
South West__________42.2__57.8_____60.7%____4,028,829_____1,032,001____1,413,498

_________________________________________45,684,501____13,046,739___13,801,177


Based on the electorates for the AV Referendum in 2011 (which are out-of-date but I couldn't find more up-to-date figures) that I found here:

http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/find-information-by-subject/elections-and-referendums/past-elections-and-referendums/referendums/2011-UK-referendum-on-the-voting-system-used-to-elect-MPs

By the way I'm aware the total electorates and the votes cast don't add up to the same number in each region. I guess that's what happens sometimes when you do a percentage of a percentage

[rob in cal]

  Chris, hopefully your prediction is correct.  I wonder about the London figures. The leave number is pretty strong, but maybe that's a function of overall Leave momentum. Btw, are the East Midlands generally considered the strongest Leave area?

[cp]

New poll shows a tie

Remain: 48
Leave: 48

[Vega]

New poll shows a tie

Remain: 48
Leave: 48

Methodology is probably wrong given the pollster.

[jaichind]

Exclusive poll: EU support falls after Jo Cox murder

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2016/06/17/exclusive-poll-eu-support-falls-after-jo-cox-murder/86031038/

[IceAgeComing]

I think that NBC/Survey Monkey are alright in American polling but honestly who knows how they'll do this this; I think that no one knows exactly what to poll

I don't trust that USA Today thing; simply because I don't know anything about that polling company that they've mentioned and you shouldn't trust any polling agency that doesn't release accurate tables for that sort of thing.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Cameron already stated what they (Tory govt) want to negotiate with the EU as for the form of relations between EU-UK? Some sort of association? Free trade area maybe?

[parochial boy]

I think that NBC/Survey Monkey are alright in American polling but honestly who knows how they'll do this this; I think that no one knows exactly what to poll

I don't trust that USA Today thing; simply because I don't know anything about that polling company that they've mentioned and you shouldn't trust any polling agency that doesn't release accurate tables for that sort of thing.

Survey Monkey got the general election spot on last year, apparently.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/surveymonkey-was-the-other-winner-of-the-u-k-election/

Although to what extent that was a pure fluke or not remains to be seen.

Some of their cross tabs look a bit weirs, 16% of the sample are Guardian readers? I suppose, if they mean the website rather than the newspaper that could be reasonable...

[Suburbia]

I feel very bad for the family of MP Jo Cox (Labour). Very sad, very, very sad. On the other hand, I see Leave winning by a few points. If that's the case, PM Cameron will probably have to step aside for Boris Johnson or Michael Gove as PM and Tory leader. However, Johnson is very charismatic and could beat Corbyn in the PMQ's. However, people see Johnson as the British Trump. Imagine Prime Minister Johnson meeting with President Donald Trump.

[IceAgeComing]

Boris Johnson will not be Prime Minster; not matter the result of the referendum.

[ag]

Cameron already stated what they (Tory govt) want to negotiate with the EU as for the form of relations between EU-UK? Some sort of association? Free trade area maybe?

I mean, if there is no agreement post-Brexit, Britain is in for a very hard landing. Visas to travel cross-Channel, sharp reallocation of trade flows, huge financial crisis, massive expulsion of British citizens from Europe, etc., etc., etc. Of course there will be an agreement negotiated.

[Suburbia]

Boris Johnson will not be Prime Minster; not matter the result of the referendum.

I think he may. There is tension right now in the Conservative Party. I could see him, Osborne, May, or even a dark horse like Priti Patel, a Hindu MP to be a potential successor to Cameron.

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/priti-patel-who-top-tory-right-winger-tipped-be-face-brexit-campaign-1542619

[MaxQue]

Boris Johnson will not be Prime Minster; not matter the result of the referendum.

I think he may. There is tension right now in the Conservative Party. I could see him, Osborne, May, or even a dark horse like Priti Patel, a Hindu MP to be a potential successor to Cameron.

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/priti-patel-who-top-tory-right-winger-tipped-be-face-brexit-campaign-1542619

There is too much MPs hating Boris for him to be PM.

Conservatives use an hybrid method for electing leader, MPs vote on the candidates, by rounds, elimilating the lowest vote getter until there is only 2 candidates, which are sent on full membership election. So, you need consequent support among the MPs to reach the final step.

[Suburbia]

Boris Johnson will not be Prime Minster; not matter the result of the referendum.

I think he may. There is tension right now in the Conservative Party. I could see him, Osborne, May, or even a dark horse like Priti Patel, a Hindu MP to be a potential successor to Cameron.

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/priti-patel-who-top-tory-right-winger-tipped-be-face-brexit-campaign-1542619

There is too much MPs hating Boris for him to be PM.

Conservatives use an hybrid method for electing leader, MPs vote on the candidates, by rounds, elimilating the lowest vote getter until there is only 2 candidates, which are sent on full membership election. So, you need consequent support among the MPs to reach the final step.

A good dark horse would be Stephen Crabb. Young, handsome. He could lead the Tories for another generation.

[DL]

The problem for the Tories is that their members elect the leader in the final round and apparently the average age of card carrying Tory party members is something like 72... So to become leader you need to get voted in by a bunch of angry old eurosceptic men plus old ladies with blue hair who play bridge and eat cucumber sandwiches

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Cameron already stated what they (Tory govt) want to negotiate with the EU as for the form of relations between EU-UK? Some sort of association? Free trade area maybe?

I mean, if there is no agreement post-Brexit, Britain is in for a very hard landing. Visas to travel cross-Channel, sharp reallocation of trade flows, huge financial crisis, massive expulsion of British citizens from Europe, etc., etc., etc. Of course there will be an agreement negotiated.

Well as far as I know there is some time for negotiations should/must be provided before leaving the UE to negotiate both terms of leaving the EU and future relations. That is why I am asking, maybe Tories had not wanted to say anything/share their future vision to do not influence the results but maybe media know something because well, time is short.

[ChrisDR68]

I mean, if there is no agreement post-Brexit, Britain is in for a very hard landing. Visas to travel cross-Channel, sharp reallocation of trade flows, huge financial crisis, massive expulsion of British citizens from Europe, etc., etc., etc. Of course there will be an agreement negotiated.

Pure hyperbole.

I'm on another forum discussing this referendum and a couple of Remain posters have gone completely demented because their side are now behind in the polls.

What's been written above could have been written by George Osborne and he currently has zero credibility with the majority of the British people (and deservedly so).

It's worth remembering that the European Union is primarily a political project not an economic one (with the ultimate goal being a single European state). That very often gets lost in all the heated debates that have taken place over the last few weeks.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

But any further integration has to be done via referendum legally. There is no chance of being whisked into the (((superstate))) without our consent.

[Cassius]

Boris Johnson will not be Prime Minster; not matter the result of the referendum.

I think he may. There is tension right now in the Conservative Party. I could see him, Osborne, May, or even a dark horse like Priti Patel, a Hindu MP to be a potential successor to Cameron.

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/priti-patel-who-top-tory-right-winger-tipped-be-face-brexit-campaign-1542619

There is too much MPs hating Boris for him to be PM.

Conservatives use an hybrid method for electing leader, MPs vote on the candidates, by rounds, elimilating the lowest vote getter until there is only 2 candidates, which are sent on full membership election. So, you need consequent support among the MPs to reach the final step.

A good dark horse would be Stephen Crabb. Young, handsome. He could lead the Tories for another generation.

Crabb is definitely my preferred candidate at this stage.

[parochial boy]

I mean, if there is no agreement post-Brexit, Britain is in for a very hard landing. Visas to travel cross-Channel, sharp reallocation of trade flows, huge financial crisis, massive expulsion of British citizens from Europe, etc., etc., etc. Of course there will be an agreement negotiated.

Pure hyperbole.

I'm on another forum discussing this referendum and a couple of Remain posters have gone completely demented because their side are now behind in the polls.

What's been written above could have been written by George Osborne and he currently has zero credibility with the majority of the British people (and deservedly so).

It's worth remembering that the European Union is primarily a political project not an economic one (with the ultimate goal being a single European state). That very often gets lost in all the heated debates that have taken place over the last few weeks.

Both Macron and Schauble have indicated that if the UK wants any sort of deal, it is going to have to accept free movement, EU laws and will have to contribute to the budget.

I suppose they are lying like everyone on the remain side is?

Whereas the myths about £350m a week, or the EU setting 60% of British laws, or the millions of Turks allegedly about to descend on the country do not reflect at all on the integrity of the leave campaign.

[Angel of Death]

Unless there is a clear victory for one side or the other, there will now inevitably be a cloud over the outcome of the referendum as a result of this murder.